BAD DICE: the saga CONTINUES

Quote: SanchoPanza

The law of New Jersey regulating dice, whose precise specifications to the thousandths of an inch has been posted here, has never been challenged or even technically or legally questioned in its entire existence.

Ahigh is correct. A perfectly square die can be out of balance so who cares if they use a micrometer all day long and never use a dice balancing caliper correctly.

Quote: MathExtremist

In fact, I would be surprised if someone could exploit the (obviously much larger) inherent defects of the non-casino die manufacturing process over an 8 hour period. To test this, get a stick of 5 drug store dice, the kind with dimpled pips and rounded edges.

Three words: Cash. Game. Yahtzee.

Quote: Bohemian

Ahigh is correct. A perfectly square die can be out of balance so who cares if they use a micrometer all day long and never use a dice balancing caliper correctly.

The law specifies far more than squareness and using a micrometer. Checking the actual text should prove useful for both believers and non-believers.

Quote: Mission146

Three words: Cash. Game. Yahtzee.

I'm not talking about playing yahtzee on a rug or backgammon using a dice cup. There are known dice-cheating techniques there. I'm talking about whether anyone can, within 8 hours and without otherwise attempting to control the dice, discover and exploit bias in drug store dice sufficient to overcome the edge in a craps game.

Do you think you could? An empirical study was done on one such die and it was found to be significantly biased, but could you detect and exploit this within eight hours?
http://dicephysics.info/0107.htm

I again refer to the guys running a huge dice tower for random results for online play-by-computer boardgames. There's a huge source of data on 'cheap' dice being rolled millions of times.

Quote: Ahigh

But what do the laws say about the rigidity of the pips relative to the rigidity of the rest of the die? What do they say about the symmetry of the holes drilled in the cubes? What do they say about dice that exhibit outcomes that are statistically unlikely to be that from fair dice?
I'm saying they say nothing about these things. Measurement and less often balance are the only things that are ever discussed by the law. But it's conceivable that other things play a role in fairness when it comes to the outcomes, but the outcomes are not monitored at all on a long-term scale.

That is baloney. Even a cursory reading of the law posted here would show complete and clear answers to the first two questions. The refusal even to consult the statute is noted. The third question is open to anyone's study. Maybe the believers hereabouts should start recording results in a standard double-blind study.
No one, including posters who have presented all sorts of accusations about certain casinos and certain sources of dice, has been able to proceed anywhere with their assertions. The obvious situation prevails. Neither the businesses nor 99.9 percent of customers nor regulators have displayed in the overall sense of the term the slightest unease about balanced or unbalanced dice.

Quote: MathExtremist

I'm not talking about playing yahtzee on a rug or backgammon using a dice cup. There are known dice-cheating techniques there. I'm talking about whether anyone can, within 8 hours and without otherwise attempting to control the dice, discover and exploit bias in drug store dice sufficient to overcome the edge in a craps game.

Do you think you could? An empirical study was done on one such die and it was found to be significantly biased, but could you detect and exploit this within eight hours?
http://dicephysics.info/0107.htm

I do not think I could, I was just making a joke.

Quote: SanchoPanza

That is baloney. Even a cursory reading of the law posted here would show complete and clear answers to the first two questions. The refusal even to consult the statute is noted. The third question is open to anyone's study. Maybe the believers hereabouts should start recording results in a standard double-blind study.
No one, including posters who have presented all sorts of accusations about certain casinos and certain sources of dice, has been able to proceed anywhere with their assertions. The obvious situation prevails. Neither the businesses nor 99.9 percent of customers nor regulators have displayed in the overall sense of the term the slightest unease about balanced or unbalanced dice.

http://www.state.nj.us/casinos/actreg/reg/docs_chapter46/c46s01sec15to19b.pdf

I saw nothing on consistent rigidity. I saw nothing on the dice being symmetrical (IE: seven holes drilled in each side would be symmetrical). I saw nothing that the dice must past any tests to assert that the outcomes over large samples of throws must not exhibit bias.

It's not bologna. I'm just pointing out that all the laws describe a casino die and talk about things other than what it would take to create a more fair die.

Even the casino logos on the dice can impart imbalance.

