Craps Math is not important - lets have at it

This needs its own thread.

From:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/10806-how-many-come-bets-are-optimal/
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RaleighCraps says...


All of my internal being is screaming, "Do not post", but I will not heed.......

First, I agree that from a pure mathematical standpoint, PL and CB has the lowest house edge (ignoring Don't Play).

BUT, I contend that Place/Buy bets do not give up that much in the short term session that will be my lifetime rolls in craps.

Ultimately, what really determines the outcome of my next craps session (two of them this Friday) will be whether or not the shooters hit the numbers I am playing! Whether they are CB, PL, Buy, or Place is really irrelevant.

I understand I am giving up some small house edge by making a place bet, but so what if the shooter rolls my Place 9. I have played on tables where the Place bettors and the CB got killed, while the guy next to me played the stupid Horn High Yo, and Horn High 3 every roll for $5 to $25 and tripled his buy in! Arguably the worst bets on the table, but the horn numbers were coming out way above what the math dictates, so he cleaned up. Try and tell him that was really stupid betting.
I am sure he gets his butt kicked if he plays that way all the time, but 'perhaps' he is a trend player, and decided he was seeing too many horn numbers, so he 'played the trend'. Who knows. All I know is he was a winner, and the rest of us playing by the math, got smoked.

I was playing at the Beau last September and guy 2 to my right is playing $320 across, but not playing the PL nor the point. I was slightly down, playing PL with odds (mostly 4 or 5x) and Inside bets (Beau has vig AFTER the win on the Buy 5/9 and 4/10, making it a 2% and 1.67% HE bet). He was holding his own, while I was slightly down, due to no one making points, but they were throwing inside numbers.
Shooter is the guy between us. He lights it up. Sets a point, makes the point. Does it again. I swear, he made 4 points on about 12 total throws. The guy playing $320 across has not gotten paid once, since he is not playing the point! By the 4th point I decided to start putting down the full 10x odds. He made 8 or 9 points in total. I made out pretty well. The Across bettor got killed, but only because he was not playing the point at all. If he had been, he would have made out good too.

I think we get too hung up on the math of the game, and lose sight of the fact that it matters less what you are betting on, and more about whether or not your bet is getting paid.

I now declare it open season on Raleigh. begin firing at will. ;-)
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First crack here in my travels.
BUT, I contend that Place/Buy bets do not give up that much in the short term session that will be my lifetime rolls in craps.
Really? I say you are wrong.
Unless you only make about 100 lifetime bets.
Make more and you will find yourself in a hole more times than not.
This is easily proved by simulations.

Play Craps in WinCraps, it keeps the stats for you, and you will see a BIG difference just after 100 bets.
Make sure you make the same average bets while making different bets otherwise your efforts will be laughed at.

I understand I am giving up some small house edge by making a place bet
No, You do not understand what house edge is.
It is the short change payoff you get for making a bet.

a $600 place6 pays only $700
$600 odds on the come6 pays $720
$20 more.
over 1000 lifetime bets (easily done in a lifetime) the odds bettor wins $9,091 more than the same place6 bettor.
just for the place6 bet. Most make the place8 and come8 bets too.
You keep digging the hole you are in deeper making high house edge bets the more you make them.

This should be the concept most need to fully understand but do not.
You can do the math for other bets and number of bets made.
No one will stop you.

I think we get too hung up on the math of the game,
and lose sight of the fact that it matters less what you are betting on, and more about whether or not your bet is getting paid.
Sure, if you make less than 100 lifetime bets.

No one here is in that boat any more.

Gambling is about fun, but most want to win too. Me three.
But bankroll, bet size and making the bets that pay the most and lose the least over time is the best way to go and gives one the most fun because winning the most or losing the least is the most fun.
Higher house edge bets take away from that fun. They have their moments, but after 100 bets or so,
they start a good downhill slide that only a few lucky ones can ever hope to stop or overcome.

How about showing some math of your playing style.
We can then compare it to other players style of play.
Sounds fair.
Everyone should know I do not go much for place bets.
We can compare my lifetime of play (pass/come AND don't pass and DC)
vs. yours with place bets and whatever else you come up with.


Enjoy

It doesn't matter whether you win or lose, but whether or not you had a good bet. (see my tagline)

Typical long-termer thinking. All the cool kids play short term. It's not how many rounds you play; it's whether you only count winning sessions!

Quote: P90

Typical long-termer thinking. All the cool kids play short term. It's not how many rounds you play; it's whether you only count winning sessions!

10 short sessions always turn into one long term session.
It is what the Wizard has always tried to get across.
I know the truth to the Wizards beliefs.

added;
If one makes 10 bets in a session and plays 100 sessions

that is the same as playing one session with 1000 bets

and that is the same as playing 20 sessions with 50 bets per session and that is the same as playing

1000 sessions and making just one bet per session.

The average results will be the same for each ... per dollar bet.

Quote: Wizard

It doesn't matter whether you win or lose, but whether or not you had a good bet. (see my tagline)

And there are many good bets at a Craps table to be made.
There are 4 very good line bets that make it possible to make a 0% edge bet.
That is way better than all the rest of the bets on the layout.

One can also get creative.
Just stay away from the Pass and Don't Pass at the same time

How about comparing 2 good bets and anyone can choose between the two if one is better than the other.
parameters
900 total bets
average wager: $30
total action: $27,000


900 place6 and or place8 any combo will do just fine. Be creative I say.
$30 bets
wins $35
I can show the math later when I have more time.
(also, this assumes one has the bankroll to make 900 bets and survive the possible downswings)

net loss -14727.27273
net wins 14318.18182
net -409.0909091
One would only need about 6 more wins to show a profit.
The Place6 bettor would have about a 33.4% chance of winning at least $40 over those 900 bets.
Average win of $217

Now consider
The pass line only player making 900 pass line bets

or the even the pass/come player making 900 bets.
makes no difference.

