Not that I mean anything by the question, but it is there, every flip.
Freakin' weird.
Quote: MrVWhy does the monitor on the table show a photo of a horse's ass every time it switches views?
Not that I mean anything by the question, but it is there, every flip.
Freakin' weird.
i asked this question months ago and ahigh's earnest answer was that it momentarily shows his desktop and that his desktop is, indeed, a photo of a horse's ass.
Quote: sodawateri asked this question months ago and ahigh's earnest answer was that it momentarily shows his desktop and that his desktop is, indeed, a photo of a horse's ass.
LOL
With the moderators lurking and ever vigilant, I will refrain from making any smarmy remarks.
Quote: MrVLOL
With the moderators lurking and ever vigilant, I will refrain from making any smarmy remarks.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/11316-threw-9-hardways-in-ten-rolls/4/#post182388
Quote: IbeatyouracesHe he or someone can prove it, they'd be a fool to reveal it as casinos will most certainly stop you from even attempting it.
As much and as long as it's been talked about, I don't see this happening. If someone could do it, they'd be in the severe minority and not worth the time it'd take to prevent it.
Ahigh, just do it. I don't think it's possible and think you're only going to either A) come to an inconclusive result, or B) actually add proof to its impossibility, but I won't say you're wasting your time. The path of discovery is a fun one, even if someone's already blazed it before. I get queer looks and odd comments for some of the stuff I do, but none of that matters. If I'm diggin' it, well, that's all that matters.
if one really wanted to work out on his own whether dice can be controlled enough to beat craps, why would one talk about it so much?
answer: the real goal is social attention and validation. the craps/dice stuff is secondary.
Quote: sodawaterthought experiment:
if one really wanted to work out on his own whether dice can be controlled enough to beat craps, why would one talk about it so much?
You see this a lot on the roulette boards. Some guys
will have charts and graphs and spreadsheets up the
ying yang and talk about roulette night and day.
Anything to keep them out of the actual casino
where they have to put their theories into
practice. They are the same guys who, when they
enter online roulette contests, drop out in the first
15 spins because they lost 10 of them.
Quote: sodawaterthought experiment:
if one really wanted to work out on his own whether dice can be controlled enough to beat craps, why would one talk about it so much?
answer: the real goal is social attention and validation. the craps/dice stuff is secondary.
Isn't social attention and validation the reason why all of us are here? I mean, I have all these posts because I want to be listened to and feel that i have something to contribute. If everyone just chose to ignore me, I guess I wouldn't post.
Some people are more sociopathic than others and require attention. I have days when I am on here all day, and weeks where I don't look or post anything at all.
Ahigh is the same. He has his own motivations for coming on here. There is a camaraderie of gamblers here and a number of people who are interested in craps. He's advertising the TV show because he's looking for attention and thinks that we'll be interested, and hey, a few people were, so guess what, he has comeraderie.
It attracts the nay-sayers too, and that's okay. If you're going to put yourself out there in the internets, you gotta be able to take the heat.
Quote: MakingBookI still find it amazing that Stanford Wong fell for that nonsense in the first place.
What the hell was he thinking???
Probably that it was plausible that if someone can routinely throw 180s in darts that they can impart at least some bias to a pair of dice. Absent some concrete proof to the contrary, it's at least worth testing. He tested and failed, so he moved on. While that study doesn't conclusively prove dice control is impossible, it did demonstrate that dice control is likely to be less effective than card counting for an AP.
So, just like card counting in baccarat, dice influencing might be theoretically interesting but not practically useful.
Quote: AhighAnd once you start varying your bet amounts, the grind matters less than the strategy of varying your bet amounts.
Unlike card counting, dice rolls are independent. There should be no reason to vary one's bet amounts regardless of the edge because it doesn't change over time. If you have an edge due to your throwing ability, it persists. If you don't, that persists too.
Quote: MathExtremistUnlike card counting, dice rolls are independent. There should be no reason to vary one's bet amounts regardless of the edge because it doesn't change over time. If you have an edge due to your throwing ability, it persists. If you don't, that persists too.
There is a confidence level to my throw that goes up and down depending on what my body is doing. When I get excited or worried, my confidence level usually goes down.
I try to bet big only when I am calm and confident.
