dice testing
Alternately, if you could somehow bias both dice to have the six or the one both coming up 17/98th of the time of the time and the other faces coming up 16/98ths of the time, the results are quite similar. I don't know how technically feasible it is to have the six or the one equally biased to come up more often than the other four faces, however.
The Chinese dice come in sticks of six usually anecdotally. And this may be of relevance if the bias is weighted more to the six on half the dice and more to the aces on the other half (of course we are still talking theory here).
The edge on the field is reduced a little bit due to having more sixes and ones. But the edge on the pass line increases dramatically and the edge on the don't pass doesn't change much.
If these dice exist and somehow found their way to the Santa Ana Star, the casino would get killed on the free field bet(!!!)
I am still a skeptic, but at least I am just trying to map out the theory of how much more money the house could make by employing biased dice, and given typical betting patterns, it does look like the math supports the idea that you could generate more money using biased dice without increasing your exposure all that much.
You might be a little more open to someone winning in the field, but that edge is pretty huge. The biggest thing is possible exposure on the don't pass line if your bias gets too heavy on the six face or the one face. There is a sweet spot on the distribution of outcomes for the theoretically gaffed dice.
One die biased to the one, one die biased to the six.
Both dice equally biased to the six and one.
The only one with an edge would be if the player chooses two dice that are both more likely to come up with an ace.
In this case, grinding on the don't pass yields a small edge due to payout on the aces.
According to all this theory of optimal gaffed dice, the one possible exposure point to the player for finely tuned gaffed dice from the casino is if you lay max odds on the don'ts with two dice showing too many aces, you can make about $0.02 per roll with no odds and $0.50 per roll in edge laying max odds on a 10x table (or thereabouts). Two dice heavy on the sixes doesn't have any exposure with these ideal theoretical biases towards the sixes.
So in theory, an ideal pair of gaffed dice (for the casino's best money-making potential) would have one die heavy towards the ace, the other dice heavy towards the six, and the distribution of outcomes over time need to be finely tuned to have 9/49ths sixes and 8/49ths every other face.
I need to add that I am the biggest skeptic that this is happening, but if someone did a bunch of trials on Chinese dice (or any other dice being used in the casino) and found these ratios to be coming up, it might be an interesting drama to continue pursuing.
There are other explanations besides balance for why aces and sixes come more frequently, but those are the faces the casinos would like to see, apparently, according to my simulations.
I just ran a $25 buy on the ten for 200,000 rolls and the house edge is gone, but no long-term exposure with these ratios. The same would be true for the four. So this is the magic ratio to take more money from the pass line without creating too much exposure anywhere except the don't pass assuming there times when both dice are more heavily weighted to the aces.
In other words, if you bias more heavily to the six, you create exposure somewhere else (like buying the ten or placing the 8). And if you bias less heavily, you are not taking full advantage of the majority of the players who are betting the passline with odds.
However it is not all that simple...... Your tests at home are on your own table. You know what the bounce is
there are never any chips in your way. YOur advantage at home is not what it will be in the casino. For one
thing every table is different, some are very bouncy, some are decent some are tubs and some are 12 footers
and 14 footers and 16 footers.
I dont feel any one can get an advantage on a 16 table, and speaking just for me, some of the very bouncy tables
are not playable. in the real world you play at a decent table one night a week for 5-10 hands depending on the results,
some weekend you play Saturday and Sunday... you need a large advantage at your home table to translate into a
bettable advantage at the casino.. If you play at a favorite table 1 day out of 7, you cant expect your throw to fit that
table perfectly right away. I feel i have a 5% advantage over the 6 & 8 on a good table, you take off the house
advantage and you can see even if your good, most times the 5 & 9 are not bettable... no one gets rich, but you
can grind out some nice wins.
dicesitter
Quote: SOOPOONot at all. Your terse answer says nothing, adds nothing, and is well.. worth nothing. His claim is so astounding as to be a casino crusher... Boymimbo gave some examples, which are actually lower than Mr. Sitter's claims.
There is missing math between the results given and dicesetter having "millions saved up."
In addition, there are other practical variables to be considered.
Run the numbers. It should be a grind.
