Single Deck Aces

What is the value of leaving the table when 1, 2, 3, or all 4 of the aces have been played? If the biggest consideration in selecting a game is the 6:5 or 3:2 pay out, it seems that there would be significant gain in leaving the table as aces have been played.

I find it to be working well for me, just wondering if leaving was enough to push me over the house edge.

No And please say you have never played 6-5 PLEASE !!

No, i do not play 6:5!

If I don’t play a 6:5 game because of the lesser pay out on a back jack, wouldn’t I also not want to play it if I had little or no chance to get a black jack?

Yes, not playing when you have a large disadvantage (i.e., no aces left in the deck) definitely lowers the house edge in the long run. To know if it is enough to lower it to zero or to a player advantage, we would need to know more about the game, your strategy.

single deck 3:2
dealer hits soft 17
double any first two cards
no double after split
can re-split to 4 hands
split aces dealt 1 card
No surrender
60% penetration
I usually bet flat, although I've been practicing keeping count and making occasional bets based on that.
I've generally had a good trip if i break even at the table and have paid for any minimal expenses.

I ran five 400-million-round simulations in CVData for a heads-up player playing B.S. and flat-betting a SD, H17, DA2 game with 60% penetration.

If he plays all, his IBA is -0.292%.

If he wongs out when all 4 aces are gone, his IBA is -0.251%.

If he wongs out when 3 aces are gone, his IBA is -0.127%.

If he wongs out when 2 aces are gone, his IBA is +0.034%.

If he wongs out when 1 ace is gone, his IBA is +0.081%.

As for distributions for the play-all case, he plays 40.00% of his hands with 0 aces gone, 29.05% of his hands with 1 ace gone, 20.54% of his hands with 2 aces gone, 8.79% of his hands with 3 aces gone, and 1.62% of his hands with all 4 aces gone.

Thus, you CAN get a slightly positive EV if you only play when 3 or 4 aces remain in the deck.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Have fun. Wonging In and Out just ain't worth the few pennies. Have FUN Life is too short to spend it waiting to play !

how about the same strategy for a shoe game ???


could wong out after 4 aces , would that be any benefit ? change tables look for a fresh shoe, once 4 aces are out, repeat ?

Any benefit ?

Yes you will be playing a lot lessm thereby limiting your losses.

If all aces were removed it wouldn't matter whether it was 3:2 or 6:5. The blackjack payout would be irrelevant as blackjacks would be unobtainable. A game with all aces removed would be worse than even a 1:1 blackjack game.

(Aces would still be valuable to a 1:1 game as the player can double on soft hands while the dealer can't)

Quote: DonPedro

how about the same strategy for a shoe game ???


could wong out after 4 aces , would that be any benefit ? change tables look for a fresh shoe, once 4 aces are out, repeat ?

Any benefit ?

DonPedro,

What particular game do you have in mind: how many decks, house rules, penetration?

Off-hand, I'd doubt a shoe game would ever become +EV simply by counting aces, but I'm willing to give it a shot.

Dog Hand

6D S17 , S, RSA

and 4D H17
around 70 %

Quote: DogHand

DonPedro,

What particular game do you have in mind: how many decks, house rules, penetration?

Off-hand, I'd doubt a shoe game would ever become +EV simply by counting aces, but I'm willing to give it a shot.

Dog Hand

If your Ace count is balanced with a 5-count (Ace/Five), you can expect a tiny tiny tiny positive EV. It's not worth playing, unless there are comps involved, or you are a casual blackjack player trying to avoid the house edge.

yah, Aces and Five will get you about 0.15% advantage in the 6D S17 DAS RSA game. Usually though these games are at high price. Unless its a $10 minimum, and you spread 10-40 theres not too much fun.Back in the 80's and 90's, $5 mid-week was quite possible with these rules, but quite rare today.

N&B

DonPedro,

I ran 25 400-million-round CVData sims for a 6D, S17, DA2, DAS, RSA, LS game with 70% penetration for a lone B.S. player who counts only Aces (as -1 each). He wongs out whenever the number of Aces used reaches the indicated Wong Out value.

Here are the results:

Wong Out	IBA	Hands %	Cum. %
-1	-0.182%	6.784%	6.784%
-2	-0.173%	5.638%	12.422%
-3	-0.166%	5.684%	18.107%
-4	-0.161%	5.679%	23.786%
-5	-0.160%	5.684%	29.470%
-6	-0.170%	5.687%	35.157%
-7	-0.164%	5.687%	40.844%
-8	-0.170%	5.686%	46.530%
-9	-0.164%	5.683%	52.213%
-10	-0.164%	5.680%	57.893%
-11	-0.172%	5.675%	63.568%
-12	-0.170%	5.656%	69.224%
-13	-0.170%	5.596%	74.820%
-14	-0.171%	5.449%	80.270%
-15	-0.178%	5.138%	85.408%
-16	-0.194%	4.594%	90.002%
-17	-0.207%	3.791%	93.792%
-18	-0.223%	2.804%	96.597%
-19	-0.249%	1.806%	98.403%
-20	-0.258%	0.978%	99.382%
-21	-0.262%	0.430%	99.811%
-22	-0.271%	0.146%	99.958%
-23	-0.240%	0.036%	99.994%
-24	-0.264%	0.006%	100.000%
Play All	-0.274%	0.000%	100.000%