The flat bet would be $10 and always taking 3X odds.
This makes for a $30 average bet, the same as the place bettor.
There is more math involved here since there are different points to consider
and the fact the pass/come does resolve 1/3 of the time on each come out roll winning or losing just $10.

net loss --15254.54545 (larger loss than the place bettor)
net wins 15127.27273
net -127.2727273

The best place bets can not do better on average than just pass and or come bets with odds.
The pass/come bettor has almost a 46% chance of being even or ahead after 900 bets...
way higher than the 33% chance the Place6 bettor has.

That just means the place bettor has more work to do to show a profit.
I will not tell the average wins for the pass/come bettor so I do not make the $217 average win for the place look bad.

Compare if you feel you have too

How about comparing the every roll hardway bettor vs the every roll horn/horn high bettor
maybe that later.

Unless you think the math of Craps is just useless wanderings and has no place in reality at a real craps table.

There are times I make place bets and come bets at the same time.
Hey another style to put math on.

Enjoy

I don't think there's any question. Raleigh knows what's up. He's willing to pay the extra cost to have more fun (?) sessions. The vig-after-win 4,10,5, and 9 are not the worst bets on the table. It's accepted that the best method of play is P/DP+odds, but it doesn't mean you HAVE to play that way.

To all. I will be happy to discuss Place/Buy betting vs Come betting, and why I mostly prefer the former over the latter. However, I will be doing it the adult way. Call me stupid, take an insulting tone, etc. and I will not be responding to you. Don't mistake it that I have no response to what you wrote. Instead, take it as "Only a fool will try to converse with an Idiot, and I am not a fool." I know the math does not support me, but I do not have enough math background to be able to accurately figure out how much I am really giving away. Many of you do have that knowledge, and hopefully this discussion will put it in terms that others like me will be able to better understand. Thanks for keeping this thread civil.

Don't get me wrong. I am not saying Place/Buy betting is better than Come Bets. I am saying that it is another way to play that while costing the player higher expected losses, can also result in a higher win, in a shorter amount of rolls (or time).

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Quote: guido111

This needs its own thread.

I understand I am giving up some small house edge by making a place bet
No, You do not understand what house edge is.
It is the short change payoff you get for making a bet.

The HE is 1.414% on a Pass Line or CB. If you take odds, then it effectively lowers the HE to .7% and below, for total amount bet on the PL&CB. How much it lowers it is dependent on how many odds the bettor takes. The Place 6 has a fixed HE of 1.52%. Since it is higher, every dollar wagered on the Place 6 costs the bettor more money (higher loss) then they would have experienced with a CB and odds on the 6 point. - If this is correct, then I do understand house edge. If this is not correct, then please try to explain where I have it wrong.

Staying with this for a second, I should be able to calculate that for every $1000 I wager on the place 6, I am expected to lose $15.20, whereas on the CB only, I would expect to lose $14.14, or if I was taking odds, I would lose somewhere in the $4-$7 range, depending on how many odds are taken. $1000 total wagered on the place 6 is definitely within the realm of a single session of craps, even if I only bet $30 at a time on the place 6. BUT, if I have done the math right, that is only costing me $1 to $10 due to playing bets with a higher HE advantage for the whole session! If I am going to sweat that amount, I have no business at the craps table to begin with.

Quote: guido111

a $600 place6 pays only $700
$600 odds on the come6 pays $720
$20 more.
over 1000 lifetime bets (easily done in a lifetime) the odds bettor wins $9,091 more than the same place6 bettor.
just for the place6 bet. Most make the place8 and come8 bets too.
You keep digging the hole you are in deeper making high house edge bets the more you make them.

>> You can't make an odds only bet, so your example is not complete, and misrepresents the differential. It is not $20. You are only going to get paid 1:1 on the base CB amount, whereas the place or buy bet is going to get (1.x):1 on the whole amount. That needs to be accounted for to determine the differential. I provide my math below. I am interested in seeing the math as to how you arrived at the $9,091 figure for 1000 bets. What size bets?

From your example above, to have $600 odds bet, you would need to have a $120 Passline bet in most casinos (3-4-5x).
So you have $720 total wagered, and will get paid $840 total- $120 for base bet, and $720 for the odds.
Place 6 for $720 and how much do you get paid? $840
So, how much is the differential that the place bet cost me, vs the CB? ZERO. We both had $720 at risk of a 7 out, and we both got paid the same.
Yes, the CB has an advantage. When the $120 CB was made, for that first roll, the CB'r has an advantage and is likely to win the bet outright, but once that roll has passed, and the odds have been placed, the advantage is gone.


Here is where I am getting stuck:

I bet $100 on the CB , HE is 1.414%, therefore my expected loss is $1.41
I will add 5x odds ($500), but since there is no HE on the odds bet, my expected loss does not change. My total bet $600. Apparently though, this bet is actually in my favor, and somehow causes the 1.414% to become much less. On a 3-4-5x table I will now have an expected loss of $600 x .00374= $2.24 if I take max odds every time.
For the Place 6 bet, I put up $600 at a 1.52% HE, therefore my expected loss is $9.12.

So, the place bet is costing me a theoretical additional $7 in losses, even though, on the next roll of 7 out, we both lose $600.
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I need to go back to the Wiz's explanation on why the free odds reduces the HE from 1.414%. I know there have been plenty of discussions on this topic in the past. It just seems weird that I can put up odds (a bet that has no edge for either party) yet it has the effect of lowering the 1.414% HE on the CB to much less than 1.414%

Quote: Wizard

It doesn't matter whether you win or lose, but whether or not you had a good bet. (see my tagline)

But ultimately, isn't it about winning, within a specific time frame?
When I am playing a casino game, the math say I have no chance of winning long term, so I am always playing from a short term perspective.

So does it really matter whether I place a bet with a 1.414% HE or I play a bet with 1.52% HE? Certainly the lower HE bet is the 'smartest' bet, but what if I have more fun playing the bet with a slightly higher HE? What if that bet means I have a better chance to win more money in a shorter time frame, or in less rolls in craps?

