guido111
guido111
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August 1st, 2012 at 10:15:29 PM permalink
This needs its own thread.

From:
http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/10806-how-many-come-bets-are-optimal/
======================================================================
RaleighCraps says...


All of my internal being is screaming, "Do not post", but I will not heed.......

First, I agree that from a pure mathematical standpoint, PL and CB has the lowest house edge (ignoring Don't Play).

BUT, I contend that Place/Buy bets do not give up that much in the short term session that will be my lifetime rolls in craps.

Ultimately, what really determines the outcome of my next craps session (two of them this Friday) will be whether or not the shooters hit the numbers I am playing! Whether they are CB, PL, Buy, or Place is really irrelevant.

I understand I am giving up some small house edge by making a place bet, but so what if the shooter rolls my Place 9. I have played on tables where the Place bettors and the CB got killed, while the guy next to me played the stupid Horn High Yo, and Horn High 3 every roll for $5 to $25 and tripled his buy in! Arguably the worst bets on the table, but the horn numbers were coming out way above what the math dictates, so he cleaned up. Try and tell him that was really stupid betting.
I am sure he gets his butt kicked if he plays that way all the time, but 'perhaps' he is a trend player, and decided he was seeing too many horn numbers, so he 'played the trend'. Who knows. All I know is he was a winner, and the rest of us playing by the math, got smoked.

I was playing at the Beau last September and guy 2 to my right is playing $320 across, but not playing the PL nor the point. I was slightly down, playing PL with odds (mostly 4 or 5x) and Inside bets (Beau has vig AFTER the win on the Buy 5/9 and 4/10, making it a 2% and 1.67% HE bet). He was holding his own, while I was slightly down, due to no one making points, but they were throwing inside numbers.
Shooter is the guy between us. He lights it up. Sets a point, makes the point. Does it again. I swear, he made 4 points on about 12 total throws. The guy playing $320 across has not gotten paid once, since he is not playing the point! By the 4th point I decided to start putting down the full 10x odds. He made 8 or 9 points in total. I made out pretty well. The Across bettor got killed, but only because he was not playing the point at all. If he had been, he would have made out good too.

I think we get too hung up on the math of the game, and lose sight of the fact that it matters less what you are betting on, and more about whether or not your bet is getting paid.

I now declare it open season on Raleigh. begin firing at will. ;-)
==========================================================================

First crack here in my travels.
BUT, I contend that Place/Buy bets do not give up that much in the short term session that will be my lifetime rolls in craps.
Really? I say you are wrong.
Unless you only make about 100 lifetime bets.
Make more and you will find yourself in a hole more times than not.
This is easily proved by simulations.

Play Craps in WinCraps, it keeps the stats for you, and you will see a BIG difference just after 100 bets.
Make sure you make the same average bets while making different bets otherwise your efforts will be laughed at.

I understand I am giving up some small house edge by making a place bet
No, You do not understand what house edge is.
It is the short change payoff you get for making a bet.

a $600 place6 pays only $700
$600 odds on the come6 pays $720
$20 more.
over 1000 lifetime bets (easily done in a lifetime) the odds bettor wins $9,091 more than the same place6 bettor.
just for the place6 bet. Most make the place8 and come8 bets too.
You keep digging the hole you are in deeper making high house edge bets the more you make them.

This should be the concept most need to fully understand but do not.
You can do the math for other bets and number of bets made.
No one will stop you.

I think we get too hung up on the math of the game,
and lose sight of the fact that it matters less what you are betting on, and more about whether or not your bet is getting paid.

Sure, if you make less than 100 lifetime bets.

No one here is in that boat any more.

Gambling is about fun, but most want to win too. Me three.
But bankroll, bet size and making the bets that pay the most and lose the least over time is the best way to go and gives one the most fun because winning the most or losing the least is the most fun.
Higher house edge bets take away from that fun. They have their moments, but after 100 bets or so,
they start a good downhill slide that only a few lucky ones can ever hope to stop or overcome.

How about showing some math of your playing style.
We can then compare it to other players style of play.
Sounds fair.
Everyone should know I do not go much for place bets.
We can compare my lifetime of play (pass/come AND don't pass and DC)
vs. yours with place bets and whatever else you come up with.


