Threw 9 hardways in ten rolls

Quote: Ahigh

But thanks. And thanks for grouping me in with the charlatans. Very open minded of you.

Then Ahigh, please just tell me what YOU think you can do! Not what was done! What you think you can do in the future! I am sorry if I missed it but I just can't tell what you are saying YOU can do!!!!

I'm not sure what I can do in the future. But as far as bets I prefer sticking to the low edge bets and not risking that much money right now.

Here's all the rolls I have recorded (none omitted) since August 1st 2012:

Total rolls: 1429
1) 472 16.52% - 16.67 = (-0.15)-------------------------------------------------- 1
2) 496 17.35% - 16.67 = (+0.69)----------------------------------------------------- 2
3) 486 17.00% - 16.67 = (+0.34)---------------------------------------------------- 3
4) 474 16.59% - 16.67 = (-0.08)-------------------------------------------------- 4
5) 479 16.76% - 16.67 = (+0.09)--------------------------------------------------- 5
6) 451 15.78% - 16.67 = (-0.89)------------------------------------------------ 6

2) 39 2.73% - 2.78% = -0.05% (-0.69)--------- 2
3) 95 6.65% - 5.56% = 1.09% (+15.61)-------------------- 3
4) 122 8.54% - 8.33% = 0.20% (+2.92)-------------------------- 4
5) 169 11.83% - 11.11% = 0.72% (+10.22)------------------------------------ 5
6) 197 13.79% - 13.89% = -0.10% (-1.47)------------------------------------------ 6
7) 232 16.24% - 16.67% = -0.43% (-6.17)------------------------------------------------- 7
8) 176 12.32% - 13.89% = -1.57% (-22.47)------------------------------------- 8
9) 161 11.27% - 11.11% = 0.16% (+2.22)---------------------------------- 9
10) 112 7.84% - 8.33% = -0.50% (-7.08)------------------------10
11) 72 5.04% - 5.56% = -0.52% (-7.39)----------------11
12) 54 3.78% - 2.78% = 1.00% (+14.31)------------12

Total sevens 232 - Seven outs 159 (68.53%) - Seven winners 73 (31.47%)
Pairs 267 18.68% - 16.67% = 2.02% (+28.83 rolls)
Hards 174 12.18% - 11.11% = 1.07% (+15.22 rolls)
HiLos 93 6.51% - 5.56% = 0.95% (+13.61 rolls)
H2 39/13 ( 2.73% - 2.78% = -0.69)
H4 48/17 ( 3.36% - 2.78% = +8.31)
H6 40/18 ( 2.80% - 2.78% = +0.31)
H8 42/10 ( 2.94% - 2.78% = +2.31)
H10 44/9 ( 3.08% - 2.78% = +4.31)
H12 54/12 ( 3.78% - 2.78% = +14.31)

So it looks like in 1429 rolls, I might possibly have a bias towards pairs, and it's somewhere around 1 to 2 % with more concentration on the boxcars than any other pair.

Here is all of the roll data for anyone else who is interested:

