Maximize Pass-odds with level odds betting

We know that the pass-ODDS with good sized odds is the best craps bet. But there are long losing streaks on the odds bet with sometimes 6 or more consecutive shooters failing to make a point , as overall about 40% of points will be made per the math. We have a good chance of winning if we concentrate on this one good bet AND avoid most of the bad losing spurts. If 6x or more odds, the house edge is miniscule.

So have decided that if 4 consecutive losing points, then stop betting. Then wait for a point to be made, then start anew with pass-odds and continue with pass-odds again until 4 consecutive losing points. So if say a shooter makes 2 points then 7out, the 7out counts as one losing point, then each consecutive losing point counts towards the 4 consecutive losing points stop play. On a decent table will have money in action for most of the time. I have encountered a max of 14 consecutive 7outs on one bad run, so saved what would have been 10 losing bets. Most of the time a point is made within the 4 consecutive losing stop play criteria, but significant savings on the real cold spurts which do happen. Craps=winning and losing TRENDS that sometimes seem to defy logic.

Have been playing with $5 pass and level $30 odds using a $700 day bankroll which is 20x my bet, bankroll is moving positive again with this good scheme.

cool!

I'm not going to argue against experiential things because I was not there, but I would suggest that your bankroll improvements are most likely due to simple variance.

Mathematically, you are worsening your EV for the session (and technically, yet infinitesimally, your lifetime Craps EV) every time you do not take the odds. I'd be hesitant to chime in with this, but I know someone is going to do it anyway...and I'm the first one here, but the dice have no idea that the previous four shooters established/missed a point.

It's not terribly unlikely to go four established points without a point being made, either. I'm not going to go too in-depth on this one, because you seem to know where to find all of the math you need, but once a point of, "4," has been established, it is twice as likely that the shooter Sevens-Out as it is that the shooter makes his point. You're basically talking about 66.666-% (round to 66.67%) that the shooter sevens-out.

It is more unlikely for a point of, "4," to be established four times in a row, but let's just say it is.

.6667 * .6667 * .6667 * .6667 = .19757 or 19.757%

In other words, if a point of "4," is established four consecutive times on five occasions, it can be expected to not be made four consecutive times on 1:5 of those occasions. That is not incredibly unlikely.

Just for the heck of it, let's go 6-Miss, 4-Miss, 9-Miss, 10-Miss:

.5455 * .6667 * .6000 * .6667 =

.1455 or 14.55%

If this sequence, (in any combination of two 4/10's one 5/9 and one 6/8) is established seven times, it can be expected that four consecutive points will not be established 14.55% or 1:6.87 times.

Again, this is not odds-defying as a short-term proposition.

I'd like to give it some perspective by saying that you are more likely (assuming the above sequence of points, any order, will be established) to fail to make four such consecutive points than you are to roll Any Craps as a one-roll Proposition.

In fact:

.5455 * .5455 *.5455 * .5455 = .0885 or an 8.85% chance of failing to make four consecutive points in a series of established 6's/8's. That's about 1:11.3.

You are more likely to miss four consecutive established 6's/8's than you are to hit an Easy Hop Bet on a one-roll proposition.

It's just not terribly unlikely. You get 0 HE on all odds bets whether you're takin' or layin', so always do one or the other!

Have you ever thought about just switching to the Wrong Way and Laying The Odds after four consecutive points fail to be made? You can then switch back to the Right Way as soon as a point gets made. If you do that, at least you won't be hurting your EV. You'll actually be helping it since the, "Wrong Way," is the, Right Way.

Mission: Your comments as to not taking odds leads me to believe you do not understand my betting scheme. After 4 consecutive point losses, I quit betting entirely, no line bet and no odds bet, there is no(0) disadvantage or advantage per the math. I am simply attempting to use trends to help net results and avoiding the bulk of losing trends is my goal here.

I dont know how you can argue as to my general conclusion: that concentrating on the odds bet and stop play on losing streaks is the best way of playing this crazy craps game..

Quote: dwm

We know that the pass-ODDS with good sized odds is the best craps bet.

Some may say the don't pass with odds is the best. It does require a much larger bankroll than pass line betting.

Quote: dwm

............................

Your threads and posts over time started with a BJ MM system and then moved to pass with odds.
You have taken many side streets a long the way, now you are back to where you started with a twist.
What stopped you from doing all this in WinCraps??

The session idea really needs to stop. Sure we play session by session but they only add up to one big lifetime session.
The math says so. Why fight it?
Love it and just keep playing.

There is no difference if you make 5,000 bets in a row,
or
skipping every 2nd and 3rd bet in a losing streak,
or
betting one bet every day for 5,000 days.

The bets you are making are independent events and just because you see streaks one way or another, after many of these bets, the streaks all disappear into the mix.
Sure we remember the streaks more, but there are more streaks of length 1 and 2 (3 out of 4)
than any other length and we do not seem to be very concerned with those that happen the most.

Quote: dwm

Have been playing with $5 pass and level $30 odds using a $700 day bankroll which is 20x my bet, bankroll is moving positive again with this good scheme.

That is great!

But you still have to understand that the longer you play and the more bets you make, you are less and less likely to continue having a positive bankroll.

By Limiting your lifetime play to max odds (or close to it) and that gives you the absolute best chance of ending your Craps career do to choice or death in the black.
Why? I think we know by now.
Bet $600 odds bet on the point 6 and the $600 pays $720... to the penny. not a penny LESS. Exactly 6 to 5 and not 7 to 6.
No short changing going on here. because the house edge = 0%

Now, many Craps players will say they can predict when the pass line will win or lose way better than the average person.
Just like knowing when to press a place bet and then take it down just before it would have lost.
That is great too!
That is a lot of work and lots of room for error.
A 0% HE bet needs no guessing or predicting when to make it or take it down.

