Some questions~

Do casinos have the right to confiscate my winning chips or all the chips after they suspect I was counting cards? (Never happen to me, just curious.)

If I play a 1-40 betting spread which is very large, and it can make beautiful amount of money for me, but there is a high roller always betting big big money sits next to me. Am I still drawing heats? Or that player can be a good cover for me?

Why should card counters sit down, and play small bet to see the cards, why don't people wonging? Just stand behind the table, and find a good count to bet money, then stands behind the table again? If my maximum bet is 200 dollars, can I just wonging? Will the pit boss cares about poor players like me? because I don't want to loss little money slowly, and win a hand of big money to recover it. I only want to bet when I have the advantage.
Further, I think wonging can cover the bet spread. For example, if I seat, I bet 5 on +1 or less, bet 50 on +6 or more, then my spread is 1-10. If I stand, I can use flat bet, bet 40 on every +1 or more count. Every hand I play would have an advantage, so flat bet works.

Last question, what's the meaning of 1% advantage over the house. Does it mean my winning possible is 51% or 50.5%?
What EV does 51% of winning possible equal to?
If my winning chance is 51%, and I bet 100 times 100 dollars, should I mathematically expect to win 200 dollars after 100 times of betting?

Thanks a lot to read my post. I appreciate your answer~

I heard that pit boss are trained to seek out the big bet spread, but not the count. So I'm considered to stand playing and bet flat.

All these various deceptive techniques may or may not be required.
A casino can not confiscate chips w/o giving you a receipt and anytime they do this call for a Gaming Agent immediately.
A casino may or may not be paranoid about counters and be looking for bet spreaders.
If you are sitting next to a big bettor that is often camouflage enough.
Wonging in is thought to be obvious and many casinos prohibit mid shoe entry.

Remember what ever edge you think you have it evaporates the moment they tell you 'minimum bets only'.

Wonging in and betting $40 is not really "flat betting". In your scenario, it would be more accurate to say that you are spreading 0-40.
Imagine that you are a pit boss, wondering why is that guy just standing there most of the time, and then jumps in suddenly with a large bet, and wins more often than usual ... Hmmm ...

1% advantage means about 50.5% probability of winning, if the bet pays even money and you cannot push. In BJ, it is somewhat less for these two reasons. A hundred $100 bets is expected to win $100 with a 1% advantage. Or $200 (2%) if you win with 51% probability.

A 1% advantage does not necessarily mean that you win more often! It simply means that you win 1% of your total action. If your average bet is $100, you expect to win $1 for each hand played, over a large sample size. The reason why thinking about frequency of wins is less important than overall action is because you are raising your bet once you've identified a situation where it's more likely that you'll win. At the end of the day you'll win and lose about as much as everyone else, but when you win, you'll have much more money out on the felt, on average.

Also, questions like:

- Is it possible to play only with an advantage?
- Does a whale at my table increase heat, or decrease it?

And phrases like:

- 1-40 spread

Are the things that you should hear from more up-and-coming counters these days. This guy has his eyes on the ball.

Quote: LonesomeGambler

Are the things that you should hear from more up-and-coming counters these days. This guy has his eyes on the ball.

LG, at the risk of sounding sycophantic, I would just like to thank you for your reasoned, helpful approach to gambling questions posed on this board. They are invaluable, and well-written. Posts like yours make this forum one that at least I would gladly pay for.

You can never have too many compliments.

Thank you guys. The Answers really helped me to understand the game.

I just searched on the internet, and I found an EV formula:
Expected value (EV) = wager + (expected win ¨C expected loss)
According to this formula, I calculated what EV does 51% of winning possible equal to.

EV=1+[(0.51*1)-(0.49*1)]
EV=1.02

So positive 2% EV equals to 51% of winning possible, am I doing the correct calculation?

WangSanJose,

In your original post on this thread you asked:

Quote: WangSanJose

Last question, what's the meaning of 1% advantage over the house. Does it mean my winning possible is 51% or 50.5%?
What EV does 51% of winning possible equal to?
If my winning chance is 51%, and I bet 100 times 100 dollars, should I mathematically expect to win 200 dollars after 100 times of betting?