ahigh~/gs/rdata% cat *Sep22*
# NOTE: this contains data loaded from files
# rdata/ahigh_august300.txt
# rdata/aaron_sr1_2012-Sep1-2:7pm.txt
# rdata/aaron_sr1_2012-Sep8-1:23pm.txt
# rdata/aaron_sr1_2012-Sep8-9:46pm.txt
# rdata/aaron_sr1_2012-Sep9-3:7pm.txt
# rdata/aaron_sr1_2012-Sep9-8:3pm.txt
# rdata/aaron_sr1_2012-Sep18-10:27pm.txt
# Rolls
a 64`42`62`21`22`62`54`42`42`32`62`42`51`51`44`62`65`43`65`33`66`51`33`64`62`55`54`43`32`55
a 51`55`22`62`21`64`41`61`11`62`44`51`63`21`64`52`33`52`51`32`51`66`32`64`43`54`51`21`64`51
a 51`53`32`44`63`51`41`63`53`66`65`42`41`44`42`42`52`21`31`62`21`44`32`66`32`31`52`52`44`44
a 33`65`53`22`43`22`51`65`54`53`31`51`53`31`51`43`65`31`62`54`53`52`54`53`51`21`42`64`63`55
a 65`53`22`55`41`33`54`63`51`64`32`61`21`42`43`51`63`21`53`63`54`63`53`55`53`41`41`63`54`66
a 63`63`64`41`33`43`64`63`51`52`41`52`42`64`44`32`21`66`11`32`11`22`63`53`43`31`21`66`53`53
a 54`53`65`54`66`65`31`31`52`11`65`22`66`55`43`31`53`44`54`42`64`51`55`21`63`42`11`31`21`42
a 53`41`42`43`42`61`21`64`66`65`52`61`32`62`61`63`63`64`41`65`51`32`53`54`53`62`51`62`44`43
a 11`55`32`31`51`51`43`65`62`21`41`41`63`11`55`32`62`63`32`64`62`61`42`21`54`21`21`64`53`64
a 22`44`11`42`52`43`63`51`42`11`11`52`41`41`42`21`64`63`52`53`62`32`42`42`53`61`22`66`61`54
a 22`43`52`54`43`54`52`61`21`51`42`43`62`41`21`41`54`21`44`22`31`32`66`31`64`55`55`65`62`33
a 33`54`51`54`31`66`41`32`42`42`21`21`22`21`42`11`32`31`11`51`42`65`21`42`54`41`52`43`31`21
a 55`61`65`51`42`52`32`42`43`33`63`43`21`63`42`61`32`61`44`43`63`32`21`64`44`32`64`66`42`52
a 41`66`31`65`64`33`52`52`42`33`21`22`33`44`21`51`32`41`43`33`31`54`43`55`61`63`51`54`53`43
a 65`66`41`62`43`32`53`21`52`11`54`41`31`41`63`41`51`32`64`51`66`51`63`21`21`21`44`31`43`31
a 64`43`62`53`51`61`41`54`31`55`53`31`63`65`63`32`41`64`31`54`54`53`31`22`43`21`54`64`42`61
a 44`32`61`22`32`33`62`65`52`32`41`66`43`66`42`21`52`54`31`55`65`53`43`63`66`61`65`44`65`54
a 55`22`53`22`63`65`41`51`22`21`61`52`32`62`32`61`66`33`31`66`66`51`52`33`65`51`31`52`63`54
a 65`32`52`65`43`52`42`32`65`54`55`42`32`22`22`41`54`21`31`41`66`21`22`65`61`52`61`21`11`32
a 53`31`22`41`53`55`31`21`53`63`11`41`65`65`54`22`21`53`42`32`42`54`33`31`52`52`53`32`52`63
a 42`53`43`62`11`43`65`65`43`53`32`52`43`31`21`55`61`65`51`42`52`32`42`43`33`63`43`21`63`42
a 61`32`61`44`43`63`32`21`64`44`32`64`66`42`52`41`66`31`65`64`33`52`52`42`33`21`22`33`44`21
a 51`32`41`43`33`31`54`43`55`61`63`51`54`53`43`65`66`41`62`43`32`53`21`52`11`54`41`31`41`63
a 41`51`32`64`51`66`51`63`21`21`21`44`31`43`31`64`43`62`53`51`61`41`54`31`55`53`31`63`65`63
a 32`41`64`31`54`54`53`31`22`43`21`54`64`42`61`44`32`61`22`32`33`62`65`52`32`41`66`43`66`42
a 21`52`54`31`55`65`53`43`63`66`61`65`44`65`54`55`22`53`22`63`65`41`51`22`21`61`52`32`62`32
a 61`66`33`31`66`66`51`52`33`65`51`31`52`63`54`65`32`52`65`43`52`42`32`65`54`55`42`32`22`22
a 41`54`21`31`41`66`21`22`65`61`52`61`21`11`32`53`31`22`41`53`55`31`21`53`63`11`41`65`65`54
a 22`21`53`42`32`42`54`33`31`52`52`53`32`52`63`42`53`43`62`11`43`65`65`43`53`32`52`63`44`44
a 43`41`64`32`11`61`21`52`41`66`44`61`22`21`66`54`64`33`41`63`41`65`42`66`63`64`64`41`11`64
a 63`55`21`22`65`32`54`43`31`42`21`63`54`32`11`51`53`63`55`61`31`51`52`33`51`65`64`31`64`63
a 51`61`41`32`11`44`51`61`44`61`21`66`61`53`31`21`64`44`51`54`63`41`64`52`65`54`43`64`21`43
a 61`52`62`63`32`31`54`42`52`51`22`66`51`64`61`55`52`62`42`51`52`51`63`61`41`43`43`41`63`32
a 54`21`32`64`52`43`32`66`66`42`63`51`61`51`54`21`52`42`53`43`64`54`42`31`21`55`32`41`53`42
a 44`63`65`64`62`52`63`53`32`64`44`65`21`44`31`43`62`41`62`31`32`52`55`44`42`51`44`42`41`11
a 43`52`31`31`63`21`64`52`63`43`63`61`33`54`21`54`61`51`44`54`51`61`41`42`53`41`61`54`41`62
a 32`53`62`22`51`55`22`41`42`62`54`54`42`43`52`61`11`64`21`54`63`32`31`61`22`31`33`66`63`42
a 66`63`53`51`53`42`53`54`22`52`61`64`42`61`41`65`32`61`31`53`41`61`54`66`64`11`21`64`31`11
a 53`52`62`42`62`42`61`32`65`54`66`42`33`54`52`53`42`63`43`32`63`66`42`33`66`53`44`11`54`22
a 43`64`61`52`11`55`62`64`21`51`54`43`32`43`53`32`55`32`11`61`33`62`64`65`41`11`51`43`62`32
a 64`44`62`64`21`61`42`64`22`63`54`65`33`41`43`53`31`51`32`33`53`51`11`63`11`43`51`21`42`41
a 32`65`61`61`21`63`36`35`14`42`51`36`63`44`34`21`51`24`61`43`41`21`32`33`34`13`54`33`53`62
a 55`64`15`52`31`31`36`21`62`26`15`31`51`35`25`52`61`41`62`61`53`33`54`53`36`66`54`21`44`32
a 45`52`43`54`64`64`12`11`55`16`65`26`64`64`21`64`16`63`53`61`13`53`42`23`52`62`43`43`32`66
a 65`66`21`23`65`43`55`61`21`53`64`65`45`43`32`64`32`56`41`56`64`31`41`66`22`36`66`65`35`21
a 16`43`53`51`33`61`54`43`52`31`55`23`65`41`56`53`55`66`41`52`53`41`21`11`52`42`21`43`42`52
a 32`61`11`11`31`62`51`62`44`22`55`55`22`31`33`44`55`55`21`54`41`62`21`65`63`21`23`55`22`41
a 52`52`21`21`43`42`41`62`11`61`54`22`62`42`53`53`54`31`52

