100% profit. Stop or ride out the streak?
Poll
 | 14 votes (77.77%) | ||
| | 4 votes (22.22%) |
18 members have voted
August 6th, 2012 at 1:53:23 PM
permalink
3/4/5x odds.
Playing the Darkside but only on the Passline #.
Kept pressing and winning.
Won at $60/$360 odds which put me at 100% profit.
started at $1000, now at $2000.
Next press is $85 which is $510 odds (total on table = $595).
If i lose, i'm down to $400 profit.
Press, or walk away at 100% profit?
WHY?
edit:
How do you edit the poll? i want to correct a spelling mistake.
Playing the Darkside but only on the Passline #.
Kept pressing and winning.
Won at $60/$360 odds which put me at 100% profit.
started at $1000, now at $2000.
Next press is $85 which is $510 odds (total on table = $595).
If i lose, i'm down to $400 profit.
Press, or walk away at 100% profit?
WHY?
edit:
How do you edit the poll? i want to correct a spelling mistake.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
August 6th, 2012 at 2:15:03 PM
permalink
Quote: 100xOddsHow do you edit the poll? i want to correct a spelling mistake.
You can't, so I just fixed it for you.
August 6th, 2012 at 2:23:52 PM
permalink
Quote: 100xOddsPress, or walk away at 100% profit?
WHY?
I voted, "ride the streak". Even if you lose this round, you will still be up 40%. If you are concerned about locking up your profit, lower your line bet/odds. That way if the streak continues, at least you will have made something. Don't walk away from a winning streak.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
August 6th, 2012 at 2:26:52 PM
permalink
You have to decide what is your profit objective.
You are currently UP $1,000 from a $1,000 buy-in. If I were in your shoes, I would lock up $800 profit and only play with the remaining $200 profit. I would continue locking up each additional $200 profit and increase my overall guaranteed profit. Once I lose the $200 on the table which includes my rack amount, I would be done for the day.
Good Luck!
You are currently UP $1,000 from a $1,000 buy-in. If I were in your shoes, I would lock up $800 profit and only play with the remaining $200 profit. I would continue locking up each additional $200 profit and increase my overall guaranteed profit. Once I lose the $200 on the table which includes my rack amount, I would be done for the day.
Good Luck!
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
August 6th, 2012 at 2:28:45 PM
permalink
Ride the streak, but lock up profit by reducing the odds. this is a discipline I need to learn.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back !
Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
August 6th, 2012 at 2:31:05 PM
permalink
Ride it of course. Play for pleasure, not for profit (there are many much better ways to make money). Unless you are tired and want to go home, or just need to be somewhere else, keep playing. Why the hell not?
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
August 6th, 2012 at 2:37:05 PM
permalink
Keep going.Quote: 100xOdds3/4/5x odds.
Playing the Darkside but only on the Passline #.
Kept pressing and winning.
Won at $60/$360 odds which put me at 100% profit.
started at $1000, now at $2000.
Next press is $85 which is $510 odds (total on table = $595).
If i lose, i'm down to $400 profit.
Press, or walk away at 100% profit?
WHY?
Why? because you still have a chance to make another $1000
No stop and run.
But you are going to play again at another time right?
Then it really does not matter, so I say
Ride a winning streak or trend
But...
How far can it go???
Not knowing exactly your progression starting point and max bet, I get these simulation results from 100,000 players
turn 1000 into 2000 = 2X
turn 1000 into 5000 = 5X etc
When you play long enough you have the possibility of turning 1000 into 5000 in 18 out of 100 sessions.
So if you ALWAYS quit up $1000 you will not see that $4000 profit in one session.
It now takes many sessions.
Will that make up for your losses??
Win goal was met . . .
2X: 46.816% of the time ( 46816)
3X: 31.463% of the time ( 31463)
4X: 23.525% of the time ( 23525)
5X: 18.555% of the time ( 18555)
6X: 15.402% of the time ( 15402)
11X: 7.923% of the time ( 7923)I Heart Vi Hart
August 6th, 2012 at 2:52:37 PM
permalink
Completely subjective question, depends how much $1000 is worth to you. If $1000 means something to you, like doubling your bankroll, then walk away and be happy. On the other hand, if you want to keep playing, why not lower your variance but still keep things exciting? You could easily see a $500 swing in a half an hour betting $10-20/$60-120 or even $5/$30 and constantly don't coming.
If it were me, I'd drop to $10/$60.
