What is the probability of someone rolling 17 fours and 18 tens in one hand of craps?

What is the probability of someone rolling 17 fours and 18 tens in one hand of craps? One of the guys that I work with knows that I play craps as he does. He came in this morning saying that he read about one of the guys on a board bragging about a roll that he had and the guy said he roll that many fours and tens in one roll, the guy said he thought it was about a 48 roll.
I wanted to know what he had smoked, that maybe he should go take a drug test, after repeating his story to me.
So how would you calculate the probability of doing so?

I figured this had to be the best site to come to that someone would know how to calculate it out.

Quote: TheLion

What is the probability of someone rolling 17 fours and 18 tens in one hand of craps?

One of the guys that I work with knows that I play craps as he does.
He came in this morning saying that he read about one of the guys on a board bragging about a roll that he had and the guy said he roll that many fours and tens in one roll, the guy said he thought it was about a 48 roll.
I wanted to know what he had smoked, that maybe he should go take a drug test, after repeating his story to me.
So how would you calculate the probability of doing so?

I figured this had to be the best site to come to that someone would know how to calculate it out.

All just a story.
Ask that player for proof. You will find none.

ALL Craps players say they just rolled for 45 minutes and rolled 19 6s and 8s
and they really only rolled for 5 minutes and only rolled 2 -6s and 8s.

Want the biggest fish stories??
IMO, Talk to any Craps player.

To answer your question, this is a binomial probability distribution, or better a Poisson distribution.
http://stattrek.com/probability-distributions/binomial.aspx?Tutorial=Stat

Either one gives about a 1 in 95,335,388,057,378,300 chance of exactly 35 4s and 10s in 48 rolls.
Slightly less for 35 or more.


Now if the player was sliding the dice and not rolling them, I can do even better.

Not ALL craps players exaggerate. Yes many do, just because people have very poor memories. But one really good roll that I had once, I know EXACTLY how many 6's and 8's (combined) were rolled because I know exactly how I pressed my bets, and how much money was left on the seven out.

I actually calculated something a little different. Not counting establishments of points. YOu would have a (1/3)^17 probability of rolling seventeen 4's before a seven. But then if you look at both combined: (1/2)^35 probability for any combination of 35 4's and 10's before a seven.

Since it's extraordinarily unlikely, then yeah, your friend is probably stretching the truth, but probably not on purpose.

I was at a craps table at Caesars... three of us at it... the shooter rolled 18 yos in a row. None of us had one single bet on the Yo the entire time. End of true story.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I was at a craps table at Caesars... three of us at it... the shooter rolled 18 yos in a row. None of us had one single bet on the Yo the entire time. End of true story.

I believe you. That happens 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,537,575,424 sequences of 18 rolls. Just to humor us, after 15 yo's in a row none of you threw a buck on the yo for the boys?

Going back to the original question...

Even if you change it to the probability of at least 35 rolls of 4 and/or 10 (which would include, for example, 35 10s, or 22 10s and 13 4s) in a hand, the probability of rolling a 4 or 10 before a 7 is 1/2, so the probability of doing it (at least) 35 times in a row is 1/2³⁵, or 1 in 34,359,738,368.
To further limit it to the condition that 17 of the 35 are 4s and the other 18 are 10s, in each of the 35 "counted" rolls (i.e. where the number is 4, 7, or 10), the chance of a 4 is the same as that of a 10, so we only need to find out the fraction of ordered sets of 35 4s/10s that contain 17 4s. There are 2³⁵ ordered sets, of which 35! / (17! x 18!) have 17 4s, so the fraction is about 0.1320606, and the final probability is about 1 in 260.2 billion.

Well I wouldn't call myself a math guy, but I wouldn't can myself a fool either. I don't think you need the math to know that it's just to implausible to think that it would happen.

Sounds like a good fishing story! To think that anybody would tell a story like that makes you wonder what this world is coming to, you can't even believe the craps players anymore. Sounds like one of those dice-influencing guys. That want's everybody to believe they are winning every time they go to the casinos.

I rolled 6 tens IN A ROW at the Cosmopolitan. Two were hard tens. I made zero dollars from those tens. I had a $25 buy on the ten on my previous roll (I was the only player at the table) and was planning to press it.

The dealers are familiar with how this works. They will say that the dice have a sick sense of humor.

