Is there such a thing as a "return" on a craps game?

Is there such a thing as a "return" on a craps game?

Help me out here guys as I have a battle raging over on my website. Video poker games such as jacks or better have a stated theoretical "return" based on the pay table, expert play, over the long term, etc.

Is there a theoretical return playing the game of craps? I say no. I know there is a house edge or advantage on every bet (odds excluded) but how can you possibly figure an expected or theoretical return? Can you even figure a theoretcial return only on a passline bet?

The key word here is "return" and not edge or house advantage.

thanks.

Yes; the return and the house edge express the same thing in a different way.

In video poker, a loss is a "payoff" of zero. In craps, a loss is a "payoff" of -1. The reason being, when you place your bet in video poker, it's presumed lost. Anything won back is a "win" even if it is the same amount as what you bet. On a table game, the bet isn't lost until it has been scooped up by the dealer. (I think this is why, anyway.)

So in the case of the pass line in craps, the house edge is 1.4141%; the return could be stated as either -0.014141, which in the "video poker format" is 98.5859%. That is without incorporating odds into the equation (i.e. 0x odds).

You could do the same thing with video poker (decrease all payoffs by 1) and come up with a return of -0.004561 which, when you add 1 to it, is 99.5439%.

Or you could treat a loss in craps as a payoff of zero, and a win as a payoff of 2, which yields 98.5859% return. Subtract 1 and you get the -0.014141.

I'm not quite sure of what your question is but all casinos know what their craps tables return each year and can figure out how they stand with various averages.
So while you might not be able to derive a per bet or per roll figure, you can sure go to the Count Rooms and get a figure.

If you consider the pass / odds a completely separate game and not one of the same, you can have the odds be a 100% return and completely ignore them. I feel I'm not fully understanding the question, aren't return/edge(including win/lose/tie) one of the same? Of course it would be much more difficult in craps to calculate any kind of a "session" but an infinite theoretical return should be straight forward.

Sure. Just a different way of stating results.

I see the player's return as 100% + house edge.

pass line with no odds HE is -7/495

Then the player's return would be 488/495 (0.98585...)

A simulation shows the same result.
No. Sessions simulated = 100000
Session Bankroll . . . = 1000.00
Max. Decisions to quit = 1000
Avg. Total amount bet . = 1000.00
Avg (mean) end bankroll = 985.92

985.92 / 1000.00

added:
JB's reply is a good one.

count the lost bets as 0 and the wins as 2.
The bet and the winnings are returned

Avg. No. games won . . = 492.96 *2 = 985.92
Avg. No. games lost . . = 507.04 * 0 = 0

I see it this way, and tell me just how wrong I am:

1. Problem one. In craps a pass line or don't pass bet will either have a return of 100% (a win) or zero percent (a loss). The house is more likely to win each bet with an edge of about 1.4%.

2. Problem two. In video poker there is a wide range of payoffs for a single bet. You could double your money with two pair, triple your money with 3oak, hit quads, hit a royal, hit a flush, etc. You can over a lifetime figure the chances of hitting those pays (1/40,000 for a royal which contributes about 2% return to a video poker game). Can you make similar calculations for bets on a craps table when players are not making uniform bets? I might place all of the numbers while someone else might place just the 6,8. I might not bet the hardways, while another player bets the hardways and the horn. So, while the universe of betting and payoffs is uniform for video poker allowing for figuring the return, the universe of betting in craps is not.

3. I have never heard anyone refer to craps as a game with a "return." I have only heard craps referred to as a game with a house advantage or edge, except for the odds which has no house advantage.

4. Is "return" the same as "house advantage" or "edge"? Or is return what you can expect to get back from your long term, expert play, while "edge" or "house advantage" is the likelihood that the house will win (since there is no bet with the edge going to the player)?

Quote: AlanMendelson

1. Problem one. In craps a pass line or don't pass bet will either have a return of 100% (a win) or zero percent (a loss). The house is more likely to win each bet with an edge of about 1.4%.

It's actually a return of 200% if you win; you get your bet back first (100%) plus an equal amount on top of it (another 100%) = 200%.

Chance of winning = (200% * 244/495) + (0% * 251/495) = 98.5859% return

Quote: AlanMendelson

2. Problem two. In video poker there is a wide range of payoffs for a single bet. You could double your money with two pair, triple your money with 3oak, hit quads, hit a royal, hit a flush, etc. You can over a lifetime figure the chances of hitting those pays (1/40,000 for a royal which contributes about 2% return to a video poker game). Can you make similar calculations for bets on a craps table when players are not making uniform bets? I might place all of the numbers while someone else might place just the 6,8. I might not bet the hardways, while another player bets the hardways and the horn. So, while the universe of betting and payoffs is uniform for video poker allowing for figuring the return, the universe of betting in craps is not.

You could, but it could get messy. If I were to do the math on that, I would treat all of the individual bets as a fraction of a single larger bet, and then calculate each possible outcome individually, such that the results would look similar to a video poker game's results.

