Dark Side Strategies

Hey, all. I'm still new to the boards here.

I've been following the Wizard's site for a couple months now trying to learn about craps. In my opinion, he does a great job explaining why the Dark Side is statistically the better option. I've even watched his video on YouTube about how he suggests betting DP / DC with 6X Odds backing each bet. I can understand, generally, why you would want to milk these odds for all they're worth and have spent hours practicing on the WoO's craps simulator and on my cell phone's craps app (also Bovada's, but they don't seem to allow 6X Odds for some reason). Using the Wizard's method, I am usually able to double my money pretty consistently and have had a lot of fun with it to the point where I consider myself a true Darksider. :)

If you'd rather not read through this whole post and just cut to the chase, I've listed several possible betting strategies in the poll above and would like some feedback on which you think are more effective.

My question, however, is in regards to an answer the Wizard gave on his section on craps:

Quote:

Let’s say you have a $10 don’t pass bet and the point is a 4. You have a 2/3 chance of winning the bet, so the expected value is (2/3)*$10 + (1/3)*-$10 =$ 10/3 = $3.33. Now consider adding a $40 odds bet on top of it. Now you have a 2/3 chance of winning $30 and a 1/3 chance of losing $50. The expected value of both bets combined is (2/3)*$30 + (1/3)*-$50 = $10/3 = $3.33. So either way your expected gain is 3 dollars and 33 cents. With the don’t pass alone the player edge is $3.33/$10 = 33.33%. With the don’t pass and odds the player edge is $3.33/$50 = 6.67%. So, yes, the player edge as a percentage drops by making the odds bet. However that player edge is effective over more money. The way I think gamblers should view the house edge is as the price to pay for entertainment. If you want to pay as little as possible then taking or laying the odds is getting entertainment for free.

If I am understanding this correctly, the expected payout of a Dark Side player is $3.33 per bet, regardless of whether you take odds or not, and that the Wizard only recommends taking odds because you effectively see more action for the same price.

So far, I've found 100-units worth of bankroll to be quite comfortable in dealing with any hot streaks; though I imagine that when I go to the tables, I will likely only have 20- to 40-units of bankroll, so I have been practicing with that as well. Thus, I have been trying to push the limits of Dark Side betting to see what the minimum I need to take with me is, while still feeling comfortable.

Assuming the above is true regarding $3.33 gain per roll regardless of whether you take odds or not, it would seem that I can get the same effect by just playing DP / DC without odds and not break my bank. Is my thinking correct? It'd help to know the odds to see how much luck has affected my practice runs.

This also got me thinking on some other Darksider strategies and what the best Darksider system might be, for high or low bankroll. One appealing system I saw on www.crapsforum.com was to bet one unit on Pass and one on DP to effectively nullify the effect of the come out roll, losing one unit every 36 rolls, on average, due to the 12 Bar. Once the point is made, however, the odds are in the favor of the DP and so you lay odds. This gets more convoluted for balancing the DC, so for now I've chosen to just stick with those two. But the overall idea is in hedging your bets, while still capitalizing on the DP's advantage using odds after the point is made. The reward is less, but so is the risk, it seems.

Here, I have tried laying 6X Odds - as the Wizard suggests - on the DP, but I found that this requires a much heftier bankroll and have started playing instead with 2X Odds on the 6,8; 4X Odds on the 5,9; and 6X Odds on the 4,10. This is a lot kinder to my bankroll, but I am wondering which set of odds in this case has the better, well ... odds, as well as the better payout. Also, how these two methods stack up against the DP / DC and DP / DC with Odds methods.

So just to recap, some things I'm trying to focus on:

- Darksider betting.
- Odds vs. no Odds.
- Neutralizing the Come Out.
- Accounting for small bankroll.
- Minimizing House Edge.
- Maximizing return on investment.

Any feedback on this would be great. Thanks in advance. :)

Quote: Vulgrim

My question, however, is in regards to an answer the Wizard gave on his section on craps:

If I am understanding this correctly, the expected payout of a Dark Side player is $3.33 per bet, regardless of whether you take odds or not, and that the Wizard only recommends taking odds because you effectively see more action for the same price.