As far as caring what the chances are, if you write down any ten rolls in a row and say "what are the chances of that happening again?" They are almost always astronomical.

For example, six tens in a row is one over twelve to the power of 6, or about one in three million. Sounds pretty impressive, but what's special about the ten?

Take off the first 1/12 because if it were a 4 instead of a 10 or some other number, you will still be just as amazed, and now it's only one in 250,000.

That's still astronomical, but I guess the thing is that it happens.

The thing that I am still waiting for and have never seen is any pair four in a row. I've seen pairs three in a row less than 36 times. Mathematically, but the time I see 3 pairs in a row 36 times, I'm probably going to see four in a row, but not yet!!!

But I have *talked* to people who have seen it .. many of them.

The least likely thing I have done is this:

I roll aces twice in a row, then 6-2 easy eight five times in a row. Any easy way five times in a row is only twice as likely as any pair four times in a row. And I got it on film.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3fpx6TGPdQ

About a week ago, I rolled aces, aces, sixty-three, aces, aces in the casino (sandwiching my aces four times in a row). That still got a lot of people's attention.

And I've rolled hard-ten, hard-ten, hard-six, hard-ten, hard-ten on another occasion.

I absolutely believe that I hit back-to-back pairs more often than random, but it could be a false belief. I have had them before!

But that's a big reason I do so much homework. I'll be making more conclusive evidence of my ability to throw dice for the skeptics in the coming months.

Here's a couple of items from more recently relating to things I'm doing.

Quote: SOOPOO

I believe you. That happens 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,537,575,424 sequences of 18 rolls. Just to humor us, after 15 yo's in a row none of you threw a buck on the yo for the boys?

I have one of those stupidstitions about jumping on a "hot" number. The couple of times I have done it (several rolls of the same number or at least a larger percentage of that number in a row--say 4 of 6 or something like that), the next number is the dreaded "7". My memory says every time, but I am sure it is less than that.

Based on the numbers, a "yo" is not a good bet; why would it suddenly attract the player who only makes the "right" moves? He'd never play it.

The rest (most) of us...well, we have our own "stupidstitions"...that is why we do things the way we do...

Quote: RonC

Based on the numbers, a "yo" is not a good bet; why would it suddenly attract the player who only makes the "right" moves? He'd never play it.

The rest (most) of us...well, we have our own "stupidstitions"...that is why we do things the way we do...

Generally speaking, most dealers know that they don't make much money at all in the long run on the line and odds. It's their JOB to effectively twist your arm and suggest that you need to win quick by betting something with a higher edge based on anything that they can come up with besides the house take off the pay.

Here's another thing that it interesting to try. Ask a dealer what the edge is on ANY bet. I am absolutely certain some dealers know, for example, what these numbers are. But in all my years, I generally never get a dealer to disclose numbers. Even *confirming* things like that when there is another player present, the most you're going to get a nod.

Any time a dealer tries to tell me, for example, "the odds are your best bet" I challenge them that this bet is actually two bets. Tell me if I had to make a single bet while someone else is playing, what is the best bet.

They generally have no clue. But for a single bet (and someone correct me if I'm wrong) I can buy the 4 for a 1.33% house edge if I buy it for $25 and take it down if and when it hits.

If I bet on the 50/50 chance that the four OR the ten comes up, I can get paid $49 for a $50 bet exactly half the time (a 1.00% house edge).

But just going to max odds on a six or an eight. The second bet is free, but you already lost 9.09% of your first bet when you make the second bet. So it's actually sort of a consolation prize bet as you have to lose a part of your first bet before they will even let you make it. And of course it looks like you have more on the table than you do, and you lose more often than not, and when you lose, you lose all at once.

There's a lot of psychology to many of these factors. One bit of psychology is this the player is lulled into a sense that they have good luck when they win more frequently than they lose, no matter the fact that they lose more than they win on each event.

If *all* that you bet is the four and ten for $25 each and you stick with that, the psychology is closer to baccarat, the minimums are just as low or lower, and there is no complex math. You also win exactly half the time, and the edge is pretty much unbeatable without increasing the complexity of how frequently you win or the details of how to place the bet or get paid.

But don't expect the dealers to even know paying 1/75 on the four is so much better than paying 2.50/62.50 on the 5 and 9. It's THREE TIMES CHEAPER, and most PLAYERS even don't have a clue about the 4% edge on the 5 and 9 and blissfully play 32 across without even knowing how those $0.50 per five bucks bet on the 5/9 or $1 per five bucks on the 4/10 bet add up each time they get paid.

