Failed at discipline (again)

3/4/5x odds, $1000 buy-in.
game was choppy. i was never up this session but everytime i was close to going back to breakeven, i lose again.

so i'm at almost breakeven for the nth time. i told myself win or lose the next bet, i walk away.
i lost. But instead of walking again, i decided to bet $100 + max odds. LOST :(

and i knew it was stupid to do that bet even before the point was established. yet my hand reached out and put $ for max odds.

"I just wanted 1 more gamble..."
words that probably lead to more than a few gamblers demise especially this gambler.
SIGH!


edit:
it was stupid in that i would have been more unhappy if i lost than happy if i won.
so i ignored my risk/benefit analysis after i ignored my stop rules.

hopefully writing this will help for the next time (?)

This is perhaps part of the REAL house edge!

well, are you chasing losses? Is it taking more resources than you would like to keep up your bankroll? If you can answer no, don't sweat it. If the answer is yes, then you need to get a grip. Doesnt sound like denial though.

deleted

My paysheet contains a few "Franchise Players."

Franchise Players have lots of money, but no discipline.

"it was stupid"


Editor's correction. " YOU WERE STUPID "

Quote: odiousgambit

well, are you chasing losses? Is it taking more resources than you would like to keep up your bankroll? If you can answer no, don't sweat it. If the answer is yes, then you need to get a grip. Doesnt sound like denial though.

yes i was chasing losses. no discipline. went on tilt:
bet big. either way this ends and i go home.

The right play for me was to walk away from the table when i was no longer having fun.
and the thought of "Lets bet BIG" is the sign i'm on tilt and no longer having fun.

no, not taking more resources than i'm comfortable with to keep up my bankroll.
(still have a years expenses in the bank and growing. hm.. Hookers and blow is looking like a better option now...)


edit:
it was more frustration than chasing losses.
bet big and lets end this either way and go home

100XOdds,

I have been gambling for 38 years and learned the lessons the hard way but learned them well.

You have to set exact money mgt. guidelines for each session and each day depending on your PRE PLANNED goals.

Mine are to have a lot of small losses, a lot of small wins and some very big wins. All pre planned!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You have to stick to your money mgt. rules with no exceptions. Mine are to limit losses and push wins. Casinos hate me like I hate them (if you have followed any of my posts) :-)

There is an expression amongst old time gamblers "Turn a tooth pick into a lumber yard" It happens on a rare occasion but happens.

1.) What BigPete88 said, EXACTLY what BigPete88 said.

2.) I don't think anyone is going to tell you this, and please don't think I am pretending to know you, because I don't, but it might be time for you to consider stopping. If not permanently, than for awhile. You're chasing Even at this point, and you should NEVER, NEVER be chasing Even. If you are chasing Even, then you have more on the Table than you should have on the Table. If you EVER stop having fun, then you have too much on the Table.

The game should be fun, win or lose. Even is not a goal, it is salvation, to overcome money that you never actually wanted to lose. You should either want to win or lose. You have x amount for a session, you will either win y amount, or you will lose x amount. It's that simple. If you are ever concerned with getting even, then leaving, x amount was too high an amount to have on the Table.

You should never want to leave Even with your session amount, it's that simple, it should be an amount (unless you are Poker or AP BJ) to either be won or lost.

You say that you didn't want to gamble, but you did gamble, please consider whether or not you need to stop. Please consider whether or not you should reduce your session amount. If you just like the live game, it will be fun at any amount. You can play it cheap for a few hundred and usually last quite a long time worst case scenario.

3.) You have made threads about doubing bankroll, quickest way to win x amount, etc. etc. I am very concerned about this. Again, I don't pretend to know you, but I consider you my friend, a "Brother in Arms," so to speak. We both like to gamble, but bankroll management is important. If the game EVER stops being fun, you must demonstrate the willpower to leave. Please PM me if you have anything you'd like to discuss more privately.

Mission146

Great post about getting back to even should not be the goal. win y or lose x. stick to the plan. Discipline.