You are NOT understanding what the Wizard wrote.
He was comparing a dont4 ONCE it made it to the number4 to the same bets WITH Lay Odds.
This was to show that the EV of laying the odds does not change compared to not laying the odds. Duh.

$3.33 is just for a dont4 or 10 after it is on the number.
Do the math to see what it is BEFORE it gets to the number.
Hint: 8 ways to lose $X and 3 ways to win $X


Also your Doey/Don't system is just that, another system.
It has been discussed here (WoV) in other threads.
IMO, Not much good actually comes out of the www.crapsforum.com unless you are an upcoming DI believer

Read on, especially posts by goatcabin.

Your Bankroll is very important to how much fun you will have playing Craps.
If you are always buying in for $100-$200 and making bets between $25 to $50 each roll, enjoy your short stay at the tables.

Others will chip in
Good Luck!

Thanks for the clarification. As I said, I've found that 100-unit bankroll ($10 bets off the $1000 given in the simulator) gives me a lot of room to breathe and take full 6X odds, but I've been experimenting with trying to get it down to 40-units ($25) or less, mostly out of laziness in having to click so many chips each time before rolling. This only seems fruitful if I ignore the odds bets; otherwise, as you noted, my game tends to run rather short before ruin. :(

My experience has been that 40-units no odds works because, essentially, I am making a $25 bet versus a $70 bet ($10 + 6X Odds). Thus, my game is about three times as long, with the House Edge only being marginally higher (due to less payout).

This brings me to another question: If bankroll is an issue, is it better to take the odds and wager 7 units a roll (bet plus 6X Odds), or to skip the odds and place a larger flat bet that is less than those 7 units? I'm not really a statistician, but could someone tell me at what point those two would be equal? As in, how high would the no odds bet have to be in order to match the payout of the full odds bet. Is this even possible?

Also, I'm not looking for DI. I feel that the odds of it having any effect when I need it would not really be worth the years of practice and that my skill points would be better spent elsewhere. :/

Quote: Vulgrim

If I am understanding this correctly, the expected payout of a Dark Side player is $3.33 per bet, regardless of whether you take odds or not, and that the Wizard only recommends taking odds because you effectively see more action for the same price.

...sort of. The expected loss of a Dark Side player is 27/1925 your bet per round (not counting twelves), regardless of whether you take odds or not, and he recommends it because you see more action for the same price.

Honestly, you're going to get a lot of flak for the doey-don't, but think of it as a cheaper lay bet. It's probably good for your bankroll due to the fact that you'll win significantly more rounds than you'll lose. One thing you might want to consider instead is laying the 4 and/or 10, but only if commission is paid on a win only.

"Return on investment" sets up a bit of a red flag, though, because you should realize that the return on your investment is negative.

Quote: 7craps

Read on, especially posts by goatcabin.

Haven't seen goatcabin on any forum in quite awhile.

Quote: Vulgrim

- Darksider betting.
- Odds vs. no Odds.
- Neutralizing the Come Out.
- Accounting for small bankroll.
- Minimizing House Edge.
- Maximizing return on investment.

Dark Side betting is but a smidgen different than Right Side betting. Slightly better chance of winning, slightly higher bankroll requirement to do it correctly.

Odds versus No Odds-- That's simple. Always have an odds bet down if you are going to win and never have an odds bet down if you are going to lose. What? You don't know in advance? Well, that is the whole point. They offer and odds bet at zero house edge. Not an offer a casino usually makes. Its to induce you to effectively increase your wager. Your choice. Plain and simple.

Neutralizing the come out-- Ain't no way to "neutralize" the roll of the dice, you mean to dilute its effect by committing the unpardonable sin of hedging your bets.

Minimizing House Edge. The house edge is what it is. It ain't gonna be getting maximized or minimized. It simply is.

Maximizing return on Investment-- That's an easy one. Thirty five dollars to the cocktail waitress and twenty minutes in the shadowy recesses of the beverage alcove where the surveillance cameras won't film her activities with you.

Hi Vulgrim,
Since it sounds like you have never played craps in a casino, let me set some expectations for you. Since you have been playing the simulators, I would hope you are already aware that your expected loss, is not going to be close to your actual loss. Depending on your bet levels, your expected loss for a couple of hours play could be in the $20-$40 range. In reality, you could lose $200 in the first 30 minutes.
The important thing is to realize you will probably lose, and possibly lose more than the math expects you to lose.

