Guaranteed Win with Match Play Coupon

Upon signing up for a new player’s card at the Valley Forge Casino, I was presented with a $100 match play coupon. The mathematical expected value of this coupon is approximately $48.50 if played alone on the Pass or Don’t Pass. However, the actual result from it will either be a $100 win or a $0 win, for a pretty large variance. Moreover, the playing of said coupon requires an additional $100 bet by the player, which might be outside of the budget of many players. There is, however, a hedge strategy that guarantees a net win.

Bet $100 and $100 match play on the Pass.
Bet $150 on the Don’t Pass.
Bet $5 on the 12.

Now let’s look at the net win for each possible dice outcome.
2, 3: Win the Don’t Pass (+150), but lose the Pass (-100) and 12 (-5) for a net win of $45.
7, 11: Win the Pass (+200), but lose the Don’t Pass (-150) and 12 (-5) for a net win of $45.
4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10: If the point is made, win the Pass (+200), but lose the Don’t Pass (-150). If the point is not made, win the Don’t Pass (+150), but lose the Pass (-100). Either way, lose the 12 (-5). In all cases, the net win is $45.
12: Win the 12 (+150), but lose the Pass (-100) for a net win of $50.

The overall expectation is slightly lower, as more money is subject to a house advantage, but the variance is significantly reduced. Good tradeoff in most cases.

They can't be fond of this kind of thing. I mean, technically, it doesn't hurt them at all, but neither does opposite betting the tickets themselves, and they nearly always take measures against that. It just goes against the spirit of the promotion.

most likely you will not be able to play the matchplay in this manner,
but give it a try, it's a new place, they may not say anything.

out of curiosity...was there a reason that you took the $100 coupon instead of the also offered 2x$50 offering? When i signed up last week, I asked for the 2x$50 but they had some sort of system issue. So i did free slot play instead. That kind of sucked. But, i guess I have my second $50 of free play to use when/if I go back.

Am I to understand that if I go to Valley Forge, then I will get $100 in Free Slots Play that I can use entirely that day?

i think you have to sign up for a paid membership, it is a members only casino.
the memberships are $60/year, and $20 for 3 months,
not sure if you get the $100 for either membership.
onetime access for $10 spent on premises.
i went for a night for $10,
which i used for drinks and
$10 in slot play for signing up for a players card.

$100 in fsp is much more valuable than a $100 matchplay.

i read on their site that you have to earn two points to get the slot play.
if i recall, i did not earn many points,
(playing $25 pai gow tiles for 3 hours, $10 craps for an hour, $10 3CP for 45 minutes)

contact VALLEY SERVICES: 610.354.8118

Valley Forge Casino Resort
1160 First Avenue
King of Prussia PA 19406

You're "straight-up" given a free bet coupon by them....

So in return, can you be straight up about it, and bet it straight up without hedging it?

Nothing to lose, it's on them. Give them that consideration.

Quote: Paigowdan

You're "straight-up" given a free bet coupon by them....

So in return, can you be straight up about it, and bet it straight up without hedging it?

Nothing to lose, it's on them. Give them that consideration.

I wouldn't call it a free bet with nothing to lose. He has to put up $100 for the coupon to be of any value.

If it was a Direct Bet coupon and not a Match Play coupon, then it would be a free bet.

Quote: FatGeezus

I wouldn't call it a free bet with nothing to lose. He has to put up $100 for the coupon to be of any value.

If it was a Direct Bet coupon and not a Match Play coupon, then it would be a free bet.

+1. He has $100 to lose. That's a night's bankroll for a lot of folks...

Bring a friend, have the friend put $100 on don't pass, and don't worry about the 12 hitting. You can gamble a little...

Excellent system. Take the "free money" 100% of the time.

Quote: WongBo

most likely you will not be able to play the matchplay in this manner,
but give it a try, it's a new place, they may not say anything.

If they don't, it's a scared-money place and not worth playing at. Pure amateur hour.
Are they going to prohibit other hedges, too?

Quote: 24Bingo

I mean, technically, it doesn't hurt them at all, but neither does opposite betting the tickets themselves, and they nearly always take measures against that.

I've never seen that in several decades at the rail.

I have been surprised at the high % of negative comments. There is no reason for the house to disallow or even frown upon this strategy. As they have the mathematical advantage on absolutely every non-odds bet on the table, they want you to throw as much money as you are willing. Analogously, if you wish to put money on every number on the roulette wheel, they would be thrilled.

Darth
"Never underestimate the power of the dark side."

Quote: SanchoPanza

I've never seen that in several decades at the rail.

The only free play coupons I've ever gotten have disallowed don't pass, banker bets, and either red or black, either odd or even, and either big or small. Even free slot play is restricted from the roulette machines, the only place where opposite betting is really possible. It doesn't hurt them at all, but I guess they figure the kind of person who'll shrewdly play them for minimal variance isn't going to be the kind of person who'll go on to make them a lot of money, or that such betting will kill the table buzz.