always hitting 12/never hitting 16
Do they know something we don't ? Is this a viable strategy .
Quote: DonPedroI have talked to many people who abide by this, many of them dealers.
Do they know something we don't ? Is this a viable strategy .
They know how to lose money faster...
Heres three more... Don't do it.
winmonkeyspit gets a +1.
Quote: DonPedroDo they know something we don't ? Is this a viable strategy .
No.
Basic Strategy is not brain surgery. It is simply a matter of setting out every possible outcome (possibly thousands) and counting the times you win and the time you lose. You go with the decision which results in more wins than losses.
I have a hard time hitting on 16 - UNLESS the dealer is showing an ace! Then I hit.Quote: FourFiveFace...but I always cringe when people stay against an ace.
I look at it this way: If a dealer has an ace, he has TWO chances to get between 17 and 21, so if I can't surrender, I'm hitting 16!
I've started to think the percentage difference between hitting 16 v. staying is miniscule. Or not splitting hands you're supposed to, or not doubling soft hands you're supposed to. Our BJ games carry a HA of 0.6%, but my boss told me once they pull in more like 1.5% due to common bad plays. How much does always taking even money on BJ v. Ace raise the house edge? Or always staying on soft 18?
Quote: ewjones080
I've started to think the percentage difference between hitting 16 v. staying is miniscule.
Indeed.
Quote:Or not splitting hands you're supposed to, or not doubling soft hands you're supposed to.
These are (much) larger. And they add up.
Quote:How much does always taking even money on BJ v. Ace raise the house edge?
About 0.03%
Quote:Or always staying on soft 18?
About 0.02%
What I don't understand is why people want to do stupid things like not doubling 11 v 10, standing on 16 against 7-9, and not doubling soft 18 when appropriate. What process makes you think that is the better idea that should be employed over mathematically sound ideas? Why is the stupid decision the default one and the correct decision the thing that must be justified?
Quote: bbvk05Not hitting a 16 against a 10 is miniscule in value. Not hitting a 16 against a 7, 8, 9, on the other hand, has more of an effect. A lot of people will stay on 16 vs a dealer 7, which is asinine.
What I don't understand is why people want to do stupid things like not doubling 11 v 10, standing on 16 against 7-9, and not doubling soft 18 when appropriate. What process makes you think that is the better idea that should be employed over mathematically sound ideas? Why is the stupid decision the default one and the correct decision the thing that must be justified?
To the uninitiated some plays are counterintuitive. Add to that poor advice over the years from players and dealers alike. Others just want to play for recreation and have no desire to learn basic strategy. They're still playing with less house edge than other games.
Embrace all of these players because they're the ones paying the AP's "salary".
Quote: bbvk05What process makes you think that is the better idea that should be employed over mathematically sound ideas?
For most people the fun of gambling is synonymous with getting a lucky hunch, and following your fortune.
If the "inner voice" tells you to stand, that's reason enough. And whatever you do, you can't do worse than betting on that lucky number in roulette.
Unless you are an AP, any gambling is "stupid" (or, better said, irrational). Basic Strategy does not make it rational. It helps you lose less, but you will still lose, so what's the point?
Quote: GoNavyBeatArmyJust hit the damn thing and be done with it. You're not going to win with 16. If you can't surrender it, hit it against the face card as a matter of course.... unless you're counting.
There are exceptions to basic strategy. 16 vs. 10 in 2 to 8 decks where you got to 16 with 3 or more cards means you should stand.
Why? I don't know the mathematical explanation, but I'd guess that if you got to 16 with 3 or more cards it must have included smaller cards which means there is relatively more 10's in the deck now.
Basic Strategy Exceptions
--helpmespock
Quote: helpmespockThere are exceptions to basic strategy. 16 vs. 10 in 2 to 8 decks where you got to 16 with 3 or more cards means you should stand.
Why? I don't know the mathematical explanation, but I'd guess that if you got to 16 with 3 or more cards it must have included smaller cards which means there is relatively more 10's in the deck now.
Consider an infinite deck a player 16 against a dealer 10. Hitting versus standing will win one more time out of 1667 times this setup happens. So assuming 100 hands per hour, 9 hours a day, 7 days per week, you would one time more in a year of play.
With a difference so minor, it is not surprising that the removal of a few small cards which are beneficial to the player, would shift the best decision from "hit" to "stand".