Once you have that realization, then you are ready to play. And this site is great at explaining why making the best bets is important. But, in the end, your session result is 100% going to be reliant on the numbers that get thrown during your time of play. I have been on tables where the Right side players were losing our butts, yet the Darkside player standing next to me was getting killed too! (Those come out 7 and 11s were chewing up their DP progressions). I have lost $400 playing perfect PL and Come bets, while the dummy next to me bet the Horn High Aces every throw (~16.7% house edge) and walked away up $400.

Craps is a great game. However, besides the relatively low house edge, the other great aspect about craps is the social interaction in the game. When you are the shooter and make your point, and everyone on the table is cheering you, or fist bumping, or high fiving, that adds to the rush. This is not something that you will get from the simulators. As a darksider, you will not get to experience that same type of camaraderie, unless you happen to get a table of all Dont players.
As a Don't player, you may be treated nicely by the player next to you, or you may draw absolute scorn and snide remarks. I have seen it all, from Don't players readily accepted at a table, to tables that were openly hostile to a Don't player.

Obviously, this makes no difference to the math of your bets, but it could have a real impact on whether or not you enjoy your first craps experience.
I will admit I am biased toward Right side play. I will play the Don't at times when nothing is working for me, but even when I am winning money that way, I don't really enjoy my playing time. I have even been on tables where 100% of us were playing the Dark side, so we were all cheering the 7 outs, but it still wasn't fun.

You can explain to the Right way player next to you why your betting the Dark side is a superior way to play according to the math, but chances are the player will have no clue what you are talking about.

I could go on for another two pages, but I won't. Whether you play Right or Dark is up to you, and either way is a good way to go. Just be aware that the social aspect of craps is going to come into play at the casino (unless you play on one of the bubble games, or the e- Craps games that have betting monitors). In my opinion, the social part of the game is going to have way more bearing on your 'fun factor' than whether you win or lose money.

Best of luck to you at the tables!

Quote: FleaStiff

Neutralizing the come out-- Ain't no way to "neutralize" the roll of the dice, you mean to dilute its effect by committing the unpardonable sin of hedging your bets.

Yes, that is what I meant. Of course you can't completely neutralize it because the 12 loses on Pass but doesn't win on Don't Pass.

Quote:

Minimizing House Edge. The house edge is what it is. It ain't gonna be getting maximized or minimized. It simply is.

Again, correct. I guess I just seem to be mixing up some lingo. What I meant was playing a strategy that would result in the lowest house edge, which you already noted was Laying Odds.

Quote:

Maximizing return on Investment-- That's an easy one. Thirty five dollars to the cocktail waitress and twenty minutes in the shadowy recesses of the beverage alcove where the surveillance cameras won't film her activities with you.

Lol! I shall have to try this strategy too. ;)

Quote: RaleighCraps

Since it sounds like you have never played craps in a casino, let me set some expectations for you. Since you have been playing the simulators, I would hope you are already aware that your expected loss, is not going to be close to your actual loss. Depending on your bet levels, your expected loss for a couple of hours play could be in the $20-$40 range. In reality, you could lose $200 in the first 30 minutes.
The important thing is to realize you will probably lose, and possibly lose more than the math expects you to lose.

Oh, not to worry. I'm well aware of that. I've had sessions where the dice were on fire and I couldn't catch a 7 until after losing about $300. I've had other sessions where I would lose about $150, break even, lose $150, break even, for a while. I've had sessions where $1000 went to ruin. Some where $2000 went to ruin!

But these are all reasons I am trying to practice and develop a strategy that gets the odds as well in my favor as I can for the conditions I face. Hence, the whole reason I'm here. :)

Also, thanks for the advice on the social aspect of craps. Much appreciated.

The thing about why it is worth taking the free odds seems to be hard to explain, even for the Wizard. If I understand you right, you can come up with a sufficient bankroll for laying full odds but are looking for ways to bet so that you don't have to have such a bankroll. If so, it is a perfect illustration for someone who should not take full odds. Take less than full odds, Vulgrim, taking full odds does not help you make more money.

