Proper Bankroll
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1) When pressing your bet by 50% of the previous win is there a term that you would use when asking the dealer? Or is that stickman? Not sure the correct term.
2) I would like to determine the correct bankroll if I bet $10 pass line and and maxing the odds (3x4x5) and then placing the 6 and 8 ($10) with max odds once the shooter hits their number twice.
Quote: NmacrhI was looking for some advice on craps and luckily found this forum. I was hoping someone could help with a couple of questions.'
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1) When pressing your bet by 50% of the previous win is there a term that you would use when asking the dealer? Or is that stickman? Not sure the correct term.
2) I would like to determine the correct bankroll if I bet $10 pass line and and maxing the odds (3x4x5) and then placing the 6 and 8 ($10) with max odds once the shooter hits their number twice.
Good questions.
Your first question has to be refined. If you are betting $12 on the 6, and win $14, you cannot increase your bet by $7, which is 50% of the previous win. (I assume you know you bet $12, not $10, on the 8 or 6) If you want to bump it to $18, say so. If you do this a few times the dealer will figure it out and will do it for you, while tacitly asking you if it is ok.
Your second question needs more information, too. It depends on what your goal is. If your goal is to last at least 4 hours, with 90% certainty, there is one answer. If it is to have a 20% chance of making $1000, there is another answer. If it is to last long enough for 6 free drinks, it is another answer.
I am NOT the craps expert here. But if you learn a little bit, and can better ask questions, the members here will help you.
Quote: NmacrhI was looking for some advice on craps and luckily found this forum. I was hoping someone could help with a couple of questions.'
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1) When pressing your bet by 50% of the previous win is there a term that you would use when asking the dealer? Or is that stickman? Not sure the correct term.
2) I would like to determine the correct bankroll if I bet $10 pass line and and maxing the odds (3x4x5) and then placing the 6 and 8 ($10) with max odds once the shooter hits their number twice.
I agree that there is not enough information to answer your questions, but I would also suggest that rather than starting with max odds right out of the gate, you would be better off starting with smaller odds and pressing them if you win. This way you can make your bankroll last longer while getting a feel for the game, instead of risking being down too far at the start. You will not get killed as bad on a PSO situation either.
Do you mean a 10$ come bet on 6/8 with max odds, or placing... whatever on them? I'm rather hoping you don't mean table max...
2) This is something that even veterans struggle with. Your maximum money on the table at any given time, not counting presses, will be 10+50+24 or $84. 10x-20x is a commonly accepted amount, so you'd be ok with a grand. Just know that $1000 CAN get wiped out in 30 minutes. It happens to the best of us.
(Disclaimer) I play a very similar game, but $5 on the line, 5x odds, and $30 on both the 6 and 8. I've won a grand in an hour and lost $500 in 30 minutes.
When placing the 6 and 8, your bet will be a multiple of 6. This is because it pays 7:6, why the "unit" is 6 instead of 5.
"Split the 30 on the 9 into 12 on 6 and 8; fill in the hards and two on the field for you guys."
"...Okay. What?"
"Just take down the 9."
On a side note though, if you're playing on, say, a 25$min table and and a 5 to be raised a unit, how much do they bump it up by?
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI just say the amount of the bet I want. If I bet $30 and it wins I say "60 please" or "up to 60". If that hits I say "90". That way, there can be no confusion.
same here. a lot less frustrating to both me and the dealer.
as for the bankroll, here's my latest plan: 10x what i put on the table. (used to be 5x till the math showed me i was stupid lucky and i should up my bankroll before the math catches up with me.)
$10, 3/4/5x odds
avg bet = $50
6 numbers on table, thus on avg I estimate i will have $ on 3 of them thus 50 x 3 = 150
10x that is $1500
leave when you're up or down $1000.
i say down $1000 because you dont want to play with scared $. playing while scared = no fun.
Quote: Nmacrhthanks for all the great advice for a newbie. i had read on another forum that with a $1,000 bankroll for a session you set a loss limit of $500 and when at the loss limit leave the table and adjust your bets by half on another table. Is that something that you would do? If yes how do you adjust your betting noted above? Remove a number?
i used to do that. but effectively you're only playing with a 5x bankroll.
hm.. $1500 bankroll, leave when +/- 1000.
ie: Leave +/- 67%
$1000 bankroll. Leave +/- 500.
ie: LEave +/- 50%
Whats the risk of ruin for either?