Later you stated:

Quote: WangSanJose

I just searched on the internet, and I found an EV formula:
Expected value (EV) = wager + (expected win ¨C expected loss)
According to this formula, I calculated what EV does 51% of winning possible equal to.

EV=1+[(0.51*1)-(0.49*1)]
EV=1.02

So positive 2% EV equals to 51% of winning possible, am I doing the correct calculation?

First of all, this calculation is incorrect. Consider a "coin flip" game, where the player bets $1 on each round. On heads the player wins $1 (and his $1 wager is returned, so his payout is 1 TO 1, generally written as "1:1", which is equal to 2 FOR 1), and on tails he loses his $1 wager. Suppose now that the player knows the coin is unbalanced, so that he has a 1% edge. If he plays 200 rounds, he then on average will win 101 flips, and lose 99 flips. Thus, his EV is calculated as follows:

EV = (expected win)/action = ($101 - $99)/$200 = +0.01 = +1%.

Thus, the player's probability of winning is, as you correctly guessed in your original post, 50.5%. That means his probability of losing is 100% - 50.5% = 49.5%, and thus his edge is 50.5% - 49.5% = 1%.

The problem here is that a round of BJ has many outcomes besides +1 and -1: it isn't like a "coin flip" game, where every wager either wins one or loses one. In fact, for a game allowing double after split (split to 4 hands maximum), which is almost always the rule for shoe games, the player could have a result for the round ranging from -8.5 bets (takes insurance and loses that, then splits to four hands, doubling each, and loses all) to +8 bets.

Thus, the EV for BJ is not equal to the probability of winning the bet. In fact, although a card counter may have an overall 1% edge, only VERY RARELY does his probability of winning the next round exceed 50%. Instead, the CC enjoys an edge because of the asymmetric nature of the rules: his BJ's are paid at 3:2, while the dealer's "win" only 1:1; the CC can split and double down, while the dealer cannot; the CC can vary his bets, betting more on "favorable" rounds and less (or nothing at all) on unfavorable rounds; and in some cases, the CC can surrender. Of course, these advantages are almost exactly counter-balanced by the other asymmetry of the game: if both the player and dealer bust, the player loses.

Consider a simple BJ-like game where the CC is playing one spot heads-up (and cannot spread to more hands, of course) and the next four cards will be an Ace and three X's in some unknown order. Clearly, the CC and the dealer have an equal probability of getting the BJ, but the CC enjoys a 25% edge over the house... do the calculation yourself. ;-)

I point all this out not to be pedantic (ok... not JUST to be pedantic!) but because new card counters are often confused by all this. In addition, some sidebets (like BJ Streak) have payouts based on the number of consecutive player "wins", which as we've seen is not equal to his edge.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Quote: teddys

LG, at the risk of sounding sycophantic, I would just like to thank you for your reasoned, helpful approach to gambling questions posed on this board. They are invaluable, and well-written. Posts like yours make this forum one that at least I would gladly pay for.

You can never have too many compliments.

Thank you for the kind words! I've learned a lot from message boards over the years, and I'm happy to return the favor with information that may potentially be of use, especially to new players.

Quote: teddys

LG, at the risk of sounding sycophantic, I would just like to thank you for your reasoned, helpful approach to gambling questions posed on this board. They are invaluable, and well-written.

I strongly second this. I know Lonesome Gambler from a number of sites that we both participate at. He is not only extremely knowledgeable about what he speaks and an asset to any site that he participates in but a class act as well. Always respectful and willing to help.

I did want to add one thought about the original poster's thoughts on cover from a large better at your table. This does not provide as much cover as you might expect. That large better, even if not counting, nor spreading, is most likely drawing attention and someone is keeping an eye on him. If they are watching him, they are watching your table and may notice your betting patterns when they otherwise would not. If you want to play in the shadow of a large better for cover purposes, play at the next table or other side of the pit. Especially in these times when surveillance departments have cut back.