I am contemplating to going all working-the-comeout all the time just to make everything simpler. I recommend all serious players who wish to have an edge do the same thing if you intend to exploit free bets.
Quote: boymimboSince the only known is the SRR, I estimate the frequency of all of the other numbers via an even distribution.
You didnt read his post fully. He gave exact percentages for increased frequency of both 6's and 8's.
Wanting some one to provide data for you so that you can assist them assumes that you are better than they are and
also better than those that have already provided craps players with quality how to vidoes and smart craps, which for
my money is the easiest and best way to see if you have an advantage.
Speaking only for myself, i do ok with craps , but i would never presume I am better than all others on here.
IN life i was accomplished enough to teach in my field, on the craps table i am just another old fart
setting the dice.
If your offering to teach, you better make sure your good enough not lead others in the wrong direction,.
Dicesitter.
Quote: dicesitterAhigh
Wanting some one to provide data for you so that you can assist them assumes that you are better than they are and
also better than those that have already provided craps players with quality how to vidoes and smart craps, which for
my money is the easiest and best way to see if you have an advantage.
Speaking only for myself, i do ok with craps , but i would never presume I am better than all others on here.
IN life i was accomplished enough to teach in my field, on the craps table i am just another old fart
setting the dice.
If your offering to teach, you better make sure your good enough not lead others in the wrong direction,.
Dicesitter.
I'm not teaching, I am showing. There is no opinion about what I am doing when it comes to running rolls through a simulator and showing the results.
I think your assumptions are wrong. Giving me roll data to plug in and look at requires no craps playing skill whatsoever.
As far as software and analysis of your throw, I'm pretty sure that I have things in my software that you won't find in any other software. But I could be wrong.
Anyway, it's still work for me to do it, I just thought that someone who had rolls as good as you have posted about wouldn't mind getting some more direction on possible ways to go and wouldn't mind posting the roll data up for all to see as I have done.
As a generalization, it is my belief that most people who pay for dice classes learn about the game, but generally speaking are unable to attain a bias within the limited amount of time and resources they have to throw at the problem. They are much more likely to get lucky employing a betting system that purports to exploit bias, when in fact the system is mostly just a system.
Anecdotally, the MP204 betting strategy on my rolls right now is being beat by a single passline with 10x odds over the course of my recorded rolls.
Unless each and every one of those 100 roll groupings you walk away from the table listing to starboard from all the chips in your pocket.Quote: BuzzardI am math illiterate, but even I know 100 rolls will not prove a F***ing thing.
Two buddies hit $100 boxcars twice EACH with no misses and walked away with $6,000+ each ($12,000 total between the two of them) in profit from $200 buy-ins.
It was three rolls that were responsible for those wins for the most part.
I am almost POSITIVE these guys are losing tons of money from the way that they bet.
But for that one session, those three rolls meant a lot (they both hit on one of the same rolls and each hit independently on two other rolls).
So that's a case where three rolls proved something: betting big and getting lucky has no substitute.
I would agree that most people that take a dice class learn some about the game and betting, and i would agree
that most never get far beyond that. This stuff is hard, and i have seen some pick it up quick and do ok, I
was not one of those. I have to practice constantly to be decent.
I also have to say once you have taken this as far as I have, and by that i dont mean to a point of
excellence, i mean to a point of cost and time, you cant just go back to a craps table and be a random
thrower, it is just not possible.
I spent about 1.5 years on my throw before i had any instruction, and by that time i had so many
problems built into my throw, it was 10 times harder to correct than if i never had tried on my own in
the first place. With that in mind i try not to showe or teach, i let the experts do that.
dicesitter
Quote: BuzzardI do not charge for lessons. But my student's results are almost as good as the best dice setters in the world !
Only almost? I think Buzz is coming around slowly!
Quote: thecesspitOnly almost? I think Buzz is coming around slowly!
Just when I was starting to believe the old dog cliche, too.
Any software can have errors in it.Quote: AhighI'm not teaching, I am showing. There is no opinion about what I am doing when it comes to running rolls through a simulator and showing the results.
As far as software and analysis of your throw, I'm pretty sure that I have things in my software that you won't find in any other software. But I could be wrong.