Quote: AlanMendelson

3. I have never heard anyone refer to craps as a game with a "return." I have only heard craps referred to as a game with a house advantage or edge, except for the odds which has no house advantage.

Again, it's just a different way to express the house edge. 9/6 Jacks or Better has a house edge of 0.4561% (with proper strategy). It's the same thing as saying it returns 99.5439%.

Quote: AlanMendelson

4. Is "return" the same as "house advantage" or "edge"? Or is return what you can expect to get back from your long term, expert play, while "edge" or "house advantage" is the likelihood that the house will win (since there is no bet with the edge going to the player)?

Return and house edge are like two sides of the same coin. They do not refer to the likelihood of the house winning, but do refer to the long-term amount the house can expect to win from a bet's initial wagers over the course of eternity.

100% - return = house edge
100% - house edge = return

thank you for the reply.

so since there is no universal bet in craps (different bets, different odds, hardways, horn, field, differnt place bets, etc) you cannot come up with a universal "return" for playing craps. and each "return" will vary by the player, by their bets, by whether they press or not?

and one more question: if video poker is referred to with "return" why isn't "return" used to refer to craps? someone, somewhere along the line, had to decide that, no?

Quote: JB

In video poker, a loss is a "payoff" of zero. In craps, a loss is a "payoff" of -1. The reason being, when you place your bet in video poker, it's presumed lost. Anything won back is a "win" even if it is the same amount as what you bet. On a table game, the bet isn't lost until it has been scooped up by the dealer. (I think this is why, anyway.)

I've always thought of it this way: With slots, the bet is not "presumed lost" but merely taken immediately. Any winnings are paid with different money. This is easier to understand if you think about older machines that don't have a credit meter. You put your coin in. If you win, even if it's a 1:1 push, you do not get your original coin back.

This same logic applies to certain table games side bets like Let It Ride and Caribean Stud where the dealer takes your side bet chip before play begins. If you win, you are paid, but don't necessarily get your original chip back.

In these types of games, the payoffs should all be phrased as "x FOR 1". Conversely, all other table games bets, where your original chips are returned (or more likely, remain on the layout in action for the next hand), the payout should be expressed as "x TO 1".

The fact that so many casinos, particularly on a craps table, have the payouts using "for" terminology doesn't make it right. It just leads to confusion and slows the game down whever there's a new player. You kinda wonder why these same casinos show the FireBet payout as 999 to 1 etc, when in reality it's 1,000 FOR 1 etc.


It also makes you wonder why some marketing guy doesn't advertise BlackJack payouts of 5 for 2.
Of course, the reality is, the ad would say 11 for 5!

Quote: AlanMendelson

so since there is no universal bet in craps (different bets, different odds, hardways, horn, field, differnt place bets, etc) you cannot come up with a universal "return" for playing craps. and each "return" will vary by the player, by their bets, by whether they press or not?

Craps first started out as just a pass line bet.
Either it wins or it does not after a sequence of rolls.
That is quite universal. One bet and one payoff.

All the other bets have been added to the basic game over the years.

One can easily take all the single bets that can be made on a Craps table and get the weighted house edge for all the bets.
But why?
That would only apply to one that makes all the bets every roll.

In VP, one makes only one type of wager.
First, # of credits bet, then hit deal
It is all the different payouts that point to the players return from that one wager.

The field bet or a horn bet could fall into that category.
One bet with different payoffs.

IMO, Not really a concept that needs to be hotly debated.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

The fact that so many casinos, particularly on a craps table, have the payouts using "for" terminology doesn't make it right. It just leads to confusion and slows the game down whever there's a new player. You kinda wonder why these same casinos show the FireBet payout as 999 to 1 etc, when in reality it's 1,000 FOR 1 etc.

The "for 1" and "to 1" has been around for almost ever.
It is not really a deceiving terminology.
Depends on what you think "is" is :)

As pointed out in an earlier post, "for 1"
it just means "and down" the bet is to be considered a one roll bet not to be left up.

Google "Reno Layout"

In Reno they started the "to 1" layouts as the major popular layout so the bet would be assumed to be left up to win again.

So a $1 any craps bet IS paid 7 to 1 ($7 payoff and $1 new bet)
unless the player does not want to make another bet, then it becomes 8 for 1 ($8 payoff and NO new bet).
Now one can see the difference between 31 for 1 and 30 for 1.

The Reno layout, BTW has NO don't come box.
The don't pass/don't come box is now between the field and the come.
For Game protection for those dice hawking dealers and don't pass cheaters.

Quote: 7craps

As pointed out in an earlier post, "for 1"
it just means "and down" the bet is to be considered a one roll bet not to be left up.

I understand that was the intention, but all too often, the inside bets on a craps table use "for" terminology, and despite this, the bet IS left up, making the payout seem short, causing newbies to delay the game when they ask about it.