Does that still make it a bad bet?

Quote: RaleighCraps

But ultimately, isn't it about winning, within a specific time frame?

You and many other keep missing the point.
It is NOT all about how much you WIN.
(this is still important because the same amount bet can win less from one bet to another because of the house edge)

It is also about how much you LOSE.

Add thise two together and the truth will set you free.

The specific time frame of the length of a session is meaningless.

Because 100 sessions making 10 bets is the same as making
1 bet in 1000 sessions.

You have shown in the past you favor only the math that benefits you and your ideas,
I will not show the many posts where you agreed with tuttigum on his selective cherry picking and no math examples...
in the famous Hoax Thread.

(You can thank me later.)

Your statement "the math say I have no chance of winning long term"
IS absolutely a FALSE statement.
You love making lots of them.

The math says NOTHING about that.

What it says, is the longer you play against a house edge game, the less chances one has to being even or ahead.
I can prove this with math and simulations.

That is because NO HUMAN can make 12 Billion bets in his lifetime. That is way longer term than 20,000 and most players in there lifetime can easily make 20,000 bets and still have a chance to WIN in the end.

each session does not have to be 20,000 bets.
1,000 sessions of 20 bets each will do just fine.
They are one and the same.

Quote: guido111

You and many other keep missing the point.
It is NOT all about how much you WIN.
(this is still important because the same amount bet can win less from one bet to another because of the house edge)

It is also about how much you LOSE.

Add thise two together and the truth will set you free.

The specific time frame of the length of a session is meaningless.

Because 100 sessions making 10 bets is the same as making
1 bet in 1000 sessions.

I agree, that in the end it is all one big session. At this point though, I have no idea how many sessions I will be lucky enough to play. And I do keep track of my short term results, not just the wins, but the losses too. I have no desire to fool myself into thinking I have a way to beat craps.

Quote: guido111

You have shown in the past you favor only the math that benefits you and your ideas,
I will not show the many posts where you agreed with tuttigum on his selective cherry picking and no math examples...
in the famous Hoax Thread.

(You can thank me later.)

I will thank you now. :-)
I have never intentionally presented only math that favors my argument. I admittedly have made mistakes in what I presented, but to imply that is intentional is assuming too much. Since we are assuming things, I accept your apology :-)

I have already admitted I cannot do the math to show how much it theoretically costs me to place bet vs come bet. And yes, it is theoretical. Why? Because, I should lose $1.41 for every $100 I wager on the pass line, or on a CB, but that is not the result I have to date. And I will bet when my craps days are over, I will not be at $1.41 per $100 wagered on Pass line results. So, this expected loss is something I can use to compare various bets, but it is not likely to be MY end result.

I did not support tuttigum's position in the hoax thread. I do rail against people who claim place bets are terrible bets, and so I would have presented in that context.

Quote: guido111

Your statement "the math say I have no chance of winning long term"
IS absolutely a FALSE statement.
You love making lots of them.

The math says NOTHING about that.

What it says, is the longer you play against a house edge game, the less chances one has to being even or ahead.
I can prove this with math and simulations.

That is because NO HUMAN can make 12 Billion bets in his lifetime. That is way longer term than 20,000 and most players in there lifetime can easily make 20,000 bets and still have a chance to WIN in the end.

each session does not have to be 20,000 bets.
1,000 sessions of 20 bets each will do just fine.
They are one and the same.

Again, you are making a very BAD assumption. I do not love making FALSE statements. I may make a statement that is later shown to be wrong, but when I made the statement, I thought it was accurate. I have a good life and do not need to troll.

I will plead guilty to a bad choice of wording on my statement above. You have worded it much better, "the longer you play against a house edge game, the less chances one has to being even or ahead."

In my previous post, I have math about your $600 example. I would like to see your response to my math, and where I am going wrong.

Quote: guido111

each session does not have to be 20,000 bets.
1,000 sessions of 20 bets each will do just fine.
They are one and the same.

But it is all about sessions for me. I think this is the smartest thing when it's negative expectation. Certainly when playing any game where the house edge is 2% or more. Like the clever baseball player said after a game where they got clobbered, "OK but when we go out on the field for the next game the scoreboard is going to say Nothing to Nothing is the score".

What about Craps you say? Yep, a person has a chance at lower than 1% HE to be ahead in a lifetime. Like most of us, though, the reality for me is that my lifetime losses don't seem to be reflecting that. It's only since 2005 for me and only a few thousand dollars, but I have kept track of it. You know what? I am not going to chase those losses. I am going to figure I am never going to get that money back. What is going to happen instead is I am going to place my bets and I am going to say, maybe on this session I'll kill 'em. But hold a gun to my head and I am going to admit the best thing is to be surprised if I win. Absolutely the best attitude.

removed
silly

Sally

Quote: odiousgambit

What about Craps you say?
Yep, a person has a chance at lower than 1% HE to be ahead in a lifetime.
Like most of us, though, the reality for me is that my lifetime losses don't seem to be reflecting that.

And they will not.
See my above post.
Those that only consider EV (expected value) or their expected loss will always feel bad about their playing session results.

One needs to place as much value on standard deviation as one does with EV over a finite number of bets.
That is reality

Sally

Quote: mustangsally

You are not at all asking about or considering the "variance" of the bet and the usable value of standard deviation. (they are related)
.
.
.
But you should not leave out the variance (standard deviation) in your comparisons of bets as does 99.99999& of people do.
There is no true picture by looking at expected value alone.

ev and sd work together
Tells a way better story of any bet other than just ev

And you can easily estimate the number of bets you can make over the rest of your life.
You do not have to be exact there.
The bets do not all have to be equal.
Just figure the average bet by it's probability.
Now figure on how many hours and the number of rolls per hour and simple math will start you in the right direction.

Sally

There is no true picture by looking at expected value alone.

That may be the gem of understanding I have been looking for.

But wouldn't EV and SD of a comparison of Come Bets vs Place Bets just keep the same relationship as the EV itself?