Anyway, it's still work for me to do it, I just thought that someone who had rolls as good as you have posted about wouldn't mind getting some more direction on possible ways to go and wouldn't mind posting the roll data up for all to see as I have done.
Happens all the time when there is no rigorous testing done on the program.
(even sometimes after rigorous testing has been done)
Sometimes the errors cause just small errors in the data the program produces,
other times large errors that make the program unreliable because of the accuracy of the data produced.
Your site here for example
WorldWide HighRollers @ GoodShooter.com
contains errors in the data, yes it has been pointed out before at WoV, that are very easy to see.
Try to double a stake with just the pass line,
say $100 to $200 making just $5 flat bets...
your program returns ending bankrolls of $205, actually impossible to happen without errors in your code.
(error appears to be in the bankroll available (money on the rail) after a bet is made)
I trust the code I can see with my own eyes or I trust a program after I test it.
I make errors too in writing code, initially, did it this morning, but I do find them all and correct them, most times a very simple mistake.
Time to start testing your programs for errors... to be 100% error free,
get others to help out too,
finding them errors in the program and eliminate them.
Otherwise, the data they produce will not be 100% accurate 100% of the time as they should be.
And if we can not trust the data that is produced...
Continued Good Luck
Quote: 7crapsAny software can have errors in it.
Happens all the time when there is no rigorous testing done on the program.
(even sometimes after rigorous testing has been done)
Sometimes the errors cause just small errors in the data the program produces,
other times large errors that make the program unreliable because of the accuracy of the data produced.
Your site here for example
WorldWide HighRollers @ GoodShooter.com
contains errors in the data, yes it has been pointed out before at WoV, that are very easy to see.
Try to double a stake with just the pass line,
say $100 to $200 making just $5 flat bets...
your program returns ending bankrolls of $205, actually impossible to happen without errors in your code.
(error appears to be in the bankroll available (money on the rail) after a bet is made)
I trust the code I can see with my own eyes or I trust a program after I test it.
I make errors too in writing code, initially, did it this morning, but I do find them all and correct them, most times a very simple mistake.
Time to start testing your programs for errors... to be 100% error free,
get others to help out too,
finding them errors in the program and eliminate them.
Otherwise, the data they produce will not be 100% accurate 100% of the time as they should be.
And if we can not trust the data that is produced...
Continued Good Luck
I remember this debate from before, and I will grant you that I have written code that has bugs in it, and that the link you provided does seem to demonstrate some problem.
I constantly test and fix errors in my code, and I'm pretty sure that there are no errors getting in the way at the moment with my code, which is completely separate from the code referenced on the website that's generally not being used.
$190 passline 5
roll is 7
$195 passline 5
yo 11 yo - pay the line
$200 passline 5
roll is 7
$205 passline 5
roll is 4 mark it up
$205 p/4 passline 5/0
roll is 7
The error is that the check for a condition of winning was made only after a point was made instead of at the end of every roll, so natural winners were not triggering the simulation to end properly.
In both cases, however, it's lack of data from other shooters, not errors in the simulation, that is leading to a lack of utility for the software.
This particular error is of no significant relevance for conclusions, really, except that the simulation is slightly less likely to walk away a winner because it keeps playing on natural wins of the passline that meet the target win conditions.
Like dicesitter, most people who are in a positive to provide such data that they claim to have with fantastic results simply do not provide it, or have it in a format that is lacking in information (such as recording the sum of the two dice instead of the value of each die).
You need to explain something to me..... i hope you can becuase i just dont get it.
When i keep records i have for thousands of rolls recorded each dice seperately, i do this because i want to find
which of the two dice is on axis and which of the dice repeat one of the 4 axis numbers more than the other.
Over a year ago i sent all my data to one of the best dicesitters in the country, maybe the best and he checked it all
out and came to the same conclusion i did in terms of my advantage.
The question i have is why in the hell would i send my data to you.... do you think i need your blessing, do you think
i feel a need to prove to you or anyone one else that it is possible to get an advantage. Do you really think if i sent the data a
knucklehead like Buzzard would still not call me a liar.... do think for a minute you would throw up your hands and say
wow there is an advantage, and then from that day forward we would never have another question regarding dice
control...