Your job is to ignore the idiot and smile and nod and talk about any random thing while you win (if you ask me anyway).

Oops..

Quote: Ahigh

But just going to max odds on a six or an eight. The second bet is free, but you already lost 9.09% of your first bet when you make the second bet.

This is NOT what the math says and my billions of perfectly coded computer simulation have shown.

A flat out WRONG 100% statement you have posted.

The flat bet ALWAYS has a 7/495 house edge.
Not 9.09%.
The odds bet always has a 0% house edge.
but you already lost 1.414% of your first bet when you make the second bet.

You can not change that with your Enron Accounting tricks.
Another math challenged individual.

Okay lets change the wording around on this question. The new revised question is.
What is the probability of someone rolling 17 fours or 18 tens in one hand of craps?
In about 48 rolls of the dice.

I just wanted to say that I hate it when dealers use extreme variance (three 12's in a row) to point out the retarded bets. I know calling things "retarded" isn't politically correct, but betting on a hop bet that pays 29:1 with a HE of 16.67% is, in fact, retarded and the pit should be ashamed they aren't paying 30:1 at least.

Also, I taught my friend the beginnings of craps. He rolled the dice, both of which went flying about a foot above the wall and hit some poor people playing mini-bacc.

Quote: 7craps

This is NOT what the math says and my billions of perfectly coded computer simulation have shown.

A flat out WRONG 100% statement you have posted.

The flat bet ALWAYS has a -7/495 house edge.
Not 9.09%.
The odds bet always has a 0% house edge.
but you already lost 1.414% of your first bet when you make the second bet.

You can not change that with your Enron Accounting tricks.
Another math challenged individual.

The boat is getting crowded

When I make an odds bet on the 6 or 8, the edge on the passline has already gone up from 1.41% to 9.09%. The passline bet becomes a big6 big8 bet that you can't take back as soon as you roll the eight. Some people refer to it as a "put bet."

If it were still a passline bet with a 1.41% edge as you mistakenly believe it to be, the house would let you take it back.

Of course me talking to you after you blocked me with your arrogant post is even more entertaining because someone you haven't blocked will have to tell you that I wasn't wrong.

I take great offense to your posting. But I'm glad that you blocked me because I don't really care for your arrogant attitude.

Can someone with more math skills than 7-craps correct him for me on this thread?

Quote: TheLion

Okay lets change the wording around on this question. The new revised question is.
What is the probability of someone rolling 17 fours or 18 tens in one hand of craps?
In about 48 rolls of the dice.

The probability of rolling 17 fours before rolling a single seven is one over 3 to the power of 17.

Or about one in 129,140,163.

I could be wrong, as it appears 7 craps is the expert on this board.

The video I provided shows me rolling 6-2 five times in a row. That's 1 over 16 to the power of 5 for the chance of that happening.

Or 1 in 1,048,576

The chance of rolling any non-pair five times consecutively (instead of 6-2 specifically) is only one in 78,643. Still not very likely.

But I have it on film.

The thing about this and any other number of unlikely events is that when you start talking about betting on it. All kinds of unlikely things happen ALL THE TIME!!

Just like someone said .. the dealers see three pairs in a row, they say "that's coming up bet it" but I have NEVER seen 4 pairs in a row. It still happens one out of every 36 times three pairs in a row occurs on average.

But you know I want to say one more thing here while I have some people's ears.

I am really a little emotional about this 7 craps guy and his arrogant response to my post.

Somebody ask him what the edge on the passline bet is AFTER the point is established on a 6 or an 8 for me, would ya?

The edge changes on the passline bet after the point is established. I mean correct me if I'm wrong, and I will start making put bets on the 4 and 10. But I'm pretty sure the edge on the passline after a point is established can go up to 33.3%, RIGHT? LOL.

7 Craps simply does analysis....the rest of us on his blocked list actually play the game of Craps.

Quote: CrapsForever

7 Craps simply does analysis....the rest of us on his blocked list actually play the game of Craps.

Yeah conflicts like this are why I generally stay off other people's craps forums.

Oh well.

I refuse to argue with anyone about Craps....We have all seen the craziest things happen on Craps tables.

I NEVER ask for proof because I have seen enough to know anything can and will happen on a Craps table.

