Next show is the March 11th show

Quote: Harley

SanchoPanza .... that's good stuff for New Jersey ... but what is the risk reward of ever getting caught ?? ... we have already seen how Caesar's can add $2 million to it's bottom line in 1 month for what risk ?

Are you implying that they added that sum thanks to crooked dice, or if not, just what is the implication?

Quote: Ahigh

Not the math, not the laws, but the actual dice. The dice and how they affect actual pays!

... the die is what creates the edge, not the math.

Quote of the decade !!

Quote: Harley

Quote of the decade !!

Not even close try MONEY TALKS AND BULLSHIT WALKS

that is so last century .... what AHigh is saying is revolutionary

Quote: Harley

that is so last century .... what AHigh is saying is revolutionary

CORRECTIVE EDIT : Harley, you misspelled delusional .

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Quote: Buzzard

Not even close try MONEY TALKS AND BULLSHIT WALKS

Quote: Ahigh

Shown here are mounts that I have not previously disclosed that have nearly zero friction and reveal even the most slightest imbalance. These mounts were invented by Steve Cotton himself (not by me).

http://www.precisionmicromachining.com/management.html#steve

Steve was very passionate to get a fully unencumbered system to detect imbalance. His experience in the watchmaking industry has a similar necessity for balancing parts in his watches.

If you take the bet, you're betting that dice made in mexico cannot have any detectable imbalance as detected by a guy who has been in the business of making precision machinery for 30 years. GOOD LUCK IF YOU TAKE MY BET!

But you absolutely know that there is certainty that each of the dice are 100.0000% fair, correct? Because they just have to be, right? I mean even if some of them aren't fair, you can bet you can find a pair that have no detectable bias and bring them to me.

Is your $400 ready to bet?

Well, how about it, Buzzard? Is your money talking or are you perpetrating the other thing?

You always say, "it's not about the money."

Perhaps the kids will be getting even more toys from "Uncle Buzz."

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How do I block a member? Ahigh's posts are becoming so unbelievably stupid I can't take it anymore

Never mind I figured it out. Sure he's a nice guy but he has issues

ahigh, i feel sorry for you. you actually felt the need to take pictures of actual $100 bills to brag now? please... this is depressing.

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There you guys go. I just took it all down just to make you all happy.

Don't you feel so much better?

There's no bet. You guys are right about everything.

All the dice being used in Vegas are 100% fair. It was all just a big joke of mine.

Resume your normal lives.

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What did you say?

Quote: Beardgoat

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What did you say?

I said you are a magnificent person that I admire very much and thank you so much for sharing your thoughts with me.

When I think pleasant thoughts in my head, I am reminded what a great person Beardgoat is and how much he has helped to make my life more wonderful.

If it wasn't for this guy, my life would be terrible.

What a great guy for helping me so much!!!

Quote: sodawater

ahigh, i feel sorry for you. you actually felt the need to take pictures of actual $100 bills to brag now? please... this is depressing.

You want to know what's depressing? The fact that you can't stop reading my posts and making comments like the comments that you make. You would think that at some point you would get something out of it besides just having trash talk responses and going in one ear and out the other.

I'm not trying to have a hater group, but if I were, you'd be in charge of it.

Quote: Ahigh

You want to know what's depressing? The fact that you can't stop reading my posts and making comments like the comments that you make.

First me and now soda.. We just can't stop commenting
on your posts..

Quote: tupp

Well, how about it, Buzzard? Is your money talking or are you perpetrating the other thing?

You always say, "it's not about the money."

Perhaps the kids will be getting even more toys from "Uncle Buzz."

Given up on dice setting have you ?? I am willing to repeat my last bet against any dice setter. He/she may use any imbalanced dice
that come out of a new pack minutes before the bet. Ahigh can measure all he wants. The results will still be RANDOM !

Careful... they can be random AND biased.

Quote: thecesspit

Careful... they can be random AND biased.

I am reminded off college basketball games in late 1950's. Bookie I worked for also bet college games heavily. When ragged about it, Henry said " Hey, mighta been fixed the way I bet ! "

I'll take my chances.