KJ, always a pleasure! Your point about big bettors at the table is exactly one of the lessons that I learned as a result of helpful message board posters. I hesitate to add any more to that particular discussion, but I think that the OP is at least thinking in the right direction. Thinking about the right issues—which includes exploring as many sides to the issue as possible—is the first step to improving your skill.

Incidentally, the person who first introduced the topic of "playing in the shade" to me was a poster on our alma mater site who I believe was permanently banned at least once, for inflammatory comments/constant flame wars. I find it a bit ironic (and telling) that most of the important nuggets of info that I gleaned from the boards back in the day came from the three most polarizing posters that I can think of. There's a lesson there!

Quote: WangSanJose

Do casinos have the right to confiscate my winning chips or all the chips after they suspect I was counting cards? (Never happen to me, just curious.)

If I play a 1-40 betting spread which is very large, and it can make beautiful amount of money for me, but there is a high roller always betting big big money sits next to me. Am I still drawing heats? Or that player can be a good cover for me?

Why should card counters sit down, and play small bet to see the cards, why don't people wonging? Just stand behind the table, and find a good count to bet money, then stands behind the table again? If my maximum bet is 200 dollars, can I just wonging? Will the pit boss cares about poor players like me? because I don't want to loss little money slowly, and win a hand of big money to recover it. I only want to bet when I have the advantage.
Further, I think wonging can cover the bet spread. For example, if I seat, I bet 5 on +1 or less, bet 50 on +6 or more, then my spread is 1-10. If I stand, I can use flat bet, bet 40 on every +1 or more count. Every hand I play would have an advantage, so flat bet works.

Last question, what's the meaning of 1% advantage over the house. Does it mean my winning possible is 51% or 50.5%?
What EV does 51% of winning possible equal to?
If my winning chance is 51%, and I bet 100 times 100 dollars, should I mathematically expect to win 200 dollars after 100 times of betting?

Thanks a lot to read my post. I appreciate your answer~

Casinos in the US cannot confiscate your winninings. If you play internationally in places with little regulation, it can happen but very rare.

Wonnging: I agree with you. If you play only $40, then one approach is the wonging you described. Or use a very small spread of say $30 for TC 2-3, and $60 for TC 4 and over . But is becomes quite obvious if you overdo it especially in an empty casino. In a busy casino is more easy to get away with especially of you move from table to table. You watch for say 2 decks if the count does not get positive you move to another table and and after a few tables in another pit.
Or you can combine methods. Play for 0.5 hour wonging and then for 0.5 play all in a different table. The other big begative is the standing. For recreational low stakes counters who want to both enjoy their time and make some money on the side, it is a lot of work standing and moving from table to table to make $10 an hour.

As LonesomeGambler said BJ is not a coin toss game so the 50.5% Win 49.5% Loss for 1% advantage does not hold for BJ. There are BJ paying 3:2, doubles splits (+2,-2), surrender (-0.5) etc. But neither the dealar nor the player ever get even close to 50% Win or 50% lose whatever the count is. The reason being the push (+0). If I remember correctly there is push more than 10% of the time and the win and loss % are around 42%-45%.
Also have in mind that the Basic Startegy does not maximize the Probability of winning but the Ev. Basic strategy some times reduce the Probability of winning. For example Hit 9 v 6 has a higher Probability of winning than Double 9 v 6 because if you get a 2 you can hit again but Double has higher Ev because even though you win less ofthen you win double the amount.

Quote: WangSanJose

Do casinos have the right to confiscate my winning chips or all the chips after they suspect I was counting cards? (Never happen to me, just curious.)

I am not sure they have the right to do so.
but I believe they can do so even if for no reason.

They don't have the "right" to do so, but casinos will absolutely confiscate cheques if they think they can leverage it against you to get information (i.e., they want your SSN or a copy of your DL). MGM casinos in Vegas are notorious for this, but it happens everywhere.