The irony of this data is that on another quest, I spent a bunch of time trying to prove to Harley Horn that increasing the edge on the do's and the don'ts due to biased dice could only happen if they loaded the dice for 12's and that their readings showing that dice were biased was just the result of a stupid caliper that is used in a way that is misleading.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqBNF2BnWSo&feature=g-upl

Maybe the dice are weighted on the ace face. When I was coming up with all those 12's I am not sure what dice I was using, but I wish I knew now.

I don't know what bias you might think I might have from that data, but a statistician would be more qualified to make that assertion than me.

My general thought is that it is conceivable that the bias I've been getting over the last couple of months could be due to the consistency of my throw.

I am really okay with just resigning over this whole thing though.

I am just pissing away my valuable time on this and trying to convince people who may choose never to believe that influence is possible.

I never convinced Harley that the dice weren't loaded by the casino to make more money on the do's and don'ts, and my data suggests that maybe he was right.

Quote: Ahigh

I don't know what bias you might think I might have from that data, but a statistician would be more qualified to make that assertion than me.

My general thought is that it is conceivable that the bias I've been getting over the last couple of months could be due to the consistency of my throw.

1429 rolls
EV pairs 238.2
SD 14.1
Actual 267

About 2 standard deviations more than the mean

Make and place your bets

Did you use new casino dice for every 8 hours of tosses like in a casino?

A high,
Why is validation in the form of belief from forum members important to you?
If you really believe this to be an advantage you possess,
Why not seek validation in the form of chips at the casino?
Not really sure what your goal is here,
Nor why you seem so upset by mild skepticism and questions.
Best of luck to you...

Here's some charts for this data on two basic strategies. Passline with 10x odds, and buy the 4 and 10.

The press schedules for the buy the 4 and 10 are as follows:

@buy_press_schedule7 = ( 5, 15, 40, 120, 360, 1080, 3240 );
@buy_press_schedule6 = ( 5, 15, 25, 75, 225, 675, 2025 );
@buy_press_schedule5 = ( 5, 15, 30, 80, 260, 750, 2000 );
@buy_press_schedule4 = ( 5, 10, 25, 60, 160, 460, 1350 );
@buy_press_schedule3 = ( 5, 10, 20, 55, 160, 420, 1200 );
@buy_press_schedule2 = ( 5, 10, 25, 50, 75, 100, 150, 250, 500 );
@buy_press_schedule1 = ( 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 40, 80, 100, 150, 250, 300, 350, 400, 450, 500 );

In the parameters, s25 means start with a green chip. l500 means don't press beyond $500 (as if it were a table max or personal max bet).

Quote: WongBo

A high,
Why is validation in the form of belief from forum members important to you?
If you really believe this to be an advantage you possess,
Why not seek validation in the form of chips at the casino?
Not really sure what your goal is here,
Nor why you seem so upset by mild skepticism and questions.
Best of luck to you...

