REALLY blew out my bankroll
Quote: boymimboI don't get the calculation. On a 4 and 10, you win 2x units 1/3 of the time and lose 1x units 2/3s of the time. (1/3*2 - 2/3) = 0. Free odds.
Or on all the points, the odds of winning a point is .40606 paying on average 0 units. The issue is bankroll and variance. Because points are hit much less than 50% of the time, there is a much higher likelihood of long streaks of hitting no points and draining one's bankroll.
He's quoting Alan Mendelson. We spent years and millions of words trying to convince "MoneyLA" (Alan) that the odds bets were "free". If the problem is that you lose them more often than you win them, then why not bet DP/DC and LAY the odds, so you have a better-than-50% chance of winning those bets? He just could never get it into his head that the probability of winning is exactly balanced by the payoffs, on either side.
Yes, there is no player advantage to these bets. But there is a player advantage to every other bet you can make at the craps table.
The idea of variance is over this guy's head, I'm afraid.
I ran a WinCraps Pro sim recently of $5 DP laying 20x odds. It ran for a long time and the "player" was still ahead. This can happen because the variance is so high and the expected loss (.01414 of ONLY the flat bets) is so small, relative to the variance. The sim was broken into sessions, with a $1600 bankroll and $500 win goal, plus some number of rolls or decisions as the other stopping condition. The net loss on the flat DP was $68,540, but the net win on the odds was $373,388, out of a total bet handle of about 134 1/2 million dollars. Session results ranged from losing the whole $1600 to winning $600.
How can this be? Because the ev for one of these bets is -$.07, that's seven cents, and the standard deviation is $105.48, that's over a HUNDRED DOLLARS. Even after 10,000 bets, the ev is just -$701.30 but the SD is $10,547. So, it only takes 6.6% of one SD to break even (or, if it's on the negative side, to be down $1400).
Cheers,
Alan Shank
"Yes, there is no player advantage to these bets. But there is a player advantage to every other bet you can make at the craps table".
Just which bets on the table exactly do the players have an advantage over the casino?
dicesetter
Quote: dicesittergoatcabin
"Yes, there is no player advantage to these bets. But there is a player advantage to every other bet you can make at the craps table".
Just which bets on the table exactly do the players have an advantage over the casino?
dicesetter
Whooops! Make that a casino advantage. Duh!
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Quote: dicesittergoatcabin
"Yes, there is no player advantage to these bets. But there is a player advantage to every other bet you can make at the craps table".
Just which bets on the table exactly do the players have an advantage over the casino?
dicesetter
All of them... Don't play them =P. I love, and play, craps... Just imagining the response.