If it were me, I'd drop to $10/$60.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
August 6th, 2012 at 5:54:22 PM
permalink
100% happens to be my exact profit objective at the tables, so you know how I voted.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
August 6th, 2012 at 7:46:41 PM
permalink
"Till" is not the word that you think it is.Quote: JBYou can't, so I just fixed it for you.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
August 6th, 2012 at 7:47:33 PM
permalink
Quote: s2dbaker"Till" is not the word that you think it is.
That wasn't what I fixed; "away" was spelled "awy"
August 6th, 2012 at 10:03:01 PM
permalink
I would not pick either on the vote. I guess that makes me independent :-)
Like a prior poster, I would lock in a profit, 75% IMHO instread of 80%, and ride out the rest.
I would try to run the 25% profit way up which happens on ocassion.
The 70 days that I played blackjack last year, 10 of those days made the years profit by pushing wins.
I had my goals set years before entering the casino for that day.
The question was a very good one from a practical point of view from the casino floor.
"Chance favors the prepared mind" Pasteur
Like a prior poster, I would lock in a profit, 75% IMHO instread of 80%, and ride out the rest.
I would try to run the 25% profit way up which happens on ocassion.
The 70 days that I played blackjack last year, 10 of those days made the years profit by pushing wins.
I had my goals set years before entering the casino for that day.
The question was a very good one from a practical point of view from the casino floor.
"Chance favors the prepared mind" Pasteur
August 7th, 2012 at 3:25:36 PM
permalink
thx for the suggestion about locking profits in.
from one of my previous posts, it seems the walk away point is either 30% win or 50% loss.
so if i start at $2000, then i quit at +$600 or - $1000.
but from this thread, i should keep riding the win streak.
to combine to the suggestions of the 2 threads:
quit at +30% profit unless you're on a streak. keep going, but bet less to lock up profits.
this is what i'm thinking:
if i start Start with $2000 then stopping point is +600.
I'm on a streak and am up $500. I risk all $500 profit. (ie: $70 dont, $420 odds)
If i win, i'm up to $900. Risk $300:
-if i lose that 300, i'm down to +600 and stop.
- if i win that 300, keep going till the streak ends and stop.
hows that sound?
from one of my previous posts, it seems the walk away point is either 30% win or 50% loss.
so if i start at $2000, then i quit at +$600 or - $1000.
but from this thread, i should keep riding the win streak.
to combine to the suggestions of the 2 threads:
quit at +30% profit unless you're on a streak. keep going, but bet less to lock up profits.
this is what i'm thinking:
if i start Start with $2000 then stopping point is +600.
I'm on a streak and am up $500. I risk all $500 profit. (ie: $70 dont, $420 odds)
If i win, i'm up to $900. Risk $300:
-if i lose that 300, i'm down to +600 and stop.
- if i win that 300, keep going till the streak ends and stop.
hows that sound?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
August 7th, 2012 at 3:29:46 PM
permalink
Like you win more when you win and lose more when you lose. What an amazing concept.
August 7th, 2012 at 4:08:54 PM
permalink
Quote: 100xOddsthx for the suggestion about locking profits in.
from one of my previous posts, it seems the walk away point is either 30% win or 50% loss.
so if i start at $2000, then i quit at +$600 or - $1000.
but from this thread, i should keep riding the win streak.
to combine to the suggestions of the 2 threads:
quit at +30% profit unless you're on a streak. keep going, but bet less to lock up profits.
this is what i'm thinking:
if i start Start with $2000 then stopping point is +600.
I'm on a streak and am up $500. I risk all $500 profit. (ie: $70 dont, $420 odds)
If i win, i'm up to $900. Risk $300:
-if i lose that 300, i'm down to +600 and stop.
- if i win that 300, keep going till the streak ends and stop.
hows that sound?
It sounds risky. If your pre-determined walk away floor is $600, why risk $500 when you are only $100 away?
I would recommend taking a portion of each win (say 50%) and locking it up instead of parlaying the entire amount after each win. You won't hit the Moon as quickly, but you also won't lose your entire BR on one bad outcome. Keep locking up your wins this way until the streak ends.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
August 7th, 2012 at 4:32:31 PM
permalink
Quote: AyecarumbaQuote: 100xOddsthx for the suggestion about locking profits in.
from one of my previous posts, it seems the walk away point is either 30% win or 50% loss.
so if i start at $2000, then i quit at +$600 or - $1000.
but from this thread, i should keep riding the win streak.
to combine to the suggestions of the 2 threads:
quit at +30% profit unless you're on a streak. keep going, but bet less to lock up profits.
this is what i'm thinking:
if i start Start with $2000 then stopping point is +600.