Enjoy
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard 
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August 1st, 2012 at 11:14:16 PM permalink
It doesn't matter whether you win or lose, but whether or not you had a good bet. (see my tagline)
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
P90
P90
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August 1st, 2012 at 11:39:14 PM permalink
Typical long-termer thinking. All the cool kids play short term. It's not how many rounds you play; it's whether you only count winning sessions!
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guido111
guido111
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August 2nd, 2012 at 12:00:41 AM permalink
Quote: P90

Typical long-termer thinking. All the cool kids play short term. It's not how many rounds you play; it's whether you only count winning sessions!

10 short sessions always turn into one long term session.
It is what the Wizard has always tried to get across.
I know the truth to the Wizards beliefs.

added;
If one makes 10 bets in a session and plays 100 sessions

that is the same as playing one session with 1000 bets

and that is the same as playing 20 sessions with 50 bets per session and that is the same as playing

1000 sessions and making just one bet per session.

The average results will be the same for each ... per dollar bet.
guido111
guido111
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August 2nd, 2012 at 12:01:17 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

It doesn't matter whether you win or lose, but whether or not you had a good bet. (see my tagline)

And there are many good bets at a Craps table to be made.
There are 4 very good line bets that make it possible to make a 0% edge bet.
That is way better than all the rest of the bets on the layout.

One can also get creative.
Just stay away from the Pass and Don't Pass at the same time

How about comparing 2 good bets and anyone can choose between the two if one is better than the other.
parameters
900 total bets
average wager: $30
total action: $27,000


900 place6 and or place8 any combo will do just fine. Be creative I say.
$30 bets
wins $35
I can show the math later when I have more time.
(also, this assumes one has the bankroll to make 900 bets and survive the possible downswings)

net loss -14727.27273
net wins 14318.18182
net -409.0909091
One would only need about 6 more wins to show a profit.
The Place6 bettor would have about a 33.4% chance of winning at least $40 over those 900 bets.
Average win of $217

Now consider
The pass line only player making 900 pass line bets

or the even the pass/come player making 900 bets.
makes no difference.

The flat bet would be $10 and always taking 3X odds.
This makes for a $30 average bet, the same as the place bettor.
There is more math involved here since there are different points to consider
and the fact the pass/come does resolve 1/3 of the time on each come out roll winning or losing just $10.

net loss --15254.54545 (larger loss than the place bettor)
net wins 15127.27273
net -127.2727273

The best place bets can not do better on average than just pass and or come bets with odds.
The pass/come bettor has almost a 46% chance of being even or ahead after 900 bets...
way higher than the 33% chance the Place6 bettor has.

That just means the place bettor has more work to do to show a profit.
I will not tell the average wins for the pass/come bettor so I do not make the $217 average win for the place look bad.

Compare if you feel you have too

How about comparing the every roll hardway bettor vs the every roll horn/horn high bettor
maybe that later.

Unless you think the math of Craps is just useless wanderings and has no place in reality at a real craps table.

There are times I make place bets and come bets at the same time.
Hey another style to put math on.

Enjoy
teddys
teddys
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August 2nd, 2012 at 5:20:52 AM permalink
I don't think there's any question. Raleigh knows what's up. He's willing to pay the extra cost to have more fun (?) sessions. The vig-after-win 4,10,5, and 9 are not the worst bets on the table. It's accepted that the best method of play is P/DP+odds, but it doesn't mean you HAVE to play that way.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
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August 2nd, 2012 at 11:47:27 AM permalink
To all. I will be happy to discuss Place/Buy betting vs Come betting, and why I mostly prefer the former over the latter. However, I will be doing it the adult way. Call me stupid, take an insulting tone, etc. and I will not be responding to you. Don't mistake it that I have no response to what you wrote. Instead, take it as "Only a fool will try to converse with an Idiot, and I am not a fool." I know the math does not support me, but I do not have enough math background to be able to accurately figure out how much I am really giving away. Many of you do have that knowledge, and hopefully this discussion will put it in terms that others like me will be able to better understand. Thanks for keeping this thread civil.