Quote: Buzzard

Given up on dice setting have you ??

No. I almost always set the dice.

Quote: Buzzard

I am willing to repeat my last bet against any dice setter.

Exactly which bet is that?

Are you admitting that some dice are unbalanced?

" Are you admitting that some dice are unbalanced? " I never said they were not ! ! ! NEVER

But it don't make a difference in any significant way !

Quote: Buzzard

But it don't make a difference in any significant way !

This was my position a month ago. It may in fact be a true statement!

But something is causing all my reads to be very coincidentally aligned more towards the expected distribution of a theoretically biased (for the purposes of increasing the hold) dice than to fair dice.

Somehow.

Just as Harley has suggested.

I don't know how yet.

But yes, somehow.

AND OF COURSE IT COULD BE JUST RANDOM. Yes, it could.

Very good for those of you who point this out as well.

Tell tupp that when you get a chance, PLEASE.

Quote: Buzzard

" Are you admitting that some dice are unbalanced? " I never said they were not ! ! ! NEVER But it don't make a difference in any significant way !

Okay.

Now. in regards to the bet that you mentioned, please explain.

The same bet you just lost $100 on. DUH !

I am not sure what it was, just figured SOOPOO had the best of it, as usual.

Quote: Buzzard

The same bet you just lost $100 on. DUH !

Sometimes it's hard to tell, amongst all of your yelled challenges.

Quote: Buzzard

I am not sure what it was, just figured SOOPOO had the best of it, as usual.

Okay. Let's go by the original deal that SOOPOO and I discussed -- the bet moving forward is dependent on me finding a qualified shooter, but why don't we make it a little more interesting (and reduce your monetary risk at the same time)?

I will bet you $100 that a shooter can make 15% or less sevens. If you win, you get the $100. However, if I win, you don't have to pay me a cent, but you cannot post on the WOV forum (nor on a WOV profile blog) for a period of one year from the day that the results of the bet are announced.

You have no monetary risk. How about it?

The chance of the dice being heavier on the six face and the one face more than the 2, 3, 4, and 5 faces is 6 choose 2 or 1 in 15.

Anybody want to take a free bet against me where I:

* Pick the casino to observe 400 rolls
* Pick the time to observe 400 rolls
* Observe the dice for a little while before deciding to start my roll records
* Have a neutral third party observe?

I'm not really great with math, but I think this would be like I pay you $10 if you win and you pay me $140 if I win.

We could do $5 and $70 if you want less risk. Of course I'd like a chance to win some serious dough. But this is a fair bet for anyone who wants some income to demonstrate that I can't find any biased dice out there and/or that I've just been lucky when I recorded rolls at Fiesta Henderson. It could just be a 1 in 15 luck thing!

How many rolls ?

" I'm not really great with math, but I think this would be like I pay you $10 if you win and you pay me $140 if I win."

ROFLMAO

Quote: Buzzard

How many rolls ?

Depends on how long the shooter thinks he/she can last. Probably 100-200 rolls.

After doing the challenge and feeling the pressure, even more so than at any casino I've played at. I'd say 200 maybe too much. If you want your shooter focused I'd stick to no more than 100 throws. At the end of it all it really is an emotional game....

Quote: Buzzard

ROFLMAO

Glad you liked that one.

This is going way back...

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/11372-another-hardway-video/6/#post184183

Somebody do the math for 200 , 3, 4, 500 if bored. Thanks

too much spring cleaning
I'm bored

Quote: nickolay411

After doing the challenge and feeling the pressure, even more so than at any casino I've played at. I'd say 200 maybe too much. If you want your shooter focused I'd stick to no more than 100 throws. At the end of it all it really is an emotional game....

I respect you for participating in that challenge.. But I have one question...