Quote: Nmacrhthanks for all the great advice for a newbie. i had read on another forum that with a $1,000 bankroll for a session you set a loss limit of $500 and when at the loss limit leave the table and adjust your bets by half on another table. Is that something that you would do? If yes how do you adjust your betting noted above? Remove a number?
there's no strategy to it. craps is a negative-expectation game. so if you're gonna play it, play it in the way that maximizes your entertainment.
this is like asking what kind of snacks you should buy and where you should sit at the movies. you gotta do whatever makes you the happiest.
Quote: Nmacrhthanks for all the great advice for a newbie. i had read on another forum that with a $1,000 bankroll for a session you set a loss limit of $500 and when at the loss limit leave the table and adjust your bets by half on another table. Is that something that you would do? If yes how do you adjust your betting noted above? Remove a number?
Pressing increases variance significantly. Of course this all depends on how much you press. My recommendation, if you're getting slaughtered, is to not press. This goes counter to what you naturally will want to do, increase your variance by betting more, but you won't run into a "ruin" situation as easily. The only problem with this is that you're less likely to make up the losses from when you were pressing.
Another easy fix is to lower the odds on your pass line.
Your scheme can easily lose $500 in less than an hour, just keep that in mind. I'm not saying it's a bad thing, I do something similar, but be prepared to leave at that point. I'd recommend you find a $5 table, that $10/$50 can be brutal.
Quote: Nmacrhthanks for all the great advice for a newbie. i had read on another forum that with a $1,000 bankroll for a session you set a loss limit of $500 and when at the loss limit leave the table and adjust your bets by half on another table. Is that something that you would do? If yes how do you adjust your betting noted above? Remove a number?
It doesn't matter what money management you use. You're playing a -EV game so you will eventually lose all your money anyway. The only real question is, what's your goal? If you want your money to last a long time then bet small. If you want a chance to win some real money then press like crazy. Above all, if your "bankroll" is $1000 then be prepared to lose all $1000. If you're not, then bet with less.
Also, moving from one table to another doesn't do anything; the odds are the same at all the tables. You cold just cut your stakes in half at the current table if you wanted to use the technique you mentioned above.
$1,000 Bankroll with a loss limit of $500 ..... So buy in for $1,000 then put five black chips in your pocket and play with the remaining $500 ..... Every time your Dealer colors up a bet to a black $100 slip it into your pocket .... never take any black out of your pocket .....
Have fun and no matter what you'll walk away with at least 1/2 of your bankroll and more importantly you won't feel broke or defeated ...... Ready for another craps session .....
I can't tell you how many players will put $10 on the pass line and then either not play odds or just put $5 or $10 behind the line ...... Better to put $5 on line and $10-$15 behind, you will win more .....
Quote: MsNiceGirlI can't tell you how many players will put $10 on the pass line and then either not play odds or just put $5 or $10 behind the line ...... Better to put $5 on line and $10-$15 behind, you will win more .....
Or, better yet, the guy at the far end of the table teaching his friend about why it's good to bet the Big6/8 (with 6$, no less!)...
Quote: MsNiceGirlI also put the lowest amount directly on the pass and come lines and add the most odds I can afford or feel comfortable playing ......
I can't tell you how many players will put $10 on the pass line and then either not play odds or just put $5 or $10 behind the line ...... Better to put $5 on line and $10-$15 behind, you will win more .....
Of course, if you don't make a come bet and put that money on pass odds instead, you lower your expected loss to .1414 of your pass bet. But maybe that's boring.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Quote: MsNiceGirl
$1,000 Bankroll with a loss limit of $500 ..... So buy in for $1,000 then put five black chips in your pocket and play with the remaining $500 ..... Every time your Dealer colors up a bet to a black $100 slip it into your pocket .... never take any black out of your pocket .....
Have fun and no matter what you'll walk away with at least 1/2 of your bankroll and more importantly you won't feel broke or defeated ...... Ready for another craps session .....