And I'm not even saying it's enough to matter, I'm just saying that the laws don't ensure fair dice. The laws ensure dice that you find in a casino.

The cheap chinese dice follow all these laws and the outcomes are less fair. But they are just as legal in New Jersey!

Quote: Ahigh

And I'm not even saying it's enough to matter, I'm just saying that the laws don't ensure fair dice.

So if it isn't enough to matter, how then in the real world would in be unfair?

Quote: MathExtremist

I'm talking about whether anyone can, within 8 hours and without otherwise attempting to control the dice, discover and exploit bias in drug store dice sufficient to overcome the edge in a craps game.

Heck, Persi Diaconis had two grad student assistants and eight weeks and a high quality gaffed die and they couldn't overcome recording error much less house edge.

Remember of course that if you have five dice in use that start out brand new, you have to get two dice that are detectably "off" (by you) but not detectably "off" by the experienced pit boss. Then you have to choose each of those two out of the five, learn the exact bias, exploit it and exploit it sufficiently to overcome the house edge.... totally absurd to even comtemplate!

You are better off bedding the cocktail waitress that night and getting her to bring you more drinks the next day. More likely to succeed and certainly more fun.

Quote: Ahigh

I saw nothing on the dice being symmetrical (IE: seven holes drilled in each side would be symmetrical).

In case it is too difficult to understand specifications like this: "each spot shall be placed on the die by drilling into the surface of the cube and filling the drilled out portion with a compound which is equal in weight to the weight of the cellulose drilled out and which forms a permanent bond with the cellulose cube, and shall extend into the cube exactly the same distance as every other spot extends into the cube to an accuracy tolerance of .0004 of an inch," that and the accompanying requirements mean that the pips are filled with the same substance used in the dice.

Quote: Ahigh

and I saw nothing that the dice must past any tests to assert that the outcomes over large samples of throws must not exhibit bias.

Seeing as how the specifications for the construction of the cube and the pips are so clear to virtually all involved (except for the 0.01 percent), such testing would be superfluous pending a realistic challenge.

Quote: Ahigh

I'm just pointing out that all the laws describe a casino die and talk about things other than what it would take to create a more fair die.

Ain't gonna happen. Don't like it? Nobody is forcing anyone to play the game.

Quote: Ahigh

Even the casino logos on the dice can impart imbalance.

Right, always favor three-letter casinos over five- or six-letter operations.

Quote: Ahigh

I'm just saying that the laws don't ensure fair dice.

The laws ensure fair dice to the satisfaction of thousands of people who transact millions of dollars daily.

Quote: Ahigh

The cheap chinese dice follow all these laws and the outcomes are less fair. But they are just as legal in New Jersey!

And you know this how? If the dice meet the details laid out in the 44 pages of the law dealing with General Provisions and Physical Characteristics, why not?

The best attempt to manufacture a 100% fair die would have exactly seven holes drilled in each face and different colored pips would be used on each face and would have no casino logos or even serial numbers deforming the face of the die.

As it stands, there is non-uniform rigidity in all casino dice that follow these laws.

Using your wording, "in case it's hard for you to understand" legal regulation casino dice are not symmetrical. Each face has a different number of pips.

Each of those pips is filled with a material that, while it may have the same density, it does not have the same rigidity and therefore it does not have the same bounce characteristics.

I am pointing out that different materials with the same density can have different restitution coefficients and none of this is accounted for in any laws. In fact, I have not even seen a discussion of this facet. All the discussions are centered around "it's good enough" and "errors made by students are more significant."

Hardly proof that a zero edge bet cannot be affected by the unfairness of casino dice.

It is even possible that the six face and one face end up being more common as a result of less expensive materials used. Whatever the cause is, the fact remains that there is no proof that following New Jersey laws leads to a 100% fair dice within reasonable tolerances.

Quote: Ahigh

I may need to remind people, but I don't really have all that much interest in this whole biased dice thing.

This is a familiar tune. As soon as the challenges mount to your dice controlling skill, or your dice influencing, or now your interest in biased dice, you suddenly don't have that much interest anymore.

Perhaps your interest should have stopped before you took part in more than 40+ pages of discussion of something that few but you and the masked desperado and some other newcomer who arrived after the masked man was told to leave believe.