If the emotions, skill , and focus are the key elements to throwing the dice, why can a drunk amateur pick up the bones and throw them better than most DIs? Are they totally focused? You could do that challenge 10 times over, and I believe you would get that same result about 7 out of 10 times..( I mean no disrespect in saying that)

Second, I believe that 200 rolls was pretty decent for that challenge.. I would have said to do more... I believe that most DIs curve their belief in dice influence to that one random instance (which is probably 30 rolls or so) and that's what they base their stance on...

But I applaud your efforts.. And keep on throwing.. I do think you have a decent throw.

Quote: TheWolf713

I respect you for participating in that challenge.. But I have one question...


If the emotions, skill , and focus are the key elements to throwing the dice, why can a drunk amateur pick up the bones and throw them better than most DIs? Are they totally focused? You could do that challenge 10 times over, and I believe you would get that same result about 7 out of 10 times..( I mean no disrespect in saying that)

Second, I believe that 200 rolls was pretty decent for that challenge.. I would have said to do more... I believe that most DIs curve their belief in dice influence to that one random instance (which is probably 30 rolls or so) and that's what they base their stance on...

But I applaud your efforts.. And keep on throwing.. I do think you have a decent throw.

Hey The Wolf713,

I actually have a lot to say about the whole experience. I hope to have time to write that post soon. The reason a drunk amateur can pick up the bones and throw them well is because the dice were designed to be random and that's the result one could expect. But to the drunk amateur those single events or instances happen infrequently. The end goal is to be able to reproduce that effect time and time again... I learned a lot form this challenge that will push me to continue to strive to be a better DI. And I look forward to doing another challenge when I believe I am more prepared. I don't mean to beat a dead horse by comparing DI to a world recognized sport. But in competition archery they only shoot about 70 arrows... That is why I'd like to see a shorter roll challenge even if that means setting the rules to achieve a lower percentage of sevens than the established 15%. One's focus can deteriorate quickly when under a lot of stress. But please don't confuse this an excuse for my bad performance the other day. Thank you for the kind words about my throw, I know I will need to continue working on it to see better end results.

Quote: nickolay411

Hey The Wolf713,

I actually have a lot to say about the whole experience. I hope to have time to write that post soon. The reason a drunk amateur can pick up the bones and throw them well is because the dice were designed to be random and that's the result one could expect. But to the drunk amateur those single events or instances happen infrequently. The end goal is to be able to reproduce that effect time and time again... I learned a lot form this challenge that will push me to continue to strive to be a better DI. And I look forward to doing another challenge when I believe I am more prepared. I don't mean to beat a dead horse by comparing DI to a world recognized sport. But in competition archery they only shoot about 70 arrows... That is why I'd like to see a shorter roll challenge even if that means setting the rules to achieve a lower percentage of sevens than the established 15%. One's focus can deteriorate quickly when under a lot of stress. But please don't confuse this an excuse for my bad performance the other day. Thank you for the kind words about my throw, I know I will need to continue working on it to see better end results.

I respect that..

I was thankful to only have to chuck the bones 28 times to win my two bucks. A mere eighth of the throws you had to endure.

If I had thrown them 200 times, I would have been tired by 200. I've done the SOOPOO challenge successfully twice and filmed it (of course with no money or pressure on it). Randomly you can beat it one in 3 tries, IIRC.

"Tracking the bias of the cube" means what, exactly? And at what point do you conclude that a dice is biased. Understand the meaning of the word bias and take a damned statistics course, please.

(1) You can't prove that the cube has bias over a short number of rolls. I have yet to see any test, any collection of rolls, or anything that shows that a dice has a verifiable bias. And yet, that easy to do. Take a frickin die and roll it enough time on a crap table to show it has a bias. Hell, bring five people to one of your broadcast events and have them and throw one dice at a time, and then have another 5 people throw them back. At 10 seconds a throw over five die, you could have 10K throws in less than 6 hours. That *may* be proof enough. Keep throwing dice. Prove that they are biased. Because that is the ONLY way you are going to show proof that REAL dice are biased.