This started years ago when people ridiculed me for even contemplating the possibility of dice control.

I don't even have a firm belief in it, I am just enjoying the quest.

Some people enjoy the rush of not knowing .. the gambling. That is something that I enjoy too.

But the quest towards discovery and validation of something that is still considered to be an unsolved mystery and source of much debate is what appeals to me about this.

And yeah, the people who believe in DI, some of them, have taken the position that I am retarded for wanting to prove it. In other words they believe it's possible and that if I prove it's possible, they won't be able to take advantage of it anymore because the casinos will close off the loophole.

Whatever. But hopefully that explains my position.

Trying to make a living off of playing craps is an interesting theory. And certainly, even with luck, it is something that is achievable!

But so far nobody (that I know personally and has told me and proved to me the necessary details) that makes a living off of playing craps is making a better living that I am off of programming computers and being a research engineer with emphasis on gambling.

Quote: Ahigh

I am really okay with just resigning over this whole thing though.

No you are not.
You want to be the world's greatest craps shooter.

You know you have the proof because you have proved it to yourself.

Now the world is yours.
Take it and fear nothing.

The Craps Event of the Century

Not to derail the thread, and not taking the side of Aaron or his would-be antagonists, does anyone else find it interesting that craps engenders more discussion and more mathematical simulations than any other game on this board, including blackjack and video poker, which it is proven can be beaten? I think it just proves that craps is the most fascinating and hermetic game in the casino...

Quote: Ahigh

And yeah, the people who believe in DI, some of them, have taken the position that I am retarded for wanting to prove it. In other words they believe it's possible and that if I prove it's possible, they won't be able to take advantage of it anymore because the casinos will close off the loophole.

if it was possible to extent that casinos would lose money from DIs, it would have already happened.
All DIs have nothing to fear but themselves.

Casinos do not like the fact that most DIs take an awful lot of time to pull up their pants, slowly set each die, slowly place them together, slowly........
and then not even hit the back wall with one of them.
That is what many boxmen have told me about why they do not like DIs.
They as a group slow the game down more than any other group of craps players, even the drunk ones.

Something similar to this happened to me about a decade ago when I was doing motorcycle stunts. I beat a guy named Darius (pro stunt rider) in a for-cash competition for the longest endo. Darius shook my hand and said "you're pro now, you won cash."

A lot of people back then didn't understand why I didn't want to show up to their thing and do stuff here and there. I enjoyed the quest of being able to do that stuff, but the best stunt riders I knew were still not making the kind of money I was making. And I was interested in doing it for fun, not to be a professional stunt rider.

But I did have respect among those guys for learning how to do those stunts better than anybody, and I provided charts and graphs to show it all works and a lot of people doing those stunts now learned directly or indirectly from the stuff that I published on how to do the stunts. It required a lot of practice of years of time and I figured it all out on my own with nobody teaching me how to do it.

I even made a Wikipedia page on that including charts showing what you do and when, and several people reported back to me that they learned how to do the trick by looking at my chart.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoppie

The yellow motorcycle on that Wiki page is me and was taken in or around 2001. I won the long distance endo competition in 2002.

But why would I not want to become a professional stunt rider? I do better programming video games and stuff as far as the money goes.

I just do this stuff for fun.

Quote: teddys

Not to derail the thread, and not taking the side of Aaron or his would-be antagonists, does anyone else find it interesting that craps engenders more discussion and more mathematical simulations than any other game on this board, including blackjack and video poker, which it is proven can be beaten? I think it just proves that craps is the most fascinating and hermetic game in the casino...

It's not a derailment of the thread at all. Being the best at something is my goal. Even if I only make the best Monte Carlo simulator, or have the best home craps setup, or know the most details of edges, or whatever. I want to be the best.

That's just how I do things, and that's part of my personality and identity.

I am also very competitive on playing arcade games (Robotron, Asteroids, Ms Pac-Man, Donkey Kong, etc).

I even played two-player against Steve Weibe while they filmed the King of Kong. They interviewed me and I signed stuff, but none of my footage made it into the film.

When I played two player with Steve, he beat me every game, but I made over 280,000 in one of the games against him. He was making 600k+ on each game though.

This may or may not help you understand how much of the motivation is just to be the best and that is part of what motivates me. Way more than the money for sure is the goal to be the best.

Quote: teddys

Not to derail the thread, and not taking the side of Aaron or his would-be antagonists,

AHigh may have found the Holy Grail of DI, a cutter delivery - and wants so bad to prove it to the world that HE is the greatest,
but he runs and hides when others laugh at him and call him names.