Quote: AlanMendelson

This is a familiar tune. As soon as the challenges mount to your dice controlling skill, or your dice influencing, or now your interest in biased dice, you suddenly don't have that much interest anymore.

Perhaps your interest should have stopped before you took part in more than 40+ pages of discussion of something that few but you and the masked desperado and some other newcomer who arrived after the masked man was told to leave believe.

I think you misunderstand. I do work in things that don't interest me personally because nobody else will.

If I were like you, I would assign someone else to do the work.

I think the whole thing .. the whole idea of biased dice as described by Harley is stupid and I have since the beginning.

Look at my you tube video on the subject.

But, at the same time, you cannot deny that there are facets of this subject that have merit. I am only following through on the research on this topic as the first person to cry out "BULLSHIT."

Maybe you aren't aware of the fact that I am not a biased dice proponent. I am merely presenting the results of my work as part of the process to DEBUNK the entire theory.

Then when I present evidence that SUPPORTS the biased dice theorists, all of a sudden now I am a guy who thinks this stuff is interesting to me as in this is something that I am thinking I want to do to exploit?

No, you need to understand that I'm just doing the due diligence that other people like yourself don't have the stamina or diligence to follow through with. If somebody else did all this stuff before me or if someone else were capable to contemplate all of the various aspects that could possibly lead up to situations where legal casino dice could exhibit heavy 6 and 1 face outcomes, I wouldn't have to do anything. And dice would already be made to be more fair.

But there's nobody else to do the work that I'm doing, and as evidenced by the popularity of this thread, OTHER people are interested in the subject.

Follow up and read the thread on my forum where I explain how disappointed that I am that the thread is so popular.

http://forum.goodshooter.com/topic9.html

The Wizard has gone down that same road too, and I sympathize with him that he doesn't want his forum to have all this crap on there.

But if you want to shut these conspiracy theorists up, you need to do a better job to make dice that are more OBVIOUSLY fair, and right now, you JUST DO NOT HAVE THAT.

Quote: Ahigh

If I were like you, I would assign someone else to do the work.

Someday you might also reach a position where you could assign someone else to do the work while you seek growth opportunties for your company.

In the meantime you are just trying to establish yourself as being the king and know it all of Las Vegas craps, and frankly you are fighting some big battles over small pieces of territory that few care about. Give it a rest. Because I think the rest of us are tired.

EDITED TO ADD:

Since you added to your original post let me just add this:

YOU DID ALL OF THAT WORK, THOSE CHARTS, THAT ANALYSIS BECAUSE YOU THINK HARLEY'S POINTS ABOUT BIASED DICE ARE STUPID. YOU DO DUE DILIGENCE OVER THINGS YOU CONSIDER STUPID? WHAT IS STUPID? Perhaps stupid is what stupid does, just like in the movie.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Someday you might also reach a position where you could assign someone else to do the work while you seek growth opportunties for your company.

In the meantime you are just trying to establish yourself as being the king and know it all of Las Vegas craps, and frankly you are fighting some big battles over small pieces of territory that few care about. Give it a rest. Because I think the rest of us are tired.

I will say it again, these threads don't get popular just from what I have to say. It's other people that get into this bullshit, not me. I'm just here to do the work that nobody else is doing to determine the truth and HOPEFULLY bring the whole subject to a close.

How about I assign you to do the work? Do you think you can answer all the conspiracy theorists questions?

You can't just say "BULLSHIT" and have them shut up.

I believe the right way to go is to make efforts to make the dice more fair and then they will have nothing else to say.

As long as people aren't interested to make the dice more fair, it raises more questions than anything IMO.

And that supports the theorists, rather than to discredit them, no matter how earnestly you want it to go away, it won't.

Quote: AlanMendelson

YOU DID ALL OF THAT WORK, THOSE CHARTS, THAT ANALYSIS BECAUSE YOU THINK HARLEY'S POINTS ABOUT BIASED DICE ARE STUPID. YOU DO DUE DILIGENCE OVER THINGS YOU CONSIDER STUPID? WHAT IS STUPID? Perhaps stupid is what stupid does, just like in the movie.

Yes, and in fact if you followed the timeline you would ALREADY KNOW THIS.