(2) Even if a face has less area or more weight doesn't mean that that face will appear more or less often as a result. I have yet to see a study or mathematical proof that shows that heavier face results in more results for other numbers or that numbers. What is the frequency? Where is the science? Please. That would be simple to prove. Take a die, alter it, and show the bias. Then show that there exist dice in actual casinos that are the same way. That would be easy to do. There are retired dice that you can buy (yeah, the holes are cut out) at any casino shop. But some of these are "fully used dice". You should be able to measure the faces and see if there are any appreciable differences in area.

Until I see proof otherwise then, I will state that cubes of dice are not biased and act like a random number generator.

When someone who "can beat the game of craps" shows up to an event and say that he wins with an illegal throw, well then, that takes *all* of his credibility away.

If you want to get philosophical on me, reality is what has happened. The future you can only model. You can choose to model it based on what you see, or you can choose to model it on the math. The problem is that you can't prove that what you see isn't random nor outside the mathematical model, at all. I am waiting for a set of rolls that prove otherwise.

There are three or four other threads out there that prove casino (online) cheating. They ran enough samples to show that the odds of events occuring were quadrillions to one. This is the kind of evidence you need to prove the statement that dice are biased. Heck, I'd even accept 10,000:1

Yeah, am I pissed off. Yeah. Because there is another yahoo who has yet to beat the game of craps who has bought into the hoopla that Craps is a game that can be beaten because somehow the dice are unfair. The math stares them in the face that shows that indeed, the dice are not proven to be biased and yet, he goes on stating that indeed, "tracking the bias" is the way to beat craps. And there are people in this forum who are buying into the bull.

Quote: nickolay411

And I look forward to doing another challenge when I believe I am more prepared. I don't mean to beat a dead horse by comparing DI to a world recognized sport. But in competition archery they only shoot about 70 arrows... That is why I'd like to see a shorter roll challenge even if that means setting the rules to achieve a lower percentage of sevens than the established 15%. One's focus can deteriorate quickly when under a lot of stress. But please don't confuse this an excuse for my bad performance the other day. Thank you for the kind words about my throw,


I know I will need to continue working on it to see better end results.

Hey nick! Thanks again for stepping up to the plate! I thought that I had started the slow process successfully of showing you the light as to the folly of DI, but I guess I failed....
Mike has already established a 7 roll challenge, where if you roll 0 7's you win, 1 7 it is a tie, and 2 7's you lose. The beauty of the Wiz's challenges is that you can stop after any multiple of 7 rolls if you are 'losing focus'. I will gladly let you do this challenge, either in Aaron's palace if he would have us again, or at a real casino. I'll let you know when I'll be able to make it to Vegas again.... I had such a good time despite negative variance, I hope to come back the end of April, or maybe for the 'convention'.....

Hey SOOPOO!

It was a great experience! Maybe I saw the light of the folly of DI for about uhmm about a day and a half. :) So you have to give yourself some credit there! :) But going home and looking through the 2,000 + rolls I've tracked on my craps rig. At home I've still got an SRR of 1:7.35 As I told you after the dice challenge on our way back to the RIO.

Since I've gotten back to LA. I've been recreating my craps rig to match ahigh's and the aria's craps tables much more closely. I found those two tables very similar. And my craps rig far off from that setup... I'll start from scratch on my roll sheet and shoot another 2,000 + throws to see the results.

Yes the Wiz's challenge is a good one :) And I'd be up for coming back in April. This past trip was excellent!

Cheers,
Nick


edit: ALSO THANK YOU FOR TEACHING ME PAI GOW TILES!

Quote: nickolay411

I'll start from scratch on my roll sheet and shoot another 2,000 + throws to see the results.

Could you and anyone else presenting results of their tests please specify the source of the dice. That would be extremely helpful, seeing as how that information has not been presented amid the cascades of numbers and seeing as how such a big deal was made here about something called "alibaba" dice. Also useful would be to give the length of the table and the position of the shooter.

Quote: SanchoPanza

Could you and anyone else presenting results of their tests please specify the source of the dice. That would be extremely helpful, seeing as how that information has not been presented amid the cascades of numbers and seeing as how such a big deal was made here about something called "alibaba" dice. Also useful would be to give the length of the table and the position of the shooter.