The point is simple and sweet, the money i gamble with is mine, i make the decision to bet or not to bet. I know
there is not....repeat not any possibility...none what so ever that you or anyone else could convince me that what
i and others have done, we did not really do....In addition there is no possibility...... none, to learn dice control
unless you do it the right way and learn from the best.
You may think dice sitters are here for your amusement.... but it only appears that way.
Dicesitter.
Quote: dicesitterAhigh
You need to explain something to me..... i hope you can becuase i just dont get it.
When i keep records i have for thousands of rolls recorded each dice seperately, i do this because i want to find
which of the two dice is on axis and which of the dice repeat one of the 4 axis numbers more than the other.
Over a year ago i sent all my data to one of the best dicesitters in the country, maybe the best and he checked it all
out and came to the same conclusion i did in terms of my advantage.
The question i have is why in the hell would i send my data to you.... do you think i need your blessing, do you think
i feel a need to prove to you or anyone one else that it is possible to get an advantage. Do you really think if i sent the data a
knucklehead like Buzzard would still not call me a liar.... do think for a minute you would throw up your hands and say
wow there is an advantage, and then from that day forward we would never have another question regarding dice
control...
The point is simple and sweet, the money i gamble with is mine, i make the decision to bet or not to bet. I know
there is not....repeat not any possibility...none what so ever that you or anyone else could convince me that what
i and others have done, we did not really do....In addition there is no possibility...... none, to learn dice control
unless you do it the right way and learn from the best.
You may think dice sitters are here for your amusement.... but it only appears that way.
Dicesitter.
Google Chrome has spell checking built in, also. Only trying to help, but I can tell you don't want any. Take my wishes for good luck!
I get responses like this often from other craps players when I give them advice to bet the six or the eight for 6 dollars instead of 5.
Just like you, they are not concerned with how they are doing it because they are sure they are doing it the way that they want to.
It's fine, no worries, and sorry to try to help you out! If I could get you to listen to one suggestion, it would be to not assume that I am trying to do anything but help you. You assume that I am doing something besides trying to help, it appears.
our Wisconsin dice team got together last night for practice. we have a number of drills
designed to limit the number of bounces on a bouncy table. We are on a road trip
this weekend and the table is a little bouncy..
We have a video system and can record all we do for playback. Was good practice
and we should be ready for the weekend. 3 of the last 4 road trips were good, one
not so good. Last trip to this table we got our butt kicked, this is a bouncy table
for sure. The two winning trips we added several 40 roll hands , last we had 4 sessions
at the table with 2 of us and we could not get above 26 rolls. But that is what we
deserved, for the most part our throws were terrible.
dicesitter
Quote: dicesitterexcellent night of practice.
dicesitter[/
But its...its easy ... to, to talk about... It's easy to sum it up when you're just talking about practice. We're sitting in here, and I'm supposed to be the franchise player, and we in here talking about practice. I mean, listen, we're talking about practice, not a game, not a game, not a game, we talking about practice. Not a game. Not, not ... Not the game that I go out there and die for and play every game like it's my last. Not the game, but we're talking about practice, man. I mean, how silly is that? ...
And we talking about practice. I know I supposed to be there. I know I'm supposed to lead by example... I know that... And i'm not.. I'm not shoving it aside, you know, like it don't mean anything. I know it's important, I do. I honestly do...
But we're talking about practice man. What are we talking about? Practice? We're talking about practice, man. We're talking about practice. We're talking about practice. We aint talking about the game. We're talking about practice, man. When you come to the arena, and you see me play, you see me play don't you? You've seen me give everything I've got, right? But we're talking about practice right now.When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
is nice to see some one has made a break through.
Practice is something you do to make improvements in your results. I understand it is a difficult for some
people to grasp the concept, hell i have even seen great bowlers practice, great golfers practice, great
ball players take batting practice, hell i even saw a card counter practice one time. I elk hunt in archery
season, and thinking back i even remember practicing my shooting.
amazing...results are tied to practice.... who knew????
dicesitter
Being that Smart Craps program is very easy to use
http://www.goldentouchcraps.com/CrappyMath/math0001.shtml
and I was looking for data to pass a pro Test, mine has failed,
Ahigh's data looked like a good subject to try.
He passed one test from the 3
(over 2000+ dice rolls.