Thu Jul 07, 2011 8:21 am:

Quote: Ahigh

I hope this helps dispel the rumors of the weekend dice. And of course just because I don't believe in them doesn't mean they don't exist. But if there is anyone who can find a table that uses them often enough, JUST LAY ACROSS AS MUCH MONEY AS YOU HAVE AND PRESS UNTIL THEY TAKE THE DICE OFF THE TABLE, and THAT will show the house why it's stupid to even try such a trick. IE: put your money where your beliefs are and if you're right, you'll deserve the smug feeling you receive in return. Then you can tell us about your experience or keep milking that cow until you pulled into the back room or what-not.

Read that whole thread. Here's the reality: you are far far behind on this age old debate.

Quote: Ahigh

"BULLSHIT"

Ahigh you lead the board for obscenity. I'm tired of you and your flip flopping of positions and lack of credibility as well as authority. Now it is me who is blocking you.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Ahigh you lead the board for obscenity. I'm tired of you and your flip flopping of positions and lack of credibility as well as authority. Now it is me who is blocking you.

Nice response. And yeah, real obscene there.

Ahigh I recently sent you A PM early morning time, basically asking how to post a photo. Of course I often ramble on incoherently I think I did just that, probably confusing you. I often leave people with nothing to say but, "umm okay". possibility you didn't see it or had nothin' to say?

Quote: AxelWolf

Ahigh I recently sent you A PM early morning time, basically asking how to post a photo. Of course I often ramble on incoherently I think I did just that, probably confusing you. I often leave people with nothing to say but, "umm okay". possibility you didn't see it or had nothin' to say?

It wasn't a PM. I had already answered it when you posted this.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/info/help/13897-how-do-i/#post240052

Quote: SanchoPanza

In case it is too difficult to understand specifications like this: "each spot shall be placed on the die by drilling into the surface of the cube and filling the drilled out portion with a compound which is equal in weight to the weight of the cellulose drilled out and which forms a permanent bond with the cellulose cube, and shall extend into the cube exactly the same distance as every other spot extends into the cube to an accuracy tolerance of .0004 of an inch," that and the accompanying requirements mean that the pips are filled with the same substance used in the dice.

Seeing as how the specifications for the construction of the cube and the pips are so clear to virtually all involved (except for the 0.01 percent), such testing would be superfluous pending a realistic challenge.

SanchoPanza, to clarify I believe you are maybe quoting New Jersey laws, but I think it is safe to say Ahigh and Harley have pointed out that no such laws exist in Nevada. Furthermore, the bolded part of your statement is incorrect as the pips are not made from the same substance as the cubes. Any "Dice how it is made-pedia" will confirm this as well as tests Harley and his research team have done. See pics on the link:

Quote:

It is in no way our job to say why dice are unbalanced, however close observation will show you why too many Dice are Unbalanced. The pips (white spots) are made of a different material than the plastic colored cube itself. Too often this will create heavier weight on the 5/6 side of the die as compared to the opposite side 1/2. This gives an 11:3 ratio of weighted material that creates the imbalance and bias on a craps table.

To demonstrate, we have melted a group of casino dice obtained in Las Vegas - you too can do this at home:

http://crapsadvantageplayers.blogspot.com/search/label/Melted%20Dice

Quote: Bohemian

Quote: SanchoPanza

In case it is too difficult to understand specifications like this: "each spot shall be placed on the die by drilling into the surface of the cube and filling the drilled out portion with a compound which is equal in weight to the weight of the cellulose drilled out and which forms a permanent bond with the cellulose cube, and shall extend into the cube exactly the same distance as every other spot extends into the cube to an accuracy tolerance of .0004 of an inch," that and the accompanying requirements mean that the pips are filled with the same substance used in the dice.

Seeing as how the specifications for the construction of the cube and the pips are so clear to virtually all involved (except for the 0.01 percent), such testing would be superfluous pending a realistic challenge.

SanchoPanza, to clarify I believe you are maybe quoting New Jersey laws, but I think it is safe to say Ahigh and Harley have pointed out that no such laws exist in Nevada. Furthermore, the bolded part of your statement is incorrect as the pips are not made from the same substance as the cubes. Any "Dice how it is made-pedia" will confirm this as well as tests Harley and his research team have done. See pics on the link:





http://crapsadvantageplayers.blogspot.com/search/label/Melted%20Dice

Yes, I trust information on dice from a site called "crapsadvantageplayers" that can't even afford the $15 for their own domain name and the writers think an unbalanced set up dice favoring 5/6, creating way more 10, 11 and 12's than should be, wouldn't be destroyed by players and put a casino out of business.

