Always an 18

I was at the M in Las Vegas last week (wow what an nice place).

They have a spot bet that gives the player an option to bet a spot that is guaranteed 18 no matter what.

If the dealer has 17 or less the player gets paid.
If the dealer has 18 it is a push.
If the dealer has 19, 20 or 21 the player looses.
If the dealer breaks the player wins.

I though it was a good bet however I was told the average hand was 18.6 and it was a suckers bet.

What do you think?

Check out this analysis on the Wizard's other site, Wizard of Odds:

Instant 18

In short, it's not a great bet with a house edge of 2.04%.

Now I wonder, is this side bet countable? Would there be a situation (or a count) where having a guaranteed 18 would give a player the advantage? Any math pro's, please chime in...

Edit: I suppose not, knowing that the benefit of counting is knowing when to raise or lower your bet when the count is in your favor or knowing when to hit or stay on certain marginal hands or knowing when insurance is worth it etc... but I'm still curious if there might be a small edge...

Quote: MikeNJ61

I thought it was a good bet however I was told the average hand was 18.6 and it was a suckers bet.

I guess its really a bet on the variance of that "average" hand of 18.6. In other words, how many times will the hand that averages 18.6 actually be 17.9 or less.

2.04 percent house edge? I frankly don't consider that to be all that bad. Its a simple bet to make, most BJ sharpies are hunting for these 0.43 percent games, so 2.04 is substantially higher, but if you take a much sought after 0.43 game and add: alcohol, fatigue, mistakes, dealer's tips, waitresses tips, etc. I guess you wind up "somewhere" well above 0.43 and probably not all that far from 2.04 percent anyway.

So I would not think 2.04 percent to be necessarily worthy of the sobriquet "sucker bet". It is an "attractive" side bet that can be viewed as being psychologically deceptive to a certain degree. Think of this: you are playing ordinary blackjack and you hit until you achieve an 18. At that point you don't necessarily feel elated but you do know that you are close and although it is possible the dealer is closer, you are indeed close. They are offering you the option of always being at that "close, but not necessarily close enough" hand of 18.

Well, a Field Bet at Craps is 5.25 percent, I think. Just about ANY bet at roulette is 5.26 percent. Heck, I'd take 2.04 percent and do it happily, though not necessarily wisely.

Do you remember the number of decks involved? Shuffling machine? Etc.?

Frankly, considering the quality of the booze served at The M Resort and the obvious quality of their waitresses, I'd think a 2.04 percent house edge just might be a very good one for the player to be up against particularly when one averages is the overall quality of the rooms, buffets and entertainment. Its the absolute best, bar none, air handling system in town and the Mediterranean Fig Oil droplets make things very pleasant compared to just about any other casino in town.

Now if you take all the above factors and try to adjust that 2.04 into an Adjusted Gross Income, ... I mean Adjusted House Edge, you get only arguments from the math types here, but in reality I think the Adjusted House Edge of some time put in at The M is a pretty good deal.

One can instead go to the Downtown Area by hopping aboard a crow and going 9.4 miles to the "Hell Cortez" and playing a very low house edge game of Blackjack. Or you can ask that crow to let you off at The Venetian's high limit room for a house edge that is even better than 2.04 percent by far! If you go to the "Hell Cortez" you should add in the additional expense of your dry cleaning bill for the smokey clothes. If you add in the expense of the higher food costs at the Venetian and the crow's time, you get some sort of adjusted house edge figure there as well.

Frankly, I'd take the M Resort each time. And be happy with it each time you inhale. Or as Meatloaf might say "2.04 percent plus booze and beauty ain't bad".

A word concerning "but unlike other side bets, it doesn't offer you a chance of a big payout": This is true. Yet, a field bet at craps is not a big payout either, its 1:1 payout. An outside bet at roulette such as Red/Black, Odd/Even is 5.26 percent and also offers only a 1:1 payout. So sure its not a perfect world. Its a casino. And yes, I have to have a Main Entree bet down, before I can order the additional "Side" dish, but when you total up all those factors that erode the 2.04 percent's mathematical value, I think that instead of Meatloaf's Two Out of Three Ain't Bad you get to a similar compromise figure that is unique to the individual's preferences. Some people love the smokey atmosphere of the Hell Cortez. Some people love seeing a House of Detention wrist band on the player sitting beside them. Me? I'd take the M's clientele and the M's waitresses and the M's 2.04 1:1 side bet.

The M resort had by far the nicest staff that could not do enough for me. I asked a dealer what she had after the cards were scooped up because I did not get paid. She looked right at me and said I forgot, asked the other players and few remembered what she had those who remembered what she had did not agree.

The dealer looked at the top two cards in the discard and turned to get a floor person. I told her do not bother - no big deal - I should have asked sooner.

The floor person walked over. Asked the dealer what she had, the dealer said I forgot, he asked the table what they thought they had and what they thought the dealer had then said pay me. I actually said WOW! Not necessary because you were SO NICE about it. However They could not wait to give me my $5 back. In all the years I have played I have never had any staff at any casino be that nice to me (especially the high end casinos).