Yeah, I went and looked at his most recent posts where he posted some obviously false crap, and I, like a child, went back and did to him what he did to me, except that I had a reason to do it besides just the reason of being a total jerk.

It's just not worth arguing with him. Don't stoop to his level and risk being suspended from the forum. Apparently he has some kind of immunity because the manner he writes to a lot of people on this board seem like grounds for a suspension. Maybe I'm missing something there...

Regarding the Hardway streak; it's interesting that I have seen the SAME Hardway # thrown 3 times in a row numerous times (At least 10 times); I have personally done it once but I have never seen the same Hardway thrown 4 times in a row. I have seen someone throw 8 Hardways successively; He threw each Hardway once, then threw each Hardway again without any other #'s thrown in-between the Hardway rolls.

Quote: CrapsForever

It's just not worth arguing with him. Don't stoop to his level and risk being suspended from the forum. Apparently he has some kind of immunity because the manner he writes to a lot of people on this board seem like grounds for a suspension. Maybe I'm missing something there...

Regarding the Hardway streak; it's interesting that I have seen the SAME Hardway # thrown 3 times in a row numerous times (At least 10 times); I have personally done it once but I have never seen the same Hardway thrown 4 times in a row. I have seen someone throw 8 Hardways successively; He threw each Hardway once, then threw each Hardway again without any other #'s thrown in-between the Hardway rolls.

Yeah, I didn't have to read more than 4 of his posts to realize the issue was with him. And yeah I think I'm done with the troll no matter what he comes up with.

I do think it's great when people write simulators, but this guy has issues for sure.

I've been looking for any four pairs in a row for a couple years now and yeah I haven't seen it.

Obviously four of any pair, I've seen many times. I've done 4 of the same pair in 5 rolls with a pair in between twice!

But no same pair four in a row yet.

I still have a lot of work to do, and I have to stay focused away from the distractions like 7 craps and other people who divert my energy. It's good practice I guess to run into this kind of thing without losing too much time. But I generally just stay on my own forum to deal with it.

Quote: Ahigh

When I make an odds bet on the 6 or 8, the edge on the passline has already gone up from 1.41% to 9.09%.

You are still wrong but I understand you will never admit to you being wrong as you in your own mind is always right.

In other words, Your statement is false.

The edge never changes for pass line and come bets.
The edge (-7/495) is an AVERAGE of all the possible outcomes.
That is why it can not and never does change.
There are many paths it takes and the edge of each and every path is different.

I see that the Wizard himself has never said the pass line edge of 1.414% ever changes.
It is 1.414% over all possible outcomes.

What known gaming mathematician can you quote that agrees with your error filled statement?

The Wizard?
Dr Edward Thorp?
Stewart Ethier?
Alan Krigman?
Donald Catlin?
Henk Tijms?


You then are 100% against the Wizard and his math on this one.


Your math with mixing a 2 stage bet as in any line bet to a one stage put bet as being the same as an -1/11 house edge is
exactly how not to compare apples to apples, instead you compare apples to rocks and say they are one and the same.

I wonder if the Wizard would actually agree with your statement.
He sure stays very silent on most Craps questions and debates, and he is a winner of the $100K LVH Craps Tournament.

Remember the rules
Destroy the message but
not the messenger

removed
silly

So, let us assume that I am wrong.

When I make a passline bet after the point is established to a 6 or an 8, what I understand is a put bet, what would *you* tell me the edge is on that bet?

Give me a numerical answer, and then we can move on to establishing that I am wrong if you are in fact correct.

My point is that the money on top of the felt marked "passline" is no longer a passline bet.

If you are saying that I am wrong, and that it is still considered a passline bet, tell me how I can bet on ANY already-established point for a 1.41% edge, and I will readily admit that I am wrong.

We can assume you have never taken any math class above the high school level or any statistics class at all, correct, aahigh?
At the time you make a pass line bet the house has that nefarious 1.41% edge. That is calculated by summing the likelihood of you winning immediately with a seven or eleven, losing immediately with a two, three, or twelve, or establishing a point and either winning by hitting the point, or losing by hitting a seven first. YES- once you have a point of 6, you will win 5/11 of the time and lose 6/11 of the time. So, YES, once you have established that point the likelihood of you winning gives the house a 9% edge, but that is a MOOT point. Since no reasonable player will be betting on the passline after a point has been established, (rare exception of casino that offers ridiculously high (100x) odds), what is YOUR point?