Just using his last 468 rolls, he fails all tests and has thrown just one less 7 than expected.
But we do not care about the most recent results or trends, the overall results speaks with mathematical significance)
Also failed the SRR test for the 1% level.
The program shows what edge Ahigh would have with some simple bets like pass, don't pass and place.
I think he already knows his advantage.
Results for those that believe Ahigh does not exert some control over the dice.
These same tests are approved by FrankS
here are Ahigh's results. I am certain he could also verify these using his program.
They matched my results and those from Dice Tool.
Other DIs
step up and show your #s.
it is the proof needed and requested by others than just your words.
And Ahigh keeps on rolling the dice.
Smart Craps says the tests are easier to pass with more rolls at the 1% significance level.
Shooter name:
ahigh
# of roll sets in Pro Test:
1
# of roll sets excluded:
0
Note: excluded roll sets are not included in Pro Test results below
Total # of rolls:
2012
Pro 1 Test:
Both dice on axis
# of passes: 883 (more is good)
Expected # of passes: 894.22
Pro Test score: 69.50%
Pass/fail: fail (1% or less to pass)
Pro 2 Test:
Primary face hits
# of passes: 235 (more is good)
Expected # of passes: 220.75
Pro Test score: 14.28%
Pass/fail: fail (1% or less to pass)
Pro 3 Test:
Double pitches
# of failures: 190 (less is good)
Expected # of failures: 220.75
Pro test score: 0.86%
Pass/fail: pass (1% or less to pass)
### this test means that when he does keep both dice on axis,
either by control or just by randomness (luck), he keeps the double pitches to a very low range.
It is these that produce the 7s ###
SRR evaluation:
# sevens rolled: 306
# sevens expected: 335.33
SRR: 6.58
Pro Test score of SRR: 4.22%
less than 1% is a pass
Outcomes summary:Outcome # Occurences # Expected Pro Test score
2 44 (less) 55.89 6.11%
3 125 (more) 111.78 9.50%
4 169 (more) 167.67 46.50%
5 216 (less) 223.56 29.50%
6 287 (more) 279.44 31.50%
7 306 (less) 335.33 4.22%
8 294 (more) 279.44 17.50%
9 246 (more) 223.56 5.96%
10 172 (more) 167.67 36.50%
11 101 (less) 111.78 14.50%
12 52 (less) 55.89 31.50%
Pass line bet expectation: 1x odds
exp.= 1.0137%
Pass line bet expectation: 5X odds
exp.= 1.8020%
Even though many say Ahigh can not, by his throw, exert any control over the dice,
the statistics proves he does,
he passed a test over 2,000 dice rolls and at a 1% level, meaning only 1 in 100 do it randomly,
and a few others that are closer to 1% than 50%,
and has a verifiable edge over the house on some bets.
(from his dice rolls at home)
Cool
Quote: 7craps
Pass line bet expectation: 1x odds
exp.= 1.0137%
Pass line bet expectation: 5X odds
exp.= 1.8020%
Even though many say Ahigh can not, by his throw, exert any control over the dice,
the statistics proves he does,
he passed a test over 2,000 dice rolls and at a 1% level, meaning only 1 in 100 do it randomly,
and a few others that are closer to 1% than 50%,
and has a verifiable edge over the house on some bets.
(from his dice rolls at home)
Cool
For what its worth, if those ratios are expected going forward then he also has a 6.167% player edge on the place 8 bet. Assuming that trend will continue, I'd be making minimum line bets with odds and a starting $60 place 8 bet and pressing it by half each win. Too aggressive for Kelly, I know, but life is short.
Quote: 7craps
here are Ahigh's results. I am certain he could also verify these using his program.
They matched my results and those from Dice Tool.
Other DIs
step up and show your #s.
it is the proof needed and requested by others than just your words.
Even though many say Ahigh can not, by his throw, exert any control over the dice,
the statistics proves he does,
Did anyone witness these 2012 throws? These are at home, right?
Other DIs: putting numbers in a spreadsheet or program does not PROVE anything, in my view.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
I have watched a few of his sessions he records live when I have the time on Tuesday nights.Quote: goatcabinDid anyone witness these 2012 throws? These are at home, right?