I believe it was six deck, with the end card stuck into the slot of the shoe to leave 1/2 a deck left prior to the count rather than the 1.5 or 2 decks most other casino's prefer. I do not recall the shuffle method.

The air at the M was better than outside in most towns, the waitress would wait for you to order a drink and would wait till you were not acting on a bet to pass in a drink.

Another first was I gave the waitress a $5 chip, she leaned over - saw that was the smallest chip I had and actually asked me if I would like some change. Again in all the years I have played I have never had any wait staff at any casino be that nice to me (especially the high end casinos). Thinking about it I believe that waitress could have been the daughter of one of the ones at Mirage or the grand daughter of one of the waitress I usually see in Atlantic City.

The M is a place I will be headed back to for sure.

By the way I cracked up when you factored in "mistakes" I never played perfect and few others can do so. My first thought was having a 17 is a looser about 80% +/- of the time however that is far better than breaking where one looses 100% of the time. Even with the 18 side bet one knows the dealer breaks sometimes and sometimes has a 17 (and looses to the 18) or gets a 18 and pushes.

Quote: MikeNJ61

By the way I cracked up when you factored in "mistakes" I never played perfect and few others can do so.

Always happy to inject a little humor into someones day. Actually, Dealer Mistakes and Player Mistakes are part of the "real world" as I hope are such things as tips to the waitress and to the dealers. Those players who carry the math out to ten decimal places to determine what the house edge is in some game have to remember that after a few hours of playing and drinking they may not be capable of doing math at all.

As to a query about the most recent hand, now in the discard rack. I think dealers are permitted to reach for discarded cards only upon orders from or in the immediate presence of the floorperson. If there is any inquiry from a player, not even a dispute or a protest, just a mere inquiry I watch the dealers and floors reaction. If they are immediately helpful and countback the discards openly and settle the question clearly and immediately despite every other player having piped up about what the correct answer was, I put a toke bet out there right away. I think its proper for a dealer and floor man to at all times stand ready to display honesty and openness right then and there. The slightest question arises? Then pause right then and there and resolve it immediately and openly. And be done with it. The house stands ready to show what happened and the players immediately get all questions resolved. No grudges, no nagging doubts.

1/2 a deck left??? That's very very very good penetration. Was it H17? I'm booking a trip to M if it's not.

I cracked up too. I like playing house games with low edges also. However my primary goal is to have fun and try to win a little money or lose as little as possible. Drinking and socializing at a table, to me, is part of the whole experience. Now I enjoy winning as much as anybody and will do what I can to maximize this, but after a few drinks things happen and perfect strategy is quite imperfect. I am a guy who at Showboat in Atlantic City last summer got up from the Pia Gow Poker table to go to the bathroom, dropped my chips on the floor, and as I went to pick them up my shorts fell and there I was in my big dog boxers in the middle of the casino floor much to the horror of my wife and fellow players.

That's hillarious, being in your boxers in the casino, back in the day I used to play at Showboat occasionally. So are these tables H17 or S17 at M, and is 1/2 a deck left common?

They are now all h17 on the floor and the BJ I think is 6 to 5. The high limit room has the 3 to 2 BJ but I dont remember if its h17 or s17. Thats one of the reasons I switched to playing more Pai Gow Poker. Of course I lose often at that as well even though its basically a low advantage game.

gah ruleset neutralizes the penetration then :(


At least Pai Gow is slow action, and you can get very drunk with little bankroll fluctuation.

Yes except for me who the last five times I have played have gotten my ass kicked up, down, and sideways in almost an incomprehensible way.

After playing a bit of BJ now I can see a 17 blows, but I had thought an 18 'good enough". Wrong. Of course the problem is you have to stand on 18 anyway, to keep from busting [in BJ, not this side bet]

Well Hook, you can always hope that regresses back to the mean, and variance at least pulls you back to near the house edge in losses. "You're due" lol

Quote: hook3670

my primary goal is to have fun and try to win a little money or lose as little as possible. Drinking and socializing at a table, to me, is part of the whole experience.

That is it for just about everyone. We can all start our mathematical analysis with the payout table in the high limit room and the liquor list from the high limit room's bar but for a real world analysis most of us have to accept the rules offered on the casino floor just as we have to accept the brand of booze that is offered there too. Now for some of us, the free booze is a more major goal than for others, but in reality we know that its a casino that we are in, not a bar. We start our evaluation with the table limits and the rules of the game, not with the quality of the Scotch.

Its a side bet, not a main bet and not a mandatory one. Considered by itself, the house edge is 2.04 percent. That is not all that bad a house edge compared to other games offered and other bets offered.

Given the situations in other casinos, the side bets offered in other casinos, the booze in other casinos, etc., it all adds up to a pretty good deal at the M. Sure its not as spectacular a deal as one might at first think, but its not all that bad and there is no obligation to take that side bet anyway.

So the proper vote is still: Good For The House but voting Good For The Player is still a valid vote also. After all, we know the casino nicks us a little bit all the time but at least we get an okay bet even if its not exactly a great bet.