Convince me that craps is a GOOD game...little math help please

OK, so the two casinos I frequent, will give my 25% of my average back PER hour...no matter HOW I bet.
Now, how I bet is:
$30 BUY on the point...with $1 vig paid on win only (or just place the 6/8 for $30 if it's the point)

The casino will give me back $7.50 per hour that I play like this. (Of course, they like me to play 4 hour stints, and they'll give me $30 for those 4 hours)

Am I getting shafted, or is it not too bad of a deal?
In other words, I know I've got like a 1.11%-1.52% HE against me (lowest edge - highest edge)
Is my expected loss less than $7.50 per hour? (My expected loss is just that $1 vig, correct?)
Thanks in advance!

The big variable is how many rolls per hour the table is getting in. You are much better off playing this way at a slow & crowded table. If there is one throw per minute, I am pretty sure you are ahead of the game.

Quote: dwheatley

The big variable is how many rolls per hour the table is getting in. You are much better off playing this way at a slow & crowded table. If there is one throw per minute, I am pretty sure you are ahead of the game.

I would say about one throw per minute...I play Fri/Sat nights, so it's pretty jammed up (10 people at the table usually; a lot of prop betters and so on)

I didn't do the math, but I wrote a quick WinCraps script. (Again, when the point is 4, 5, 9, or 10, you're buying the point for $30, with the $1 vig collected only on wins. When the point is 6 or 8, you're placing the point for $30.)

After about 15 million rolls, I'm showing that you'll lose ~$4.71/hour, assuming 60 rolls/hour.

You're probably getting more than 60 rolls/hour, even at a crowded table. I'm guessing it's closer to 90 rolls/hour, at which point you're still losing only ~$7.07/hour.

The break-even point (for your $7.50) seems to be around 95 rolls/hour.

Quote: YouCanBetOnThat

I didn't do the math, but I wrote a quick WinCraps script. (Again, when the point is 4, 5, 9, or 10, you're buying the point for $30, with the $1 vig collected only on wins. When the point is 6 or 8, you're placing the point for $30.)

After about 15 million rolls, I'm showing that you'll lose ~$4.71/hour, assuming 60 rolls/hour.

You're probably getting more than 60 rolls/hour, even at a crowded table. I'm guessing it's closer to 90 rolls/hour, at which point you're still losing only ~$7.07/hour.

The break-even point (for your $7.50) seems to be around 95 rolls/hour.

Those numbers look right. I'd say try to count the rolls over a 5-10 minute period, figure the /hour rate, and keep playing for comps if they are playing slower than 90 rolls/hour.

Sim data looks good.
Doing just the math with 3.375 rolls per come out roll and you only bet on the point established looks close to the sim data above

rolls per hr	ev	# of bets
60	-$4.81	11.85
70	-$5.61	13.83
80	-$6.42	15.80
90	-$7.22	17.78
95	-$7.62	18.77
100	-$8.02	19.75
110	-$8.82	21.73
120	-$9.62	23.70

So comps alone, it's basically a break-even play...this does not factor in the bounceback offers ($100 x2 per month)
Hmm...I may have to just have at it...

After 100 million simulated rolls, I'm getting EV slightly better than your results, 7craps, although our # of Bets is consistent.

Again, it appears that somewhere around 95 rolls/hour is the tipping point.

rolls per hr	ev	# of bets
60	-$4.72	11.85
70	-$5.51	13.83
80	-$6.30	15.80
90	-$7.08	17.78
95	-$7.48	18.76
100	-$7.87	19.75
110	-$8.66	21.73
120	-$9.45	23.70

Craps is the best game in the casino! Greatest probability of winning if you play correctly, understand the extenuating dynamics of the tables, and dont get too greedy. 'Dime' strategy... Discipline, Intelligence, Management, Energy. That is the winning formula, but takes years of hardship to figure it out.

Personally, I dont play for comps.. I play to win. Ill pay for my own meals. Too many people play for hours and hours just to get a meal comp... while losing 10x what they would pay for the meal. Sure it is great to get comps for whatever time you put in, just be smart and play to win.. then leave while you are up.

Quote: YouCanBetOnThat

After 100 million simulated rolls, I'm getting EV slightly better than your results, 7craps, although our # of Bets is consistent.

edit:
There is a reason for our slight differences in EV and you do not have to do any more sims to try and match my values.

We calculated, and simulated, the EV differently so our total resolved wagers per N rolls were different but not the average number of bets.

My calculations expected every bet made to be resolved. because I used EV for every calculation.

Your sim, when you divided by the rolls per hour, cuts off any bet made on that 60th roll or not resolved by the 60th roll for example.

TIMSPEED could play both ways, at 60 rolls come down since his bets are not a contract bet.
Or he could leave them up until the bet is resolved. That adds about 2.5 rolls on average.

Again nice work!

If you want to know if craps is a good game, you need to know why you are at the casino.

If you have $1000 a month and you want that to be your entertainment, and you dont care what you do, craps
is as good as anything.... pass line bet with 6 & 8 allows for reasonable house advantage. It it surely better than
slot machines, better than must card games, maybe close to BJ at a casino with adequate deck penetrations or
video poker thats pays 9-6 .

BUt every bet on the table carries a house advantage, and there is no betting system that can over come that.
You can limit you loses with a 5 count, though most hard core gamblers cant stand the thought of missing a
pay out or two the first five rolls, even though not losing on rolls which had no payouts more than offset that.

Craps is the best game in that it is the only game that allows you to be part of the decision by allowing you to throw
the dice. Anyone that works hard can get a small advantage over the casino on the 6 & 8. Now if you can get out of the casino
with a win consistantly, that is another story, most cant, they just have to gamble.

You need to decide what your money is worth to you, that will help determine how fast you want to give it away.

dicesitter

Quote: TIMSPEED

So comps alone, it's basically a break-even play...this does not factor in the bounceback offers ($100 x2 per month)
Hmm...I may have to just have at it...

Yes it looks like you've found a +EV play when you factor in both direct comps (25% return) and indirect comps (bounceback offers, tier card offers, etc). Whether it is worth your time invested is something only you can decide.

Quote: TIMSPEED

Am I getting shafted, or is it not too bad of a deal?

That depends upon YOU. Are you staying at the tables beyond what you really want to?

You are playing a game that you like and that has a very low house edge ... as long as this "carrot" they offer you of comps is not making you do things too excessively for your bankroll and desires then its fine.

Major determinant is going to HandsPerHour in actuality and HandsPerHour in their Comp-Computer. This is YOUR "edge".

Think of a BJ table. Their computer has a certain HandsPerHour rate built into it. If you are the ONLY player at the BJ table then your ACTUAL hands per hour is far higher than your comp rate and you are giving the casino your edge. If instead you play at a full table that has lots of side bets (made by others), lots of newbies, lots of chatter... then you are getting Comped at a rate that is faster play than your ACTUAL rate of play.

The casino's House Edge works against your Actual Bet and the rate of your Actual Play, but you get Comped at the rate of your Average Bet and the pre-determined Average Rate of Play. Its a narrow difference and you might want to be aware of it and even be guided by it but don't become controlled by it.