He has deeper issues than all this.

I vote for the Craps Event of the Century

I really figured at least one would pull the trigger, gambling wise, not about losing weight.
Gambling challenges everywhere and no takers.

They just huff and puff and run and hide.

AlanM will film the damn event for free.
He did say for free right?

Lets do it

deleted

It just smells like an ambush or a setup. If everything is totally on the up-and-up and everybody understands the data that I am providing does not paint me out to be a superman able to deliver 3x the normal number of pairs for every pair in both short and long bursts, etc, I am willing to talk about what I think (not know) I can do.

But if the point is to ridicule me and group me in a class of people that believe lots of untrue stuff because they are gullible and propose unfair bets to me to turn me into a sucker and laugh at me, don't blame me for saying.

NO THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

There are already plenty of good bets for me at the craps tables, and I do take those bets, and I do win more consistently than most players. I have the background to say that.

The dealers will tell you that I am a pain in the ass making big come bets and laying behind the come bet to reduce exposure and try to control volatility without going to high edge bets.

That's one reason I generally like to play on empty tables. When other players are around on a full table, I will gamble just like everyone instead of trying to work an edge.

And when I work an edge, I am betting small and putting in time to accomplish a grind.

Someday the grind may become larger and I may have to go to casinos with bigger limits on bets. But right now, it's just for fun, and I'm not getting rich playing craps.

Quote: sodawater

This whole thread and everything you've posted it in is incredibly tedious, not fun. Your meticulous recording and filming every roll you make sounds awfully tedious as well. But hey, it's your free time, not mine.

But have you ever considered that this might not be the ideal forum to brag about your unprovable claims of magical dice influence? This forum is by and large made up of skeptics -- and rightly so as it was founded by a statistician.

There are dozens of other forums where people are eager to hear your magical tales. Why are you posting them here unless it's a masochistic thrill?

Have you ever considered that you might enjoy making people feel bad and hide behind the ruse of an intellectual as means to take enjoyment in feeling intellectually superior when in fact often you are not?

deleted

Quote: sodawater

Quote: teddys

Not to derail the thread, and not taking the side of Aaron or his would-be antagonists, does anyone else find it interesting that craps engenders more discussion and more mathematical simulations than any other game on this board, including blackjack and video poker, which it is proven can be beaten? I think it just proves that craps is the most fascinating and hermetic game in the casino...

I think you are right -- and I would say it's even ironic. The casino is FULL of opportunities to gain an advantage over the house. Off the top of my head: Poker, sports betting, video poker, blackjack, pai how poker/tiles by booking more action as banker than you bet against the house, weak 3cp dealers, progressive slots and table meters.

Just about the only two games that CAN'T be legally beaten are craps and roulette -- and yet these are the two games that half-smart system peddlers/believers focus on the most.

I suspect the reason for this is that real AP is a lot of hard work. It takes hundreds of hours of practice to be a competent card counter in casino conditions. It takes effort to scout out 3cp dealers. Not every progressive slot or table meter is high enough. And good luck getting suspicious Asian gamblers to bet against you in Pai Gow tiles or poker.

Not to mention that most of the above AP opportunities require a large bankroll.

Craps and roulette are the easiest of the games to play. There's not much effort involved in employing a betting progression or betting mix. And Ahigh's "dice control" certainly doesn't look taxing either.

So that's my theory. Real AP is hard work, and craps and roulette are easy.

Easy to play and hard and elusive to master. That's how I would label it. Just like games like Tetris.

There are lots of nooks and crannies in craps. Lots of trivia. But to get a good chance to win, you don't have to know much at all.

Quote: guido111

No you are not.
You want to be the world's greatest craps shooter.

You know you have the proof because you have proved it to yourself.

Now the world is yours.
Take it and fear nothing.

The Craps Event of the Century

LOL. It seems like there's a considerable chance you are just making fun of me. But thanks for humoring my thought process.

Quote: Ahigh

It just smells like an ambush or a setup.

No. My trash goes out tomorrow night if that is what you are smelling.

There is no bigger stage for you.

An experienced TV guy in AlanM (you may have already blown your chance unless he is in Vegas now)
says he will film it all.

You have people that want to bet you.
You can set the rules and the odds.

Go for the 2 standard deviations. You did it once.

Fear nothing.

Do you want someone to give you a bankroll?
What else do you fear?

