How many come bets are optimal?
Quote: 4andaKickerPure chance. Yep. Luck. And all the mathematical modeling in the world can't and won't help a bit with that. Some people don't want to admit that luck is the only factor that matters, but it is. You can choose any game in the casino, and everyone who has ever played it will have a hundred stories about how they saw people making the dumbest possible decisions and coming out on top because of luck.
GOLD!
Figure out how many come bets are made per 100 rolls with a max on the number working at one time.
If you can't do that with math or simulation , try this link.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/9693-choosing-dont-pass-dont-come-instead/#post144353
All Place bettors always slam the come bettors because of the "numbers loaded" 7out roll.
They claim it happens a lot or all the time and NEVER shows how often by math or sim.
values are from simulation and are rounded
The average number of rolls per 100 rolls that all the come points (6) are covered is
.65
Not even one roll on average
here are the rest
#: rolls average
5: 6
4: 10.1
3: 13.3
2: 16.2
1: 18.9
5 or more: 6.65 rolls per 100 rolls
4 or more: 16.75
3 or more: 30
2 or more: 46.25
1 or more: 66
Only 30% of the rolls have 3 or more come bets on them.
ALL come bets over any time frame win at a 49.3% rate. exactly 244/495
Does not matter if there is 1,2,3,4,5 or 6 of them on the layout at the same time.
I leave out the variance since most all do not even know what that is
Bigger wins and smaller losses VS. the pass/odds and Place6&8 bettor.
short term or long term sessions.
Who do I leave out?
Prove me wrong.
next
Simply $5 pass-odds with continuous come-odds bet until 4 come-odds bets are established leaving one open number only, with 3x,4x,5x odds, no odds regressions or pressing, with a $700 session bankroll. A decent $300 win last night with minimal $100-200 downside. It worked very well last night, but all sessions are different as we know.
The bankroll is very important, must have a big bankroll to survive the cold swings in this sometimes volatile game as experienced players already know.
Quote: FleaStiff2.2374 is optimal. Which sort of leaves you with a practical choice of either 2 or 3.
Just in the interest of fair disclosure this 2.2374 figure was of course pure whimsey since y'all know I can't do any math.
:DQuote: FleaStiffJust in the interest of fair disclosure this 2.2374 figure was of course pure whimsey since y'all know I can't do any math.
Little did you know, but you knew,
that number is very close to the 2.375 average number of come points per roll when making come bets every roll.
3.375 is with the pass line included.
Quote: mustangsally:D
Little did you know, but you knew, that number is very close to the 2.375 average number of come points per roll when making come bets every roll. 3.375 is with the pass line included.
I'm not really sure what you mean by this.
I think you are referring to some mathematically pure "average roll" which is perhaps akin to referring to some average female or average wave. A man who treats a woman as an average female will be lucky if all he gets is his face slapped. A person on the beach perceives the waves as all the same but heaven help you if you say that to some muscle bound surfer dude.
IF I were to consistently make One Pass Line Bet thats fine. The choice is either zero or one.
IF I were to consistently make Come Bets as well, there is a problem. The choices available may vary but will always be things like 2, 3 or 4. There will never be a chance to make .375ths of a bet. (The most I could do is make a come bet that was roughly .375ths of my dollar amount (table limits allowing).
I've occasionally played as if there were such a thing as an "average roll":
I start out on the Pass Line.
I make a few Come Bets and allow a few rolls to go by,
but soon I become certain that the dreaded "average Seven Out" is due and switch to making Don't Come bets.
Too many of those actual rolls bear no resemblance to that mathematically pure "average roll".
We all remember the Point--Seven-out rolls. We all remember the rolls that go on and on. We all remember the DontCome bets being knocked down and the Seven following along behind.
My most recent craps game featured some fairly long rolls and a great fondness for the Six and Eight which were sometimes hitting three or four times a roll. Of course my perceptions were a bit "off" at times due to the motion of the vessel but those chips kept piling up so I must have been doing something right despite the fact that I was betting as a "nickle and dime flea".
in other words, highest expected value?
zero.
Quote: WongBohow many come bets are optimal: in other words, highest expected value?... zero.
You can't win if you don't play the game. There is an opportunity cost to selecting "zero" in life. Presumably every one here is the type who plays the game.
but facts are a stubborn thing.
personally, i like to get 4 come bets out.
but sometimes, will just go continuous.