If I put the EV and SD comparison of my lifetime of expected Come bets against the EV and SD of my lifetime of expected Place bets (and assume I end up wagering the same total amount), I would expect there to be a tremendous amount of overlap between -1 SD and +1 SD on the two graphs. And anything that falls in that overlap would mean that it really didn't matter which bets I took to get me there, right? Sure, the higher HE bet means my max -1 SD is a greater loss than the lower HE bet, and my loss at -2 or -3 deviations could be catastrophic, but my most likely outcome is somewhere in the 1 SD range.

Did I make any sense?
SD and variance is a topic for which I vaguely understand the concept, but trying to apply it gets me into trouble.

removed
silly

Sally

Wizard I have a lot of respect for you, and I have a lot of respect for the "best bets" but I can't pay my bills or keep playing with the "good bets." I have to win. Only winners pay the bills and get to keep playing.

Now, with that said, the reality is that if you make the so-called "crazy crapper bets" too many times you will lose.

But at the same time I have seen many "come bet players" who quickly were wiped out because they continually bet two or three come bets with full odds and never saw a repeater and their "good bets" with the "lowest possible house advantage" just didn't pay off.

Craps is one of those games where you can't play strictly by the math. There is too much luck involved. Luck doesn't respect the math.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Wizard I have a lot of respect for you, and I have a lot of respect for the "best bets" but I can't pay my bills or keep playing with the "good bets." I have to win. Only winners pay the bills and get to keep playing.

Now, with that said, the reality is that if you make the so-called "crazy crapper bets" too many times you will lose.

But at the same time I have seen many "come bet players" who quickly were wiped out because they continually bet two or three come bets with full odds and never saw a repeater and their "good bets" with the "lowest possible house advantage" just didn't pay off.

Craps is one of those games where you can't play strictly by the math. There is too much luck involved. Luck doesn't respect the math.

Of course more often than not the best bets on craps will lose. That's because the casino has an advantage on all the bets, save the odds bets, which to earn the right to play you have to make a bet in which the casino has the edge! If you say "I have to win" then you should NEVER play craps. You are always making a bet you are more likely to lose, or risking too much money for the potential win. Saying "Luck doesn't respect the math" is meaningless. Of course any bet you make, whether it is one which you have anadvantage or not, can either win or lose depending on luck. The "math" just tells you whcih bet gives you a better chance, not an undefeatable advantage.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Only winners pay the bills and get to keep playing.

If this is true for you, especially the bolded part, maybe you shouldn't be gambling right now.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Craps is one of those games where you can't play strictly by the math. There is too much luck involved. Luck doesn't respect the math.

That's nonsense. The probability mathematics is merely modelling the "luck".

Quote: RaleighCraps

but what if I have more fun playing the bet with a slightly higher HE?

You mean the Place6 & Place8.
By all means play them. Who is to rell you otherwise on how you are to have more fun...
unless you start to throw around untrue or incomplete statements about your bets VS. other bets.

Quote: RaleighCraps

What if that bet means I have a better chance to win more money in a shorter time frame,
or in less rolls in craps?

The Place6&8 wins MORE $$$ in a shorter time than what bets???

Certaintly NOT any line bet of EQUAL value and ACTION.
Line bets being a Don't pass, Pass, Come, Don't Come and the 0% House edge Odds bet.

You Place bettors are ALL the same.
Incomplete Statements, without any proof what-so-ever- claims.

Your Place6&8 in a short time frame wins more on average than Place 4,5,9 and 10 bets...
Hardways bets...
Horn Bets...
C&E bets...

Quote: RaleighCraps

Does that still make it a bad bet?

Again, you place bettors make every statement a 'weasel clause"
Be specific man!

Here you go.
Comment on this statement and use some math. I don't care if it is wrong.

The Place 6 & 8 IS a bad bet
because one can not combine it with ANY other Craps bet and have a combined bet lower than -1/66 house edge. Period.

Prove me wrong with your math or over a lifetime of your actual bets or your computer simulation results.

Step up, this is your time, not mine.

I could care less except for those incomplete and untrue statements, then I care more

So since you guys reject my philosophical approach to craps about winning, let's take a practical approach.

When you bet come bets with odds, the number has to repeat in order for you to win. The average shooter in craps throws the dice -- what is it -- five times? So that's:

1. come out
2. second roll
3. third roll
4. fourth roll
5. 7-out

Given that, what are the chances that you're not going to loss a lot of money with your low house edge come bets with odds?

I've seen players bet the pass, place the inside, and after roll #4 take down their place bets and take their chances only with the passline. I don't play that way but it seemed to me that strategy wasn't half bad.

Look -- come bettors with full odds have a field day on a long roll. And they live in purgatory in between the monsters.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Wizard I have a lot of respect for you, and I have a lot of respect for the "best bets" but I can't pay my bills or keep playing with the "good bets." I have to win. Only winners pay the bills and get to keep playing.

Now, with that said, the reality is that if you make the so-called "crazy crapper bets" too many times you will lose.

But at the same time I have seen many "come bet players" who quickly were wiped out because they continually bet two or three come bets with full odds and never saw a repeater and their "good bets" with the "lowest possible house advantage" just didn't pay off.

Craps is one of those games where you can't play strictly by the math. There is too much luck involved. Luck doesn't respect the math.

I have been playing Craps for over a decade in lot of places throughout the United States and other countries in the world; Everytime I have seen a person make over $10,000 (MANY TIMES)......there were not simply playing Pass Line/Odds with Come Bets/Odds. They were also not playing the "crazy hopper bets" all the time, they were not betting hardways on every single player but somehow/someway they had impeccable timing to make "crazy" bets at the right time and made lots of money.

Who could imagine a player shooting the Dice betting $25 on the Field, throwing more than 10 consecutive Field #'s and not collecting a single $1 until he picked up over $10,000? *The most consecutive Field #'s I have personally seen is 15 in a row*.