Quickest way to Win X was me trying to slowly approach Bold Play theory, which supposely gives me the best chance of achieving my win goal of $1000.

originally it was a betting strategy to just get under the $1200 W2G threshold. Playing Dark, $100+599 odds got me to around $1199.
i found it fun to bet the max to not get the W2G. but risking $700 meant a bankroll of $3500 for me.

but 7craps showed me the best chance to hit my win goal is Bold Play. Bet it ALL up to a table or W2G limit.


but i didnt understand Bold Play. (and i still might not: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/11150-3rolls-w-proper-bankroll-vs-2rolls-with-bold-play-bet-size/)

So i increased my bets: $25+ max odds would get me ~$1000 after 8 net wins.
If $65+max odds then i only need 3hits to get $1000.
i only need 2 hits using Bold Play to get to 1000.

its 2am and i dont know what i wrote made any sense. will probably edit it when i wake up in the morning.

Quote:

the best chance to hit my win goal is Bold Play. Bet it ALL up to a table or W2G limit.

My interpretation of all that chatter was the confirmation of the Kelly principle, and the Kelly in corollary. What I mean is:

Kelly is a bankroll strategy for player advantage. The player, like the casino, is better off with many small bets over and over again working with the edge. For the player it is also to avoid ruin. The question becomes something to solve by math, just how to size the bets.

When the other side has the advantage, Kelly is turned upside down. Instead of many small bets the player should make a few large bets as a proportion of bankroll, if he has certain goals and is willing to largely discard the entertainment factor. So I think what you were being told was application of this principle, certainly to avoid the 'many small bets' strategy for the goal you were trying to achieve.

I am concerned that you are taking this the wrong way. Instead of sizing your bets out of your bankroll, you may just be making large bets period. You may be making bets you weren't comfortable with before to try to hit your goal, but not decreasing the number of bets you make when you gamble. That would mean you have increased your bankroll just for this goal; was that something you really wanted to do?

I, like M-146 says, do not know you and am not intercepting and reading your mail. Perhaps our concerns are misplaced, but like him I think something does not quite sound right when we read your posts.

no, i wasnt expecting to increase my $1000 bankroll.

i just like maximizing my probability and it looks like Bold Play is it. I need $1575 Bankroll for that but not comfortable of only having 2.25x buy-in ($700 in bets). I only need 2 hits to win $1000.

The closest thing I can get is $65+max odds but i need $2300 bankroll. I need 3 hits to win $1000.

hm.. i guess i can apply my usual 5x loss limit on $700 and but i need $3500 bankroll.
And i'm definitely not comfortable with risking $3500 thus why I thought Bold Play was the best of both worlds? (Least exposure to HE and low bankroll needed.)

And $2300 is also more than i like.

ok, back to basics:
"This is for entertainment. risk what you're comfortable with to have fun."
I think i'll stick with $1000 bankroll.

Thanks for your insight Odiousgambit!

If "breaking even" is part of your goal - why gamble in the first place ? You always "break even" by not playing.

I don't think "breaking even" was his goal when he began playing in this session, it just became his goal to end this particular session. He began playing, lost some of his bankroll, won some to get back to his buy-in amount, lost some more, won some more, etc. He was simply trying to get back to the amount of his buy-in before he ended this session.

"Breaking even" isn't his normal goal, just the end point he was shooting for in this session.

duplicate delete

I, too, went on TILT this past weekend and am indeed ready for tough love

Not trying to hijack thread but if anyone wants to yell at me, here is the thread ---> Aceofspades goes full TILT

Quote: aceofspades

I, too, went on TILT this past weekend and am indeed ready for tough love

Not trying to hijack thread but if anyone wants to yell at me, here is the thread ---> Aceofspades goes full TILT

How about a change of scenery just for the heck of it? Jump in that Veyron and drive to Pennsylvania or Connecticut or both. Nothing to lose.

Quote: 1BB

Quote: aceofspades

I, too, went on TILT this past weekend and am indeed ready for tough love

Not trying to hijack thread but if anyone wants to yell at me, here is the thread ---> Aceofspades goes full TILT

How about a change of scenery just for the heck of it? Jump in that Veyron and drive to Pennsylvania or Connecticut or both. Nothing to lose.

HAHA I wish I had a Veyron :)

I am heading back this weekend because I am getting comp tix for a concert for family members. As such, it must again be AC. I am setting a small goal of +2,500 for the weekend. This will get me 1/3 back of last week's debacle.