Now what is the proper bankroll??, very important issue here, per my experience:
Bankroll needed: $5 base with $10 odds, need $700 session. If want higher odds, just figure the percentage increase based on this.
The best outcome is when some hits repeaters and there is a lot of "off and on for $___"...the worst, loading all the points and hitting the 7.
It can be fun, not overly expensive, and makes for a nice win if you get a shooter hitting lots of box numbvers without hitting the point.
silly
You left out a few bets to cover.Quote: CrapsForeverZERO!
Pass Line / Come
Don't Pass / Don't Come
Place 6 / 8
Place 5 / 9
Place 4 / 10
Buy 4 / 10 (vig on win only)
Buy 5 / 9 (vig on win only)
Buy 6 / 8 (vig on win only)
Buy 4 / 10
Buy 5 / 9
Buy 6 / 8
Lay 4 / 10 (vig on win only)
Lay 5 / 9 (vig on win only)
Lay 6 / 8 (vig on win only)
Lay 4 / 10
Lay 5 / 9
Lay 6 / 8
Field
Hard 6 / Hard 8
Hard 4 / Hard 10
Any Craps
C and E
Three / Eleven
Two / Twelve
Hop (2 ways)
Hop (2 ways)
Hop (1 way)
Hop (1 way)
Horn
World
Under 7 / Over 7
Any Seven
Optimum number of bets to make for any of the above bets.
Zero!
Just what CrapsForever said
Quote: mustangsallyI was told by a few Craps dealers that this is called "down with odds" when making a place and come bet together.
The place bet and winnings come down and the odds go on to the new come point.
It dramatically lowers the overall house edge and keeps the variance about the same, increasing the chances of coming out ahead in any craps session.
Lowers it from what? Because I can tell you that expected values always add, so the edge will always be the average of the edges. For that reason, place bets can't lower the edge on a come bet or line bet, period.
Lowers the combined place bet total house edge.Quote: 24BingoLowers it from what? Because I can tell you that expected values always add, so the edge will always be the average of the edges. For that reason, place bets can't lower the edge on a come bet or line bet, period.
Someone going 26, 27 or 32 across works against a high 3.73% total house edge.
Making place bets and then a come bet and "down with odds"
Going from a place bet to a come bet with odds and no place bet, for the same total risked, takes the total house edge down to 2%, almost half.
Run a simulation and you will see.
That is impressive as it keeps the variance, because of the odds on the come bets, high to give the player a better chance at a winning session than just making place bets alone.
This will make a good thread on it's own
This place/come bet method only works at lowering the EV if one makes a smaller come bet vs. the place bet to be replaced and an average bet close to the average bet of the place bet.Quote: mustangsally
Making place bets and then a come bet and "down with odds"
Going from a place bet to a come bet with odds and no place bet, for the same total risked, takes the total house edge down to 2%, almost half.
Say, a $25 place 5 and the player now makes a $25 come and takes odds, 4X on a 345X table.
Sure the EV is slightly less, but the Risk of Ruin just went through the roof since the average bet for the $25 come bettor is now $94.99.
A $6 come bet will have about a $23 average bet and an even lower EV than the $25 place bet it replaced.
Now, try to convince a place bettor at the $25 level to come down with odds and make $6 come bets.
It won't happen.
The math looks good for this style of play and I have known many Craps players that used both place and come bets.
I will have to break out the old sim results and math on this one
The challenge of showing sim results is there can easily be about 96 different combos of place bets and press and pull methods to cover.Quote: RonCI'd like to see the simulation results...it is a style of play I like to use at least once per trip...
One sim would not make everyone happy.
It is easier to just compare a few methods against each other
and then make adjustments to different numbers bet and different average bet scenarios.
I may be able to dig some results up also.
Quote: GrebnesorMy question is simple. When betting with the shooter, is there an optimum number of come bets that I should make? Theoretically I can't see a reason not to be always coming with full odds, and hoping for a long roll. Of course, I lose a lot of money if the table is loaded up. Is this dumb? And if so, why? Many shooters bet only the first 3 or 4 points and stop.
I was doing Pass Line and Multiple Come Bets (all usually with odds) on my most recent craps voyage, but I was usually rewarded with a SevenOut that took every bet. Shifting to the Don'tPass, DC (or combinations) didn't seem to help me.