Quote: MathExtremist
So, just like card counting in baccarat, dice influencing might be theoretically interesting but not practically useful.
Ahigh thinks is somehow significant that Wong has
never flat out stated dice control doesn't work. Even
though he's said it a multitude of ways without actually
saying it.
He's written a book on it, he'll never come right out and say
he was wrong.
Quote: EvenBobAhigh thinks is somehow significant that Wong has
never flat out stated dice control doesn't work. Even
though he's said it a multitude of ways without actually
saying it.
He's written a book on it, he'll never come right out and say
he was wrong.
I also think it's insignificant everything you have to say on the subject.
Mostly because I think you just blabber on and on and make jokes and have little value to add to what I'm doing.
Quote: AhighI also think it's insignificant everything you have to say on the subject.
.
Of course, you'd have to. You'll get bored eventually and
move onto something else, just like Wong did. Its inevitable.
Quote: EvenBobOf course, you'd have to. You'll get bored eventually and
move onto something else, just like Wong did. Its inevitable.
I don't have to. Let me be frank. I have heard your name before you ever interacted with me. And the context wasn't what a fine upstanding member of the forum you were and how much you had to contribute. You can't prove I have a biased throw, but I absolutely have a bias when it comes to my opinions about other members of this forum. And I have a biased opinion of you based on comments others on this forum have made.
Generally speaking, I haven't heard of any of your champions proclaiming your value to doing the hard work of anything at all. I'm sure there is something that I missed, but just generalizing here.
Not much value from you.
Okay?
Quote: AhighI don't have to. Let me be frank. I have heard your name before you ever interacted with me.
Thats your defense of dice setting, to attack
me personally? You can do better than that.
Can't you?
Dice setting has been shown over and over not
to work long term. As I'm sure you know.
Quote: EvenBobThats your defense of dice setting, to attack
me personally? You can do better than that.
Can't you?
Dice setting has been shown over and over not
to work long term. As I'm sure you know.
Are you the guy who met someone who beat roulette? Is that you?
How does he do that?
Who are you again?
Look: I'm not ATTACKING you, I'm saying I don't give much credibility to your opinions, that is all.
If you weren't in here trying to interact with me from a position that I should actually listen to what you have to say, I would say nothing.
Honestly, I would suggest you stop addressing me.
Back to ignore.
Quote: Ahigh
Look: I'm not ATTACKING you, I'm saying I don't give much credibility to your opinions, that is all.
I've haven't held dice since I was a kid playing board
games. I'm parroting opinions of others who have been
there and done it.
The thing that bothers me about setting is, if there was
anything to it, if the casino thought you could even get
the slightest edge from it, no casino would allow it. And
most of them do allow it. What should that tell us?
Quote: EvenBobI've haven't held dice since I was a kid playing board
games. I'm parroting opinions of others who have been
there and done it.
The thing that bothers me about setting is, if there was
anything to it, if the casino thought you could even get
the slightest edge from it, no casino would allow it. And
most of them do allow it. What should that tell us?
I do appreciate your candor. I am familiar with conventionally held beliefs on the subject.
The RAA proof is that let's assume you are correct. Blackjack is an advantage game. Blackjack is allowed. Therefore it is absurd to believe that casinos would not allow a game that has opportunity for advantage play because they allow blackjack.
That's not a strong enough argument to state that it's not possible.
"73 rolls Stanford Wong, June 2004, Las Vegas"
So even after allegedly putting together a monster roll, Wong has abandoned dice setting as a means of AP.
Presumably he put together this roll while being tutored in the black art of dice setting: his book came out one year later, in '05.
Gotta wonder why Wong still has his book on dice setting available when he no longer believes in the crap he spews out in it.
The heck with honesty: it's all about the Benjamins.
http://www.craps.gr/Learn-to-Play-Craps---Tips-and-Strategies-Want-Proof-Dice-Control-is-a-Scam.html
That people have all sorts of beliefs that others think are complete and utter bunkum. :)
Don't you find that odd?
http://www.craps.gr/Learn-to-Play-Craps---Tips-and-Strategies-Want-Proof-Dice-Control-is-a-Scam.html
Quote: EvenBob"I've never heard of any of the so-called dice doctors, dice wizards, or famous multi-book dice-control authors getting thrown out of a casino because of their dice-tossing skills. Have you? According to their websites and written works, they routinely play in casinos across the globe allegedly beating the crap out of the casino."