ZCore13

Quote: Ahigh

Hardly proof that a zero edge bet cannot be affected by the unfairness of casino dice.

It's the other way around. You have provided no proof that any bet (theoretical edge notwithstanding) is practically affected by any inherent manufacturing defects in dice. The strongest evidence that any slight bias in casino dice doesn't matter during their eight-hour lifespan is the fact that the game behaves the way it's intended to behave. What empirical evidence -- at all -- do you have to buttress your supposition that allegedly biased dice are providing a meaningful change to the expected probabilities or outcomes in craps?

In the absence of any such evidence, I submit that any slight defect in a die, such as allowed by the NJ regulations, is not sufficient to detectably alter the expected probabilities of the game. If so, I submit that such slightly defective dice are fair and unbiased for practical purposes. Your insistence on perfection in the manufacturing process is not only misguided but utterly unnecessary. Sometimes good enough is just that: good enough.

ME sometimes in my business we have an expression that also applies to the point you made about dice:

"Yes, there is a difference, but the difference makes no difference."

SARCASM ON

Right.... That's how we do things here, we just say "oh it doesn't matter because it's small."

SARCASM OFF

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/video-poker/13876-sometimes-im-not-sure-if-the-wizard-is-being-ironic/#post239607

Quote: Bohemian

The bolded part of your statement is incorrect as the pips are not made from the same substance as the cubes.

What are the two substances? And which which casino's (if any) dice are shown in harley's blog post? And what temperature was reached? Real scientific? No objective observer would venture to say that.
Besides, the OP stated and reiterated the blanket statement about no standards for dice anywhere. That has been shown to be entirely erroneous twice here in the last few months. Instead of retraction, we get repetition.

Quote: MathExtremist

I don't believe there is any exploitable, practical bias in a casino craps game despite whatever bias may exist in today's casino dice. In order to exploit such a bias, one would need to identify it, quantify it, and wager properly on it, all during the eight-hour time allotted for those dice to be used.

I could also copy a number of other quotes from MathExtremist on this issue--all of which I agree.

I am astounded that there is this much discussion about "bias dice" and I am somewhat hesitant to contribute to further discussion--since I am firmly of the opinion that bias dice that can be exploited by either the player or the casino does not exist.

I am not suggesting that all dice is "perfect" by whatever ultra-strict measurements and standards one may wish to apply. I am saying it is "perfect enough."

But since Ahigh has devoted such time and energy to this subject, I want to at least pursue some opinions/beliefs/attitudes that have been expressed here.

Aaron/Ahigh--I have tried to follow your many remarks about bias dice or bad dice. I apologize if I have not paraphrased accurately in summarizing a few of your remarks, or if I have drawn conclusions from your remarks that you did not intend--but:

1. You seem to say that the regulations (of gaming commissions) and state statutes do not go far enough to guarantee that the dice which are used are fair to the player. In other words, the lack of adequate regulatory control facilitates the use of bias and unfair dice by casinos. Is this what you are saying and do you believe this?

2. Are you saying, as well, that as a consequence of inadequate regulatory control, the casinos are purposefully and intentionally interjecting bias and unfair dice into their games to their advantage? If so, then I presume you believe that the nature of the bias in the dice is favorable to the casino--correct? (Or why would the casinos interject the bias dice into their games?)

3. Regardless whether any casinos are actively engaged in interjecting bias or unfair dice into their games, is the nature of the "bad" dice always the same? Do the defect(s) that you believe are present in the dice contribute to a consistent and similar bias?

4. Alternatively, are there a number of possible/likely defects in dice that contribute to a variety of different biases?

5. If bias or bad dice does exist and is being used, what then, exactly, is the bias? In other words, how is the dice "skewed?" And if, indeed, the dice is skewed, how do you account for the fact that not all players play the same way--such that bias dice may favor one player while not favoring another player?

6. Finally, Aaron, how do you respond to MathExtremist that one cannot exploit bias dice (during the eight-hour active life of such dice)?

