Sat in on an amazing shoe last night... and, a easily countable bet?
November 11th, 2011 at 10:52:48 AM
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Mrs and I took my dad and his gf down to AC yesterday, and I played some cards. We were at Showboat, because, well free rooms. For about an hour it went as expected; up a little down a little, hovering right around even. I was down about $25 when there was a change of decks and dealers at the same time.
And Jamie must have handed out about somewhere around $1000 on that shoe, at a $10 game with 5 seats.
I might be exaggerating. But you know how at Showboat they have chips on the outside in racks, but most of them are stacked under glass in the middle? She used maybe 5 stacks of reds from the inside, after emptying them from the outside.
One hand: player got 7-7, dealer showing 5; split. Got... 7-7 and 7-7. Was dealt: 10-10-10-10. Dealer turns over 15, gets... 7. Another hand: I had 13, dealer showing a 10. So I hit... A-A-A-A. Four aces in a row. Dealer turns... 6. Draws a 10.
But it was really a lot more machine-like. All five of us were getting easy hands, 18s and 19s and 20s, and hand after hand she'd show, "15... 23, dealer busts," hands like that. Boom. Boom. Boom. Boom. At the end of the shoe, I looked around the table and everyone had a nice stack. And of course while it was going on we were all cheering.
I cashed out a little later up $300. My dad was up about $250. I know it doesn't happen often, but it's nice when it does.
Showboat has a "20" bet, pays 4-1 with escalations for getting exactly 20 with the first two cards. It seems to me that's a pretty easy calculation, just counting the 10s. You don't even have to be exact, just close; get to the bottom of the deck, if it's ripe with 10s make the bet.
And Jamie must have handed out about somewhere around $1000 on that shoe, at a $10 game with 5 seats.
I might be exaggerating. But you know how at Showboat they have chips on the outside in racks, but most of them are stacked under glass in the middle? She used maybe 5 stacks of reds from the inside, after emptying them from the outside.
One hand: player got 7-7, dealer showing 5; split. Got... 7-7 and 7-7. Was dealt: 10-10-10-10. Dealer turns over 15, gets... 7. Another hand: I had 13, dealer showing a 10. So I hit... A-A-A-A. Four aces in a row. Dealer turns... 6. Draws a 10.
But it was really a lot more machine-like. All five of us were getting easy hands, 18s and 19s and 20s, and hand after hand she'd show, "15... 23, dealer busts," hands like that. Boom. Boom. Boom. Boom. At the end of the shoe, I looked around the table and everyone had a nice stack. And of course while it was going on we were all cheering.
I cashed out a little later up $300. My dad was up about $250. I know it doesn't happen often, but it's nice when it does.
Showboat has a "20" bet, pays 4-1 with escalations for getting exactly 20 with the first two cards. It seems to me that's a pretty easy calculation, just counting the 10s. You don't even have to be exact, just close; get to the bottom of the deck, if it's ripe with 10s make the bet.
A falling knife has no handle.
November 11th, 2011 at 12:20:46 PM
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Quote: MoscaShowboat has a "20" bet, pays 4-1 with escalations for getting exactly 20 with the first two cards. It seems to me that's a pretty easy calculation, just counting the 10s. You don't even have to be exact, just close; get to the bottom of the deck, if it's ripe with 10s make the bet.
Congrats on the win! It's nice to be invincible, even if it is just for a shoe.
How deep was the penetration? In other words, how many decks were in a shoe, and how many cards were left when they hit the cut card before a shuffle?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
November 11th, 2011 at 1:36:22 PM
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8 decks, cut was maybe with 20% left.
A falling knife has no handle.
November 13th, 2011 at 4:18:35 PM
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Coincidentally, probably my best session ever was at the Showboat, and it was exactly as you described. However, it was on their $5 table, I was introducing a friend to blakjack for the first time, and I insisted we never bet more than $5 a hand :)
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
November 13th, 2011 at 9:41:09 PM
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No idea if this is the case, but I suspect a ~10% house edge on that side bet may be too much for counting to overcome. Also remember with BJ side bets you also can't avoid the HE on the main bet unless you're counting it too.
November 14th, 2011 at 5:24:31 AM
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Quote: Mosca
Showboat has a "20" bet, pays 4-1 with escalations for getting exactly 20 with the first two cards. It seems to me that's a pretty easy calculation, just counting the 10s. You don't even have to be exact, just close; get to the bottom of the deck, if it's ripe with 10s make the bet.
Congratulations on the unreal shoe. Those are always a lot of fun... I get into a zen-like state and just keep pressing unit by unit until it ends, then drop back to my original bet.
The side bet I assume you are referring to is Lucky Ladies, which pays 4-1 on any 20, 9-1 on suited 20s, 19-1 on Matched 20, 125-1 on Qh-Qh, and 1000-1 if Qh-Qh is against a dealer's BJ. This bet is indeed countable, but as a previous poster pointed out, the HE is much too high to be able to overcome (it's something like 20% with 8-decks). Unless you are also counting Qh, and you have 75% penetration with 6 or more Qh left, it's probably not worth betting, even with a very high count. I pulled those numbers out of air, but you get the idea...
One time I had a shoe at Harrah's Joliet where I received a made 20 on every hand but two. The dealer only made 21 once, and pushed the others twice. Shortly thereafter, they introduced the Lucky Ladies side bet... man I wish they would have had it that shoe... and I would have been playing it... which I don't, so wishful thinking does me no good.
"One out of every four people are [morons]"- Kyle, South Park
November 17th, 2011 at 10:31:01 AM
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Mosca,
The sidebet you describe is indeed "Lucky Ladies". According to Norm Wattenberger (creator of the outstanding "Casino Verite" blackjack tools, available at www.qfit.com), this sidebet becomes +EV for the player at a HiLo TC of +7: see this link: http://qfit.com/book/ModernBlackjackPage216.htm
A bit later in his online book, though, he recommends waiting for a TC of +9 to play it, as the variance of the sidebet is quite large.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
The sidebet you describe is indeed "Lucky Ladies". According to Norm Wattenberger (creator of the outstanding "Casino Verite" blackjack tools, available at www.qfit.com), this sidebet becomes +EV for the player at a HiLo TC of +7: see this link: http://qfit.com/book/ModernBlackjackPage216.htm
A bit later in his online book, though, he recommends waiting for a TC of +9 to play it, as the variance of the sidebet is quite large.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