DIs have their universe they live in, much different from the random roller.
That is also great!

I do not like it when the shooter, most DIs, can not get both dice to hit the wall.
I feel cheated, that the roll was not a random roll.

But I feel cheated a lot even at the grocery store.

Trends are our only chance, 7craps, and many sessions there are significant losing trends that must be minimized so the winning trends can get us over the hump. Why stand there and lose bet after bet and tell yourself this is just one lifetime roll, I say bet on the session trends.
There is no meaningful difference between pass-odds and dont pass odds either as noticed both posts above talk about the dp.

Quote: dwm

Mission: Your comments as to not taking odds leads me to believe you do not understand my betting scheme. After 4 consecutive point losses, I quit betting entirely, no line bet and no odds bet. There is no(0) disadvantage or advantage per the math of not betting during a bad run. I am simply attempting to use trends to help net results and avoiding the bulk of losing trends is my goal here.

I dont know how you can argue as to my general conclusion: that concentrating on the odds bet and stop play on losing streaks is the best way of playing this crazy craps game..

I understand your, "Scheme," perfectly, I just misunderstood what you meant by, "Not betting," I thought you just meant not taking the odds.

You are correct that there is no advantage/disadvantage, and because that is the case, it is not the, "Best," way to play Craps because you have temporarily ceased playing Craps. You're simply not playing.

If I were to get very technical, in the event that the fifth point is established/made, you have technically hurt yourself by not betting on that fifth point, but that's a post facto determination. You have also technically helped yourself if the fifth point is established/missed, but again, that's a post facto determination.

It is also a post facto determination whether or not you should have played the Don't/Laid.

I'm glad your bankroll is improving, and if you feel like this is the best way to go about it, abstaining from betting (as you have said) has no advantage/disadvantage, so go with it. I hope that it continues to pay dividends.

removed
silly

Quote: dwm

Trends are our only chance, 7craps, and many sessions there are significant losing trends that must be minimized so the winning trends can get us over the hump. Why stand there and lose bet after bet and tell yourself this is just one lifetime roll, I say bet on the session trends.

Looks like Sally beat me to it.
Just simulate this in WinCraps and you will see after any number of bets, stopping and starting makes no difference.

What is your win rate at accurately predicting winning and losing streaks? . . . .
I thought so.

These sequences will kill you as time goes on and as Sally pointed out.
LLLLW, WLLLW (3 wins out of 10, one less than average...a cold table)
10 bets
you did not win the odds on the 1st W (you stopped after 4 Ls)
you won 2 and lost 7 for a -5 net

betting all the time 3W, 7L for a -4 net.
You now have more catching up to do.

Quote: dwm

There is no meaningful difference between pass-odds and dont pass odds either as noticed both posts above talk about the dp.

Sure there is over a lifetime of play.
That is my whole point.
1,000 - 10 bet sessions = 1 - 10,000 bet session.
It does not matter the order they came in. Unless the DI shooters were not all hitting the back wall.

It is all relative.
I think the number is 1 in 1980.
After 198,000 such equal bets (easily made in one's lifetime)
the don't player wins 100 more bets than the pass.
My average winnings are $30 per bet = $3,000 more profit.

Why throw that away?

Craps is all about streaks and taking advantage of them.

*Day 1 playing Organic Craps....bought in for $40 ....built it to $330...kept playing...lost all $330 plus an additional $310.

*Day 2 playing Organic Craps...bought in for $160....lost it all.

*Day 3 playing Organic Craps...bought in for $160....down to $30....left with $200.

*This was all done using $5 Pass Line, 2X Odds, Continuous Come Bets with 2X Odds.

I noticed Organic Craps Machine seems to be biased towards Horns through 3 days of playing; I informed new player about it on Day 3; player bought in for $200...bet $10 Horn on every single roll, Place Bets and bet BIG on the hardways, player left with $1,400 in 30 minutes.

DWM,

You are on the right track per what Craps players that play frequently advise me: After 3 shooters *that you bet on* 7-out consecutively, it's time to take a break from the table. I will start following this advice immediately....

Quote: CrapsForever

Craps is all about streaks and taking advantage of them.

Gambling is all about win and lose streaks.

The vast majority of streak lengths both win and lose are just 1 and 2 in length.

I say do not chase your losses.

I saw more players keep increasing their bets as they lost, losing their bankroll, while dealing Craps in real casinos last century.

Then when the long, say 24 roll hand finally appeared, there was no one left or they had no money left to bet other than one or two bets.
Pathetic.

That is how players lose their money over time.
Not from streaks or trends, but from betting more as they lose and not having much to bet as they win.

The biggest winners that stick out in my mind from all my years of dealing Dice were the ones that just played very boring. line with odds and maybe one or two more bets. As the lost, they just kept making the same bets or lower bets.
As they won, they slowly increased their bets.
They were the biggest session winners.

The action players, BIG place bettors, always loud and always first to bust out,
swearing and spitting poop (my new word) all over the casino seemed to miss the real good hands that came around. They consistantly over bet their bankrolls.

If you believe in streaks, do not increase your bets in a losing streak
increase in a winning streak.
Trick is... when will the streak end. Can you predict it!

Do not simulate this in WinCraps... it will show over a period of time it really makes no difference
unless you have a big profit after a long winning streak and stop gambling for the rest of your life.

Like those in AC with Grandma having a 154 roll hand.
They did not really win that much for that many rolls.
I hope they never play again.
They end up as winners.