Who could imagine the same player (who turned $25 in the Field to over $10,000) starting with $200 and leaving with close to $20,000 on another roll parlaying hardways like they were going out of style?

I have played with this aforementioned shooter a few times, every time he gets the Dice...Pit Bosses and Suits start scrambling watching his every move....(Maybe He's just lucky...)

Who could imagine a player winning consistently in Craps for 10 years (Hardways ALL Day), then going through a 2 year RUT including losing 25+ consecutive craps sessions in a row? (Yours Truly)

Last week playing Craps in the Midwest, I took a lunch break during a COLD Craps streak only to come back and witness the last 15 minutes of 2 consecutive 5 Point Fire Bet Hits by consecutive shooters....

For the record...I have sent a lot of Come Bettors home BROKE ....you may want to bet a Crap Check when I am rolling those bones...

Craps is not simply about the Math, it's about trends, timing and most importantly LUCK!

As Penn said, "luck is probability taken personally." Some people win, some people lose. That's all it is. You'll see bigger wins with the "sucker bets" because they're longshots, but make no mistake, those wins are bought and paid for by the other players on those bets. There's no such thing as a "hot" or "cold" table or player except in retrospect, and trends are all in player's heads, kept alive by confirmation bias; "luck" can change at any time.

Quote: AlanMendelson

When you bet come bets with odds, the number has to repeat in order for you to win. The average shooter in craps throws the dice -- what is it -- five times? So that's:

1. come out
2. second roll
3. third roll
4. fourth roll
5. 7-out

Eight and a half times.

"But half a roll makes no sense!" I hear you say. Well, then this'll really bake your noodle: the average number rolled on a single die is three and a half. Modeling the "average" case like that is absurd, because it's just an abstraction to represent the aggregate.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Given that, what are the chances that you're not going to loss a lot of money with your low house edge come bets with odds?

The chance of coming out ahead overall is, for a short session, typically over 40%. The chance of not losing "a lot" of money is, as always, subjective.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I've seen players bet the pass, place the inside, and after roll #4 take down their place bets and take their chances only with the passline. I don't play that way but it seemed to me that strategy wasn't half bad.

Look -- come bettors with full odds have a field day on a long roll. And they live in purgatory in between the monsters.

So? Every strategy loses sometimes, and for every big win there's a long downturn. That's how casinos stay in business. The strategy you describe seems to be leaning lightly on the gambler's fallacy. It's a pretty bad strategy - same problem with the sevens.

Quote: AlanMendelson

So since you guys reject my philosophical approach to craps about winning, let's take a practical approach.

Practical approach is with you cherry picking a dice roll sequence.
One should use the math or simulations to prove the point.

What you, a famous TV guy, can't or will not do that???

Quote: AlanMendelson

When you bet come bets with odds, the number has to repeat in order for you to win.

This is an absolute FALSE statement.
When the odds are taken on a come point the number has to roll ONE time...JUST like the place bet.

You are one of those that say place bets, any, are bettor than any come bets.
So you tell incomplete statements and cherry pick a sequence of dice rolls to prove your point.

you are wrong and I am right.

Here you go.
I make a pass, you make a pass.
point is 5.
we both take odds.

You place the 6 & 8.
I make a come bet
Next roll, the most common number to roll, is a 7
and the roll is a 7.
You lose 3 bets

I lose one, with odds and win one outright!

Read this post
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/10812-craps-math-is-not-important-lets-have-at-it/#post169059

900 place bets vs 900 come bets.

same average bet, same total action, handle!
Come bets lose less than place bets, win more than place bets, when they are compared equally.
(BTW that was NOT my post, but I also verified the numbers also.
I choose to not show the math since this forum has too many people that do not understand it, and will say it is just wrong by their thinking.)

Too bad you choose to compare them not equally.
Oh, you do not like that.
Sue me then!

Prove it wrong TV guy!

Does it matter that I earn a living from TV? If it does, I won't participate in the discussion. This is getting too emotional for an Internet discussion about craps. Carry on.

Quote: CrapsForever

I have been playing Craps for over a decade in lot of places throughout the United States and other countries in the world;
Everytime I have seen a person make over $10,000 (MANY TIMES)......there were not simply playing Pass Line/Odds with Come Bets/Odds.
They were also not playing the "crazy hopper bets" all the time, they were not betting hardways on every single player but somehow/someway they had impeccable timing to make "crazy" bets at the right time and made lots of money.

I got you beat. Been playing Craps for over 30 years and have 20 years dealing the game in Nevada casinos.

You are being fooled by short term session results.
Deal the game for 8 hours every day for 20 years.
I have seen it all.

The ones that made the most money were line bettors on a hot table and a cold table.
There were the place and prop players that had large wins, they were about in the 10% bracket.



Timing has NOTHING to do with winning.
Making bets has everything to do with winning.

I had a friend who kept 64 across, $160 across and was getting killed.
I played the pass only with a few come bets and place bets, then a few don't bets.
I stayed even
He busted out and went to play Blackjack.

2 shooters later, out of a COLD table. a skinny 21 y/o had a 25 roll hand.
The lady after him, 26!
It was great!
We all kicked ass,
all pass/come and place bettors. Well, the ones that still had money left over.
There were not many horns or hardways.
Even a run of 8 fields in a row.

Too many Craps players over-bet easily their bankroll then exclaim to the world the table was too cold for them to win.
Truth was they busted out too early and MISSED the good rolls that always come.


Be consistent in the bets you make. Play within your bankroll with your bet sizes.
It will pay off in larger wins when you do win or smaller losses when you do lose.
And stop playing scared!

Quote: AlanMendelson

Does it matter that I earn a living from TV? If it does, I won't participate in the discussion. This is getting too emotional for an Internet discussion about craps. Carry on.

By you cherry picking a dice roll sequence to make a come bettor look bad,
What is FAIR about that?
Why not show both side as you do as a reporter on TV? You do good work there. Not here, IMO.

just as I did to make the place bettor look as bad, you are showing to me that you think you are better than the rest of us.
That is too bad.

