High variance: Ride the streak or stop at 1 win?
August 31st, 2012 at 1:24:31 PM
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e-Craps (electronic everything but the dice are real), 3/4/5x.
*Playing Darkside*
e-craps is considered a slot machine, thus W2G on $1200+ (including ORIGINAL bet).
thus $100 flat/$600 odds will get you ~$1199 of which ~$500 is profit. (Using $100 for sake of simplicity. I know it's a little less if points are 5/9, 6/8.)
Lets say I bring $2400 to the table. My original wagers are $35/210odds and goal is to win $700 total (or quit when i'm down to $1200).
When at +700 I do a $100/600odds bet. if i win, i get +500. If i lose, i'm back at break even.
# wins at $100/$ won/cummulative total if win/Cumm total if lost:
1- $500/1200/0 (700-700)
2- 500/1700/500 (1200-700)
3- 500/2200/1000 (1700-700)
etc
Basically i'm betting $700 to win $500. I walk away at first loss.
Should I stop at the 1st win (+$1200)? or keep going till the streak ends?
What does the math say? should I just keep it at $35/210odds and never press for best chances of max payout?
edit:
looking at my table, if i walk away at 1st win, i am +1200.
if i keep going and lose at 3rd win, i'm only +1000. Basically I risked 2 more times and walk away with less $! WOW!!!
Looks like 1st win at $100/600odds and walk is the best play?!?!
*Playing Darkside*
e-craps is considered a slot machine, thus W2G on $1200+ (including ORIGINAL bet).
thus $100 flat/$600 odds will get you ~$1199 of which ~$500 is profit. (Using $100 for sake of simplicity. I know it's a little less if points are 5/9, 6/8.)
Lets say I bring $2400 to the table. My original wagers are $35/210odds and goal is to win $700 total (or quit when i'm down to $1200).
When at +700 I do a $100/600odds bet. if i win, i get +500. If i lose, i'm back at break even.
# wins at $100/$ won/cummulative total if win/Cumm total if lost:
1- $500/1200/0 (700-700)
2- 500/1700/500 (1200-700)
3- 500/2200/1000 (1700-700)
etc
Basically i'm betting $700 to win $500. I walk away at first loss.
Should I stop at the 1st win (+$1200)? or keep going till the streak ends?
What does the math say? should I just keep it at $35/210odds and never press for best chances of max payout?
edit:
looking at my table, if i walk away at 1st win, i am +1200.
if i keep going and lose at 3rd win, i'm only +1000. Basically I risked 2 more times and walk away with less $! WOW!!!
Looks like 1st win at $100/600odds and walk is the best play?!?!
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
August 31st, 2012 at 1:38:32 PM
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Quote: 100xOddsWhat does the math say?
The "math" says stop playing -EV games, it cannot get any simpler. But I'm sure you already know that.
If you want absolution for your play that's fine - play as long as you have fun with it. But don't ask for "math" if you don't like the answer.