By source you mean where the Dice came from? The last ones I used were brand new non cancelled Harrah's frosted dice I got from Spinettis gaming store in Las Vegas.

Find them here:
http://www.spinettisgaming.com/Stick-of-5-Harrah-s-Las-Vegas-NV-New-Red-Casino-Dice-Silver-Foil/

Quote: Ahigh

The chance of the dice being heavier on the six face and the one face more than the 2, 3, 4, and 5 faces is 6 choose 2 or 1 in 15.

Anybody want to take a free bet against me where I:

* Pick the casino to observe 400 rolls
* Pick the time to observe 400 rolls
* Observe the dice for a little while before deciding to start my roll records
* Have a neutral third party observe?

I'm not really great with math, but I think this would be like I pay you $10 if you win and you pay me $140 if I win.

We could do $5 and $70 if you want less risk. Of course I'd like a chance to win some serious dough. But this is a fair bet for anyone who wants some income to demonstrate that I can't find any biased dice out there and/or that I've just been lucky when I recorded rolls at Fiesta Henderson. It could just be a 1 in 15 luck thing!

Just to confirm : You win if the 1-6 (or whatever two faces you decided) have the most results after 400 rolls. The challenger wins with any other result? Only for valid called rolls? Count only starts after you nominate the two sides (no previous rolls recorded before that point).

Quote: thecesspit

Just to confirm : You win if the 1-6 (or whatever two faces you decided) have the most results after 400 rolls. The challenger wins with any other result? Only for valid called rolls? Count only starts after you nominate the two sides (no previous rolls recorded before that point).

The two sides would always be the 6 and 1 sides, but in general, you got the rest of the details I believe. The only thing I would want is the ability to pick the casino and the starting time for recording. Basically I would want to follow suspicious leads to try to push the advantage into my favor.

It's all just a game, but yeah, that's the idea. Even if the suspicious dice are being used somewhere, I would only be hoping to lose this bet less often than 14 out of 15 times, if that helps to define the bet I'm talking about.

If the math were easier, showing a higher p-value to 9,8,8,8,8,9 theoretical dice than to fair dice would be another thing to bet towards. I just don't know what the odds of this are whereas 6 choose 2 equals 15 is easier math.

Even if these beasts (biased dice) don't exist, and chasing them is like chasing Big-Foot, it's still sort of a fun game to find dice that behave this way in the short run and betting on finding them. Maybe it's just me, but I like to make a game of this stuff and have fun with it.

Quote: Ahigh

The chance of the dice being heavier on the six face and the one face more than the 2, 3, 4, and 5 faces is 6 choose 2 or 1 in 15.

Only for those dice wherein exactly two faces are heavier than the other four, and only if -- for those dice -- there is a uniform likelihood of any two faces being the heavy ones. But you don't even seem to believe this -- based on your prior posts, you seem to think that dice are "axially heavy" and will therefore show either 1,6 heavy; 2,5 heavy; or 3,4 heavy. That pegs the odds at 1 in 3, not 1 in 15.

Bigger picture, though, there are an awful lot of assumptions and tenuous conclusions being made. For example, unbalanced dice do not necessarily lead to game results that are significantly different than those obtained from using perfect dice. Perfect dice aren't even physically possible, yet dice results have been consistent (in NV anyway) for at least a decade at around 13.5% for any 12-month period. That doesn't fit the conspiracy theory that casinos have recently begun poorly-manufactured dice on purpose, but it does fit the theory that any imperfections in the dice don't matter.

In order for unbalanced dice to have a meaningful impact on game results, all of the dice would need to be unbalanced in the same way -- not just in one stick or at one table, but in the entirety of the dice shipment from the manufacturer. Dice aren't used for more than a few hours each, so if the imbalance in one die is different than another, the aggregate results will tend toward (and not away from) a 1-in-6 face distribution.