The fact is you ARE a TV guy.
I watched you on TV many times.

Take it and run.
Playing scared is never a good way to play Craps.

Show some math in your future posts. I have yet to see any.


cherry pick some more dice sequences that only make come bets look bad.


Hey all, No emotion in my posts.
I can care less.
I block all your posts and I see no more untrue or incomplete and misleading statements on how a come bet wins only by a number rolling twice.
Absolute untruth.

For a good forum discussion see Alan's website instead.

Good Luck !!

Quote: 7craps

I got you beat. Been playing Craps for over 30 years and have 20 years dealing the game in Nevada casinos.

You are being fooled by short term session results.
Deal the game for 8 hours every day for 20 years.
I have seen it all.

What about the player (Who I met) who personally destroyed Harringtons All, Tall, Small Bet by making DAILY ($4,000 - $6,000) PROFIT withdrawals from the Casino for MONTHS playing an average of 2 hours a day?

He took so much money from them; they took the bet out of the Casino....

The Math says the All, Tall, Small Bet is BAD, his pockets told me otherwise....(for him)...

I'd be willing to bet that you're getting an exaggerated picture of the consistency of his wins - I don't doubt he had a hell of a good two months, but I don't believe for a second he made a profit every single day in them, and in general, the people who consistently make sucker bets like that have given more to the casino building fund than those who make sounder ones. A bad bet doesn't mean there aren't the occasional big winners, and again, longshot bets (like all, tall, and small) make for dramatic extremes; people win the state lottery, even multiple times, but even you aren't going to tell me that's a good bet, are you?

Quote: 24Bingo

I'd be willing to bet that you're getting an exaggerated picture of the consistency of his wins - I don't doubt he had a hell of a good two months, but I don't believe for a second he made a profit every single day in them, and in general, the people who consistently make sucker bets like that have given more to the casino building fund than those who make sounder ones. A bad bet doesn't mean there aren't the occasional big winners, and again, longshot bets (like all, tall, and small) make for dramatic extremes; people win the state lottery, even multiple times, but even you aren't going to tell me that's a good bet, are you?

Several DEALERS that worked there confirmed this to me.....why would they be lying?

I visited Harrington Casino in Delaware in earlier this year...saw they changed the minimum bet of the All, Tall, Small Bet to a minimum of $5. I asked why.....I was told that guy (Dealer pointed at Specific shooter) was KILLING the Casino everyday by betting big on the All, Tall, Small Bet and winning most of the time. I spoke to the shooter, he confirmed...."I am KILLING them". I spoke to two other dealers....they confirmed...."He is KILLING us"

I played there a couple of days....everybody "focused" on hitting the All, Tall, Small Bet...nobody cared about making points.....I won the Tall bet outright once and layed the final point on the Tall Bet once. It was weird playing it because everyone was intense and cared only about winning the All, Tall, Small Bet.

I called two weeks later when I was going to make a trip back to Delaware.....was told by the Craps Pit...."No More All, Tall, Small Bet"... I asked why...I was told "we are losing too much money on the bet.... this one guy is making us his personal piggy bank"

Call them to confirm.

Quote: CrapsForever

What about the player (Who I met) who personally destroyed Harringtons All, Tall, Small Bet by making DAILY ($4,000 - $6,000) PROFIT withdrawals from the Casino for MONTHS playing an average of 2 hours a day?

He took so much money from them; they took the bet out of the Casino....

The Math says the All, Tall, Small Bet is BAD, his pockets told me otherwise....(for him)...

Good for him.
personally destroyed
What exactly does that mean and where is the documentation on it.

The lady that rolled 154 rolls in her hand has documentation.
I place more value in that than your statements.
But that is just me and my opinion.

The math NEVER says one can never win.
You now talk about a side bet that was not around 20 years ago.
Hey High odds payoff with less than 10% edge. Someone can make a lot of money. But, They are in the minority.

The math does Not say the bet is BAD.
You said that, not the math.

It tells us what the house edge is, the expected value, the variance of one or more bets, what we can expect after many bets made.
It allows us to compare different bets with each other.

Is that player your "new God"
Hey, cool, we can worship who or what ever we want. This country is a free one.

Now, if you believe him telling you he wins all the time and the dealers telling you he wins all the time, that is your chouse to believe.
I never believe the stories from any Craps players.
They are among the best at tall fish stroies and flat out not telling the whole truth about gambling.

Good Luck to you too.


Try to add some math to your posts.
The math could contain errors, that is OK.

You said "The Math says the All, Tall, Small Bet is BAD,"
BAD and not bad.
Now, show the math. It does not have to be yours.

This thread is about Craps Math.
Center stage.
Time to shine!

Quote: 24Bingo

I'd be willing to bet that you're getting an exaggerated picture of the consistency of his wins - I don't doubt he had a hell of a good two months, but I don't believe for a second he made a profit every single day in them, and in general, the people who consistently make sucker bets like that have given more to the casino building fund than those who make sounder ones. A bad bet doesn't mean there aren't the occasional big winners, and again, longshot bets (like all, tall, and small) make for dramatic extremes; people win the state lottery, even multiple times, but even you aren't going to tell me that's a good bet, are you?

Nope, but I'm going to tell you what people say after winning huge on sucker bets: I'm doing better than you so who are you to argue with the results? The ironic truth about gambling is: any bet you win IS a good bet!

Good for you. Just don't expect a whole lot of "good bets."

CrapsForever: Did they actually say that it was, literally, every single day, without exception? Or did they just casually say "every day" or even "every single day" or even "literally every single day"? The ubiquity of hyperbole can make these things hard to judge...

7Craps: It's in the Wizard's appendix on craps variants - it's actually three separate bets, so I'm not sure if he means that the player was betting the three as whim took him, if it was the house name for the "all" bet, or if he's just confused, but the HE on the all bet is 7.99%, on the small and tall bets, 7.76%. So yeah, pretty bad. (But being extreme longshots, with the "all" bet paying 175:1, when they pay off, they really pay off, hence his friend's good months.)