This is hard to grasp, but the only way the whole business of free odds makes sense is if the total amount of money bet is the same. In other words, what sense does it make to lower the HE if you are not also lowering the expected loss for the session? Since you can't lower the expected loss with the free odds on a particular single bet, that means you must have fewer total bets using the odds OR you have simply decided to be someone who bets a lot more money whenever he gambles. A guy who hints he is uncomfortable with the needed bankroll is a guy who is doing the latter and it isn't the right thing for him.

That statement, "the free odds do not help you make more money", is a little irritating in that it needs explanation, and is a sort of slap in the face for all of us who take free odds [me too], does however succinctly state something you might as well attempt to grasp.

DP and 1 DC. 6x the line (3-4-5 odds). I think the poll should have included multiple DC's, as some Darth's like them.

Bovada's craps table seems to not allow full 6X Odds. Is that because it is not 3-4-5X Odds, or is it due to table limits?

Isn't it 2X odds? isn't it posted?

My craps strategy:

Put money on table.

Celebrate when I don't lose it.

Rinse/repeat.

Once you've established you don't pass bet then you establish a don't come bet and lay odds on the don't pass bet ..... Once you establish the first don't come number take down your odds .....

The reason is simple ..... Your $10 don't pass bet has more value once the number is established ..... In other words ..... The House will not let you just establish say a ten without going thru the don't come or don't pass ..... Once you establish the number 4 or 10 you have a 2 to 1 chance of winning on your bet ..... In fact the house will let you take down your bet as they know you now have an advantage ...... Or to put it another way, you now have $10 on a don't four and you will get or win $10 on that bet which is even money win for you ..... But once you lay odds on the four or ten you are decreasing the value of your initial don't pass or don't come bet as you have to lay $20 to get the same $10 back you have on the number .....

So in review you establish a don't four for ten bucks and if a seven comes you win ten bucks .... If you lay odds you will give the Dealer $20 to win another $10 so in essence you have bet $30 to win $20 or if you don't lay odds you you bet $10 to win $10 ......

Reason to lay odds on first come out roll after number is established is to protect your don't pass bet in the event a seven is rolled .... No seven then take the next number and take down your lay of odds ...

Quote: MsNiceGirl

Once you establish the first don't come number take down your odds .....

we've heard this before. Oddly, it takes a lot of thought to explain what is wrong with the reasoning.

Your $10 no four, once established, is worth 2 to 1 ..... Why devalue your don't four bet by giving the house an even money bet .... The new even money bet offsets your advantage your no four bet so why would you do that?

Spain Ricky, why?

Seems you would be better off making another don't bet instead of the odds money in hopes of gaining another advantage ..... Once I have three don't numbers established, wait for the seven .... Or watch your numbers get picked off, one by one but with each number, even if it gets picked had an advantage of at least 6 to 5 of winning with every don't number established .....

Reason to lay odds, after the point is established, is to protect your next don't come bet, after you establish the first don't come number, take down the lay ......

Or you can vary by laying odds on the first don't come and then remove after you establish second don't come ..... But leaving a 50-50 bet on the table when you already have the advantage, does not increase your mathematical advantage you have obtained over the House by avoiding the 7/11 and 12 on the come out roll ....

If the Player could place a don't bet on the number, after it is established, a don't better would never ever never loose, over any sustained period and would always make money, always ......

But if the House allowed you to lay the odds after the point was established, with no don't line/come bet, you would break even, totally break even and never make any money, nor would the House ....

So please explain how laying odds increases your mathematical advantage, please explain ...... And if it takes more words than I have written here, bring it on, I wanna understand as the math side of my brain just does not understand, so please explain ....

And after your done explaining your reasoning on the above, please answer this question:

Why will the House allow you to take down a don't come or don't pass bet, after the number is established but they will not let you take down a do pass or do come bet after it is established, why is that?

Thank You!

Quote: MsNiceGirl

Your $10 no four, once established, is worth 2 to 1 ..... Why devalue your don't four bet by giving the house an even money bet .... The new even money bet offsets your advantage your no four bet so why would you do that?

There's nothing you do with your odds bet that will change the EV of the Don't bet. Place it, don't place it, take it down, leave it up, doesn't matter to that bet. Thus this 'devalue' thought is a canard.