It has always seemed strange to me to buy in for $1000 when you only are willing to lose $500. Whom are you kidding? Also, if you figure your risk of ruin using $1000, but are only willing to lose $500, your figures are completely wrong!
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Quote: SOOPOO
Your second question needs more information, too. It depends on what your goal is. If your goal is to last at least 4 hours, with 90% certainty, there is one answer. If it is to have a 20% chance of making $1000, there is another answer. If it is to last long enough for 6 free drinks, it is another answer.
I am NOT the craps expert here. But if you learn a little bit, and can better ask questions, the members here will help you.
The first question is, how much are you willing to lose? There's not much point in buying in for more than that amount. If you come up with a figure for that, then you can devise a betting strategy based upon other factors: 1) how long do you want to play 2) how much risk of losing your stake will you tolerate 3) is there an amount of winnings that would satisfy you and make you walk away?
However, since we don't have that information, let's start with your betting strategy.
Your method of play:
$10 pass, 3, 4, 5X odds: average bet will be $37.78
place 6 and 8 $10 with max odds: this does not make sense, as there are no odds on place bets and you need to be in units of $6 to get paid correctly
Let's assume $12 on each, for $24
However, this is only when the shooter "hits his number twice"; I assume that means the shooter makes two points. According to the Wizard's data on the Fire Bet, only about 14-15% of shooters make more than one point, i.e. two or more points, so you won't be making those bets that often, given your conditions. So, call that 24 * .15 = $3.60. But, you probably won't want to place the point, and there's a 41.7% chance that the point will be either 6 or 8, so cut that down to $2.85.
The average shooter rolls 2.52 comeouts before sevening out, so for each shooter we figure:
2.52 * $37.78 = $95.21
$2.85
So, that about $98 per shooter, not considering any pressing of the place bets. If the casino gets 100 rolls/hour, and the average shooter lasts 8.52 rolls, that's about 24 shooters in two hours, for a total bet handle of roughly $2350.
Since the place bets are such a small part of the betting, I just simulated the pass betting, using a bankroll of $300 and stopping betting after 200 rolls. The bankroll was lost 9.6% of the 20,000 sessions. With a $350 bankroll, the bust rate was 5.3%. These figures will go up a bit with the place bets.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Looks like you ran your sims with a $5 flat instead of $10.Quote: goatcabinYour method of play:
$10 pass, 3, 4, 5X odds: average bet will be $37.78
place 6 and 8 $10 with max odds: this does not make sense, as there are no odds on place bets and you need to be in units of $6 to get paid correctly
Let's assume $12 on each, for $24
Since the place bets are such a small part of the betting, I just simulated the pass betting, using a bankroll of $300 and stopping betting after 200 rolls. The bankroll was lost 9.6% of the 20,000 sessions. With a $350 bankroll, the bust rate was 5.3%. These figures will go up a bit with the place bets.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
That would make for a 60 unit bankroll to start with.
(I thought I was the only one that did that)
My pass table shows a 60 unit buy-in with a bust rate about 10% for 60 bets (about 200 rolls)
Simulation of Craps Pass Line Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 3x, 4x, 5x
Session Bankroll . . . = 60.00
Max. Decisions to quit = 60
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Starting Random seed . = 123321
Avg. No. games played . = 58.34
Avg. No. games won . . = 28.76
Avg. No. games lost . . = 29.58
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 196.89
Avg. Total amount bet . = 58.34
Avg. amount bet on Odds = 160.35
Bankroll was busted . . = 9.983% of the time ( 99835)
Session Bankroll . . . = 30.00
Max. Decisions to quit = 60
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Starting Random seed . = 123321
Avg. No. games played . = 47.99
Avg. No. games won . . = 23.66
Avg. No. games lost . . = 24.33
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 161.97
Avg. Total amount bet . = 47.99
Avg. amount bet on Odds = 126.27
Bankroll was busted . . = 41.253% of the time ( 412530)
Skew of ending bankroll = 0.89
ev: -8.5
sd: 381
These show about 22% chance to bust $300 but way too much skew in 60 bets with 345X odds.
Excel =NORMDIST(300,-8.5,381,TRUE)
Come on OP, more information!
You gots guys wanting to run sims 4u
Quote: 7crapsLooks like you ran your sims with a $5 flat instead of $10.
That would make for a 60 unit bankroll to start with.