Quote: 7craps

Good for him.
personally destroyed
What exactly does that mean and where is the documentation on it.

The lady that rolled 154 rolls in her hand has documentation.
I place more value in that than your statements.
But that is just me and my opinion.

The math NEVER says one can never win.
You now talk about a side bet that was not around 20 years ago.
Hey High odds payoff with less than 10% edge. Someone can make a lot of money. But, They are in the minority.

The math does Not say the bet is BAD.
You said that, not the math.

It tells us what the house edge is, the expected value, the variance of one or more bets, what we can expect after many bets made.
It allows us to compare different bets with each other.

Is that player your "new God"
Hey, cool, we can worship who or what ever we want. This country is a free one.

Now, if you believe him telling you he wins all the time and the dealers telling you he wins all the time, that is your chouse to believe.
I never believe the stories from any Craps players.
They are among the best at tall fish stroies and flat out not telling the whole truth about gambling.

Good Luck to you too.


Try to add some math to your posts.
The math could contain errors, that is OK.

You said "The Math says the All, Tall, Small Bet is BAD,"
BAD and not bad.
Now, show the math. It does not have to be yours.

This thread is about Craps Math.
Center stage.
Time to shine!

Actually I think you are being a bit unfair. This thread is entitled: "Craps Math is not important-lets have at it" Aren't you kind of browbeating people in your demands for math to back up their opinions? There is another side to gambling. It is the philosophical, the superstitious, the uncanny. Math oriented people don't like dealing in that venue but nevertheless it is a huge portion of the gambling community. I thought this thread was an opportunity for some give and take between those viewpoints. Perhaps I was wrong.

Quote: 24Bingo

Good for you. Just don't expect a whole lot of "good bets."

CrapsForever: Did they actually say that it was, literally, every single day, without exception? Or did they just casually say "every day" or even "every single day" or even "literally every single day"? The ubiquity of hyperbole can make these things hard to judge.

Three separate Dealers told me "He comes in here EVERY SINGLE DAY for 2 hours and makes $4,000 - $6,000 profit on the All, Tall, Small Bet". The player himself chastised me..."Stop taking so long with the Dice, I have been here 2.5 hours, I am usually out of here earlier with my pockets FAT, I am the reason they are changing the rules here...."

All, Small, Tall Bet was taken out of the Casino 2 weeks later....with the Craps Pit confirming to me over the phone.... "We are getting KILLED with this bet, worst mistake we ever made, we are too small of a Casino to keep losing like this especially to one player".

What more proof do you need?

As I just said, the ubiquity of hyperbole can make these things hard to judge. A dealer might well say he was winning "every single day" if he was only winning with some frequency, and it doesn't seem unlikely that as often as not, he was just hitting his stoploss and heading out confident that he'd be back the next day for more.

Quote: 24Bingo

7Craps: It's in the Wizard's appendix on craps variants - it's actually three separate bets, so I'm not sure if he means that the player was betting the three as whim took him, if it was the house name for the "all" bet, or if he's just confused, but the HE on the all bet is 7.99%, on the small and tall bets, 7.76%. So yeah, pretty bad. (But being extreme longshots, with the "all" bet paying 175:1, when they pay off, they really pay off, hence his friend's good months.)

Thanks.
I am very aware of what the bets are.

When I dealt the game we did not have those bets, or even the fire bet. This was in the 1990s
Just 30 to 1 prop bets.

With a 34 and 174 to one payout, someone with a large enough bankroll could score big, just like 100X odds.

with about 1 in 190 chance of hitting at least one 174 payout,
(I do not think that is THAT extreme)

in 60 daily bets
27.13949% chance to have a net win after 60 bets of at least 115 times your unit bet.
This can impress many, even Dealers, but not me.

SD/EV is a very high thrill factor! (about -160)

removed
silly

Sally

one thing, Sally, you never seem to say is that 'you can change the HE, but not the EV.'

If a gambler makes 100 line bets, no other bets, he can not change the EV of those bets by betting more money on the odds.

If the gambler, however, would make *less* line bets but add odds, then quit at the approximate point he bet the same amount in total bets, equal to 100 line bets, then that player at that time is expected to lose quite a bit less. Less line bets!

IMO this is why there is an element of foolishness for the player who is not really comfortable with the size of the bet he starts making, but just starts adding odds bets thinking he is bettering his chances with no plan whatsoever to make less line bets.

I grant you there are other scenarios that make odds bets tower as strategy. Say the player craves the action and would instead be making place bets to get that action, waiting for the point to be resolved, then yes! Switching to the odds bets *instead* of place bets would be the smartest move that player ever made.

Quote: odiousgambit

one thing, Sally, you never seem to say is that 'you can change the HE, but not the EV.'

If a gambler makes 100 line bets, no other bets, he can not change the EV of those bets by betting more money on the odds.

Exactly. And I say it is the combined house edge that is changed only because more is wagered.
Many just say that is stupid, you just can lose more.

And it is not that important to change the EV unless the EV goes more negative.
The variance from the odds is what gives the player a greater chance to win without making the EV worse as does all other bets other than the odds bet.
That is the key. (players risking the same bankroll and making the same average bets)

added:
The example of making 100 bets is still not a fair and proper comparison because the average bet and the total action are not the same.
A $10 pass with 3X odds has a $30 average bet (1/3*10 + 2/3*40 = 10/3+80/3 = 90/3)
and total action of $3,000.
A $10 pass player with no odds has an average bet of just $10, duh, and a total action of only $1,000.

Now let the no odds bettor make his flat bet $30 for a total action of $3000 and what is his EV now? -$42.42
The same as the odds taker? (-$14.14) Of course not. Way higher.
The better bet is?

always taking the odds

Quote: odiousgambit

If the gambler, however, would make *less* line bets but add odds, then quit at the approximate point he bet the same amount in total bets, equal to 100 line bets, then that player at that time is expected to lose quite a bit less. Less line bets!