I'm on a streak and am up $500. I risk all $500 profit. (ie: $70 dont, $420 odds)
If i win, i'm up to $900. Risk $300:
-if i lose that 300, i'm down to +600 and stop.
- if i win that 300, keep going till the streak ends and stop.
hows that sound?
It sounds risky. If your pre-determined walk away floor is $600, why risk $500 when you are only $100 away?
I would recommend taking a portion of each win (say 50%) and locking it up instead of parlaying the entire amount after each win. You won't hit the Moon as quickly, but you also won't lose your entire BR on one bad outcome. Keep locking up your wins this way until the streak ends.
because i would stop at +600. risk all $500 profit would enble me to keep playing.
if i win, i'm at 900. if i lose, i'm back to break even.
either way, i keep playing.
i guess my main goal is to ride out a streak. so i guess +$600 is my secondary goal once the primary is reached.
Make sense? or should I call Gamblers Anon?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
August 7th, 2012 at 4:33:50 PM
permalink
It sounds like $500 isn't really a large amount of money to you (you're perfectly willing to lose it). Go ahead and gamble away your entire profit margin, if you win you'll get a ginormous rush :). If you lose, buy yourself a Big Mac and be happy that you're only back to even.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
August 7th, 2012 at 5:26:58 PM
permalink
Quote: ahiromuIt sounds like $500 isn't really a large amount of money to you (you're perfectly willing to lose it). Go ahead and gamble away your entire profit margin, if you win you'll get a ginormous rush :). If you lose, buy yourself a Big Mac and be happy that you're only back to even.
ahh.. so quit if i lose my entire profit margin?
walk away w/the feeling of the fish that got away and come back another day. hm.. i still walk away w/a good feeling of almost getting there.
instead of the fish that got away, keep playing and losing 50% of starting bankroll ($1000) then quitting. this feeling would SUCK.
Thx for the suggestion!
So basically, when i get to the point of risking all my profits, I quit once i lose.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
August 7th, 2012 at 8:55:06 PM
permalink
I tend to have a bunch of small losses, a lot of break evens, and a few huge wins mixed in there. I find if I just win a couple hundred bucks I don't get enough of a feel-good gambling rush as compared to the occasional huge win. Again, it depends entirely on your personality but that's how I approach the money management issue - do what makes me happiest.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
August 7th, 2012 at 9:28:46 PM
permalink
Well, since you're a darkside player I hope you go bust. :-) But if you were a right-way player I would suggest as others have that you reduce your exposure, make smaller bets and lock up a profit.
August 8th, 2012 at 1:52:45 AM
permalink
If you plan on returning anyway, it doesn't really matter when you quit your session.
August 8th, 2012 at 9:59:37 AM
permalink
Quote: MangoJIf you plan on returning anyway, it doesn't really matter when you quit your session.
It depends. Do you want to lose what you have and then start over with more money out of your pocket? Or do you want to pocket this profit, and use this profit for the next time you play?
The "video poker APs" claim it makes no difference when you quit or if you quit with a profit. They argue that quitting with a profit will not make you a winner on a negative expectation game.
Craps is a negative expectation game. But I would rather use today's profits to finance my next session of play. Wouldn't you? Or do you want to keep playing till you lose?
Have you ever "regressed" your bets after a long roll? Ever taken down your bets during a long roll?
August 8th, 2012 at 10:05:52 AM
permalink
Bet it all now and save the expense of a return trip. LOL
I am always amazed when a guygoes bust and says i should have quit when i was $1200 ahead.
That was the farthest he was ahead, What an amazing co-incidence.
He could have quit at 800. But he would have not made it to 1200.
Or quit at 400 and never made it to $500.
Screw what you were or were not ahead. Set a goal and live by it.
If only to have dinner while still a winner,
Of course if you have a real edge, why quit?
OOOPS forgot we are talking about craps. By maybe you do gave an edge? Are you a graduate of my SET DICE TO WIN BIG school ?
I am always amazed when a guygoes bust and says i should have quit when i was $1200 ahead.
That was the farthest he was ahead, What an amazing co-incidence.
He could have quit at 800. But he would have not made it to 1200.
Or quit at 400 and never made it to $500.
Screw what you were or were not ahead. Set a goal and live by it.