Don't you find that odd?
http://www.craps.gr/Learn-to-Play-Craps---Tips-and-Strategies-Want-Proof-Dice-Control-is-a-Scam.html
I don't find it odd at all. I look at this type of thing all day long.
I would find it more curious if nobody won at all. The truth is that even without an edge, you can easily have lifetime wins at craps.
I'm not sure if you're aware of that. Dumb luck plus low edge, plus no tips, plus reckless betting with pressure on low-edge high-payout bets can lead to lifetime wins after HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF ROLLS.
I demonstrated this using my software.
Are you going to argue that it's not possible to win tens of thousands of dollars after 100,000 rolls of the dice when it's easily demonstrated using math and simulation that it can be done?
Of course not. The argument that casinos wouldn't allow advantage play on craps (BIG FREAKING DEAL IMO) is weaker than the argument that casinos wouldn't allow double pay on a bet with a 0.33% edge per roll or FREE ODDS TO ANYBODY for that matter.
I think it's totally reasonable to consider the possibility that they have no problem with advantage play because there are WAY MORE FOOLS MAKING STUPID BETS to make up for the very few doing advantage play, assuming that it's possible. Even still, pit crews don't think it's possible in general. So the question is moot as long as they don't think it's possible. As long as the table earns overall there is no problem.
Quote: AhighI think it's totally reasonable to consider the possibility that they have no problem with advantage play because there are WAY MORE FOOLS MAKING STUPID BETS to make up for the very few doing advantage play, assuming that it's possible. Even still, pit crews don't think it's possible in general. So the question is moot as long as they don't think it's possible. As long as the table earns overall there is no problem.
That argument must fail.
All casinos have a house rule that the dice must hit the back wall; if a player is seen to repeatedly violate it, the dice are passed and a new shooter finishes up.
Why do they have this rule?
Because dice setters, on the net, in books, and at seminars have bragged about how they get an advantage if the die, on a "controlled" toss, do not hit the pyramids and deflect randomly.
The casinos think it is probably a bunch of B.S., but they are taking precautions BECAUSE dice setting proponents claim it works.
Quote: MrVThat argument must fail.
All casinos have a house rule that the dice must hit the back wall; if a player is seen to repeatedly violate it, the dice are passed and a new shooter finishes up.
Why do they have this rule?
Because dice setters, on the net, in books, and at seminars have bragged about how they get an advantage if the die, on a "controlled" toss, do not hit the pyramids and deflect randomly.
The casinos think it is probably a bunch of B.S., but they are taking precautions BECAUSE dice setting proponents claim it works.
Look, I think you and a lot of other people have a hard time understanding that advantage play on craps is generally really boring and not many people even TRY to do it.
When people are doing it (of course in theory), they are NECESSARILY doing it with smaller than normal bet amounts. So the dealers are literally covering their mouths with their hand to yawn.
When you do advantage play on craps, volatility is not your friend. You want low volatility and just bet very consistently and overcome the smallest edge and lowest volatility bet or series of bets you can muster to match your edge.
It's damn fucking boring.
And I don't care if you're doing it for black chips at the Wynn or single red chips at the Silverton, the dealers are still yawning when you compared it to the normal gambler who embraces the high volatility and short run press the fuck out of those bets and let's win or go home broke.
I think so many of you guys who make these comments don't have clue-1 about the game. Seriously!!!
There are guys like Mad Professor who have their MP204 systems, which is supposed to take advantage of a SRR of whatever, but he starts out with $204 across and looks to get two hits. So a big chunk of the time the system fails (note I say system) and you go home $204 broker than when you got there.
This is at best a hybrid betting system, but I don't even know if I would consider it valid AP because you're grinding with no less than $204 and ready to go home after the first roll 1/6th of the time?
Sounds lame.
Anyway, I digress.
Maybe ! But I have over 50 years of watching guys press their luck and proclaimed how smart they are the few times they win.
That's just my opinion.
I think those guys employ too many systems and too many bets that have edges that are 1.00% per roll and higher.