I want to win big from this event.
That way I can tell my grand kids about it and show them the video of the world's greatest craps shooter, before he became famous,
like seeing the Beatles in 1963 in Germany Live,
and all the money I made from his famous Craps Event

Do it

Quote: Ahigh

It seems like there's a considerable chance you are just making fun of me. But thanks for humoring my thought process.

I do not know what past events in you life made fun of you to have such a great fear of being made fun of.
Maybe older brothers and sisters that always picked on you? I do not know.

This is your stage.
Are you now just going to run and hide?

No can do
PM AlanM and tell him you want to do this asap.

Set your bets and the dates

The holidays are getting closer.

Quote: guido111

No. My trash goes out tomorrow night if that is what you are smelling.

There is no bigger stage for you.

An experienced TV guy in AlanM (you may have already blown your chance unless he is in Vegas now)
says he will film it all.

You have people that want to bet you.
You can set the rules and the odds.

Go for the 2 standard deviations. You did it once.

Fear nothing.

Do you want someone to give you a bankroll?
What else do you fear?

I want to win big from this event.
That way I can tell my grand kids about it and show them the video of the world's greatest craps shooter, before he became famous,
like seeing the Beatles in 1963 in Germany Live,
and all the money I made from his famous Craps Event

Do it

If I get enough support I could follow through with it.

I just don't want to end up being the ass of the century.

You guys have all my data. If you're looking at that and saying "Hmph, if I had those results, I would do something." Let me know.

Surely you can appreciate that I do fear failure. I want to do it if I can leverage the experience that I have to demonstrate something that is generally not believed to be possible.

But that many events required to demonstrate an edge .. I'm still trying to figure out how best to exploit it at the casino.

And I don't want to take a sucker bet. There's a chance all the things I'm heavy on this 1400+ rolls I'm light on the next 1400 and it evens out. And in the process of it evening out I get schooled like a chump.

I don't like that possibility.

But if there are some believers as a result of sharing the data, and there is some curiosity, that is genuine, I could consider it. I just don't want to be set up.

Nobody likes to be taken advantage of, and generally speaking I don't know you guys. And as far as people from LA, I lived on Ocean Avenue and Colorado at Pacific Plaza overlooking the Santa Monica Pier for over a year. I walked to work every day 1/8th of a mile around 3rd Street Promenade between Santa Monica Blvd and Arizona Avenue. Along my walk to work every day and home every day, I got a keen insight to the culture of people in LA. And one of the things that I learned is that if somebody is being nice to you WATCH OUT!!!

So don't think I get all excited with stars in my eyes because some "big shot" from LA is thinking about putting me on TV.

I know plenty about people in LA, and most of what I know makes me want to puke.

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Quote: Ahigh

And when I work an edge, I am betting small and putting in time to accomplish a grind.

I am not trying to ridicule you. I am just saying that you NEVER have an edge playing craps. NEVER. NEVER. I am just offerring you an opportunity to prove me wrong. I have made that offer to every 'claimer' who has come to the WoV site. Of course none have tried. And, as I have said to every 'claimer', I hope you do prove me wrong! I am sure whatever I lose to you in a bet will then be made up for ten fold in bets against the casino....

Now that I followed this thread all the way through and I find it very entertaining, you all failed to ask the one question that should have been asked when this all started. How much do you win every time you hit the casinos? I think the Silverton loves this guy and so does the ATM they have in there, unless he walks in with a pockets full of money everyday, I would love to see his win/loss statement.

He has shown us everything else why not that?

Everyday players get lucky in the casinos, I once saw five 12's in a row, was the shooter a controller? No just someone getting lucky. From time to time we see some pretty strange things happen on the table games.

The one thing we all need to look at is that craps is a game of chance, just like roulette, they are sucker games, that is how the casinos classifies them.

So Aahigh are you a winner or a loser?

Quote: Ahigh

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoppie

OT, but as a fellow stunt junkie, my interest is piqued. How'd you get the values to make that chart? Is there certain equipment, or is that kind of an "artists interpretation"?

My personal best stoppie was a little over 200' from 70mph (didn't ride it out, got a little squirrely and set it down), wheelie was 1.2 miles at 120mph. As I'm somewhat of a physics junkie to boot, many of my "attempts at stupid shit" are looked at scientifically before I do them. What I think and what I feel doesn't match with what I'm seeing in that chart. If those are legit readings from some equipment, I'd love to get ahold of it to set me right in my own pursuits.

Quote: Ahigh

Even if I could roll, let's just say, boxcars 100 times in a row given 10,000 rolls for the total attempt, would you say "that looks random, it's just luck!" Or would you say "I have no idea how, but you are really good at rolling boxcars over and over! That is _not_ just luck, you're good!"