Sure with those come bets I'd occasionally hit and I'd certainly occasionally hit my Placed Six and Placed Eight bets but in reality that Seven Out kept coming at me too soon.
The other thing to consider is that your comp rating takes a beating with Come bets. Assume a $10, 3-4-5x table, $70 win paid on any box number rolled.
As a Place/Buy bettor across, I will have 36,50,60,60,50,36 on the table, or $292 in action, all $292 getting rated for comps (odd amount on 4/10 to account for vig).
As a Come bettor, who has bases loaded, I will have 10w30,10w40,10w50,10w50,10w40,10w30= $300 on table, but I am only getting a comp rating on $60, the 6 $10 Come bets only. None of the odds counts (in most casinos).
But what happens when a 7 gets rolled? The Place bettor loses $292, the Come bettor loses $300, but wins a $10 come bet, so loses $290. So both players lose almost the same amount of money, but the Place bettor is rated $290 in action, while the Come bettor gets rated for $60. This is a serious discrepancy in the rating amount. We both stand to lose $290. At $60 , I get a free room. At $290, I get a flight, room, and meals.
Now this comparison was for Bases Loaded (Come bets on all numbers) which does not happen all that often.
A more realistic example is one where the shooter rolls 3 or 4 box numbers, where 1 or 2 are repeaters.
The Place/Buy bettor still has the same $292 at risk for a 7 out at any time.
The Come bettor may only have 1 or 2 bets active, so total action on the table is somewhere around $100, only getting comp'd on $20-$30.
When the 7 out hits, the Come bettor makes out because he only loses $100, compared to the $292 loss of the Place/Buy bettor.
The straight Come bettor makes out better than the Place/Buy bettor because they have much less action at risk, for the times when the shooter rolls a 7 out very early in the roll, which is quite often. When they combine the Place/Buy bet, then they are putting just as much BR at risk to the early 7 out as the straight Place/Buy bettor .
The comp rating does not take a beating.Quote: RaleighCrapsThe major problem with the place bets, and down with come odds (which I too play at times) is you have a lot at risk for the immediate 7 out. Of course, this is the same risk that I have as a Place/Buy bettor. By adding in the Place across, the Come bettor is now losing some of their inherent BR protection from the early 7 out.
The other thing to consider is that your comp rating takes a beating with Come bets. Assume a $10, 3-4-5x table, $70 win paid on any box number rolled.
As a Place/Buy bettor across, I will have 36,50,60,60,50,36 on the table, or $292 in action, all $292 getting rated for comps (odd amount on 4/10 to account for vig).
As a Come bettor, who has bases loaded, I will have 10w30,10w40,10w50,10w50,10w40,10w30= $300 on table, but I am only getting a comp rating on $60, the 6 $10 Come bets only. None of the odds counts (in most casinos).
This is so easily simulated it is not funny.
You are missing the whole point to "down with odds" style of play.
One starts off with 36,50,60,60,50,36 on the table, or $292 in action
The only time a place bet is removed is after it wins.
The come bet and odds now replaces the place bet determined by the roll of the dice and the dice roll only.
Same comp value for the initial $292.
your take a beating holds no water
Quote: mustangsallyThe comp rating does not take a beating.
This is so easily simulated it is not funny.
You are missing the whole point to "down with odds" style of play.
One starts off with 36,50,60,60,50,36 on the table, or $292 in action
The only time a place bet is removed is after it wins.
The come bet and odds now replaces the place bet determined by the roll of the dice and the dice roll only.
Same comp value for the initial $292.
your take a beating holds no water
au contraire!
Place bets and come bets with odds are rated much differently by the casino.
If the pit manager rates the table when you have $300 in Come bets on the table as I showed above, your rating will be $60.
I understand what the style of play is, as I do it at times. When you have a $60 place on the 6, you will get rated for the $60. When the 6 is rolled and your Come bet pays you $70, and you then take down your place $60, putting $50 in odds on the Come 6 bet, and put the remaining $10 in your rack, you are now going to get rated for only $10 in action, even though you still have $60 in action on the 6.
The pit may let a couple of Come bets slide when they rate you, but if they see them enough, your rating will be lowered. FACT
I thought you did not understand what down with odds meant.Quote: RaleighCraps
au contraire!
Place bets and come bets with odds are rated much differently by the casino.
If the pit manager rates the table when you have $300 in Come bets on the table as I showed above, your rating will be $60.