(I thought I was the only one that did that)
Whoops!!! You are RIGHT. Those figures are for $600 and $700 bankrolls. Bzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzt!! to me!
Thanks,
Alan Shank
I'll take $3,000 to play with, 10 pass, max odds all the time and buy the 4 & 10 at $25 ($26?) each.
How quickly will I lose it all? :)
Here's one way to have the best chance of winning that is counter-intuitive:
Challenge yourself to LOSE ALL OF YOUR MONEY, but require that you lose it all in fewer than a maximum number of bets and further require that all bets be as low or lower than a place bet on the 6 or the 8.
You can quit any time you like before that number of events, but if you go over that number of events and you have not lost all of your money but have not comes out AHEAD, you must CONTINUE TO TRY TO LOSE IT ALL IN AS FEW BETS AS POSSIBLE.
This is a counter-intuitive betting approach that hinges on the fact that you cannot affect, in general, your ability to win or lose.
Leverage this fact by actually TRYING to lose, but disallow ANY bet with an edge above 1.6% per bet-event. This includes placing the 5 or 9 or the field or hardways or any other single-roll bets.
For craps, that means pass line, don't pass, come, don't come, odds, lay odds, place the 6, place the 8, buy the four or buy the 10, and PARLAY PARLAY PARLAY PARLAY.
Just TRY to lose your damn money.
The hilarious thing is that it is JUST AS HARD TO LOSE YOUR MONEY WITH A LOW EDGE BET AS IT IS TO WIN!
The more intent you are on losing, ironically, the bigger you may bet and the more quickly you are willing to attempt to get done with your session.
It's easier to get lucky on fewer events because that's how things work.
If you think it's easy to just bet it all on a $1000 buy on the 4 and lose everything, you will find out it works most of the time. The other times, you almost triple your money! Then try to lose all of that the same way, and you could end up with almost ten times what you were trying to get rid of in the first place!!
It does happen. And getting 9x with a combined edge below 2.5% that way sure beats a single $1000 hard 8 on the edge that ends up letting the casino keep more of what your luck earned you.
There are smarter bets with lower ev. But the place 5 or 9 are smarter bets than some other bets.Quote: SantaQThis is absolutely fascinating... I don't have the sim but am curious. After reading a few posts I see that placing the 5 and 9 are deemed to be "not so smart."
If you have more fun playing those, that is smart.
Just understand you can lose more money betting on them more times than other bets. Your choice.
I happen to have a few sims for a "play until bust" scenariosQuote: SantaQI'll take $3,000 to play with, 10 pass, max odds all the time and buy the 4 & 10 at $25 ($26?) each.
How quickly will I lose it all? :)
parameters
$3k bank
$10 pass, 345X odds
Buy 4/10 for $25 each with $1 vig paid on a win.
Buys and place bets not working on the come out roll.
Max session length 50,000 rolls.
2,000 sessions (yeah, should be longer)
(I have others for less rolls too)
Made it to 50,000 rolls and stopped: 174 or 8.7%
1826 busted out or could not make a full bet to continue the session.
average # of rolls: 14,020
median: 7023
lowest: 412
1000 rolls or less: 78 games or 3.9%
2000 rolls or less: 283 or 14.15%
I also see you mentioned in another post you like to play with $54/52 across
pass and max odds. Popular way to play for many.
I have sim data for that also. 345x odds only.
2,000 sessions
Made it to 50,000 rolls and stopped: 2 or 0.1%
1998 busted out or could not make a full bet to continue the session.
average # of rolls: 6743
median: 4224
lowest: 257
1000 rolls or less: 101 games or 5.05%
2000 rolls or less: 413 or 20.65%
another method of play and some results
Now bet $0 on place 5 and 9, same $12 on 6&8 but Buy the 4 and 10 for $20
You will get some strange looks for this play.
parameters
$3k bank
$10 pass, 345X odds
Buy 4/10 for $20 each with $1 vig paid on a win.
Buys and place bets not working on the come out roll.
2,000 sessions
Made it to 50,000 rolls and stopped: 82 or 4.1%
1918 busted out or could not make a full bet to continue the session.
average # of rolls: 10,787
median: 5380
lowest: 313
1000 rolls or less: 104 games or 5.2%
2000 rolls or less: 405 or 20.25%
Good Luck on your next trip
Quote: 7crapsThere are smarter bets with lower ev. But the place 5 or 9 are smarter bets than some other bets.
