An underground BJ game

So tonight I went to an underground casino that was run in some guy's house. He usually runs an illegal raked poker game and he had this game to occupy the players while they wait for a poker seat. The players are usually very very bad, and lose their ass off at this BJ game. And the guy who runs the BJ game does not understand the math or rules behind BJ; he just thinks the house always wins.

He was running a single deck game with the following rules: BJ pays 3-2, unlimited doubles (meaning you could double down again after you double, like you double on 9, you could then double again if you got a 2, because now your score was 11, so now you have 4 bets out), double on any number of cards, stand on all 17s, resplit aces, split aces pays 3-2 like a BJ, double after split with the doubling and redouble rule as described. All cards face up.

I then complained that the game was too slow, so they agreed to deal all the way to the bottom and then reshuffle the discards to continue play. This sped up play and made everyone happy, especially me (and I later complained that this was bad for the players because more hands means players lose faster because house always win, but I couldn't help it because I'm a gambling degenerate).

All the players are very very bad. Very few players doubled and basic strat was a foreign concept.

I counted the hell out of the deck and used a very small spread, because the game naturally had a player advantage (and yes, I counted the aces and tens to make sure they were all there). On top of this, they used really old cards that had dents and damages that gave away the value of some of the cards. And, the dealer was not properly trained and would sometimes, though rarely, flash the hole card (one time, hilariously, he checked his hole card for BJ, and bent the card too much, and when it was my my turn, I could identify that it was the card because of the bend. I had a three card 13, and proclaimed that I felt lucky, and asked if I could double down now, he said yes, and gave me the 7 for a 20). The card reading gave me cover because it made my play look like donkish.

I emptied the tray twice before the owner came and said he couldn't cover any more bets (I had won about $15,000). He said he didn't have enough cash, so he gave me cash of 12,000 and chips to cover the rest. In order to prevent the game from being killed by the other players, I would encourage bad play by the other players; for example, when I would double and lose on a 10 or 11, I would by state that double down is one of the worst plays possible because you can't hit again, and every time I busted, I would loudly proclaim that my play is so stupid because the best play in BJ is to never bust, but I hit because I can't help but take risky gambles by hitting 16 against 17). Almost no one would double down, and when they saw me lose 4 units on a redouble, it made them even more fearful to double down! lol

Let's hope that the owner doesn't kill the game.

With the rules above, without regard to being able to read the cards coming or the dealers flash, does anyone know what the EV is for the player? I have never seen those rules calculated. I have also not seen the rule of split aces counting as a BJ, and I have no idea how to calculate the EV of doubling on any number of cards. I think they had those rules because the owner misunderstood the rules of BJ.

On a side note, he rakes $16 max a hand at poker!

What's the point of counting and spreading in a heavily +EV game? If you always have an advantage, you should always have the maximum bet your bankroll can support out. Optimum spread would only be something like $400/$500. The game probably had about 4% advantage considering partially known hole cards.

Always know the expected value of your knee caps.

I'm sorry, I must have missed part of the conversation.

Where did you say this house was, again?

Assuming S17', DAS, split to 4...
He was running a single deck game +.48, with the following rules: BJ pays 3-2, unlimited doubles +1.96,
double on any number of cards, stand on all 17s, resplit aces +.08, split aces pays 3-2 like a BJ+.19...

The EV is over 2%. no that doesn't mean you don't count! You always count.
You still need to know the count even with a huge advantage.

Though I have my doubts that a guy raking $16 a hand could or would finance a $15k side game of BJ without some idea of the rules....

Let's hope that the owner doesn't kill the guy who killed his BJ game...

Quote: WongBo

The EV is over 2%. no that doesn't mean you don't count! You always count. You still need to know the count even with a huge advantage.

Only for decision-making really. Otherwise, advantage shifts from the count aren't reason enough to spread significantly. Might as well flat-bet.

Quote: WongBo

Though I have my doubts that a guy raking $16 a hand could or would finance a $15k side game of BJ without some idea of the rules....

You'd be surprised... I don't play at "underground" games for a lot of reasons... however, I did play at a friend's poker game for a while that wasn't above the boards. There wasn't cheating going on (to my knowledge), but the poker play was so bad any strategy decisions could backfire for a lot of reasons. I had two winning sessions and a way more losing sessions. The people who played there were nice enough though.

On the surface, the guy didn't look like he could afford to offer any sort of big wagers. However, he had some bad beat hands and other things that paid out nicely if they hit. When the house has the edge, they always win. When the house doesn't know what it's doing, as is the case with the BJ game, a big hit could cost them a lot.

I would probably DEFINITELY never go back to that game. You may want to consider moving and possibly changing your phone number. I'd consider using the money to buy a new car and get new license plates, registering them under an initial of your first name and last name. People who have underground games have connections, and while I wouldn't suggest the mafia would get involved, when money is at stake, it can get dangerous. Where I live there is a little-followed news story of a poker club owner getting murdered the day before a civil suit hearing because of personal issues. The issue has received very little press coverage...