I understand what the style of play is, as I do it at times. When you have a $60 place on the 6, you will get rated for the $60. When the 6 is rolled and your Come bet pays you $70, and you then take down your place $60, putting $50 in odds on the Come 6 bet, and put the remaining $10 in your rack, you are now going to get rated for only $10 in action, even though you still have $60 in action on the 6.
The pit may let a couple of Come bets slide when they rate you, but if they see them enough, your rating will be lowered. FACT
Still, The original $292 in your example is still rated!
Why do you over look that FACT!
You always overlook many facts if they do not prove that you are correct.
Too bad for you...
No pit boss would lower your comp value on that $292 after seeing 2 or 3 come bets.
The average number of come bets is 2.375
Come bets, with place bets do
NOT take a beating VS place bets only. That IS a FACT RaleighCraps and that can easily be proven in any court of law.
Come bets by themselves VS place bets will take a beating as you have pointed out
Again, very easily simulated in WinCraps.
It has a whole page on comp calculations that you can adjust however you want.
Exactly what is the difference in percentage RaleighCraps
show your math.
For one, two and 4 hours of play.
you know the facts
show them
but I will not see them
But, I can tell you from experience, (and based on other posts, I think my craps experience is longer than you have been on earth), if you placed $292 across and then proceeded to take them down as your Come bets hit, you will not get credit for the full $292. Your hourly rating will be much, much less, than the Place bettor who leaves the full $292 up the whole time.
Yes, I've not quite understood this "down with odds" particularly when they mere do it and don't say it as well. In full it would be "Sir, I'm paying off and taking down your Place Bet and using the payoff money to put odds onto your new Come Bet and am doing this so that you get a more favorable payout if it ever does roll again". This is standard procedure and is indeed better for the player, though in the heat of the action the player may forget that his Place Bet (which he remembers making) went down.Quote: mustangsallyI was told by a few Craps dealers that this is called "down with odds" when making a place and come bet together.
The place bet and winnings come down and the odds go on to the new come point.
It dramatically lowers the overall house edge and keeps the variance about the same, increasing the chances of coming out ahead in any craps session.
>The problem looks to be one remembers better losing many bets at one time, ...
Yes. That dreaded Seven Out has impact: emotional and visual and is indeed remembered.
After taking the odds on the come point , are you "coming down' on that place betQuote: RonCOne thing I will do every so often (and it has been a winner and a loser) is bet the pass line, add 2x odds ($5/$10),
place a $5 come bet,
and place each point for $5/$6.
When the come travels to the next number, I use the payoff on that to make it double odds, and then make another come bet.
or are you also leaving the place bet up?
That is what down with odds is all about.
Taking a higher house edge bet and replacing it with a lower combined house edge bet
and keeping the variance about the same while lowering the EV.
A good comparison, would be what you said above and removing the place bet after a win
vs.
Just making the place bets and no come bets.
in different words:
Place bets only
vs.
place bets followed by removing the place bet in favor of come/odds.
I still have to locate my simulation data.
Sally will probably beat me to it.
6/8 - If you had a $30 Place bet, it pays $35. If you moved that $30 to Come 6 odds, it would pay you $36, for a gain of $1.
5/9 - If you had a $20 place bet, it pays $28. If you moved that $20 to Come 5 odds, it would pay you $30, for a gain of $2.
4/10 - If you had a $20 buy bet, it pays $39. If you moved that $20 to Come 4 odds, it would pay you $40, for a gain of $1.
So the difference is $1 or $2 every time a box number is rolled, which can be quite significant on a good roll.
Quote: RaleighCrapsBy taking your place bet down, and moving the money to the odds bet, how much are you really gaining?
for a gain of $1.
for a gain of $2.
for a gain of $1.
These are the things a dealer is supposed to do. Gain you money by watching the details.
Moving a Place Bet that is on the Six or Eight to the companion number when one becomes the point is done for the same reason, though I sometimes say "leave it, please".
>So the difference is $1 or $2 every time a box number is rolled, which can be quite significant on a good roll.
True, once it is "down with your place bet on 'x'" then anytime 'x' rolls again .... but the odds always favor a Seven Out.
Quote: DeMangoSo if my $5 come moves to the 6, and I move my place as odds, then the next hit pays $41 no?
If you end up with the $5 come bet and $30 odds, you'd get $41...$5 on the come and $36 on the odds.