Obviously, these questions are not restricted to Ahigh. Certainly anyone can respond.

Just a comment on the melted dice, I'm no scientist but where does it say two different materials can't have the same weight but different melting points?

Quote: Jimbo

1. You seem to say that the regulations (of gaming commissions) and state statutes do not go far enough to guarantee that the dice which are used are fair to the player. In other words, the lack of adequate regulatory control facilitates the use of bias and unfair dice by casinos. Is this what you are saying and do you believe this?

I absolutely do believe and have believed this since 2013.

Quote: Jimbo

2. Are you saying, as well, that as a consequence of inadequate regulatory control, the casinos are purposefully and intentionally interjecting bias and unfair dice into their games to their advantage? If so, then I presume you believe that the nature of the bias in the dice is favorable to the casino--correct? (Or why would the casinos interject the bias dice into their games?)

This is a simple conclusion, and the answer is yes. The first time a die is thrown, it is biased. Casinos inject bias into the table by using dice for a period of time that enables deformation altering fair outcomes. If a stick of dice is "earning" it will remain in play longer. If you agree with this assertion, you cannot believe that casinos are not doing what you are asking if they do in question 2.

Quote: Jimbo

3. Regardless whether any casinos are actively engaged in interjecting bias or unfair dice into their games, is the nature of the "bad" dice always the same? Do the defect(s) that you believe are present in the dice contribute to a consistent and similar bias?

Of course not. I am unaware of any intentional efforts to "load" the dice. Merely that casinos will employ a stick of dice longer providing that there is no problem with how the table is operating. I have called gaming after being told that a stick of dice had been in play for over a week because they ran out of dice. I saw aces three times in a row before asking questions and looking at that particular stick of dice.

Quote: Jimbo

4. Alternatively, are there a number of possible/likely defects in dice that contribute to a variety of different biases?

One thing I have failed to see mention in all of my research is the effect of the restitution coefficient between the pips and the remainder of the die's mass. The pips are known to be harder, even if they are the same density. I'm uncertain that having vasty different restitution coefficients for pips versus the transparent part of the dice would produce an exploitable bias nor do I even have a hunch for what the bias might be under the assumption that the pips are "stiffer" than the transparent part of the die. But I do know that I've never heard a discussion about this.

If you can imagine being at the factory and making perfect spheres from the two different same-density substances for the dice, the pip-substance (white part) should bounce at the same height as the transparent substance (red part). I mean imagine two 3/4 spheres .. one made out of "pip stuff" and one made out of "transparent stuff." Do they bounce at the same height on a hard floor? If not, what does this imply?

Quote: Jimbo

5. If bias or bad dice does exist and is being used, what then, exactly, is the bias? In other words, how is the dice "skewed?" And if, indeed, the dice is skewed, how do you account for the fact that not all players play the same way--such that bias dice may favor one player while not favoring another player?

I'm not certain how I could answer this question, except to say you would have to measure the outcomes over a sufficiently large number of samples on a real table in order to even have a hunch. But it would take more scientific process to CALCULATE that bias including necessary research to quantify bias as a function of, for example, different restitution coefficients in the event that this made any difference at all.

There is some assumption that keeping the densities the same in the non-symmetrical components of the dice is sufficient to maintain even distributions of outcomes.

Quote: Jimbo

6. Finally, Aaron, how do you respond to MathExtremist that one cannot exploit bias dice (during the eight-hour active life of such dice)?

If you modify the statement to conceded that it is generally too time-consuming in order to monetize, I'll throw in the towel there.

Quote: Jimbo

Obviously, these questions are not restricted to Ahigh. Certainly anyone can respond.

Sorry I took so long to answer.

dont know how many times i have to post this

Quote: heatmap

dont know how many times i have to post this

those are NOT dice used in a casino
try again

Quote: 7craps

those are NOT dice used in a casino
try again

This company doesn’t exist any more and they were in casinos. I’m not saying they are used in casinos today but it should be known that they have had these types of dice which are also influenced by magnets and are made of plastic which was created long before most modern casinos

It is known. It has been known.

Who wants to make those two spheres and see if one bounces higher than the other?

Aaron: Good to see you posting. Still playing in Vegas?