Quote: MsNiceGirl

Why will the House allow you to take down a don't come or don't pass bet, after the number is established but they will not let you take down a do pass or do come bet after it is established, why is that?

The house knows you have the advantage for the Don't at this point. Of course you can change it, and not the other, for the opposite reason. No connection to the odds bet at all here.

But it does connect the odds back to your don't bet ..... Again you bet $10 don't and get the four .... You are ahead of the game, your ten bucks wins ten bucks - a second ten bet only wins back five bucks, yea you had the option of playing even money game with the house but $20 on a no no four with $10 line and $10 odds only wins $15 but a no no four and then establish a no no ten and then the seven gets you twenty bucks .......

laying odds helps bring the value of your original bet down, just as it helps brings up the value of a do pass four up ..... It helps even out the value of the original bet .....

You will make more bucks establishing three no no bets without laying odds, except on the second or third roll and then pick up the lay and wait for the seven .....

Nice thing is if shooter gets hot you avoid some large lay bets that only get smaller wins and if the shooter hits the three numbers, wait for next shooter and your bankroll is not hit too hard ....

While laying odds is not wrong, I just feel not laying, exct as noted, is smarter play with less risk and better chance of winning as you have to get beat multiple times before the bankroll size becomes a concern ......



PS .... Thought in your first post, you stated it would take too many words to explain .... Guess I'm still waiting for the full explanation .....

Either way, we both understand the game but agree that we think - play different .....

Have a profitable time at the tables!

Seems odd only you and I are talking about this. That is an unusual experience for me when talking to a 'nice girl' ... the other guys are always 'butting in' usually [g]

Quote:

your ten bucks wins ten bucks - a second ten bet only wins back five bucks

I guess this peculiarity is why the fallacy [it is such IMO] takes hold so hard. I believe you will hear other players says such things, dealers maybe even more. Is that where you heard it?

Oh, and you other guys butt out!

I can't butt In gambit. I know little about craps, and nothing about nice girls :}

Quote: FleaStiff

Dark Side betting is but a smidgen different than Right Side betting. Slightly better chance of winning, slightly higher bankroll requirement to do it correctly.

This basically is the message that I was trying to get across in my post with the ill-fated attempt at humor. Wrong Side and Right Side Bettors stand just about equal. Oh one side at times stands disgraced in the sight of casino employees, general casino patrons and young teenage girls but who cares if everyone in a casino reviles you as long as Lady Variance is just as likely to smile upon you on the Wrong Side as she is to smile upon you on the Right Side. Those young teenage girls can go off and give their hearts to Right Side Bettors. What do you care, as long as you've won enough money to cruise Route 66 in a Corvette.

Quote: FleaStiff

Odds versus No Odds-- That's simple. Always have an odds bet down if you are going to win and never have an odds bet down if you are going to lose. What? You don't know in advance? Well, that is the whole point. They offer and odds bet at zero house edge. Not an offer a casino usually makes. Its to induce you to effectively increase your wager. Your choice. Plain and simple.

Here again, I tried humor. All joking aside. Casinos used not to offer odds bets at all, then all they did was offer a measly 2x. Its a matter of competition between the casinos for the hearts and minds of the craps players. Well, their wallets at least!

Quote: FleaSiff

Neutralizing the come out-- Ain't no way to "neutralize" the roll of the dice, you mean to dilute its effect by committing the unpardonable sin of hedging your bets.

Look folks, ain't no way to sugar coat it for you. When that Seven rolls, you lose. Trying to "buy insurance" so that you lose less is a bad idea.

Quote: FleaStiff

Minimizing House Edge. The house edge is what it is. It ain't gonna be getting maximized or minimized. It simply is.

Yep and no matter how the dice roll, that is how they roll. No use trying to debate it. You either won or you lost. Come out roll or any other roll.

Quote: FleaStiff

Maximizing return on Investment-- That's an easy one. Thirty five dollars to the cocktail waitress and twenty minutes in the shadowy recesses of the beverage alcove where the surveillance cameras won't film her activities with you.

Well, at least this one did get recognized as an attempt at humor. Though please... not in the casino ... you know their gambling license is too important to them.