If 100 is enough (and I hope that it is!), where is your personal threshold where you would say "that's luck!" Still sticking with I am throwing the dice 10,000 times, and we're only counting back-to-back aces.

You really need to learn how to do the math a correct way and then verify your results with simulations.

Once you know what is expected and the variance, the rest is cake.
I feel you do not understand and know how to apply variance (standard deviation)
to a series of independent trials.
start here:
http://stattrek.com/probability/set-and-subset.aspx?Tutorial=Stat
it is free but you have to do the work yourself to learn.
or here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation

Quote: Ahigh

If I got boxcars 4 times in a row on 10,000 throws would that demonstrate any skill? (one in 16 million chance to get 4 boxcars in a row).
No? How about 5 times in a row? (1 in 60 million)
No? How about 6 times in a row? (1 in 2 billion)
No? How about 7 times in a row? (1 in 78 billion)
No? How about 8 times in a row? (1 in 2.8 trillion)
No? Then how many, please tell me.

At some point it seems reasonable that a reasonable demonstration of skill is the explanation. But I just want to know what is your personal threshold for that?

Your streak probabilities are not close on the runs per N trials.

see this calculator and the WoV links if you want to learn the proper math.
http://www.pulcinientertainment.com/info/Streak-Calculator-enter.html

The Wizard started it all.
Blame him for the knowledge.


Here is my results from a streak calculator
If I got boxcars 4 times in a row on 10,000 throws would that demonstrate any skill?
At least one time (one in 173.31 chance to get 4 boxcars in a row in 10,000 tosses).
At least 2 times (one in 60,012.28 chance to get 4 boxcars in a row in 10,000 tosses).
The at least 2 times or more requires a different calculator. A link is provided for the one made by BruceZ
Yes, that same famous BruceZ over at 2+2.


How about 5 times in a row? (NOT 1 in 60 million)
At least one time (one in 6,222.35 chance to get 5 boxcars in a row in 10,000 tosses).
At least 2 times (one in 77,516,368.16 chance to get 5 boxcars in a row in 10,000 tosses).

How about 6 times in a row? (NOT 1 in 2 billion)
At least one time (one in 224,009.48 chance to get 6 boxcars in a row in 10,000 tosses).
At least 2 times (one in 100,491,001,769.54 chance to get 6 boxcars in a row in 10,000 tosses).


You can do the rest with the calculator and the Excel spreadsheets
No? How about 7 times in a row? (1 in 78 billion)
No? How about 8 times in a row? (1 in 2.8 trillion)

Learn and discover and fear nothing along the way.

The Greatest Baseball players do not always get a hit every time.
The Greatest Basketball players do not always make a basket and win every time.
Everyone talks about how Michael Jordan was the greatest,
but he won nothing until he got some other great players to play with him.
And his little 6 championships he has, Bill Russell just laughs at that one.


There is MUCH failure in success

You have a skill??, demonstrate it on a large stage, not in your house.

Quote: guido111

My opinion, Only you see it that way.
Alan asked some easy questions that only you can answer.
Now you are insulted again?? What really is your problem here?

You push your site and forum and your videos here, you want me to list every post that has this for you?,
and you get paid for people to click on them. I want that action!
What IS your angle?

I know it can not be all math since you have great comedy in your math interpretations for craps house edge calculations.
Again, only my opinion, DVD material.

Maybe you want more power here.
Mission146 became an admin.
Remember his first thread and simulations and math o things interest

I do. He throws around numbers and equations like rain falling from the sky.
Who knows how many errors exist in his work.

an example to show I am just not full of it.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/11043-12-roll-fire-bet/#post174328
Hey, we ALL make mistakes.

But, He impressed someone.

Who do you really want to impress?

Quote: 1BB

delete

Quote: teddys

Not to derail the thread, and not taking the side of Aaron or his would-be antagonists, does anyone else find it interesting that craps engenders more discussion and more mathematical simulations than any other game on this board, including blackjack and video poker, which it is proven can be beaten? I think it just proves that craps is the most fascinating and hermetic game in the casino...

the difference between craps and every other game in the casino is that craps has the potential (important: has the potential) of being the only game of physical skill. There is no RNG, there is no dealer shuffling the cards, there is no ball and spinning wheel.

This is what makes craps so enticing. The casino gives you two dice and you have your fate in your own hands -- and you can't blame an RNG, or a dealer, or a wheel, or a shuffler or anything. If you can master the dice, you win all the money.

That's what makes craps so sexy, so intriguing, and why so many people think they have a chance to beat the game.

