Math says same bet is better than pressing?

From this thread about Betting all profits:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/10933-betting-all-profit-till-i-hit-my-win-goal/#post171684

$2000 buy-in, 3/4/5x table
Only playing Don't Pass starting at $25 + max odds.
Leave at +750/-1000

Same bet of $25 Don't Pass/$150 odds has a better chance of reaching my win goal than pressing each Don't Pass by the profit I made on the previous bet.

But a $750 Don't Pass/$0 odds has the BEST chance of reaching my win goal.


Why isnt a $750 bet considered pressing?

Even if my win limit doubled to +1500/-1000, doing the same bet would give me better chances of achieving that than pressing.
Is there ANY time where pressing would be better than doing the same bet?

How is it considered pressing? Pressing means to increase your bet after winning. One bet is not pressing...

Exactly.
At a Craps table, when you tell a dealer to press your bet, they will double it.
Too many craps players use the word press to be any amount.

If you are not doubling your bet, pressing, you are just increasing it.
Parlay means to bet all your winnings on top of your bet.

The concept in that post is called Bold Play. Red and Black Game with bold play.
http://www.maa.org/joma/Volume8/Siegrist/Bold.xml
http://www.maa.org/joma/Volume8/Siegrist/RedBlack.xml

"Recall that with the strategy of bold play in red and black, the gambler on each game bets either her entire fortune or the amount needed to reach the target fortune, whichever is smaller"

Bold Play in an unfair game, a game with a house edge, is an optimal way to play to hit a target goal.

added:
Love the mathematical terms Bold Play and Timid Play.

Enjoy!

Quote: guido111

At a Craps table, when you tell a dealer to press your bet, they will double it.

This confusion is why I've started just saying "press it x units" where x is usually one or two. For anyone betting greens at a craps table on a regular basis, does the term "unit" change if you're always betting 25+? I could imagine that "unit" would become 25&30 as compared to 5&6 if you never dip below that.

I always thought that at a green chip ($25) table if you say "press" or "press me up a unit" the dealer would add another green chip to your bet. That's the way it always was at Caesars until....

....until about six months ago when several new dealers started in the craps pit.

So there I am and I am shooting and a good roll is going and it was time to press. The 5 is rolled. I have $25 on the 5 (table minimum) and I say, "press it up one unit." I said press it up one unit because some of the dealers will press the 5 and 9 by $10 and give $25 to the player. So I said "one unit" so the 5 would look like 50.

So... what does the new dealer do? He adds a red chip ($5) to the 5 and slides $30 to me.

I stop and look. The floorman stops and looks. So I start to look around. I look at the ceiling. I look at the tables behind me. I look at the felt and run my hands over the word "caesars" on the layout. Then I look at the floorman and say, "this is still Caesars Palace, isn't it?" And the floorman smiles. And I say, "since when is pressing one unit a red chip at a $25 table?" The floorman laughs, and the new dealer starts going into a spiel about five dollars being "one unit."

So, maybe they teach the new delers that one unit is five dollars, even when it's a $25 table. Now, with so many new dealers there, I say "make it look like ____" instead of press it.

Quote: AlanMendelson

So, maybe they teach the new delers that one unit is five dollars, even when it's a $25 table. Now, with so many new dealers there, I say "make it look like ____" instead of press it.

Yeah I love it when you find a dealer where everything just goes perfectly. When I get a newbie though, yeah I'll say "____ total".

*I accidentally flagged Alan's post twice.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I always thought that at a green chip ($25) table if you say "press" or "press me up a unit" the dealer would add another green chip to your bet. That's the way it always was at Caesars until....

If your first bet were $25.usd(or $30.usd on the 6/8) you only say "press" on the first press/double in cases where you want to go up one unit. After this you say "press one unit" etc. unless you in fact want to double the wager on the table/point at the time it hits/wins. I'm sure you understand this but in reading this discussion it seems to have gotten lost in the translations.