Don't get me wrong. I am not saying Place/Buy betting is better than Come Bets. I am saying that it is another way to play that while costing the player higher expected losses, can also result in a higher win, in a shorter amount of rolls (or time).

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote: guido111

This needs its own thread.

I understand I am giving up some small house edge by making a place bet
No, You do not understand what house edge is.
It is the short change payoff you get for making a bet.



The HE is 1.414% on a Pass Line or CB. If you take odds, then it effectively lowers the HE to .7% and below, for total amount bet on the PL&CB. How much it lowers it is dependent on how many odds the bettor takes. The Place 6 has a fixed HE of 1.52%. Since it is higher, every dollar wagered on the Place 6 costs the bettor more money (higher loss) then they would have experienced with a CB and odds on the 6 point. - If this is correct, then I do understand house edge. If this is not correct, then please try to explain where I have it wrong.

Staying with this for a second, I should be able to calculate that for every $1000 I wager on the place 6, I am expected to lose $15.20, whereas on the CB only, I would expect to lose $14.14, or if I was taking odds, I would lose somewhere in the $4-$7 range, depending on how many odds are taken. $1000 total wagered on the place 6 is definitely within the realm of a single session of craps, even if I only bet $30 at a time on the place 6. BUT, if I have done the math right, that is only costing me $1 to $10 due to playing bets with a higher HE advantage for the whole session! If I am going to sweat that amount, I have no business at the craps table to begin with.

Quote: guido111


a $600 place6 pays only $700
$600 odds on the come6 pays $720
$20 more.
over 1000 lifetime bets (easily done in a lifetime) the odds bettor wins $9,091 more than the same place6 bettor.
just for the place6 bet. Most make the place8 and come8 bets too.
You keep digging the hole you are in deeper making high house edge bets the more you make them.




>> You can't make an odds only bet, so your example is not complete, and misrepresents the differential. It is not $20. You are only going to get paid 1:1 on the base CB amount, whereas the place or buy bet is going to get (1.x):1 on the whole amount. That needs to be accounted for to determine the differential. I provide my math below. I am interested in seeing the math as to how you arrived at the $9,091 figure for 1000 bets. What size bets?

From your example above, to have $600 odds bet, you would need to have a $120 Passline bet in most casinos (3-4-5x).
So you have $720 total wagered, and will get paid $840 total- $120 for base bet, and $720 for the odds.
Place 6 for $720 and how much do you get paid? $840
So, how much is the differential that the place bet cost me, vs the CB? ZERO. We both had $720 at risk of a 7 out, and we both got paid the same.
Yes, the CB has an advantage. When the $120 CB was made, for that first roll, the CB'r has an advantage and is likely to win the bet outright, but once that roll has passed, and the odds have been placed, the advantage is gone.


Here is where I am getting stuck:

I bet $100 on the CB , HE is 1.414%, therefore my expected loss is $1.41
I will add 5x odds ($500), but since there is no HE on the odds bet, my expected loss does not change. My total bet $600. Apparently though, this bet is actually in my favor, and somehow causes the 1.414% to become much less. On a 3-4-5x table I will now have an expected loss of $600 x .00374= $2.24 if I take max odds every time.
For the Place 6 bet, I put up $600 at a 1.52% HE, therefore my expected loss is $9.12.

So, the place bet is costing me a theoretical additional $7 in losses, even though, on the next roll of 7 out, we both lose $600.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I need to go back to the Wiz's explanation on why the free odds reduces the HE from 1.414%. I know there have been plenty of discussions on this topic in the past. It just seems weird that I can put up odds (a bet that has no edge for either party) yet it has the effect of lowering the 1.414% HE on the CB to much less than 1.414%
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
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August 2nd, 2012 at 11:56:39 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

It doesn't matter whether you win or lose, but whether or not you had a good bet. (see my tagline)



But ultimately, isn't it about winning, within a specific time frame?
When I am playing a casino game, the math say I have no chance of winning long term, so I am always playing from a short term perspective.

