Probability of making a point?

I remember reading this number somewhere, but I forgot where. Does anyone know what the probability of making any point is? (Assuming the button is off and the point hasn't been established yet)

And while you're answering that, what is the probability of losing a point, with the button off and no point established yet?

24 ways to roll a box.

10/24 for a 6 or 8
8/24 for a 5 or 9
6/24 for a 4 or 10

chance of making a

six or eight is 5/11
five or nine is 4/10
four or ten is 3/9

so

10/24 * 5/11 + 8/24 * 4/10 + 6/24 * 3/9 = .4060606060

Just a guess, I'm no pro!

Probability of losing a point is 1.0 - .406060606 = .5939393939

Yes! I remember the .40606 repeating number
Thanks a lot!

This is not really the probability of making a point. This is the probability of making a point, given that a point is established (ie, it's a conditional probability). The second part is important :)

I'd say that, on a come-out roll, the probabilities are:

Win with no point (7 or 11): 8 / 36 = 0.22222....
Lose with no point (2, 3, or 12): 4 / 36 = 0.11111....
Win with a point = 0.2707070....
Lose with a point = 0.39595959.....

You have to pass the dice in order to not establish a point, bra.

Naaah. Just keep rolling 7s and 11s until the casino runs out of chips...

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Naaah. Just keep rolling 7s and 11s until the casino runs out of chips...

yea but whats the fun in that.. the thrill for me is establishing points taking max odds and making the point... does anyone know what the odds are of actually hitting a fire bet, whether it be for 4,5, or the whole 6 points? I just started playing recently and have made three different points on a roll 3 times so far... just curious.

Check the Wizard of Odds site: here

Quote: Doc

Check the Wizard of Odds site: here

You list the odds of making the fire bet, which is not the odds of making a point; it is the odds of making multiple points.
This is listed at Fivecardcharlie.net/learning craps.

Assuming there is a point: If the point were 5 or 9, you would be a 3:2 underdog (6 combinations against : 4 combinations each), and your odds would pay 3:2. If the point were 6 or 8, you would be a 6:5 underdog and your odds would pay 6:5. For the four and ten, it is 6 cominations of making a seven out, and 3 combinations each of making the point.

Since the odds bet are at true odds, they also reveal the probability of making the point; it is the odds of making multiple points.

Quote: Paigowdan

You list the odds of making the fire bet, which is not the odds of making a point; it is the odds of making multiple points.

Of course. I was specifically replying to the question in the post right above mine.