Quote: guido111

The concept in that post is called Bold Play. Red and Black Game with bold play.
http://www.maa.org/joma/Volume8/Siegrist/Bold.xml
http://www.maa.org/joma/Volume8/Siegrist/RedBlack.xml

"Recall that with the strategy of bold play in red and black, the gambler on each game bets either her entire fortune or the amount needed to reach the target fortune, whichever is smaller"

Bold Play in an unfair game, a game with a house edge, is an optimal way to play to hit a target goal.

added:
Love the mathematical terms Bold Play and Timid Play.

Enjoy!

ugg.. too much math in your links. :)

so basically bet it all.. double or nothing till you hit your win goal.

but why all $750 on Dont pass instead of $107 dont pass/642 odds?

Quote: 100xOdds

so basically bet it all.. double or nothing till you hit your win goal.

Only if your goal is to maximize the probability of hitting a win goal.
Bold Play also minimizes the number of trials needed.

So if you place value on playing longer, then you can not reach any win goal with the highest possible probability of success.

Quote: 100xOdds

but why all $750 on Dont pass

It maximizes the probability of success of hitting a win goal.
A simulation or simple calculation proves this to be true.

Quote: 100xOdds

instead of $107 dont pass/642 odds?

Come on.
One can never win $750 with your stated wager on one decision.

I think it was Stewart Ethier back in the 1980s that wrote a paper showing the don't pass with odds can show a higher winning probability of hitting a win goal than betting it all.
If I remember right, it was theoretical and not practical.
one has to be able to make exact fractional bets of one's bankroll. Bet 4/9 of $1000 for example. 444.44 will not work.

Since you have mentioned you like to play for at least an hour, just make sure most of your wager is on the odds.
That will give you the best of the 2 worlds you want.

opps on the $107/642 odds Dont pass.
Yeah, no matter what the point is, i cant win $750.

so bacarat is the game i want to play if my win goal is $750. ($750 all on banker.)

4/9 is somewhat more practical w/electronic table games.
i *think* u can bet 444.44 in e-baccarat.

but whats the point of 4/9?
if you lose twice, you're left with $111.12 if you start with $1000.

Quote: 100xOdds

opps on the $107/642 odds Dont pass.
Yeah, no matter what the point is, i cant win $750.

so bacarat is the game i want to play if my win goal is $750. ($750 all on banker.)

You still have to pay 5% commission except if you play EZ Baccarat.
You would net $712.50 so you would have to make a larger bet to offset the commission.

The win goal probabilities are not really that far off if the Banker bet is $750 and pays 5% commission.
Baccarat: [1] 56.36492%
Don't Pass: [1] 56.22715%
Pass: [1] 56.21962%

I doubt one could see the difference in many attempts.

Quote: 100xOdds

4/9 is somewhat more practical w/electronic table games.
i *think* u can bet 444.44 in e-baccarat.

but whats the point of 4/9?
if you lose twice, you're left with $111.12 if you start with $1000.

This was just an example from that craps don't pass bold play paper.
Then you bet your last $111.12 and hope to double up.

But, The example in that craps paper was to bet exactly 4/9 of $1000
and 444.44 is not exactly 4/9. Close but no cigar.
And it also assumed no table limits.
That mathematician was not playing in the real world with his Bold Play craps idea.

when you say 4/9, thats your win goal? thus you have to bring 2.25x to the table?
ie: if $444.44 is the WG then bring $1000 to the table. (444.44 x 2.25)

if win goal is 1000, then bet 444.44.
if you lose twice in a row then you are down to 111.12.
you have to double up twice (111.12 -> 222.24 -> 444.48) to get to your win goal.

ingenous!!!

Quote: 100xOdds

ingenous!!!

All this talk of a "win goal" but never a time. Can you kindly explain why you have a win goal without any explanation of the session time. I mean, do you want as some do, to win $1000.usd a day and call it quits, or is this an hour?

If not an hour, why not? Certainly it's possible by doubling until you win as long as you have the bankroll and the house has the limits which some must.

I spent a week in Reno doing this, but my win "goal" was only $200.usd a day. I won it six straight days and quit each day. Then on the seventh day I lost $1500.usd without much explanation or fanfare. They just took my money! and would not give it back despite my explanations I only wanted to win $200.usd.