I've seen DiceCoach making prop bets at a craps tournament. I think that guy is great and all, but I'm not looking up to him to tell me how and when to make prop bets for AP craps play. Just my perspective.
Quote: Ahighif I prove that AP craps play is possible,
I mentioned before that this argument is exactly
like the roulette argument that a dealer can sector
shoot the ball with incredible accuracy. And every
casino has one of these sharp shooters they bring
out to defeat a high roller.
Its never ever been demonstrated or proven, yet
people will swear on their children that its true.
They will scream in your face that its true.
Forget that its never been proven. The reason its
not true is the same reason dice setting is a fantasy.
No casino would ever allow such a dealer in its
casino, let alone hire one. He would be far too dangerous.
He could get all his friends and relatives to bet just
once on a certain section and make thousands week
with little chance of getting caught.
Section shooters and dice setters are urban legends,
nobody has ever proved they aren't. Its in the same
category as Bigfoot.
Quote: Buzzard" I think that guy is great and all," Care to expand ? I have a biased opinion against any tout. Please enlighten me, if you will.
Kelly took his class, and we met him. I'm just saying that on a personal level I think he's a great guy. He funny, and he helps people learn the game. I wouldn't take his class or anyone else's class. All that I'm saying is that without even knowing the details of what he's doing, I've personally seem him do a hop bet for a green chip, and that is one thing where I side more with folks from this forum. Even a really good hurdle jumper isn't going to ask them to raise the height of the hurdles just because he's so good he wants to show off. There is no reason to take those bets from my perspective, and to me it sort of gives me pause about what he is all about.
I have no issues with the guy on a personal level though. And I don't perceive him to be malicious. I just sort of have my own independent perspective on things, and I'm not about selling stuff. I'm more about trying to push further than others are going. That necessarily means that hop bets in general (even three-way sevens) are not really part of my bag of tricks.
Quote: EvenBobI mentioned before that this argument is exactly
like the roulette argument that a dealer can sector
shoot the ball with incredible accuracy.
No it's not. I refuse to make any statements about roulette. But I fail to see any logic for conclusions relating to roulette being transitively applicable to the game of craps.
Actually, you would walk away from Bernie thinking he was a sweet guy to let you invest with him.
Quote: AhighFYI: I chose to block EvenBob, MrV, and SodaWater as they all seem to be familiar with how to circumvent the policies that are intended to avoid the negative effects of their behaviors (name calling, trolling, being annoying for no good reason, etc). So if it seems like I am ignoring them from this point forwards, I am.
What persuaded you to "unblock" us?
Face it: a bit of spirited argument about craps is not a bad thing.
"The crucible of conflict," etc.
Beats talking about losing weight, at least.
Quote: AhighBut I fail to see any logic for conclusions relating to roulette being transitively applicable to the game of craps.
Of course its the same thing. Neither can be proven,
yet both have rabid adherents on both issues. Both
involve extraordinary control of a physical object or
objects. Both have extensive hearsay evidence. Neither
has ever been shown in a real, sanctioned demonstration
to be true. I could go on and on, they're identical in
almost every way.
Quote: MrVWhat persuaded you to "unblock" us?
Face it: a bit of spirited argument about craps is not a bad thing.
"The crucible of conflict," etc.
Beats talking about losing weight, at least.
You are still blocked, but I look at your posts anyway.
I am not against debate, but honestly there is a point at which I have to throw my hands up in the air.
Last year, for example, I went off on the whole biased die thing and it ate up a ton of my time and resources.
At the end, I wished I had never thought about it.
And here we are a year later, and I'm already getting sucked into that vortex again.
Talking about how craps and roulette are similar or dissimilar to me is a tangent, for example.
I just feel like it's less of a debate and more of a sticky quagmire that is more like an excuse for a debate, and really just me pissing away my time.
I don't mind debating, I guess. I just get annoyed when I am ridiculed by those who really aren't offering up any help towards what I am trying to accomplish.
Rather than are just throwing on the blankets and yelling "blanket party here!"
I assumed it meant you could not read the public posts of anyone you "block?"
If it is narrower, e.g. if it only prevents "blocked" people from e-mailing you, well, no worries there: I don't e-mail / PM people on these forums.