Quote: aahigh

So, let us assume that I am wrong.

When I make a passline bet after the point is established to a 6 or an 8, what I understand is a put bet, what would *you* tell me the edge is on that bet?

Give me a numerical answer, and then we can move on to establishing that I am wrong if you are in fact correct.

My point is that the money on top of the felt marked "passline" is no longer a passline bet.

If you are saying that I am wrong, and that it is still considered a passline bet, tell me how I can bet on ANY already-established point for a 1.41% edge, and I will readily admit that I am wrong.

And just to clarify, I am not claiming that the edge on the passline bet itself changes. I am saying that the chip on the felt on the passline actually transforms into another bet known as the put bet when you roll a point. You can either say that the edge changes for the new bet known as a put bet, or you can say that your chances of winning the flat bet changes at that time, but the truth is that you have lost _something_ whether it is expressed as an edge or chances of winning, you have suffered as a result of rolling a box number on the passline.

But, yeah, school me. The thing I really take offense to is being SHUT DOWN, including by the Wizard himself. I don't post up here a lot, but I absolutely believe that there are trolls on this board. Go and read all the things that 7 craps said about my posts. They are ABSOLUTELY DENIGRATING and even SLANDEROUS. Abide by the rules, sure maybe. So what? Punish the new guy and let the craps dealer push me around?

If that's the way the Wizard wants to run his board, apparently I'm not the only one taking notice of the effects of just blindly following rules without regards to how it affects new people wanting to post good information on the board.

If everybody gangs up on me and says "Hey Ahigh you are an idiot and you know nothing" sure I will get lost. No problem.

But here's my question:

WHAT THE FREAKING HELL PEOPLE? WHY THE HELL ARE YOU GANGING UP ON ME?

Quote: SOOPOO

We can assume you have never taken any math class above the high school level or any statistics class at all, correct, aahigh?
At the time you make a pass line bet the house has that nefarious 1.41% edge. That is calculated by summing the likelihood of you winning immediately with a seven or eleven, losing immediately with a two, three, or twelve, or establishing a point and either winning by hitting the point, or losing by hitting a seven first. YES- once you have a point of 6, you will win 5/11 of the time and lose 6/11 of the time. So, YES, once you have established that point the likelihood of you winning gives the house a 9% edge, but that is a MOOT point. Since no reasonable player will be betting on the passline after a point has been established, (rare exception of casino that offers ridiculously high (100x) odds), what is YOUR point?

You would be wrong. I graduated with honors from Texas A&M in 1991. I took a class in Discrete and Combinatorial Mathematics as well as two Statistics classes. I majored in Computer Science and minored in Electrical Engineering.

If you read the first page of this thread, you would see my setup at home along with a statistical graph of outcomes created with GnuPlot from the software that I wrote.



I am a "Staff R&D Game/GFX engineer" for IGT. IGT is the largest slot machine manufacturer in the world.

Here is a link to my linked in profile:

http://www.linkedin.com/in/ahigh

You will find plenty of people vouching for my intelligence.

I have been programming video games for over 25 years.

The post accusing me of being stupid after I have all this evidence IN THE SAME THREAD is exactly what I'm talking about what is wrong with this forum.

It seems like people don't even read this stuff, they just jump on ANY OPPORTUNITY TO ATTACK SOMEONE.

Quote: aahigh

So, let us assume that I am wrong.

When I make a passline bet after the point is established to a 6 or an 8, what I understand is a put bet, what would *you* tell me what the edge is on that bet?

What you just said makes no sense at all.
You are still trying to say a pass line bet and a put bet are the same thing. They are not. They can never be.

You do NOT make a pass line bet after a point is established on a point of 6 or 8.
It is absolutely IMPOSSIBLE to be done. even if you think you are because you are placing your money in the pass line box.

One is now making a "put bet" on the 6 or 8.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/
under put bets

Why ask me?
PM the Wizard so he can answer it himself.
He was the one that banned you for something.
You will maybe believe him way more than some fat ugly 22 y/o girl like myself.
(let me see if I get banned for saying nasty things about myself, even if they are true)

Once a put bet is made, or odds bet is taken,
the winning probability and losing probability, for that put bet or odds bet is NOW exactly the same as a place bet for the same number.


