Press or stay at same bet? *Confused*

I've read that variance is your friend if you want to get ahead in a -EV game.

Bold play = bet BIG or go home.
betting 4/9 of your bankroll is optimal, from what posters have said.

if your win goal is $1000, then bankroll = 1000 * 9/4 = $2250.
bet $1000. if you lose, bet another $1000 then bet it again if you win.
if you lose, you are down to $250. Keep doubling up till you are +$1000.
ie: 250, 500, 1000, 2000, 1000, quit

thus if you lose the original bet, do the same bet and hope you double up twice.
if you immediately lose again, hope you double up 4 times to almost get back to your starting amount then start over again.


But 7Craps also said:
Pressing bets, without increasing one's bankroll, adds both variance (that is good) and -EV (that is bad).
the positive effect of variance is way less than the negative effect which is higher bust rates (higher risk of ruin).

The fallacy here is not only bigger bets can lose as well as win, but pumping wagers reduces the bankroll-to-bet ratio, the negative effect of which is stronger than the positive impact of higher volatility.


So Bold Play sounds contradictary to what 7Craps wrote since you have a VERY high risk of ruin.
Can someone reconcile the conflicting strategies? or help me understand why they're not conflicting???

I can't give you any math or logical reasoning, but let me tell you why I choose to press and press hard.

Because it's fun. Starting at $12 on the 6&8 allows me to reach $42 quite often (the magical "drop a white, get two greens"). Also, there's a little bit of gambler's fallacy. How often has a point been established, you throw $80 inside, then there's a seven out without you hitting anything? It won't happen all that often, but when it does it's a killer.

So I like starting low and building up for two main reasons. Psychological effect of not losing a lot after a quick 7-out as well as the emotional aspect of building up chip stacks on the table.

Also, most people who press hardcore have stopping points. It depends where I start off ($12-$30 depending on my bankroll) but I'll usually stop at $30, $42 and $60 to collect profits off of monster rolls.

By the way, I only place the 6/8. If the point is 6/8 I'll do a come bet with odds.

Quote: 100xOdds

I
Bold play = bet BIG or go home.
betting 4/9 of your bankroll is optimal, from what posters have said.

The 4/9 is just an example. It is not optimal unless it is the largest bet that can be made. Casinos have bet limits.

In Bold Play one bets exactly the amount needed to hit a win goal.

You got $1000 and want to win $1000, bet it all.

Now there may be cases where $1000 is higher than the max bet the casino has.
Say you can only bet $500 max but still want to win $1000.

First bet is $500, win and you have $1500, next bet is $500.

I am on my way to work and will look over your thread more closely later