If only to have dinner while still a winner,
Of course if you have a real edge, why quit?
OOOPS forgot we are talking about craps. By maybe you do gave an edge? Are you a graduate of my SET DICE TO WIN BIG school ?
August 8th, 2012 at 10:06:39 AM
permalink
+1 to Buzz and AlanMendelson
It's your money the second that you win it, that's an important thing to remember. You're not losing the, "Casino's money," if you continue to play and lose, you're not losing, "Found money," you're losing YOUR money.
If it's only about the entertainment, the action, why set a time/money limit at all? Just quit when you get bored or go bust. I don't understand the, "It's a negative expectation game, so there's really no reason to walk away ahead," argument. It's nonsense, in my opinion. The main appeal to the casino, at least for me, is that it is a form of entertainment where I CAN walk away ahead. I can't do that at a concert, movie, or really much anything else.
If I were playing just to play, and this is particularly true with slots, I would just play the Slots games on Bovada for free. I like free on-line table games, because those I really am playing just to play. I go to the casino to turn an amount of money that is not especially meaningful into, at least, a more meaningful amount and have fun in the process.
It's your money the second that you win it, that's an important thing to remember. You're not losing the, "Casino's money," if you continue to play and lose, you're not losing, "Found money," you're losing YOUR money.
If it's only about the entertainment, the action, why set a time/money limit at all? Just quit when you get bored or go bust. I don't understand the, "It's a negative expectation game, so there's really no reason to walk away ahead," argument. It's nonsense, in my opinion. The main appeal to the casino, at least for me, is that it is a form of entertainment where I CAN walk away ahead. I can't do that at a concert, movie, or really much anything else.
If I were playing just to play, and this is particularly true with slots, I would just play the Slots games on Bovada for free. I like free on-line table games, because those I really am playing just to play. I go to the casino to turn an amount of money that is not especially meaningful into, at least, a more meaningful amount and have fun in the process.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
August 8th, 2012 at 10:24:47 AM
permalink
In 1968 I got married and had to go over to the DARK SIDE. No more running bets, occasionally reminding bettors to set up a payment plan with me rather than expect a visit from Tony the Jawbreaker, no more hustling pool in strange bars, ( those 3 by 7 tables
were every hustlers dream come true ). I went to work for AT&T. Paid taxes even.
I would take $20 to the track every Saturday in spring and summer. Take home pay was only $118. $2 to get in, Bought form the night before. $18 for 9 races.
Several times I would come home and slide 1 or 2$100 bills in the baby's diaper for wife to find later,
Had a real religious brother-in-law who was always on my back. I would usually go to track 20-25 times a year. He had season Colt tickets. One day he told me how much his package was, I innocently asked about parking, eating, etc and soon got him to the $400-$500 range. Then I asked him how often he came home winners. He stormed out of my house and stayed away for 2 months.
were every hustlers dream come true ). I went to work for AT&T. Paid taxes even.
I would take $20 to the track every Saturday in spring and summer. Take home pay was only $118. $2 to get in, Bought form the night before. $18 for 9 races.
Several times I would come home and slide 1 or 2$100 bills in the baby's diaper for wife to find later,
Had a real religious brother-in-law who was always on my back. I would usually go to track 20-25 times a year. He had season Colt tickets. One day he told me how much his package was, I innocently asked about parking, eating, etc and soon got him to the $400-$500 range. Then I asked him how often he came home winners. He stormed out of my house and stayed away for 2 months.
August 8th, 2012 at 10:42:53 AM
permalink
Quote: AlanMendelsonIt depends. Do you want to lose what you have and then start over with more money out of your pocket? Or do you want to pocket this profit, and use this profit for the next time you play?
The "video poker APs" claim it makes no difference when you quit or if you quit with a profit. They argue that quitting with a profit will not make you a winner on a negative expectation game.
Because it doesn't make a difference. Whether or not playing the game of session A is equivalent of whether or not playing the game of session B.
So if you have already settled on playing the first game of session B (that is, you plan on returning to the game) it would be consistent to play on session A.
And yes that DOES imply to "play till you lose". Thats the very nature of every negative expectation game - Who do you think will always pay the bill ?
Quote:
Craps is a negative expectation game. But I would rather use today's profits to finance my next session of play. Wouldn't you? Or do you want to keep playing till you lose?
I wouldn't want to play any negative expectation game in the first place for this very reason. Because I'm not a friend of "play till you lose".