Thus, if he plays all, his IBA is shown at the end of the table to be -0.274%. On the other hand, if he leaves the table whenever 5 aces have been used in the current shoe, his IBA is -0.160%: thus, he can decrease the odds against him, but cannot make the game +EV just by counting Aces. The Cumulative Percent column tells us that if he Wongs out at -5 but stays at the same table and waits for the next shoe, he'll play on average 29.470% of the rounds... and REALLY annoy any other players at the table ;-)

These IBA numbers are all plus-or-minus 0.006, so don't get TOO excited by differences in the last digit. In fact, using Wong Out points from -2 all the way to -14 yield essentially the same IBA.

I checked the CVData output and found that if he Wongs Out at -14, he'll leave 91.34% of the shoes he starts. For -5 (and -2), he'll leave essentially 100% of the shoes.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

P.S. These "Formatting Codes" aren't too bad!

thanks DH- well done !!:)

Quote: jamo1599

What is the value of leaving the table when 1, 2, 3, or all 4 of the aces have been played? If the biggest consideration in selecting a game is the 6:5 or 3:2 pay out, it seems that there would be significant gain in leaving the table as aces have been played.

1 ace gone can be a really good thing if you have if you played out 14 or more cards. On average you will lose an ace once every 13 cards.
The disadvantage of playing a deck with no aces is 2.56% the advantage of playing a deck with no 5's in it is 3.02%! Ace less decks only happen a very small percentage of hands. Where as a 6:5 blackjack payout will plague you on a lot more hands. If you have an ace less deck you probably only have one more hand to go before the shuffle or it could be the last hand.

Quote: DogHand

DonPedro,

I ran 25 400-million-round CVData sims for a 6D, S17, DA2, DAS, RSA, LS game with 70% penetration for a lone B.S. player who counts only Aces (as -1 each). He wongs out whenever the number of Aces used reaches the indicated Wong Out value.

Here are the results:

Wong Out	IBA	Hands %	Cum. %
-1	-0.182%	6.784%	6.784%
-2	-0.173%	5.638%	12.422%
-3	-0.166%	5.684%	18.107%
-4	-0.161%	5.679%	23.786%
-5	-0.160%	5.684%	29.470%
-6	-0.170%	5.687%	35.157%
-7	-0.164%	5.687%	40.844%
-8	-0.170%	5.686%	46.530%
-9	-0.164%	5.683%	52.213%
-10	-0.164%	5.680%	57.893%
-11	-0.172%	5.675%	63.568%
-12	-0.170%	5.656%	69.224%
-13	-0.170%	5.596%	74.820%
-14	-0.171%	5.449%	80.270%
-15	-0.178%	5.138%	85.408%
-16	-0.194%	4.594%	90.002%
-17	-0.207%	3.791%	93.792%
-18	-0.223%	2.804%	96.597%
-19	-0.249%	1.806%	98.403%
-20	-0.258%	0.978%	99.382%
-21	-0.262%	0.430%	99.811%
-22	-0.271%	0.146%	99.958%
-23	-0.240%	0.036%	99.994%
-24	-0.264%	0.006%	100.000%
Play All	-0.274%	0.000%	100.000%

Thus, if he plays all, his IBA is shown at the end of the table to be -0.274%. On the other hand, if he leaves the table whenever 5 aces have been used in the current shoe, his IBA is -0.160%: thus, he can decrease the odds against him, but cannot make the game +EV just by counting Aces. The Cumulative Percent column tells us that if he Wongs out at -5 but stays at the same table and waits for the next shoe, he'll play on average 29.470% of the rounds... and REALLY annoy any other players at the table ;-)

These IBA numbers are all plus-or-minus 0.006, so don't get TOO excited by differences in the last digit. In fact, using Wong Out points from -2 all the way to -14 yield essentially the same IBA.

I checked the CVData output and found that if he Wongs Out at -14, he'll leave 91.34% of the shoes he starts. For -5 (and -2), he'll leave essentially 100% of the shoes.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

P.S. These "Formatting Codes" aren't too bad!

You have to count the aces against 5's -1 for aces plus 1 for 5's if you want to have a much more balanced system.

Thanx for the numbers. When there several games to choose from it just seems like an easy way to gain a few more points in my favor.

Did you ever find numbers for multiple deck games?