If you have more fun playing those, that is smart.
Just understand you can lose more money betting on them more times than other bets. Your choice.
I happen to have a few sims for a "play until bust" scenarios
parameters
$3k bank
$10 pass, 345X odds
Buy 4/10 for $25 each with $1 vig paid on a win.
Buys and place bets not working on the come out roll.
Max session length 50,000 rolls.
2,000 sessions (yeah, should be longer)
(I have others for less rolls too)
Made it to 50,000 rolls and stopped: 174 or 8.7%
1826 busted out or could not make a full bet to continue the session.
average # of rolls: 14,020
median: 7023
lowest: 412
1000 rolls or less: 78 games or 3.9%
2000 rolls or less: 283 or 14.15%
I also see you mentioned in another post you like to play with $54/52 across
pass and max odds. Popular way to play for many.
I have sim data for that also. 345x odds only.
2,000 sessions
Made it to 50,000 rolls and stopped: 2 or 0.1%
1998 busted out or could not make a full bet to continue the session.
average # of rolls: 6743
median: 4224
lowest: 257
1000 rolls or less: 101 games or 5.05%
2000 rolls or less: 413 or 20.65%
another method of play and some results
Now bet $0 on place 5 and 9, same $12 on 6&8 but Buy the 4 and 10 for $20
You will get some strange looks for this play.
parameters
$3k bank
$10 pass, 345X odds
Buy 4/10 for $20 each with $1 vig paid on a win.
Buys and place bets not working on the come out roll.
2,000 sessions
Made it to 50,000 rolls and stopped: 82 or 4.1%
1918 busted out or could not make a full bet to continue the session.
average # of rolls: 10,787
median: 5380
lowest: 313
1000 rolls or less: 104 games or 5.2%
2000 rolls or less: 405 or 20.25%
Good Luck on your next trip
Awesome... let's see if I understand...
So what I've "bolded" seems to be the fewest busts and therefore the best chance of playing the longest? But really, the difference isn't monumental but certainly material?
-N
Yes, I agree.Quote: SantaQBut really, the difference isn't monumental but certainly material?
-N
The chance of not lasting 1000 rolls is about the same for all 3 methods.
The median (the 50/50, you have a coin flip chance of getting past the value) is different
7023
4224
5380
Method 2 shows almost zero chance of even lasting to 50,000 rolls.
This would have to cover many sessions played. 500 hours @ 100 rolls per hour
or 125 4-hour sessions
I believe a full craps table averages about 80 rolls per hour.
On a table by yourself, you can pace about 120 throws per hour.
So, if we take an average of 100 rolls per hour, 50,000 rolls is 500 HOURS of craps
If we look at the average number of rolls, we see a low of 6,700 rolls, up to 14,000 rolls.
So for a $3,000 Buy in, we on average can play for 67 HOURS, up to 140 HOURS before we would lose a $3,000 Buy in.
When I go away for a craps weekend to Biloxi, I play craps like a fool, but I still only manage about 20 hours of craps in a 3 day period.
This gives you a reasonable idea of what is going to happen with your $3,000 Buy-in, (you are going to likely lose it all somewhere between 60 and 140 hours later, depending on how you are betting). And the comparison of the different bets is pretty cool, because you can see how it affects the potential longevity of your buy-in.
However, as I have written frequently, while Placing the 5/9 seems to be a bad bet at 4%, if you are on a table where a 5 and 9 are coming up more often than 8 times out of every 36 throws, you are going to be mighty glad you were playing that 'bad' bet. On the other hand, if the 5 and 9 show up 7 times or less every 36 throws, then you are saving money by not betting it, and you have more to throw at the other numbers that are perhaps coming up instead.
Unfortunately, the best winning bet for a boxcar is a field bet!
Craps is built upon the type of character who wants to make money on each throw of the dice.
Patience is key to getting both a better chance to win as well as a more enjoyable lasting experience along the way.
Don't bet the 5 or the 9 is a simple rule that I follow.
I don't bet the field either.