Do not agree with me, find the answer from the Wizard and prove HIM wrong.
He has been proven wrong on many things he has posted on the internet.
It does not seem to bother him, I guess he would rather have any mistakes pointed out so they can be corrected.
Time to gang up on him and see who is left standing.

Quote: mustangsally

What you just said makes no sense at all.
You are still trying to say a pass line bet and a put bet are the same thing. They are not. They can never be.

You do NOT make a pass line bet after a point is established on a point of 6 or 8.
It is absolutely IMPOSSIBLE to be done. even if you think you are because you are placing your money in the pass line box.

One is now making a "put bet" on the 6 or 8.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/
under put bets

Why ask me?
PM the Wizard so he can answer it himself.
He was the one that banned you for something.
You will maybe believe him way more than some fat ugly 22 y/o girl like myself.
(let me see if I get banned for saying nasty things about myself, even if they are true)

Once a put bet is made, or odds bet is taken,
the winning probability and losing probability, for that put bet or odds bet is NOW exactly the same as a place bet for the same number.


Do not agree with me, find the answer from the Wizard and prove HIM wrong.
He has been proven wrong on many things he has posted on the internet.
It does not seem to bother him, I guess he would rather have any mistakes pointed out so they can be corrected.
Time to gang up on him and see who is left standing.

This is absolutely an argument about semantics. If you want to claim that you can't bet the line after the point is established, it's just a matter of what the bet is called when you put a chip on the passline.

Additionally, if you actually read what I wrote, you would see that I already knew that the chip on the passline is called a put bet after the point is established.

If you walked up to the table after the point is established, how would you tell who had a put bet and who had a line bet?

You don't. So if you can't tell if you walk up after the point is established, what is the difference between them in reality at that point?

I think it makes perfect sense to consider that they are all put bets at that point no matter how they were obtained, they are all put bets. Only someone who knows whether a bet just went up or not can distinguish between a pass line bet and a put bet.

Additionally, you actually lose something when the point is established.

Nobody is going to argue these points. We can argue all day long about what the bets are called and so on.

But all of this amounts to people just attacking me. And I think that some of the attacks are purely selfish in nature. I can't imagine how it helps ANYONE besides the person doing the attacking on me. And I have been through this on here before.

In the end, if the Wizard comes in here and bans me for life, that's totally okay by me.

But you guys are the ones left with this wonderful world where somebody comes in here and gets ransacked over some semantics of whether it's a put bet or a passline bet or whatever the hell that generally nobody even cares about.

It's just rather ridiculous to have these conversations if you ask me.

But if you want to say I'm stupid, just keep on with that, and we'll see how stupid I am.

I think it just makes all you guys look bad to attack me and everybody else on here all day long.

Quote: SOOPOO

Since no reasonable player will be betting on the passline after a point has been established, (rare exception of casino that offers ridiculously high (100x) odds), what is YOUR point?

I saw many players do exactly that at a 10X odds table. That got me asking many questions on why this was being done.
What I got from it was 10X odds on a put bet is a way better bet than the place bet for those that just do not like to ever
bet the pass line or the don't pass line.

I still am a little bit confused by it all. Some dealers did not even know what a put bet is.

Quote: aahigh

This is absolutely an argument about semantics. If you want to claim that you can't bet the line after the point is established, it's just a matter of what the bet is called when you put a chip on the passline.

I do not see it that way.
ANY put bet made will never have a 1.414% house edge.

There are not two stages to any put bet, just one.
Make the bet it wins on the number and is lost on a 7 all other numbers rolled are a push.
The Wizard has said this, not me.

A pass line bet ( or come bet) does not follow those rules.
When first made they win on a 7 or 11.
A put bet never wins on a 7 or 11.

I got a feeling you will show somehow that they (put bets) do.

Quote: mustangsally

I do not see it that way.
ANY put bet made will never have a 1.414% house edge.

There are not two stages to any put bet, just one.
Make the bet it wins on the number and is lost on a 7 all other numbers rolled are a push.
The Wizard has said this, not me.

A pass line bet ( or come bet) does not follow those rules.
When first made they win on a 7 or 11.
A put bet never wins on a 7 or 11.

I got a feeling you will show somehow that they (put bets) do.

You know what, I think you have misunderstood something. But I'm done.

I think this is all ridiculous. This whole conversation is absolutely ridiculous.