Quote: GoNavyBeatArmyJust hit the damn thing and be done with it. You're not going to win with 16. If you can't surrender it, hit it against the face card as a matter of course.... unless you're counting.
sorry i know this is old thread, butt i was just browsing around and when i read this, i giggled! soo funny! "just hit the damn thing and be done with it"!! ha ha...ya sometimes at the table, there are people who ponder and take fornever whether they want to hit, stand surrender etc and i'm thinking "omgggg just hit!!!"
there are many times at tables, when i get 16 and i automatically hit (because i always hit when dealer shows face or 7 and above) and the ppl are like noooo! and then i get a 4 or 5~
Quote: juiciejenniesorry i know this is old thread, butt i was just browsing around and when i read this, i giggled! soo funny! "just hit the damn thing and be done with it"!! ha ha...ya sometimes at the table, there are people who ponder and take fornever whether they want to hit, stand surrender etc and i'm thinking "omgggg just hit!!!"
there are many times at tables, when i get 16 and i automatically hit (because i always hit when dealer shows face or 7 and above) and the ppl are like noooo! and then i get a 4 or 5~
Does your casino allow surrender? Because it's better to surrender that 16 than hit it against a 9, 10, or Ace (but not against a smaller card!)
But good for you for hitting it instead of being scared and standing like so many players do.
Hitting 16 vs 7 is almost a no-brainer (I suspect a computer with perfect counting would stand about 1 in 100 pure guess). Hitting 16 vs 10 is nearly 50/50, but I always hit unless in the last hand (CSM) there were lots of 4s and 5s. Strangely I sometimes hit 12 vs 6 if I haven't seen an Ace for while (and seen an average to average+ number of 10s) (Dealer stands s17).
Quote: charliepatrickHitting 16 vs 7 is almost a no-brainer (I suspect a computer with perfect counting would stand about 1 in 100 pure guess).
Yup. Funnily enough I recently had a dealer told me that I should stand on 16 vs 7 because he only has 2 cards (10 or A) that he won't draw to -- anything else in the hole and he is drawing, so I should give him a chance to bust. The dealer was a nice guy but, like most dealers, had no clue how to play.
Brain-teaser: Explain (in simple english) why hitting a 16 vs 10 is a close play, but 16 vs 7 is not close. After all, the dealer is much more likely to bust with a 7 than a 10, and when you stand on 16 you are hoping for the dealer to bust.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceDoes your casino allow surrender? Because it's better to surrender that 16 than hit it against a 9, 10, or Ace (but not against a smaller card!)
But good for you for hitting it instead of being scared and standing like so many players do.
ya...i've seen people stay on soft 17 w/ dealer showing a low card..i'm like wtffffff
or, people staying when they have soft 14-17 when dealer showing a high card...hummm
and i thought about it and i thought humm good point; but idk! i still always hit 16s and never take insurance etc~
Quote: juiciejennieya...i've seen people stay on soft 17 w/ dealer showing a low card..i'm like wtffffff
or, people staying when they have soft 14-17 when dealer showing a high card...hummm
Yeah, when I see people stand on a soft 16 or below I just kind of wonder what they are thinking.
You seem to have a pretty good grasp of basic strategy. Stay away from the sucker side bets (I know you love the pair square, but try to resist!), and stay away from the $1 commission games, and I think you will do pretty well.
If you learned to count cards you could probably win a lot of money. Casinos are generally pretty sexist... they will never suspect you of counting in a million years. You don't even need an act... your act is that you look good. Just smile, look innocent, and shrug, and you can get away with whatever you want.
(Yes, I'm jealous...)
Quote: juiciejennieoh and my friend told me (after discussing why i always hit on 16, but never take insurance), he said since u never take insurance, you're "assuming/thinking/hoping/betting" that dealer doesn't have a face/10 card under his Ace....but then why do you hit on 16 when dealer is showing a face/10 card; u cannot always assume/think dealer has a high card under his first high card.
and i thought about it and i thought humm good point; but idk! i still always hit 16s and never take insurance etc~
Don't worry, you are doing the right thing.
It's not about whether you think that the dealer has a 10 or not; it's about whether you are getting paid enough when the dealer does have a 10. Less than a third of the cards are 10s, but insurance pays only 2:1 -- that's why you don't take it. If insurance paid 3:1 you would take it every time!
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceYeah, when I see people stand on a soft 16 or below I just kind of wonder what they are thinking.
You seem to have a pretty good grasp of basic strategy. Stay away from the sucker side bets (I know you love the pair square, but try to resist!), and stay away from the $1 commission games, and I think you will do pretty well.
If you learned to count cards you could probably win a lot of money. Casinos are generally pretty sexist... they will never suspect you of counting in a million years. You don't even need an act... your act is that you look good. Just smile, look innocent, and shrug, and you can get away with whatever you want.
(Yes, I'm jealous...)
ya...but sometimes i'm a chicken player; i know its logical etc to double when u get 9, 10 and when dealer has a low card..but i don't double i just hit because most of the times i lose idk why!! omg the worst was when i got 2 ACES, and of course i split (had bet $75 so total of $150) and i/the whole table woulda won if that puto guy at last seat didn't hit his 12 (he took the dealer's bust card); i had pretty good 2 hands, a 20 and 19!!! dealer was showing a 5, then turned a face card..and woulda busted but instead next card dealer got was a 6...f**k!!!!! lost $150, all cuz that douchebag who bet $5 hit his 12.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceYeah, when I see people stand on a soft 16 or below I just kind of wonder what they are thinking.
