What are the odds of this!?!

Rolling 9 out of 12 rolls hard 4???


I did this a while back at the Tuscany. Story told many times by dealer Greg " most amazing thing I have ever seen".

Shitty thing was it was $2 for me and the crew. Not one parlay. Idiot. Seemed too good to be true after I hit a couple in a row

Exactly nine? Because let's see...

36^12 = 4,738,381,338,321,616,896.

33^3*3^9*(12 choose 3) = 35,937 * 19,683 * 220 = 155,616,553,620.

155,616,553,620 / 4,738,381,338,321,616,896 ~= .0000000328.

Which seems small, but keep in mind how many combinations would have had you posting here.

EDIT: Screwed up the math twice.

So it's about the same as hitting the lottery?!?

Seriously thank you for calculating

more like hitting the lottery a few times quickly

Using the Binomial Distribution function in Excel
I get
for 9 or more: 1 in 497,992,992,466.5

for exactly 9: 1 in 502,346,285,536.3
or long way:
1 / 12C9 (220) * (1/36)^9 * (35/36)^(12-9)

a different program: 1st & 3rd column row 9 looks close too

Are you sure there were not a few more rolls than 12?
It is very easy to miscount frequencies and total rolls at a Craps table unless they are written down.
Not saying you did or did not.

I hope you did not bet $2 each time.
You had to at least increase your bet on the H4 at some point.
No matter what
Sweet roll

Listen I am not a dice influencer.

I was drinking heavily so the story may have been enhanced.

I do know I hit several hards 4's and a few in a row.

The story goes from the dealers mouth 9 out of 12 rolls hard 4.

the reason i remember hard 4's is because that is the wife's favorite number

it was a lot and all i could do is laugh. If i were a gambling man, which obviously i am I would stake anything this is true.

so the count and rolls are close. That is OK.

Question remains.
You had to increase the $2 bet on the hard 4 at some point right??

You said you did not parlay, but you did increase the bet. Yes??

Oh, hard 4. That's actually significantly less, at .00000000000199.

And I thought I was hot when I rolled 4 hard 4s in a row and won a guy 8 grand.

Quote: 7craps

so the count and rolls are close. That is OK.

Question remains.
You had to increase the $2 bet on the hard 4 at some point right??

You said you did not parlay, but you did increase the bet. Yes??

No left the $2 up for me and the boys every single time.

Like I said before, IDIOT

Quote: bbvk05

And I thought I was hot when I rolled 4 hard 4s in a row and won a guy 8 grand.

I've still never even seen this before myself but I have seen enough rolls I should have by now.

I rolled hard fours back-to-back about 30 minutes ago for $100 win and walked.



Here's a photo from my table with a sound-triggered flash on a 2-second exposure. You can see the outcome of the roll from the dice sitting in one place for a long time at the end of the roll. The flash illuminates the touchdown.

This was a hard-ten.

But as I have said I have NEVER seen ANY hardway back-to-back four times.

I have seen aces four-times in a row twice though. (!!!) DAMN THE ACES!

And assuming you haven't already seen this tired old video, I have on video 9 hardways in ten throws with hard tens back-to-back twice in ten throws.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISv-n2DmvBQ

Quote: Ahigh

I've still never even seen this before myself but I have seen enough rolls I should have by now.

I rolled hard fours back-to-back about 30 minutes ago for $100 win and walked.



Here's a photo from my table with a sound-triggered flash on a 2-second exposure. You can see the outcome of the roll from the dice sitting in one place for a long time at the end of the roll. The flash illuminates the touchdown.

This was a hard-ten.

But as I have said I have NEVER seen ANY hardway back-to-back four times.

I have seen aces four-times in a row twice though. (!!!) DAMN THE ACES!

And assuming you haven't already seen this tired old video, I have on video 9 hardways in ten throws with hard tens back-to-back twice in ten throws.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISv-n2DmvBQ

Ahigh, watched the video and my first impression was that the dice seemed to be awfully lively. To be honest I was surprised. Some throws the dice/dye bounced nearly all the way back to box man or off the table. The table sounded hard and therefore less bouncy. The dice were not quiet. Lots of tumbling and twisting. Not trying to be critical here, simply an observation.

I watch that video and think how hilarious it is myself.

There is no doubt that luck is involved in what you are seeing. But that's a lot of hardways; which is the topic of the post.

Even with those rolls in my recorded roll data, my overall percentage of hardways is not astronomically high or anything.

But still, I understand the thinking when you see stuff like this and you think OMFG that's amazing.

It happened this morning to me in the casino, and yesterday I did a bunch of hardways back-to-back in the casino too.

But the OP, it's very remarkable when you see a bunch of hardways all at once.

No worries about thinking the rolls look random. I have absolutely heard it and don't even disagree about what you're seeing is nearly 100% luck. The only question is truly is there any skill at all, and I have to say that I still have no idea at this point.

As far as pride, though, I'm proud of that photo. The landing is clean, and the outcome is a hardway. That's at least one roll that I can say I did a good job on delivery seeing as that's all that I know I can control!

Back in March of 2012 at Harringtons in Delaware a guy rolled 8 11s in a row. Funny thing was no one was on it the whole time even with the crew screaming for someone to put some money on it.