If you know the math as well as I do, I am pretty certain that you believe that you do, the only thing that we are arguing about is semantics.

I would like to challenge you and others on here though to not be so quick to make newcomers feel badly about what they have to contribute to these forums.

This has been an absolutely HORRIBLE experience for me on here.

What do you have to say about that?

Something is wrong with me?

Is that just how things go over here on this forum? People just argue about stupid stuff all day long and never learn anything at all?

Just wondering...

And not a SINGLE PERSON says

"wow that is a nice setup"

or "nice looking chart"

or "interesting information"

everything is just

YOU ARE WRONG

YOU PROBABLY DON'T HAVE ANY EDUCATION

I AM SMART BECAUSE I DID THIS OR THAT.

......................

REALLY?!?!?!

Really nice environment you guys have here.

Maybe go back and read the whole thread and think about what kind of effort I put into my contributions on this forum and then look at the response.

If you can do that and see what I see, I am very curious if you can even imagine what this is like for me.

Quote: Ahigh

I still have a lot of work to do, and I have to stay focused away from the distractions like 7 craps and other people who divert my energy. It's good practice I guess to run into this kind of thing without losing too much time. But I generally just stay on my own forum to deal with it.

Since you are into the Dice Influence scene, I would just offer IMO, stop answering others posts that have nothing to do with your work.
In one of your posts you show a fancy Craps table, some computer stuff and since we all do know that the game of Craps is not always 100% random,
what do you have?
Show it or name your price.

If you can make more money from selling your ideas to others that is great!
This is a free country.
If you want people to join your forum that is great too.

But enough of who is right and who is wrong.
Most will never believe the results of any computer simulations let alone a math formula,
so you now do not have to worry about proving anything.

Math is not about proof.
Just numbers.

But where is your data and ideas.
How much does it cost?
That is obviously why you are posting here at the WoV.

You can control the dice and make money from it and want to teach others.
That is a great ambition.

I have nothing to offer for sale

Quote: mustangsally

But where is your data and ideas.
How much does it cost?
That is obviously why you are posting here at the WoV.

Nope I'm not selling anything. I don't do classes. I do this stuff for fun.

And for the record, anybody who does sell this kind of stuff isn't making any money.

But again, this is still an attack on me. It is absolutely NOT obvious that I am posting on here to make money.

I make plenty of money, and I don't make it from playing craps or selling anything to anybody.

Seriously? Are you so down on other people that you don't have a place for a guy who enjoys the game this much and doesn't have an agenda?

Quote: aahigh

And just to clarify, I am not claiming that the edge on the passline bet itself changes.

I am saying that the chip on the felt on the passline

actually

transforms

into another bet known as the put bet when you roll a point.

LOL
The pass line bet (pass chip) made on the come out roll does no such thing.

I just can not stop laughing.


The house edge is over many bets, and this seems to be a very well kept secret from most craps players,
and where did you get the idea it now changes from a pass line to a put bet?

This is the greatest line since the HOAX of the 1.414% THREAD!

Where can I buy your DVD!
Enjoy I will

Quote: guido111

Quote: aahigh

And just to clarify, I am not claiming that the edge on the passline bet itself changes.

I am saying that the chip on the felt on the passline

actually

transforms

into another bet known as the put bet when you roll a point.

LOL
The pass line bet (pass chip) made on the come out roll does no such thing.

I just can not stop laughing.

The house edge is over many bets, and this seems to be a very well kept secret from most craps players,
and where did you get the idea it now changes from a pass line to a put bet?

This is the greatest line since the HOAX of the 1.414% THREAD!

Where can I buy your DVD!
Enjoy I will

I fail to find the humor in your comments. I'm anxious to see how other people distinguish between these two bets after the point is made.

There is absolutely a sport of ridiculing people in public here, and I continue to take great offense to these comments.

Quote: aahigh

I fail to find the humor in your comments.
I'm anxious to see how other people distinguish between these two bets after the point is made.

Me too
Especially the Wizard. I am sure he can break away from work and kids to comment on your very unique statements.

Quote: aahigh

There is absolutely a sport of ridiculing people in public here,
and I continue to take great offense to these comments.

Yes. It all started way back in grade school.
Kids can be cruel at times.


If the comments hurt your feelings, you are in a public forum, just ignore them.
Like the bug splat on your windshield as you drive down the road.

Even I can do it.