You seem to have a pretty good grasp of basic strategy. Stay away from the sucker side bets (I know you love the pair square, but try to resist!), and stay away from the $1 commission games, and I think you will do pretty well.
If you learned to count cards you could probably win a lot of money. Casinos are generally pretty sexist... they will never suspect you of counting in a million years. You don't even need an act... your act is that you look good. Just smile, look innocent, and shrug, and you can get away with whatever you want.
(Yes, I'm jealous...)
who is willing to teach me!!~ or should/can i just learn myself?
Quote: juiciejennieya...but sometimes i'm a chicken player; i know its logical etc to double when u get 9, 10 and when dealer has a low card..but i don't double i just hit because most of the times i lose idk why!!
Ok, that's one thing that you need to get over. If the correct play is to double, just double. It's just like hitting the 16. Just do it. Same with splits.
One thing you need to remember is that you lose most of your hands in blackjack (this is because if both you and the dealer bust, you lose!) So you need to make up for this somehow. The way that you make up for it is by splitting and doubling when it's right to do so. So even though you lose more often than you win, you have more bets out on your wins.
Just the other day I was playing and the dealer had an ace up. He flipped his hole card for an ace in the hole. So he had A, A. He drew a face card, and another face card for 22 and a bust. I said "it's a good thing that you aren't allowed to split!"
The point is, the fact that you are allowed to split and double, and the dealer isn't, is a big plus for you. You need to take advantage of it.
Quote:omg the worst was when i got 2 ACES, and of course i split (had bet $75 so total of $150) and i/the whole table woulda won if that puto guy at last seat didn't hit his 12 (he took the dealer's bust card); i had pretty good 2 hands, a 20 and 19!!! dealer was showing a 5, then turned a face card..and woulda busted but instead next card dealer got was a 6...f**k!!!!! lost $150, all cuz that douchebag who bet $5 hit his 12.
Hitting a 12 against a 5 is obviously wrong, but don't let that get to you too much. It's true that it hurt you in this case, but if he makes a bad play it is just as likely to help you as it is to hurt you (he might have taken a small card, and made the dealer bust).
In the end the cards are in some random order so don't worry about this. Just play your hand well and let the cards fall where they may.
Quote: juiciejenniewho is willing to teach me!!~ or should/can i just learn myself?
It's not hard to learn but first you need to master basic strategy. You need to double those hands where you are supposed to double, or card counting won't help you.
hitting 12 is interesting. you should hit 12 vs dealer's 2 or 3 but stand 4-6 and hit 7+.
But people go cross eyed if you hit.
Quote: UTHfanJust rechecked the 4+deck strategy:
hitting 12 is interesting. you should hit 12 vs dealer's 2 or 3 but stand 4-6 and hit 7+.
But people go cross eyed if you hit.
Yeah of course. You hit until you get to 13 against a 2 or 3. But a 5 is very different from a 2 or 3.
Simple. With a 7-up there is quite a good chance the dealer gets 17, so any player totals of 18+ are better than evens to win, thus if you're lucky and don't bust you're likely to be favourite. A similar, but diluted, logic applies to 8-up and 9-up. With a 10-up the lower totals aren't so valuable, only 20s and 21s are clear favourite (UK), so the rewards of being lucky aren't so great; this makes it a closer call. (That's also why the count of 4s and 5s affect your decision so much, as they reduce the chances of you getting 20 or 21.)Quote: AxiomOfChoiceBrain-teaser: Explain (in simple english) why hitting a 16 vs 10 is a close play, but 16 vs 7 is not close.
Quote: helpmespockThere are exceptions to basic strategy. 16 vs. 10 in 2 to 8 decks where you got to 16 with 3 or more cards means you should stand.
Why? I don't know the mathematical explanation, but I'd guess that if you got to 16 with 3 or more cards it must have included smaller cards which means there is relatively more 10's in the deck now.
Basic Strategy Exceptions
--helpmespock
Stand on a 3-card 16 vs. dealer 10 in a 4+ deck game is the best play if you want the simplicity of a single rule. However, The Wizard did research on this which he presented here, a ways down the page:
Ask the Wizard: Blackjack - Probability
As the table shows, stand is the best play in 9 our of the 16 possible hands. If you want the optimal play for all 16 hands I suggest this rule:
Stand, hitting only when you have either a 6 or 10 but no 5 in either case.
You can feel all warm and fuzzy about making the optimal play, but that's about all the benefit you will get.