That's just paranoid, if not to say pretty stupid. If someone wants to find you, they will, short of going abroad or witsec.
But real-life crime is not Tarantino movies, mafia doesn't run around gunning down everyone in their path. There's over 10,000,000 property crimes, 1,500,000 violent crimes, and 15,000 homicides committed in US per year, a small number relative to the overall crime rate.

And most real-life criminals, especially in business like illegal games, are in it for the money, not for the experience. That makes running and spending the "money" (too small an amount to run) a doubly bad idea, since if he does send muscle after you, they'll be after the money, and then it's definitely worth keeping handy.
On the contrary, reasonable ways to go from here would be to either a) Don't come there again or b) Lose a little back next time you're there, to reinforce the impression that it was just a bad run of cards.

Quote: P90

a) Don't come there again or b) Lose a little back next time you're there, to reinforce the impression that it was just a bad run of cards.

Okay, perhaps my first post was a bit cautionary... I'll give you that.

But option b) is a guarantee for having your tires slashed, even if you lose back some of the money. I'm a little surprised you weren't confronted last night, and I guess that's the reason I would take more caution. You WILL be accused of cheating (and you were, even though the house is as much to blame for it) and cheaters aren't well received in those types of games. Maybe changing your entire life is a bit extreme (for $12,000 I'm not sure it is), but for your own sake, DO NOT GO BACK TO THAT GAME!!! And this may seem paranoid, but try not to associate with anybody who was there that evening again. I know you have about $3000 in chips but I'd keep those as a souvenir.

Quentin Tarnatino movies are very extreme, and I know that's not how real life works... you don't get a nice speech before you're killed, the guy just shoots you and leaves quietly.

I highly doubt someone is going to kill me because I killed their BJ game. this is an old established game. They are more likely just to end the. BJ ggame. The house does make money at the BJ game or break even from what I saw.

And yes, he doesn't rake enough to be able to afford paying huge BJ losses. At 16 per hand, my mat says he averaged $250 in rake per hour. Most raked games in Texas rake 12-16 per hand. The rake is like this: $7 up to 200, +$4 for every hundred over 200, +1 for splash pots and high hands.
Im pretty sure he was using poker buy in money to pay me. At end of the night, he couldn't cash me out entirely. Im on the books for the balance he owes me.

And I respectfully disagree. You still should count. I had estimated an advantage around 5%. That's still not a sure thing. 2% sounds kinda low, but the math seems right.

I think the biggest advantage is the hole card and 'next' card play.

Ill probably come back, but not be as greedy like doubling on 13.

Quote: Tiltpoul

You WILL be accused of cheating (and you were, even though the house is as much to blame for it) and cheaters aren't well received in those types of games.

Would be easier for the owner to do it right there and not pay.

Quote: Tiltpoul

Maybe changing your entire life is a bit extreme (for $12,000 I'm not sure it is)

At advantage of ~4%, he must have run through about $400,000 in bets to get there. That's an average bet of at least $500, probably $1,000. That makes $12k just 3 split-doubled hands.

If he was betting less, like a hundred or two per hand, then it was indeed a run of luck more than it was advantage. And we're still not talking about penny-ante games.

Quote: Tiltpoul

Quentin Tarnatino movies are very extreme, and I know that's not how real life works... you don't get a nice speech before you're killed, the guy just shoots you and leaves quietly.

In this kind of situation, he gets the money first. And, usually, that's all he wants (or we'd see closer to half a million murders a year, think of everyone who ever loaned from a shark).

Quote: klimate10

You still should count. I had estimated an advantage around 5%. That's still not a sure thing.

Neither is counting.

An advantage of 5% will vary between 4% and 6% depending on the count, only rarely deviating to 3%-7%. Since bet size is determined by Kelly Criterion under these conditions, optimal spread would be minimal, only 1 to 1.5 units most of the time. Increasing max bet (like to 10x) increases your risk, since the advantage won't be 30% at any count, decreasing min bet loses the still substantial advantage you have even in a cold deck.

Quote: klimate10

I highly doubt someone is going to kill me because I killed their BJ game. this is an old established game. They are more likely just to end the. BJ ggame. The house does make money at the BJ game or break even from what I saw.

So by an old established game I assume you mean this was in a LEGAL CASINO, operated by the state who has to adhere to set rules by a gaming commission. If that's the case, then absolutely you're going to be fine.

From what I read in your post this is an underground game that is ILLEGAL. If the pots on the Hold Em game are as high as you say they are, I'm guessing these players are bring a LOT of money. If these people are professional, business-types who are CEO's of companies and well-paid officials, then again, you're fine.

My limited experience with the underground games is that the majority of players are involved in other illegal activities, which is why they have large amounts of cash on them. Such activities include drug deals and other unsavory things. When people are fueled by drugs, bad things seem to happen. And yes, I know my first post was extreme, but have you ever read any of the stories of the early poker players, like Amarillo Slim and Doyle Brunson? These guys were constantly dodging not only the law but other players and proprietors of the games. We live in a different world now, but the underground circuit still can be like the Wild West at times.