Quote: TheLion

Okay lets change the wording around on this question. The new revised question is.
What is the probability of someone rolling 17 fours or 18 tens in one hand of craps?
In about 48 rolls of the dice.

This is a different question from your OP.

"What is the probability of someone rolling 17 fours and 18 tens in one hand of craps? "

Your thread has been nicely hijacked and we at least owe you a good answer.
2 or 3 have already answered your first question and to me the same answer should apply to your second one unless it is a different question.
if it is a different question just use the online binomial probability calculator that was shown in a previous post.

if you do not understand how to use it, just ask.
We all use it or at least a spreadsheet.
Too much work to use a paper and pencil.

added:
Here is another method using the central limit theorem
A bit easier to work with at least for the first 2 calculations.

in about 48 rolls we should see on average 8 - 4s and 10s.
(6/36)*48

The variance will be (6/36)*(30/36)*48 = 6.67
standard deviation = square root of 6.67 or 2.58

So 35 - 4s and 10s showed.
35-8 = 27 more than average or 27/2.58
10.457 standard deviations more than average

7 standard deviations is about 1 in 390,682,215,445
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation
So 10 standard deviations higher would be a very LARGE number

You can calculate your other question for only 17 or 18 if that is what you also want to know

Quote: aahigh

Is that just how things go over here on this forum? People just argue about stupid stuff all day long and never learn anything at all?

Just wondering...

Yes. You will grow old fast if you take any of it personally.

I see both sides of this argument. Passline bets have a certain edge. Once a point of 6 or 8 is made, the odds on resolving the bet change. You missed one of your chances of winning it, rolling a come out 7. You no longer have a 1.4% house edge on that bet. It is worse, at 9.09%. In this sense, aahigh is right.

The others are right in another sense. The edge on the passline bet when you make it is always 1.4%. If you always intend to take max odds when a point is established, then your combo-bet has a substantially reduced edge. It is the best 'bet' on the table. If you want to be specific, the single best bet is probably a one-time 6/8 place, take it down if it doesn't resolve. Or, a buy 4/10 with commission paid on a win. But the best combination of bets is pass-line + odds, in the sense that no other combination of bets is synergistic.

Why did everyone get all upset about this? Do something important, go give your children a hug.

Quote: dwheatley

Yes. You will grow old fast if you take any of it personally.

I see both sides of this argument. Passline bets have a certain edge. Once a point of 6 or 8 is made, the odds on resolving the bet change. You missed one of your chances of winning it, rolling a come out 7. You no longer have a 1.4% house edge on that bet. It is worse, at 9.09%. In this sense, aahigh is right.

The others are right in another sense. The edge on the passline bet when you make it is always 1.4%. If you always intend to take max odds when a point is established, then your combo-bet has a substantially reduced edge. It is the best 'bet' on the table. If you want to be specific, the single best bet is probably a one-time 6/8 place, take it down if it doesn't resolve. Or, a buy 4/10 with commission paid on a win. But the best combination of bets is pass-line + odds, in the sense that no other combination of bets is synergistic.

Why did everyone get all upset about this? Do something important, go give your children a hug.

Thanks for some sanity!

I have seen something similar at the casino. At the Silverton, a guy just got done with a fantastic roll and was all full of himself. The guy next to him asked the crew "what's the best place to bet $25."

Peter (the boxman) told him "the four or ten is the best place by the edge."

The guy who just got done shooting jumped down his throat and started accusing the boxman of giving the guy bad advice.

He was in no way budging on his accusing the boxman of just trying to take the guy's money.

Peter didn't really argue, but he tried to explain the 1.33% house edge.

Security had to escort the guy out of the building. I think the fact that he rolled a long time made him rather arrogant.

When this started to happen, I was on the table, and two of the dealers both said "Aaron knows all this stuff."

I told them, "I'm staying out of this because this guy isn't going to listen to anybody."

But we all chuckled.

There are people who think that a $25 buy on the 10 is a 6.66% edge and would never believe anything different because that is what they "learned" about the 4 and 10.

So I don't know. My resolution is "whatever."

But you guys .. just like at the tables .. don't be so freaking quick to jump all over somebody, I mean. If somebody is there suggesting something that doesn't seem right, why just assume they have nothing to contribute instead of digging deeper.

Arrogance is not a good character trait.

" Arrogance is not a good character trait." Seems to work for Mitt Romney.