Quote: charliepatrickSimple. With a 7-up there is quite a good chance the dealer gets 17, so any player totals of 18+ are better than evens to win, thus if you're lucky and don't bust you're likely to be favourite. A similar, but diluted, logic applies to 8-up and 9-up. With a 10-up the lower totals aren't so valuable, only 20s and 21s are clear favourite (UK), so the rewards of being lucky aren't so great; this makes it a closer call. (That's also why the count of 4s and 5s affect your decision so much, as they reduce the chances of you getting 20 or 21.)
Yeah, ok, this is basically what I was thinking.
I would have said, if you hit and don't bust, you are more likely to win, so the rewards for hitting are greater. Same thing.
Here's another one:
When counting cards, and contemplating hitting a 14 v T, the most important card in the deck that will affect your decision, by far, is the 7. With a surplus of 7s you should hit, and with a deficit of 7s you should stand. IIRC (and I don't have the indices handy so this is from memory) the 7 is worth 3x as much as any other card while making this decision. Why? (it's not just because it gives you 21 -- 20 is a powerful hand and 6's aren't anywhere near as important in this decision). What is unique about the 7 when contemplating a 14vT decision?
(I don't think that these questions are THAT difficult, but they require you to think about the game a bit, perhaps in a slightly different way than usual, so I like them. Blindly following a basic strategy chart is fine and all, but I think that there is value in understanding the game as well, if for no other reason that to identify and exploit unexpected profitable situations)
Other questions I like:
- Explain the cause of the cut card effect in simple English.
- Explain the cause of the floating advantage in simple English (I'm not sure I have a good answer for this one)
- Explain why the house edge against a basic strategy player is increased as more decks are added (probably related to the previous question -- again, I'm not sure I have a good answer)
Quote: DonPedroI have talked to many people who abide by this, many of them dealers.
Do they know something we don't ? Is this a viable strategy .
Always hitting a 12 makes sense, in a way, because you are more likely to improve your hand than to bust. You cannot know this is wrong without either just trusting ploppy logic, or doing a little research. It is wrong, especially against a 5 or 6, but overall has very little effect. Never do I see dealers advise hitting a 12 when it is incorrect, though I have heard some talk about their own personal strategy when they play which includes doubling a 12. Dealers are generally poor players with little knowledge.
I see dealers often making no distinction between a 16 v. 10 and 16 v. 7, and advising consistency on 16s rather than to hit or stand. Failure to hit a 16 v. 7 is very detrimental. It needs to be hit, much more so than 16 v. A--although this hand should also be hit (assuming surrender is unavailable). A 16 v. 10 is the only hand that you can choose to stand. While technically a hit, it is the closest/most inconsequential play in the game (assuming surrender is unavailable).
This strategy's main flaw is its failure to hit 16 v. 7 and 8.
Quote: ewjones080I've always wondered how much bad plays affect house edge. I always try to play by the book, of course I'm not much of BJ player, so I haven't memorized BS.
I've started to think the percentage difference between hitting 16 v. staying is miniscule. Or not splitting hands you're supposed to, or not doubling soft hands you're supposed to. Our BJ games carry a HA of 0.6%, but my boss told me once they pull in more like 1.5% due to common bad plays. How much does always taking even money on BJ v. Ace raise the house edge? Or always staying on soft 18?
Taking even money raises the house edge by about .01%. The effect of staying on Soft 18 is negligible. Not much. Failure to double 11 v. 10: .8%.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceYup. Funnily enough I recently had a dealer told me that I should stand on 16 vs 7 because he only has 2 cards (10 or A) that he won't draw to -- anything else in the hole and he is drawing, so I should give him a chance to bust. The dealer was a nice guy but, like most dealers, had no clue how to play.
Brain-teaser: Explain (in simple english) why hitting a 16 vs 10 is a close play, but 16 vs 7 is not close. After all, the dealer is much more likely to bust with a 7 than a 10, and when you stand on 16 you are hoping for the dealer to bust.
Dealer is not much more likely to bust a 7 than a 10. He is about 3% percent more likely to bust. People often stand against 7, but not against 10, because they decide the 7 is a weaker card and apply that irrelevant information, treating the 7 as a quasi-bust card.
Any card you take that does not bust you, against a 7, makes you more likely to win than to lose, with the exception of the Ace (where you are more likely to lose than win, but more likely to push or win than to lose). Not busting against a 10, you are still more likely to lose; getting a 3 here puts you in only slightly better position than getting an Ace against the 7, meaning it is close to 15% worse to stand against 7 than 10.
Quote: 1BBWow. This thread is 9 months old. I'm so glad that the interest in blackjack is picking up.
All the craps players were on holiday. ;-)
Quote: RaleighCrapsAll the craps players were on holiday. ;-)
Maybe they all finally ran out of money.