I appreciate the spirit of investigative journalism behind some of this analysis, but I fear that the bottom line is the same as it is in roulette. Nobody expects a roulette wheel to be perfect either, but that doesn't matter to the bottom-line either except when the bias is consistent and detectable. For dice, the question becomes whether anyone believes they can detect biased dice before the casino does, and whether that bias will persist after the dice are changed out.

Quote: MathExtremist

Only for those dice wherein exactly two faces are heavier than the other four, and only if -- for those dice -- there is a uniform likelihood of any two faces being the heavy ones. But you don't even seem to believe this -- based on your prior posts, you seem to think that dice are "axially heavy" and will therefore show either 1,6 heavy; 2,5 heavy; or 3,4 heavy. That pegs the odds at 1 in 3, not 1 in 15.

Bigger picture, though, there are an awful lot of assumptions and tenuous conclusions being made. For example, unbalanced dice do not necessarily lead to game results that are significantly different than those obtained from using perfect dice. Perfect dice aren't even physically possible, yet dice results have been consistent (in NV anyway) for at least a decade at around 13.5% for any 12-month period. That doesn't fit the conspiracy theory that casinos have recently begun poorly-manufactured dice on purpose, but it does fit the theory that any imperfections in the dice don't matter.

In order for unbalanced dice to have a meaningful impact on game results, all of the dice would need to be unbalanced in the same way -- not just in one stick or at one table, but in the entirety of the dice shipment from the manufacturer. Dice aren't used for more than a few hours each, so if the imbalance in one die is different than another, the aggregate results will tend toward (and not away from) a 1-in-6 face distribution.

I appreciate the spirit of investigative journalism behind some of this analysis, but I fear that the bottom line is the same as it is in roulette. Nobody expects a roulette wheel to be perfect either, but that doesn't matter to the bottom-line either except when the bias is consistent and detectable. For dice, the question becomes whether anyone believes they can detect biased dice before the casino does, and whether that bias will persist after the dice are changed out.

So far my model for creating the theoretically biased dice that would benefit the casino is based on what it would take to create more revenue without creating extra exposure.

I may create a more detailed model of theoretical dice, but right now, the bias is from the stick, not a single cube. The details of what a theoretically biased stick of dice is currently unknown by me.

I may publish more information on this to fill in possibilities, but I'm not suggesting that a single cube is both more likely to land on an ace or a six while simultaneously less likely to land on a two through five. It may take different bias on each cube in the stick to accomplish what we are only looking at a total face count for the entire stick.

Quote: MathExtremist

Only for those dice wherein exactly two faces are heavier than the other four, and only if -- for those dice -- there is a uniform likelihood of any two faces being the heavy ones. But you don't even seem to believe this -- based on your prior posts, you seem to think that dice are "axially heavy" and will therefore show either 1,6 heavy; 2,5 heavy; or 3,4 heavy. That pegs the odds at 1 in 3, not 1 in 15.

Bigger picture, though, there are an awful lot of assumptions and tenuous conclusions being made. For example, unbalanced dice do not necessarily lead to game results that are significantly different than those obtained from using perfect dice. Perfect dice aren't even physically possible, yet dice results have been consistent (in NV anyway) for at least a decade at around 13.5% for any 12-month period. That doesn't fit the conspiracy theory that casinos have recently begun poorly-manufactured dice on purpose, but it does fit the theory that any imperfections in the dice don't matter.

In order for unbalanced dice to have a meaningful impact on game results, all of the dice would need to be unbalanced in the same way -- not just in one stick or at one table, but in the entirety of the dice shipment from the manufacturer. Dice aren't used for more than a few hours each, so if the imbalance in one die is different than another, the aggregate results will tend toward (and not away from) a 1-in-6 face distribution.

I appreciate the spirit of investigative journalism behind some of this analysis, but I fear that the bottom line is the same as it is in roulette. Nobody expects a roulette wheel to be perfect either, but that doesn't matter to the bottom-line either except when the bias is consistent and detectable. For dice, the question becomes whether anyone believes they can detect biased dice before the casino does, and whether that bias will persist after the dice are changed out.

And there you have it... Well said