But I do bet hardways for small amounts (no more than I would normally tip the dealers).
If you want to win on every roll, look up the iron cross. The edge per roll could be worse actually, especially if you include buy bets on the 4 and 10.
But you will pay for that lower edge by requiring more money on the felt to get the lower combined edge.
The place bets for 6&8 should be $12 as pointed out earlier.Quote: NmacrhI would like to determine the correct bankroll if I bet $10 pass line and and maxing the odds (3x4x5) and then placing the 6 and 8 ($10) with max odds once the shooter hits their number twice.
once the shooter hits their number twice?? Huh
exactly what do this mean. use an example
Is it he rolls a number and sets the point.
He then rolls two more numbers (any # but 7)
then you make place bets on 6&8??
The bankroll is understandable.Quote: NmacrhI antcipate 3 sessions over 3 days with $1,500 allotted per session.
Therefore the $1,500 would be the loss limit each day.
I also press each win by half the amount I just won
The press is still a little unclear as a few others have pointed out.
You have $12 Place6. A win pays $14. Half is $7 but you should keep the units to $6 for correct payouts
You go up to $18. A win pays $21. You can go up to $24 with $6, to $30 with $12. Not exactly half of your win at $10.50.
You go up to $30. A win pays $35. Half is $17.50. So you would go up $18 to $48.
You go up to $48. A win pays $56 Half is $28. You want to go up $24 or $30??
Round up to nearest $6 would be a simple solution if that is how you play.
These are also Alan's questions
would help if you answered them
1) how long do you want to play
(session length per day. 4 hours, only 2, max 8-wow a killer session)
2) how much risk of losing your stake will you tolerate
50% (half of you sessions end in complete Ruin)
10% 1 in 10
5% or 1 in 20
1% or less?
3) is there an amount of winnings that would satisfy you and make you walk away?
Like double your $1500 in one session.
Do you stop and play again tomorrow??? or put half away and continue playing with a higher bankroll
See you at the tables
I also have the nice set up where my normal casino gives me a vig on the win for the 4,5,9, and 10. This means the Buy 5/9 is reduced to a 2% HE bet. AND, they round down on the vigs, so my real HE is even less if you make bets to take advantage of the extra $.50.
So I have the advantage of playing Across, at the following HE:
Buy 4/10 - 1.667%
Buy 5/9 - 2.00%
Place 6/8 - 1.52%
I win something on 24 chances (4,5,6,8,9,10).
I lose everything on 6 chances (7 out)
I have no decision on 6 chances (2,3,11,12)
I get cheated by an unfair pay schedule on 24 of the 36 chances. My cost of playing.
Your numbers look good.Quote: RaleighCrapsWhat 7craps is showing you is what is going to happen at 50,000 rolls.
My simulation was to
1)"play until busted"
or
2)Having less than $50 left (you could not make a complete bet)
or
3)surviving to 50,000 rolls with the initial $3k bank.
If you made it to 50k rolls, the last pass line bet would resolve and a new session would start.
about 1 in 20 players made it to 50k rolls with the Buy bets.
The place bettors hardly ever did.
All 3 scenarios would end the session.
So I do not have to look it up,Quote: RaleighCrapsI will admit that I like action. I don't have to win on every throw, and I do not like the iron cross, because you have an offsetting loss when the 5,6, and 8 roll.
I also have the nice set up where my normal casino gives me a vig on the win for the 4,5,9, and 10. This means the Buy 5/9 is reduced to a 2% HE bet. AND, they round down on the vigs, so my real HE is even less if you make bets to take advantage of the extra $.50.
So I have the advantage of playing Across, at the following HE:
Buy 4/10 - 1.667%
Buy 5/9 - 2.00%
Place 6/8 - 1.52%
what are your bets you make when you play craps and with any presses??
pass/odds/across and press after?
bets start at $25
Do you lower your bets at any point during a hand?
I think you use a $2k session bank? I do not remember
Quote: 7crapsYour numbers look good.
My simulation was to
1)"play until busted"
or
2)Having less than $50 left (you could not make a complete bet)
or
3)surviving to 50,000 rolls with the initial $3k bank.
If you made it to 50k rolls, the last pass line bet would resolve and a new session would start.
