Nick Kallos' BJ Advice

Do you guys know Nick Kallos? He has dealing school in Las Vegas, appeared several times on television and has many years casino experience as a dealer and a pitboss. Recentness I bought a DVD about Blackjack featuring Nick Kallos and I must say that I was shocked that he gave advise that just doesn't seemed right. Here a some examples:

- Only play shoe games because of the consistency
- never hit your stiff twice because you're gonna bust (except for a 12 or 13)
- always figure the dealers' hole card for a ten
- forget about card counting. if the count goes up the dealer has the same chance of getting the good cards as you do.
- use the 3 in 1 press money management system.
- he wouldn't hit a 14 against a 7 because hasn't enough "outs".
- he wouldn't hit a 15 against a 10
- Vegas is the greatest city in the world, you're gonna love it! (he's right)
- if you're doing bad playing one spot, you can play two spots because it changes the flow of the cards
- Don't play with dealers that kicked your butt last time you played with them because there a certain dealers that win a lot
- it is stupid to double on soft 15 and soft 17
- double for less so you don't risk loosing a lot of money

What do you guys think? Is Nick Kallos giving bogus advice?

His advice is a mixed bag (some good, some bad) as to play. It's based on his experience as a dealer and his own play, not on "the book" basic strategy.
For dealing, he and his team trains dealers very well.
' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'>http://www.learntodeal.com/] his dealer school's site

Yes. Some of it inconsistent.

1) single/double deck games with the same rules are better than shoe games
2) the # of cards you pull while playing your hand only matter in single deck or when you are counting (conflicts with 4)
3) not a good idea. Helpful for remembering BS, but a bad overall strategy
4) counting IS good. You get paid 3:2 on BJs, and only you can double!
5) money management is ho-hum.
6) he's right in a single deck game (conflicts with #1)
7) he's wrong
8) ok, maybe this one... but greatest?
9) not true
10) also not true
11) this advice is stupid
12) when you have the advantage and thus have decided to double, you should put as much as they let you on the table.

booooogus.

Gee, he left out charting the table before you sit down. Now i know why most dealers have no idea about Basic Strategy or the math involved in the game.

I'm left wondering if this is how dealers are trained to give bad or misleading advice to players.

I love it when a dealers says with a 6 up, " I almost always bust with a 6 up. " Almost always is 43%

Or the deuce up is a dealer's Ace. " I hardly ever bust with it" Hardly ever is 33%.

Quote:

- Only play shoe games because of the consistency

i prefer shoe games to hand-dealt single or double deck games because I don't have the patience to wait through so much shuffling. If that's what's meant by "consistency," then fine.

Quote:

- never hit your stiff twice because you're gonna bust (except for a 12 or 13)

Yep, unless you don't bust. If I get 15, I'm going to hit and I don't really care if I have 2 cards or 3 cards in front of me when I take that hit.

Quote:

- always figure the dealers' hole card for a ten

Why ten? Sure, it's the modal card, but wouldn't the mean or the median make more sense? really, the mean is 6.54 and the median is 6.5. Why not assume the dealer's hole card is 6.5? Or just learn basic strategy.

Quote:

- forget about card counting. if the count goes up the dealer has the same chance of getting the good cards as you do.

But when I get them, I get paid 1.5:1 and when the dealer gets them I lose 1:1. This is just awful advice.

Quote:

- use the 3 in 1 press money management system.

Increases variance and risk of ruin. The variance might be nice for the player, but the net result probably favors the house since you'll bust out more often.

Quote:

- he wouldn't hit a 14 against a 7 because hasn't enough "outs".

Correct for single deck, wrong for shoe games and CSM games. Since #1 advocates for shoe games, this is probably bad advice.

Quote:

- he wouldn't hit a 15 against a 10

Did he recently visit a doc in KY to get circumcised?

Quote:

- Vegas is the greatest city in the world, you're gonna love it! (he's right)

Vegas is pretty great.

Quote:

- if you're doing bad playing one spot, you can play two spots because it changes the flow of the cards

This won't change your luck. To the extent that you're doing poorly, maybe going from 1 hand to 0 hands would be the better way to "change the flow of the cards."

Quote:

- Don't play with dealers that kicked your butt last time you played with them because there a certain dealers that win a lot

This is true. They're usually the dealers in the party pit. But it's not their fault - damn drunken distracted players...

Quote:

- it is stupid to double on soft 15 and soft 17

This advice is stupid

Quote:

- double for less so you don't risk loosing a lot of money

if risking less money is what I'm going for, why double at all? If I don't double, I can hit more than once as well! When doubling is the right play, it's the right play for as much money as the house will let you bet. There is no half-way.

Quote: flynn

]What do you guys think? Is Nick Kallos giving bogus advice?

It's the kind of silly, superstitious advice you'd expect a 22 year old to give his 21 year old friend on the latter's first trip to the casino. It's not really terrible advice, and it's probably well-intentioned. But it's definitely not good or given from the level of expertise that you'd expect a dealing instructor to posess.

I think it is telling what his job is and has been. The dealer is not going to benefit from studying strategy, that actually could hurt him since he has to play the cards the house way. So it illustrates how what poor observers humans are without actually taking statistics. Yes, it seems like I bust nearly every time when I have to keep hitting a stiff too, easy to conclude twice is plenty. Etc.

I am quite confident I would be playing BJ completely wrong if I was to go by what *seems* to be true from my own play, even if that play had sufficient trials; that it doesnt isn't going to occur to me without study as well. Yet Kallos is human and to have to admit such an experienced person as himself actually knows nothing about proper strategy is intolerable to his ego. So he has to spout off of course. Classic.

Quote: odiousgambit

I think it is telling what his job is and has been.

Nick Kallos is a great dealer and runs a solid dealing school, and it that regard, he is very fine.
In fact, (and trust me on this), to know Basic strategy very well and then to deal can make you want to shake your head.

Quote: odiousgambit

The dealer is not going to benefit from studying strategy,

True, it is actually immaterial, even annoying to see the game butchered. Better to deal "to a T" and to protect the game without detailed game-play comment, while being friendly and sociable as a dealer.

Quote: odiousgambit

that actually could hurt him [the dealer] since he has to play the cards the house way. So it illustrates how what poor observers humans are without actually taking statistics. Yes, it seems like I bust nearly every time when I have to keep hitting a stiff too, easy to conclude twice is plenty. Etc.

Very true; without knowing the real statistics, the game of BJ seems to behave differently than what the book (Basic Strategy) may indicate.
It is also the same in Pai Gow Poker, where experienced players merely learn cold the often-weak house that that they are most exposed to.

Quote: odiousgambit

I am quite confident I would be playing BJ completely wrong if I was to go by what *seems* to be true from my own play, even if that play had sufficient trials; that it doesnt isn't going to occur to me without study as well. Yet Kallos is human and to have to admit such an experienced person as himself actually knows nothing about proper strategy is intolerable to his ego. So he has to spout off of course. Classic.

I disagree. Nick is a great guy and not at all an arrogant man. He wasn't spouting off; he was simply giving advice as he saw fit from the game-play end, not the mathematically hashed-out "bookish" end of it all that we are used to.