I think the reason he said $36 was that there is also the continuous come bet to bring back "up"...so you'd be "off and on" for $36.
Quote: FleaStiffI was doing Pass Line and Multiple Come Bets (all usually with odds) on my most recent craps voyage, but I was usually rewarded with a SevenOut that took every bet. Shifting to the Don'tPass, DC (or combinations) didn't seem to help me.
Sure with those come bets I'd occasionally hit and I'd certainly occasionally hit my Placed Six and Placed Eight bets but in reality that Seven Out kept coming at me too soon.
I will go to my grave saying the Craps game on a boat can not be compared to a Land based Casino....
Go on a Casino Boat/Cruise with $500...no matter how you play....you'll be happy to come back with any money left in your wallet.
Quote: RonCIf you end up with the $5 come bet and $30 odds, you'd get $41...$5 on the come and $36 on the odds.
I think the reason he said $36 was that there is also the continuous come bet to bring back "up"...so you'd be "off and on" for $36.
I was purely talking about the movement of a place bet, to become an odds bet.
So a $30 place 6, would pay $35, but if it was moved to be Come 6 odds, it would pay $36.
However, that would be 6x odds on a $5 Come bet, which is higher than most games allow.
And I was not referring at all to the base come bet, which is only going to pay you 1:1
So now I will do the whole thing (which will get me into trouble, no doubt....... LOL)
$5 table 3-4-5x odds
ignore pass line bet, it is the same as a come bet anyway.
Let's Place bet across (just enough so we will be able to take our place bet+winning, to make enough to take full odds on our Come bet)
Place $5,$10,$12,$12,$10,$5 = $54
$5 Come Bet every time
if a 4/10 is rolled , you get your $5 place +$9 win, so you add $1 to get $5CB w $15 odds - From there, any more 4/10 is off and on for $35
if a 5/9 is rolled, you get your $10 place +$14 win, so you pocket $4, and you have $5 CB w $20 odds - From there, any more 5/9 is off and on for $35
if a 6/8 is rolled, you get your $12 place +$14 win, so you pocket $1, and you have a $5 CB w $25 odds - From there, any more 6/8 is off and on for $35
If shooter goes PSO, you lose your $54 across, but win $5 new CB, so you lose $49
If shooter makes only 1 box number, you lose $54 (+ or - a bit depending on the number) - 1x$5 CB + $5 new CB = loss of ~ $54
If shooter makes only 2 box numbers (no repeats) you lose ~$50 , - 2x $5 CB + $5 new CB = loss of ~$55
....
If a shooter makes 6 box numbers (no repeats) you lose $48 in place money ($54- (2x$4) pocketed wins) -$30 in CB, +$5 new CB = loss of $78 (WORST CASE)
Any Repeat number puts $35 in your pocket each time. So, if your shooter can repeat any 2 of your Come bets, you will be ahead for that shooter, assuming no other bets or increases are made, except in the one case where the shooter only makes 2 numbers, but loads the bases for the 7 out, in which case you lose $8.
Quote: CrapsForeverQuote: FleaStiff
I was doing Pass Line and Multiple Come Bets (all usually with odds) on my most recent craps voyage, but I was usually rewarded with a SevenOut that took every bet. Shifting to the Don'tPass, DC (or combinations) didn't seem to help me.
Sure with those come bets I'd occasionally hit and I'd certainly occasionally hit my Placed Six and Placed Eight bets but in reality that Seven Out kept coming at me too soon.
I will go to my grave saying the Craps game on a boat can not be compared to a Land based Casino....
Go on a Casino Boat/Cruise with $500...no matter how you play....you'll be happy to come back with any money left in your wallet.
Fleastiff's experience mirror's mine, and I have never played on a casino boat (excluding Cruise ships).
Almost every session I will try to be the 'correct' math player, and play only PassLine and CB, with full odds ($10 table). And, it seems that every time, I get KILLED. Shooter either goes PSO (which is actually a good outcome for me, from my usual Place/Buy betting, as I just saved $90), or they roll 2 or 3 box numbers with no repeats, so I manage to lose $30 in CB + $120 or so in odds, and win $10 new CB = ~$140 loss.
Now if a shooter can manage to make at least one repeat number, then the pain is greatly diminished, but that, generally, has not been my experience.
Does that mean I am due ? Oops, Gambler's Fallacy
