Big Buy Bet strategy
October 26th, 2012 at 10:31:24 PM
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I enjoy playing long sessions of craps, but I realize this is not best for my bankroll. The longer I play, the more I expose to the inevitable house edge, and the more likely I am to lose money on that session.
So I started thinking about what is my best chance to end up winning at craps, and I decided that making a single bet is my best chance of a winning session. However, that is not compatible with my desire for long sessions.
What I have decided to do is make at least one Buy 4 or 10 bet for $500.
If it hits, press it to $1000. This means I get back my $500, and I am only out the $25 vig at this point.
If it hits again, press it to $2000. I bank $1000, minus the $50 vig, minus the $25 previous vig, means I am up $925.
If it hits a 3rd time, press to $4000. I bank $2000, minus the $100 vig, plus the $925 I had won before, makes me $2,825 to the positive.
Any further hits, pocket the full $8,000, minus the $200 vig.
I have decided to make at least one bet, if I have the money to do so. As long as I get paid at least once, I will make the bet again at some point.
I will do this until I lose $500 on a bet that never gets paid.
This is going to force me to pay much closer attention as to how well my Buy 4/10 bets at $25 are doing.
How often am I getting paid at least one time?
How often do I lose the bet without getting paid at all?
How often do I get paid more than once?
The last time I played craps, I did end up making a $500 and $1000 bet on the Buy 10. But it was on a big roll, and the original Buy 10 bet had started out at $25. I did get paid on each bet, but I lost the $1000 shortly after getting only one $2000 pay. So, I ended up being positive on that bet, even with the $1000 loss.
So I started thinking about what is my best chance to end up winning at craps, and I decided that making a single bet is my best chance of a winning session. However, that is not compatible with my desire for long sessions.
What I have decided to do is make at least one Buy 4 or 10 bet for $500.
If it hits, press it to $1000. This means I get back my $500, and I am only out the $25 vig at this point.
If it hits again, press it to $2000. I bank $1000, minus the $50 vig, minus the $25 previous vig, means I am up $925.
If it hits a 3rd time, press to $4000. I bank $2000, minus the $100 vig, plus the $925 I had won before, makes me $2,825 to the positive.
Any further hits, pocket the full $8,000, minus the $200 vig.
I have decided to make at least one bet, if I have the money to do so. As long as I get paid at least once, I will make the bet again at some point.
I will do this until I lose $500 on a bet that never gets paid.
This is going to force me to pay much closer attention as to how well my Buy 4/10 bets at $25 are doing.
How often am I getting paid at least one time?
How often do I lose the bet without getting paid at all?
How often do I get paid more than once?
The last time I played craps, I did end up making a $500 and $1000 bet on the Buy 10. But it was on a big roll, and the original Buy 10 bet had started out at $25. I did get paid on each bet, but I lost the $1000 shortly after getting only one $2000 pay. So, I ended up being positive on that bet, even with the $1000 loss.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back !
Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
October 27th, 2012 at 1:02:31 AM
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The probability of winning any individual bet is 1/3.
Your chances of winning at least once before losing = your chances of winning the first bet = your chances of winning any individual bet = 1/3
The probability of winning at least n times before losing is 1 / 3^n.
Your chances of winning at least once before losing = your chances of winning the first bet = your chances of winning any individual bet = 1/3
The probability of winning at least n times before losing is 1 / 3^n.