Quote: klimate10

Im on the books for the balance he owes me.

Yeah, I'm guessing you're in somebody's book right now. Hopefully he follows one of the Wizard's commandments "Thou shalt honor thy gambling debts..." (or something like that). Heck, maybe he's even a regular contributor, given his extensive knowledge of house edge on that game...

Quote: klimate10

Ill probably come back, but not be as greedy like doubling on 13.

Am I overreacting to this? To me this is a DUMB DUMB DUMB move. You got a good amount of money, now scram. If the guy is good about paying you the $3000 he owes you, he'll be in touch. Then I'd say have at it... if not, congrats on a big win last night and call it good.

Thanks for concern. You are right. But these places make money by laying low. Stiffing a debt would kill his rep. And violence would scare away his players.

And this guys friends plays at my no rake game. I have a weekly poker group, and his friends are part of it. Did u see my awesome poker set up with two shuflemaster deckmates ? I had a pic of my personal poker set up in another post. His friends a regular at my LEGAL poker game. I had just never been to his illegal game bc i hate paying a rake.

These guys aren't the violent type the or the mob type.

Before u say 'omg, they know where u live!', realize they already know where i work because in my town, Im all over the TV every day.

Quote: klimate10

Thanks for concern. You are right. But these places make money by laying low. Stiffing a debt would kill his rep. And violence would scare away his players.

And this guys friends plays at my no rake game. I have a weekly poker group, and his friends are part of it. Did u see my awesome poker set up with two shuflemaster deckmates ? I had a pic of my personal poker set up in another post. His friends a regular at my LEGAL poker game. I had just never been to his illegal game bc i hate paying a rake.

These guys aren't the violent type the or the mob type.

Before u say 'omg, they know where u live!', realize they already know where i work because in my town, Im all over the TV every day.

I guess I'm confused then... you're saying the clientele is high-brow? If you're on TV every day, then you're either a news reporter of some sort, or a car dealer. In either case, you could stand to lose more than win. While 'stiffing a debt' as you put it would 'kill his rep,' there is definitely some blackmail material. You both stand to lose (him, his game, you, YOUR reputation) so you're at a standstill. To me, odds are you don't get the rest of your money.

Perhaps they don't get violent... but intimidation can come in other forms as well. Regardless, you seem all right with everything, so nothing I say will change you mind. So just be careful... the way you described it, it doesn't seem like there could be a good ending.

Quote: klimate10

So tonight I went to an underground casino that was run in some guy's house. He usually runs an illegal raked poker game ...

breakingthelaw

This is why i (usually) never go to raked poker games!!

Breaking the law! Breaking the law!!

Quote: klimate10

This is why i (usually) never go to raked poker games!!

Breaking the law! Breaking the law!!

Pigs get slaughtered all the time. If you go back and play BJ I'd ask to use the "credits" and dump as best you can or maybe offer to bankroll the game and bring him up to speed on the cards, dealer and rules.

if nothing else unscrupulous people are going to know you have a lot of cash on you when you are leaving.

I say screw it and go back and take them for all that they are worth. Walk out with twice as much next time. At least $30,000. Anything less is a pittance.

The part of this story that I find really bizarre is that of all the other participants (other poker players and the organizers), NO ONE except for you realized that the BJ game had such a huge player advantage. It seems like people playing poker for such stakes would at least have a passing familiarity with other casino games, especially the most popular one out there...

It does seem like Tiltpoul is overreacting given the context. But the context is just so extreme...I'm not sure if I'm qualified to give you advice. No, check that, I'm DEFINITELY sure I'm not qualified to give you advice.

Did they have a posted table max, or just as much as the house felt like fading that day?

Quote: AcesAndEights

It does seem like Tiltpoul is overreacting given the context. But the context is just so extreme...I'm not sure if I'm qualified to give you advice. No, check that, I'm DEFINITELY sure I'm not qualified to give you advice.

Upon further reflection, I decided that I did overreact a bit to the story. However, let me say that I have reason to feel that way.

I live in Ohio, and there are poker clubs all over the state. They operate LEGALLY as there is no rake being pulled off the game, players have to be members, and there are rules and regulations about what the club can and cannot be. One club had a partnership of three guys, all who claimed to have equal stake (one was a highly regarded poker player). To make a very long story short, ownership changed hands without one guy knowing, and a new partnership was created to create a second, separate club without the others involvement. The proceedings were taken to court, and one of the owners was murdered in his apartment.

The finger pointing started out all over the place, as the most obvious suspect had an alibi. After investigation, they discovered that one of the partners allegedly killed the other, and it was, indeed, the most obvious suspect. The amount of money wasn't trivial, but certainly not enough to kill somebody over. All of this being ABOVE BOARD AND LEGAL (well, not the killing, but the clubs were).

I'm pretty sure the guy who was murdered didn't think he was in any danger either. In fact, he had the upper hand and was legit in the business dealings. But now he's dead, and another is on trial and possibly facing the death penalty himself...