Conversely, this is ony of my complaints about many craps simulators. It DOES take the bet down, even though I'd prefer it stay up. (This may apply to automated craps games as well.)

Quote: DJTeddyBear

making the payout seem short, causing newbies to delay the game when they ask about it.

I agree.
That is the fault of the Dealer or Stick.
easy to just say on a hard6
10 for 1 payoff, the bet pays 9, as you hand it off ($9)
and your 10 is right here to win, the $1 still on the hard6.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Conversely, this is ony of my complaints about many craps simulators. It DOES take the bet down, even though I'd prefer it stay up. (This may apply to automated craps games as well.)

The prop bets are a one roll bet. But they are a "service" bet.
The player can not make them by themselves as with the Field bet.

A winning field bet can win and remain there without the player doing anything because it is a "self-service" bet.

So the simulators are just following the rules of the game...
except you place all the bets yourself, like Rapid Craps and Shoot to Win Craps machines.

Quote: 7craps

Google "Reno Layout"

actually that didnt come up so readily as all that, but I did find the below

http://www.casinocom.com/craps_layouts.htm

Quote: DJTeddyBear

I've always thought of it this way: With slots, the bet is not "presumed lost" but merely taken immediately.

That's a better way of wording it than what I came up with. I was going to mention something about the "to 1" versus "for 1" payoffs, but didn't end up doing so.

Quote: AlanMendelson

and one more question: if video poker is referred to with "return" why isn't "return" used to refer to craps? someone, somewhere along the line, had to decide that, no?

I think the "return" figure for slots originated in advertising -- "Our slots give a 98.94% return!" It is a way for a casino to distinguish it's slot play over others offering a lower return.

Advertising the return in craps probably wouldn't be very effective.

In the first place, the return is identical on come bets on every craps table, so no casino can promote a return advantage over another with this "main bet." Of course, the maximum odds bet allowed varies from one house to the next, which certainly affects the return. However, it is much simpler and effective to promote a max odds bet at "10x odds!", rather than proclaiming: "With our maximum allowed odds bet, the return on come bets is 99.816%!"

Secondly, is it worth it for casinos to advertise the variety of returns for all of the non-come bets? The non-come bets that differ between casinos are usually field bets (triple 2 or 12, or both) lay/buy vig methods and prop/hop payoffs. So, an advertisement of such bets would be a complex list.

Also, one wonders how many craps players would care to read through such information, and, if they did, one wonders how they would react upon seeing the lousy returns on some of the prop bets (88.89% on a 31-to-1 twelve bet).

Furthermore, as with the come bets, some of the non-come bets have identical returns at every casino, so there is no possible distinction to promote with those bets.

Quote:

I think the "return" figure for slots originated in advertising

If so, it's the Orwellian tactic then. 'Return' is one thing to remark about, 'house edge' quite another.

I think what makes a difference is the that the Come-Out roll has a certain "House Edge" or payout, and if a point is rolled, Free Odds can alter this payout.

Joe Plays at a 5x Casino betting $6 on the Pass line and $1 on Craps. The risk is $6 x -0.0141 + $1 x -0.1111 or -0.1957 / $7 = about -2.8% on the Come-Out.
A point is rolled, call it 8. Joe puts $30 Free Odds behind the Pass line: the Craps bet lost.
Joe now has a risk of $36 x -0.00326 + $1 x -0.11111 or -0.22847 / $37 = -0.62%

Joe's Return on the Come-Out is about 97.2%, and about 99.38% thereafter. Since the 5x Casino allows 5x behind any point, the average H.A. is the stated 0.326%.
I'm going to presume that the increase in vigorish from 19.6c to 22.85c is due to this averaging: it should still be 19.6c or LESS based upon a 6 or 8 point roll.
Nonrtheless, the return increases when Free Odds are used, BUT one must hurdle the Come-Out, without such Free Odds.

Quote: AlanMendelson

so since there is no universal bet in craps (different bets, different odds, hardways, horn, field, differnt place bets, etc) you cannot come up with a universal "return" for playing craps. and each "return" will vary by the player, by their bets, by whether they press or not?

Doesn't the same thing happen in VP? I know for some of the more complex games experts may be able to play perfectly, but some people may choose to play a strategy that might be a bit easier to play but give up a small return.

You could even compare all the different VP games to all the different ways of playing craps. Passline only vs Passline + Place 6/8 could be considered the same as playing JoB vs Bonus Poker. The rules and payouts change in both and the return may change as well. When you say there isn't a standard return on craps because many people play it different, I would say there is no standard return on VP because there are 30+ different VP variations.

Quote: 7craps

The Reno layout, BTW has NO don't come box.
The don't pass/don't come box is now between the field and the come.
For Game protection for those dice hawking dealers and don't pass cheaters.

Actually, the only "Reno Layout" used in Reno...is used at Ascuaga's Nugget...probably because it's the same felt that was used SINCE 1955! LOL
FWIW: I always wondered why they didn't have a specific DC box...