Just go to his Ahigh show thread and click on the link to see or watch his videos. I think they are also on YouTube too.
he is entertaining at home on video IMO
It is the statistical start to showing with at least a 99% confidence level that a DI is exerting some control over X number of rolls.Quote: goatcabinOther DIs: putting numbers in a spreadsheet or program does not PROVE anything, in my view.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Ahigh has over 2000 using the proper set for Smart Craps.
His last 468 rolls are just average, but his total 2000+ shows enough control to have an edge over the house on some bets.
He can only play going forward and maybe his shot will or will not continue to give him and edge.
I think Ahigh knows his advantage better than other DIs that think (hope) they know theirs.Quote: MathExtremistFor what its worth, if those ratios are expected going forward then he also has a 6.167% player edge on the place 8 bet. Assuming that trend will continue, I'd be making minimum line bets with odds and a starting $60 place 8 bet and pressing it by half each win.
Too aggressive for Kelly, I know,
but life is short.
Ahigh has mentioned he plays craps more than almost anyone, that may be true,
so he may want to consider Kelly betting.
he should have the bankroll needed if he needs it or wants it
I think he just plays craps to have fun
Quote: 7craps
It is the statistical start to showing with at least a 99% confidence level that a DI is exerting some control over X number of rolls.
Massaging numbers with mathematics or software is meaningless unless the numbers have been verified.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Excellent point.Quote: goatcabinMassaging numbers with mathematics or software is meaningless unless the numbers have been verified.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
I think that is exactly why Ahigh records live every throw he makes.
I have seen over 2000 of the over 3000 total he has rolled and recorded.
That is why I only looked at the last 2000 that I have seen.
(Plus his last 2000 used the hardways set and that is the set to use for the Pro Tests in Smart Craps)
I have no reason to suspect Ahigh's roll results are fabricated or massaged,
I can easily follow him to a casino and bet on him or track his rolls or both
- I may actually do that at the end of this month -
Quote: nezbitnot sure why you guys arent at the casino 24/7...obvioulsy cant lose when you can influence the dice
I don't play 24/7, but I play a lot. You gotta sleep!!!
it still takes time and a bankroll. Many have neither.Quote: nezbitnot sure why you guys arent at the casino 24/7...obvioulsy cant lose when you can influence the dice
Maybe actual casino edges vs. actual at home edges are way different.
FrankS says they will be. One has to adjust for that also.
That is why I have said it would be nice to see actual casino dice rolls by a DI posted.
Then enter those into Smart Craps. (the ones that use only the hardway set)
Just like the thousands of them I have tracked in casinos over the years and have been laughed at by doing so.
I could care less, love making people laugh.
People play at home differently than they do in a casino.
And losing takes away from the fun of playing with any edge.
FrankS in his many writings gives the impression that just by having an edge means you will always win, you will be a winner not a LOSER like all the others that bet on random rollers.
That sells books, but not the truth that sometimes he places at the end of the chapter.
Some players just hate to lose even one session playing with an edge.
Many, with an edge, will still have too small of a bankroll to play with or
their bets will be too large for their bankroll, "I have the edge, I bet big to win big and kill the casinos"
that allows variance to dominate sessions of short lengths.
FrankS makes it sound so easy.
take a class, or a few of them from him, he loves the $$$,
he offers a money back guarantee.
Once you have proved to yourself beyond a reasonable doubt (you are a 1 in 100)
you are controlling the outcomes of your dice rolls,
yep, take the next step
See you at the craps tables
I am not a DI - I have no patience to learn the skill.
But looks like Ahigh is from his Smart Craps stats based on his 2000+ at home rolls.
yep, take the next step
If you really want to see if you have an edge you have keep your data, if you use Smart craps you have to enter
all your practice throws.... not just the good ones
Then if you want to win you have to bet into that advantage
Excellent post Alan
dicesitter
You then need to keep practicing, you should be able to pass three parts of smart craps, pro test 1, pro test 3 and SRR
with practice and good instruction. Por test 2 is a bugger atleast for me,
Keep practicing, when you get 3 parts passed Smart craps will indicate what your advantage is and which
sets are the best sets to use.
dicesitter
just as an aside..............all gtc instructors "have to pass" smart craps tests...... not just one part