But you'd best be advised that I am a determined critic of dice setting: my position in that regard is clear enough that I am BARRED (and perhaps BLOCKED as well, who knows?) from several dice setting boards due to my opinions and refusal to drink their Kool-Aid.
Were I them, I'd bar me too: nobody likes to be told, clearly and emphatically, that their belief system is based on superstition and delusion.
Quote: MrVHmmm ... well, then what is "blocking?"
I assumed it meant you could not read the public posts of anyone you "block?"
If it is narrower, e.g. if it only prevents "blocked" people from e-mailing you, well, no worries there: I don't e-mail / PM people on these forums.
But you'd best be advised that I am a determined critic of dice setting: my position in that regard is clear enough that I am BARRED (and perhaps BLOCKED as well, who knows?) from several dice setting boards due to my opinions and refusal to drink their Kool-Aid.
Were I them, I'd bar me too: nobody likes to be told, clearly and emphatically, that their belief system is based on superstition and delusion.
It just requires that I click a button to read your message. If you were truly blocked, I wouldn't be able to undo it even if I wanted to.
Quote: BuzzardActions speak louder than words. I watched you show last nigh. Any doubt I had about dice setting were removed. Seeing them in a static setting, bouncing and spinning all over hell.
Super. I wish I could make sense out of your statement, but it's apparent that you don't really understand that dice setting is not what gives you an advantage in the game.
My throws last night were absolutely horrific. There is no denying that fact. And not just the outcomes, they were generally horrible throws.
An advantage comes from a ton of events of well executed throws.
I had neither a ton of events, nor many well executed throws.
But I invite you to hold your beliefs firm if it helps you sleep at night.
One thing you hopefully realize about me is that I am being open and up front about what I'm doing. I plan to broadcast ALL of my recorded rolls from this point forwards.
Things got off to a bad start, but my 2200 or so rolls is still showing a profit for the strategy that I chose to look at for those rolls (pass line or come bet made on every roll, odds off on the comeout).
The ten strategy wasn't actually that horrible even though it had pretty aggressive pressure to try to make a big win.
But again, hopefully you guys realize that I'm being open, and I absolutely failed to turn a profit on that session.
Today at the Silverton I lost too. I'm pretty sure that all of the money that I lost today was the result of gambling and not anything to do with my ability or inability to get an edge though. I gambled and I lost. Most of the bets that I placed were on other people, and I failed miserably.
If I get to a point where I have ten thousand rolls and my percentage of sevens says 16.67, I may just hang up the whole thing. Last night was a horrible performance, and all I can do right now is hope that I can do better on future performances to make up for it.
But it might just be just as horrible from now until eternity for all I know.
We will see.
I think I may do a strategy where I work odds on the comeout and put $220 even working the comeout after a seven and just strictly focus on avoiding sevens on every single roll instead of worrying about rolling sevens sometimes on purpose.
This might help me hone in a bit to tune up a strategy that is a little less centric on the best edge and is more centric on getting paid more consistently every time a box number comes up.
A big part of the problem is the modality of the comeout roll is presenting challenges for coming up with a biased throw. I think ditching the comeout bias wanting to be different from the non-comeout bias would be good. It may cause what would be extremely lucky events to be unlucky, but I want to get luck out of the picture and look at edge of a larger number of samples.
I can scale this down at Main Street Station and test it possibly too with $5 buys on the four and ten working the comeout.
Quote: Ahigh
Things got off to a bad start, but my 2200 or so rolls is still showing a profit .
2200 is not enough to base anything on. 22,000, maybe.
I'm afraid were all just having fun with you. We'll all be
extremely surprised if you can do this and make money.
Surprised won't even cover it. You seem like a smart
enough guy, but you're putting the proverbial horse in
front of the cart, which makes you an open target for
those of us who've thru this with others on forums for
years. I'm sure V will back me up on this..
Quote: EvenBob"I've never heard of any of the so-called dice doctors, dice wizards, or famous multi-book dice-control authors getting thrown out of a casino because of their dice-tossing skills.
Ummm... they took the dice away from me at NYNY and I was pretty much asked to leave twice at Bellagio (once causing a fight between a table crew and a floor person) and MGM had a pit boss say to the boxman that if I ever missed the back wall even once I would not be allowed to throw the dice there again. And Im not even a dice controller. I only got lucky. LOL