And at the same time still has the greatest chance to break even or come out ahead.

Quote: odiousgambit

IMO this is why there is an element of foolishness for the player who is not really comfortable with the size of the bet he starts making, but just starts adding odds bets thinking he is bettering his chances with no plan whatsoever to make less line bets.

Most line bettors do not even know what their average bet is.
And from there they then have no clue on the proper bankroll needed for that average bet
This thread started because of a statement by the OP linked as
"I think we get too hung up on the math of the game, and lose sight of the fact that it matters less what you are betting on, and more about whether or not your bet is getting paid."

This statement is false based on the math, except if one only makes about less than 100 lifetime bets.

Quote: odiousgambit

I grant you there are other scenarios that make odds bets tower as strategy.
Say the player craves the action and would instead be making place bets to get that action,
waiting for the point to be resolved, then yes!
Switching to the odds bets *instead* of place bets would be the smartest move that player ever made.

Many will still disagree because they do not understand the math and the consequences of their bets as they make more and more of them.

very few Craps players make place bets AND come bets at the same time, coming down with the place bets and taking the odds.
This adds both variance and -EV in a different way than just come bets and just place bets.
A place bettor would be better off to make both bets, but they would still never believe any math or simulation results showing this.
Making both bets gets even more messy with the math.

summary.
Learn the math behind the bets you make.
Then see if you can do better, on average, by making different bets over time before you even step into a casino.

Going by,
I think, or it feels like, or to me it seems
is going bye bye.

Sally

I'm curious why no one discusses "chance of winning" when discussing the odds bets on the pass and come bets. This also goes for wrong way bettors.

Place bettors will bet more on the inside numbers, so why shouldn't odds bettors also load up on the odds on the inside numbers and lower the amount of odds bet on the outside numbers that have a lesser chance of hitting?

For example, you are at the Riviera with 1000x odds: would you be better off using your chips to load up on the odds when the point is a 6 as opposed to when the point is the 4?

removed
silly

Quote: mustangsally

Many will still disagree because they do not understand the math and the consequences of their bets as they make more and more of them.

"Still a man hears what he wants to hear
And disregards the rest"

Since the math of Craps is not at all important to the vast majority of Craps players, they can have their way.
I say it is great.
Casinos make great money from them and there will be those lucky sessions that make everyone happy.

Casinos also know that if all Craps players just made line bets with odds, the casinos could not make enough money to keep the game open.

Sally thanks for the response.

But I think you missed my question which is about taking into consideration the "chance of winning" and not the payoff at true odds.

In my original question I asked: For example, you are at the Riviera with 1000x odds: would you be better off using your chips to load up on the odds when the point is a 6 as opposed to when the point is the 4?"

You responded with: "Another excellent question. No. You are not better off. It is because the odds are not being short changed in any way."

You see, you responded with the "true odds" answer but didn't take into account my original question, which is the chance of winning. You have a greater chance of winning when the point is six than when the point is 4.

So again, should you load up on the odds when the point is six instead of when the point is 4? It seems like the right thing to do because you have a greater chance of losing your odds when the point is 4, doesn't it?

And again my original question: why do players look to the payoffs, but not to the chance of winning?

Quote: AlanMendelson

Sally thanks for the response.

But I think you missed my question which is about taking into consideration the "chance of winning" and not the payoff at true odds.

In my original question I asked: For example, you are at the Riviera with 1000x odds: would you be better off using your chips to load up on the odds when the point is a 6 as opposed to when the point is the 4?"

You responded with: "Another excellent question. No. You are not better off. It is because the odds are not being short changed in any way."

You see, you responded with the "true odds" answer but didn't take into account my original question, which is the chance of winning. You have a greater chance of winning when the point is six than when the point is 4.

You did not understand my complete answer. I showed what happens over 9 bets.
3/9 probability of winning
6/9 probability of losing

What in the math do you not understand??

Quote: AlanMendelson

So again, should you load up on the odds when the point is six instead of when the point is 4? It seems like the right thing to do because you have a greater chance of losing your odds when the point is 4, doesn't it?

And again my original question: why do players look to the payoffs, but not to the chance of winning?

For the odds it makes no difference as I said before. It makes a big difference to load up on the Place6&8 and place very little on the Place5&9

Again, I showed my math.
What in the math do you not understand?
I can re-do it if that would help
The expected loss in my example was just 3 $5 flat bets.

Quote: mustangsally

You did not understand my complete answer. I showed what happens over 9 bets.
3/9 probability of winning
6/9 probability of losing

What in the math do you not understand??

That's it. You gave a perfect illustration of what I am talking about. In the case of putting "odds money" on the "4" you have a 3-to-2 chance of losing each and every time. Since dice have no memory and there is no guarantee you will win "one out of three times" which is what would happen in a perfect world, why fight those stiff odds of winning. Why not save your odds money for a better bet such as placing odds money on the 6 and 8 where you have a better chance of winning?

None of us have an unlimited bankroll. Why not use the bankroll for the most advantageous bets?

This is the question I never see addressed. I am way off the wall here??

craps math is a wonderful thing,
a world of reason and explanations and expectation.
unfortunately, the dice have no mind, no ears,
and only the dim eyes of a snake.

removed
silly

Make no mistake... I always bet full odds on my passline bets... but I can afford the losses and I am only playing 3, 4, 5 X odds.

Now, if I were playing over at the Riviera and wanted to bet their max of 1,000X odds I would not automatically bet full odds on every point.

There I would have to judge my "chance of winning" and I would be more likely to bet 1,000X odds on 6 and 8 than on 4 and 10.

When I gamble sometimes I have to put chance of losing ahead of payoffs on winning.

And as I said before, am I the only one who thinks this way???

Quote: AlanMendelson

And as I said before, am I the only one who thinks this way???

No, you are just the only one for whom it takes 1,000x odds to start thinking that way.
I start thinking that way somewhere around 1x or 2x odds.