Quote: aceofspades

Quote: 1BB

Quote: aceofspades

I, too, went on TILT this past weekend and am indeed ready for tough love

Not trying to hijack thread but if anyone wants to yell at me, here is the thread ---> Aceofspades goes full TILT

How about a change of scenery just for the heck of it? Jump in that Veyron and drive to Pennsylvania or Connecticut or both. Nothing to lose.

HAHA I wish I had a Veyron :)

I am heading back this weekend because I am getting comp tix for a concert for family members. As such, it must again be AC. I am setting a small goal of +2,500 for the weekend. This will get me 1/3 back of last week's debacle.

Barry Manilow?

Quote: 1BB

Barry Manilow?

Yes indeed 1BB

Quote: aceofspades

Yes indeed 1BB

Lucky!


*Closet Fanilow here...*

Quote: FarFromVegas

Lucky!


*Closet Fanilow here...*

I will not be attending, my mom and sis will..

I will hopefully be at the tables making money having learned my lesson

Quote: aceofspades

Quote: 1BB

Quote: aceofspades

I, too, went on TILT this past weekend and am indeed ready for tough love

Not trying to hijack thread but if anyone wants to yell at me, here is the thread ---> Aceofspades goes full TILT

How about a change of scenery just for the heck of it? Jump in that Veyron and drive to Pennsylvania or Connecticut or both. Nothing to lose.

HAHA I wish I had a Veyron :)

I am heading back this weekend because I am getting comp tix for a concert for family members. As such, it must again be AC. I am setting a small goal of +2,500 for the weekend. This will get me 1/3 back of last week's debacle.

You should try craps at the Copacabana. Nice lady named Lola is always there. :)

Quote: EdgeLooker

Quote: aceofspades

Quote: 1BB

Quote: aceofspades

I, too, went on TILT this past weekend and am indeed ready for tough love

Not trying to hijack thread but if anyone wants to yell at me, here is the thread ---> Aceofspades goes full TILT

How about a change of scenery just for the heck of it? Jump in that Veyron and drive to Pennsylvania or Connecticut or both. Nothing to lose.

HAHA I wish I had a Veyron :)

I am heading back this weekend because I am getting comp tix for a concert for family members. As such, it must again be AC. I am setting a small goal of +2,500 for the weekend. This will get me 1/3 back of last week's debacle.

You should try craps at the Copacabana. Nice lady named Lola is always there. :)

Was she a showgirl?

Quote: aceofspades

Quote: EdgeLooker

Quote: aceofspades

Quote: 1BB

Quote: aceofspades

I, too, went on TILT this past weekend and am indeed ready for tough love

Not trying to hijack thread but if anyone wants to yell at me, here is the thread ---> Aceofspades goes full TILT

How about a change of scenery just for the heck of it? Jump in that Veyron and drive to Pennsylvania or Connecticut or both. Nothing to lose.

HAHA I wish I had a Veyron :)

I am heading back this weekend because I am getting comp tix for a concert for family members. As such, it must again be AC. I am setting a small goal of +2,500 for the weekend. This will get me 1/3 back of last week's debacle.

You should try craps at the Copacabana. Nice lady named Lola is always there. :)

Was she a showgirl?

That was 30 years ago. When they used to have a show. Now it's a disco.

But not for Lola.

Quote: FarFromVegas

Quote: aceofspades

Quote: EdgeLooker

Quote: aceofspades

Quote: 1BB

Quote: aceofspades

I, too, went on TILT this past weekend and am indeed ready for tough love

Not trying to hijack thread but if anyone wants to yell at me, here is the thread ---> Aceofspades goes full TILT

How about a change of scenery just for the heck of it? Jump in that Veyron and drive to Pennsylvania or Connecticut or both. Nothing to lose.

HAHA I wish I had a Veyron :)

I am heading back this weekend because I am getting comp tix for a concert for family members. As such, it must again be AC. I am setting a small goal of +2,500 for the weekend. This will get me 1/3 back of last week's debacle.

You should try craps at the Copacabana. Nice lady named Lola is always there. :)

Was she a showgirl?

That was 30 years ago. When they used to have a show. Now it's a disco.

But not for Lola.

I heard she lost her mind!