So does it really matter whether I place a bet with a 1.414% HE or I play a bet with 1.52% HE? Certainly the lower HE bet is the 'smartest' bet, but what if I have more fun playing the bet with a slightly higher HE? What if that bet means I have a better chance to win more money in a shorter time frame, or in less rolls in craps?

Does that still make it a bad bet?
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
guido111
guido111
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August 2nd, 2012 at 12:11:17 PM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

But ultimately, isn't it about winning, within a specific time frame?

You and many other keep missing the point.
It is NOT all about how much you WIN.
(this is still important because the same amount bet can win less from one bet to another because of the house edge)

It is also about how much you LOSE.

Add thise two together and the truth will set you free.

The specific time frame of the length of a session is meaningless.

Because 100 sessions making 10 bets is the same as making
1 bet in 1000 sessions.

You have shown in the past you favor only the math that benefits you and your ideas,
I will not show the many posts where you agreed with tuttigum on his selective cherry picking and no math examples...
in the famous Hoax Thread.

(You can thank me later.)

Your statement "the math say I have no chance of winning long term"
IS absolutely a FALSE statement.
You love making lots of them.

The math says NOTHING about that.

What it says, is the longer you play against a house edge game, the less chances one has to being even or ahead.
I can prove this with math and simulations.

That is because NO HUMAN can make 12 Billion bets in his lifetime. That is way longer term than 20,000 and most players in there lifetime can easily make 20,000 bets and still have a chance to WIN in the end.

each session does not have to be 20,000 bets.
1,000 sessions of 20 bets each will do just fine.
They are one and the same.
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
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August 2nd, 2012 at 1:32:36 PM permalink
Quote: guido111

You and many other keep missing the point.
It is NOT all about how much you WIN.
(this is still important because the same amount bet can win less from one bet to another because of the house edge)

It is also about how much you LOSE.

Add thise two together and the truth will set you free.

The specific time frame of the length of a session is meaningless.

Because 100 sessions making 10 bets is the same as making
1 bet in 1000 sessions.


I agree, that in the end it is all one big session. At this point though, I have no idea how many sessions I will be lucky enough to play. And I do keep track of my short term results, not just the wins, but the losses too. I have no desire to fool myself into thinking I have a way to beat craps.

Quote: guido111


You have shown in the past you favor only the math that benefits you and your ideas,
I will not show the many posts where you agreed with tuttigum on his selective cherry picking and no math examples...
in the famous Hoax Thread.

(You can thank me later.)


I will thank you now. :-)
I have never intentionally presented only math that favors my argument. I admittedly have made mistakes in what I presented, but to imply that is intentional is assuming too much. Since we are assuming things, I accept your apology :-)

I have already admitted I cannot do the math to show how much it theoretically costs me to place bet vs come bet. And yes, it is theoretical. Why? Because, I should lose $1.41 for every $100 I wager on the pass line, or on a CB, but that is not the result I have to date. And I will bet when my craps days are over, I will not be at $1.41 per $100 wagered on Pass line results. So, this expected loss is something I can use to compare various bets, but it is not likely to be MY end result.

I did not support tuttigum's position in the hoax thread. I do rail against people who claim place bets are terrible bets, and so I would have presented in that context.


Quote: guido111



Your statement "the math say I have no chance of winning long term"
IS absolutely a FALSE statement.
You love making lots of them.

The math says NOTHING about that.

What it says, is the longer you play against a house edge game, the less chances one has to being even or ahead.
I can prove this with math and simulations.

That is because NO HUMAN can make 12 Billion bets in his lifetime. That is way longer term than 20,000 and most players in there lifetime can easily make 20,000 bets and still have a chance to WIN in the end.

each session does not have to be 20,000 bets.
1,000 sessions of 20 bets each will do just fine.
They are one and the same.



Again, you are making a very BAD assumption. I do not love making FALSE statements. I may make a statement that is later shown to be wrong, but when I made the statement, I thought it was accurate. I have a good life and do not need to troll.

I will plead guilty to a bad choice of wording on my statement above. You have worded it much better, "the longer you play against a house edge game, the less chances one has to being even or ahead."

In my previous post, I have math about your $600 example. I would like to see your response to my math, and where I am going wrong.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!

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