1 in 20 players made it to 50k rolls with the Buy bets.
The place bettors hardly ever did.
All 3 scenarios would end the session.
As we have all stated a hundred times, we all know where out lifetime sessions are going to end.........
But your questions to another poster about their goal got me thinking about a simulation I have not yet run.
If your goal is to DOUBLE your buy-in, what is the BEST way to bet to accomplish that?
A slow grind of PL bet with odds doesn't seem likely to hit your goal.
A PL with full odds, Come bet with full odds, always working needs someone to throw A LOT of numbers, with NO 7. You could not work the odds, and hope the 7s show up as Come Out roll 7s, which would only cost you your base come bet.
I suppose the answer could be a martingale system on the DP is your best bet to DOUBLE your buy-in,
As a criteria, I suppose you could stipulate that you wanted to double up within 200 rolls (2-3 hour session).
Have you ever looked at the various bets with this criteria ?
I am willing to bet $1 that Alan has saved all of his simulations, he has done some really great ones over the years, and has them neatly organized and backed-up.Quote: RaleighCrapsThis gives you a reasonable idea of what is going to happen with your $3,000 Buy-in, (you are going to likely lose it all somewhere between 60 and 140 hours later, depending on how you are betting).
And the comparison of the different bets is pretty cool, because you can see how it affects the potential longevity of your buy-in.
I wish that was me, but I am getting much better at it.
There should be a place for them all or at least an index of where they could be found.
Our Blogs here would be a good place for them to rest
Quote: 7crapsSo I do not have to look it up,
what are your bets you make when you play craps and with any presses??
pass/odds/across and press after?
bets start at $25
Do you lower your bets at any point during a hand?
I think you use a $2k session bank? I do not remember
Typical buy-in is 1k, but that is too low, so I bust out more than I should (although I usually get 4-6 hours of play on that buy-in)
Generally $10 PL bet, with 4x-5x odds. I will start taking the max 10x odds if I am up, or if a shooter has made 2 points.
Then bet across. Placing the 4/10 is out of the question at 6.7% HE, so minimum of $20 on 4 and 10, usually $25.
6 and 8 will get $12 each, or $30 each, again depending on if I am up.
5 and 9 get $20 or $30 each. I will always bet even numbers to get the full 3/2 pay for the Buy bet.
So minimum is roughly $94 across, or if I am up a bit, $130 across.
I never lower a bet (I have gotten tired of losing huge money on long rolls that I have been pressing, so I am looking into this).
I will take a couple of pays on any number, and then I will start pressing.
Press is usually 1/2 of the first win, and then $30 presses after that.
Once I hit ~$120 bet, presses will go to $60, and then to $100
Quote: RaleighCrapsAs we have all stated a hundred times, we all know where out lifetime sessions are going to end.........
No, we don't. There will be outliers who are lifetime winners.
Quote: RaleighCrapsBut your questions to another poster about their goal got me thinking about a simulation I have not yet run.
If your goal is to DOUBLE your buy-in, what is the BEST way to bet to accomplish that?
Bet your entire bankroll on the pass or don't pass. You have a 49.3% chance of doubling it.
Quote: RaleighCrapsA slow grind of PL bet with odds doesn't seem likely to hit your goal.
A PL with full odds, Come bet with full odds, always working needs someone to throw A LOT of numbers, with NO 7. You could not work the odds, and hope the 7s show up as Come Out roll 7s, which would only cost you your base come bet.
I suppose the answer could be a martingale system on the DP is your best bet to DOUBLE your buy-in,
As a criteria, I suppose you could stipulate that you wanted to double up within 200 rolls (2-3 hour session).
Have you ever looked at the various bets with this criteria ?
My guess is that a table-minimum pass bet with lots and lots of odds would give you the best shot.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
"Bet it all on DP on craps, BUT follow these steps for a sure fire winner."Quote: RaleighCrapsIf your goal is to DOUBLE your buy-in, what is the BEST way to bet to accomplish that?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/11099-what-s-my-best-strategy-to-double-a-2000-bankroll/
My choice is the same.
Bold play.
One big bet does give you the best chance (highest probability) of doubling a bankroll.
But for most, no fun in it
There have been some tables created over the years.Quote: RaleighCrapsAs a criteria, I suppose you could stipulate that you wanted to double up within 200 rolls (2-3 hour session).