I hope that someday, somewhere, someone will not only show that they have the skill to beat the game, but will also have a special hypnotic trance that they can put me in so that I can use the same muscle memory to also beat the casinos.

Quote: guido111

AlanM will film the damn event for free.
He did say for free right?

Absolutely for free. Show me the proof of the skill and I will put it on YouTube, on my website, and on my TV show. And this offer is open to all dice influencers, dice controllers, and dice mechanics: if you can legitimately*** control, influence, manipulate the dice to consistently beat the casinos, I will video tape your performance and put it on the web and on TV. I welcome the opportunity to be the one to show the world what you can do!!

***illegal throws, slides, rigging, unlawful acts not included.

Alan, right off the bat, do you have a way to get access to a NEX-FS700U sony camera (MSRP $8,000 plus lenses).

There seems to be several issues here.
Number One, is AHIGH a good crap shooter, and can he do things that seem extraordinary with the dice.
I’ve been on the crap table on several occasions at the Red Rock Resort when AHIGH was present and from what I’ve seen I would consider him a good shooter.

Did he do anything extraordinary?
Well …. it depends on what we call extraordinary.
He hit a four number “Fire bet” on my first encounter with him on the table.
The next time we crossed paths he was hitting come out HORN bets, (four in a row) and he put together a good hand.

But it’s his demeanor that sets him apart, at the tables and on the dice boards. He feels he is a good shooter, works hard at his craft, and looks to be recognized for his feats.

His shooting technique is not the typical DI style, and he seems to be a dedicated shooter, however I feel his good hands are over shadowed by his tall talk.

Perhaps a challenge is what’s needed to end all this confrontational dialog,
I can ….. No you can’t.
But will it really prove anything. I doubt it, because short trials prove nothing.

If AHIGH feels he is an extraordinary shooter, then I wish him good luck because I have my doubts good shooting equates to extraordinary shooting.

However, all of this is my unbiased opinion and …. from my observation of AHIGH'S shooting.

There seems to be several issues here.
Number One, is AHIGH a good crap shooter, and can he do things that seem extraordinary with the dice.
I’ve been on the crap table on several occasions at the Red Rock Resort when AHIGH was present and from what I’ve seen I would consider him a good shooter.

Did he do anything extraordinary?
Well …. it depends on what we call extraordinary.
He hit a four number “Fire bet” on my first encounter with him on the table.
The next time we crossed paths he was hitting come out HORN bets, (four in a row) and he put together a good hand.

But it’s his demeanor that sets him apart, at the tables and on the dice boards. He feels he is a good shooter, works hard at his craft, and looks to be recognized for his feats.

His shooting technique is not the typical DI style, and he seems to be a dedicated shooter, however I feel his good hands are over shadowed by his tall talk.

Perhaps a challenge is what’s needed to end all this confrontational dialog,
I can ….. No you can’t.
But will it really prove anything. I doubt it, because short trials prove nothing.

If AHIGH feels he is an extraordinary shooter, then I wish him good luck because I have my doubts good shooting equates to consistent extraordinary shooting .

However, all of this is my unbiased opinion and …. from my observation of AHIGH'S shooting.

Quote: Ahigh

Alan, right off the bat, do you have a way to get access to a NEX-FS700U sony camera (MSRP $8,000 plus lenses).

You can buy anything you want here in LA from a number of camera/equipment sellers but we use HD cameras that currently retial for $3,500 or less.

Today, you can have all the hardware and editing gear you need to put on a TV show for less than $10,000 unlike ten years ago when our edit bays would cost $40,000+ and Sony betacam cameras cost $40,000+

The business has changed dramatically.

I specifically want it for the full HD 240Hz High Framerate recording.

I think they rent for $200/day or so. But I was planning to buy one, but wanted to play with one first.

Quote: Ahigh

I specifically want it for the full HD 240Hz High Framerate recording.

I think they rent for $200/day or so. But I was planning to buy one, but wanted to play with one first.

You need to discuss this with someone like my cameraman/editor. I am not into that kind of technology. I just report, host, produce and make TV shows. But I would think that with today's computer edit systems even a basic HD camera that sells for a few hundred bucks would give you the ability to see things frame by frame, for example slow motion of a dice toss.

When i first started in TV news (early 1970s, when it was shot on film and not video) it took hours and hundreds of dollars for "slow motion." I was a producer at CBS when we got some extraordinary film of a champion water skiier who tumbled at a high rate of speed and Richard Salant who was president of CBS News told my department that he wanted a slo-motion version of the film sent to all the CBS affiliates on the "afternoon feed" so they could use it on their newscasts. Back in those days it was an all-day project. Today, you push a couple of buttons on a Mac and you have it.