Have you ever looked at the various bets with this criteria ?
You can take any betting method and give it a time limit and see how it does.
All methods to exactly double a bankroll will be below a 50% chance of success.
Some way below
Quote: 7crapsI am willing to bet $1 that Alan has saved all of his simulations, he has done some really great ones over the years, and has them neatly organized and backed-up.
In your dreams!!
Just another bad bet, 7Craps!
I have a large number of WinCraps .glg files and also output from my own programs on an external hard drive, but they are not organized nor indexed.
Thanks for you high opinion, though! >:-)
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Quote: 7crapsI happen to have a few sims for a "play until bust" scenarios
parameters
$3k bank
$10 pass, 345X odds
Buy 4/10 for $25 each with $1 vig paid on a win.
Buys and place bets not working on the come out roll.
Max session length 50,000 rolls.
2,000 sessions (yeah, should be longer)
(I have others for less rolls too)
7craps, would you please calculate the probability of busting an $8,000 bankroll, $5 PL, two $5 come bets, 10x odds on each, 12 hours of play? My guess is that the probability is very near zero.
I disagree.Quote: AhighThe hilarious thing is that it is JUST AS HARD TO LOSE YOUR MONEY WITH A LOW EDGE BET AS IT IS TO WIN!
I did it.
Nah, not near zero, but close. I estimate almost 2σ to the left. So should happen about 6% of the time. Then again, craps is not a standard normal distribution, and I'm just guessing...Quote: Headlock7craps, would you please calculate the probability of busting an $8,000 bankroll, $5 PL, two $5 come bets, 10x odds on each, 12 hours of play? My guess is that the probability is very near zero.
I agree.Quote: Headlock7craps, would you please calculate the probability of busting an
$8,000 bankroll,
$5 PL,
two $5 come bets,
10x odds on each,
12 hours of play?
My guess is that the probability is very near zero.
And your lucky day.
I have a sim for $5 flat bets and 10X odds and max 2 come bets for 1000 rolls and $8k Bank.
added: Checking the code for this sim it looks like the odds are not working on the come out roll.
The bust rate is 0.0% (100k sessions)
and to lose $4000 (lose 50%) is about 1%
and to lose $3000 or more about 4.3%
48.5% chance of ending even or ahead.
EV: -$53
SD: 1710
so the bust rate is about
1.4622E-06 or
1 in 683,899
hate to be that 1
------------------------------
To calculate this.
1000 rolls/3.375 rolls per decision = 297 pass line bets (on average)
1.413 come bets per pass line bet resolved = 297 * 1.413 = 420
420+297 = 717 total line bets (on average)
EV of about -$51
To calculate the SD is more challenging.
I use the sim data
I also show a SD of $1447 for 717 individual bets. But the 3 line bets do resolve at different times.
A $1710 SD comes from 1000 such individual bets.(the number of rolls)
Leave it at that for now
-------------------------------
I also have a sim for $10 flat bets and 10X odds and max 2 come bets for 1000 rolls and $8k Bank.
The bust rate is 1.6% and to
lose $4000 (lose 50%) is about 13%
and to lose $3000 or more about 20%
48.36% chance of ending even or ahead.
I even added some data to one of your Blogs.
I will update it after my work week.
Good Luck
Quote: AhighThe hilarious thing is that it is JUST AS HARD TO LOSE YOUR MONEY WITH A LOW EDGE BET AS IT IS TO WIN!
But with a low edge (ev) and a high variance bet like teddysQuote: teddysI disagree.
I did it.
When one really over bets a bankroll, it is quite easy or at least your chances of busting are very high
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/12558-really-blew-out-my-bankroll/9/#post208658
Good Luck
Quote: CrapsForeverWhat is the probability of a player losing $30,000 in 15 hours betting $25 Pass Line with $125 Odds with Continuous $25 Come Bets with $125 Odds?
My 2 cents.
Pretty soon you're working with $450 up all the time. You certainly need $5k in my experience. I would say $10k would a safe bankroll for a session of 2-4 hours, so losing $30k in 15 hrs is certainly do-able. Having to go with my gut, I'd say only about 5% chance it'd go to zero.
