BJ COUNTERS

If somehow the effect of counters was to disappear, what would be the expected increase in the drop ?

Quote: buzzpaff

If somehow the effect of counters was to disappear, what would be the expected increase in the drop ?

Er... uh... Sorry folks but this poll is invalid. What is this about "expected increase in the drop?

Please think back to the Golden Days of Blackjack: The Post-Thorpe era. When Professor Thorpe's book made the NY Times Best Seller list for weeks on end, casinos got scared but soon realized it was a great boon to them and they started hiring black jack dealers like crazy and even ripping out craps tables to put in BJ tables. This was the actual effect of card counting. It drew zillions of would-be card counters to Las Vegas. People who thought they could count and people who in their basement rec-rooms in New Jersey actually could indeed count cards and do it very well. Then those counters arrived at a Vegas casino and got hit by "the buzz". And drank. And brought spouses with them who also gambled though perhaps not at blackjack. Casinos loved all these "card counters".

If the effect of counters were to disappear today, the drop would decrease, not increase. Simply because there would be far fewer players who played blackjack or even tried to count. Many blackjack players consider Basic Strategy itself, irrespective of card counting, to be an esoteric branch of advanced mathematics. These players dig into their fanny packs and give their money to the casino. After a few drinks, they give even more money to the casino. Then along come the players who've heard of card counting and most of them give fanny-pack money to the casino also.

Expert card counters who engage in massive bet spreading and who avoid detection appear to be few and far between. At low limit tables they may be pests who are viewed as too greedy but the overall effect of card counting seems to a boon for casinos. Oh, I'm not saying that eliminating the effect of card counters would be the equivalent of requiring strip clubs to operate with fully clothed females but on balance the existence of the notion of card counting is similar to that sign: Live Nude Girls. In brings in a great many men only a few of which ever went to a Dead Nude Girls club.

Quote: buzzpaff

If somehow the effect of counters was to disappear, what would be the expected increase in the drop ?

are you talking about worldwide, the US only, or just Las Vegas?

Flea, I am not talking about basic strategy players or guys that count a little sometimes till they get bored. I am talking about counters who on a regular basis take 3 and 4 figure winning from the tables.
Paranoia is the word I would use to describe the fear of counters by casino management. I base that on my 20 years watching that fear in Colorado with all the casinos. I have seen double deck games shuffled with more than one deck remaining. Some casinos used a 8 deck shoe, most a 6 deck shoe. All have a routine for shuffling that is time consuming. I have seen drunks barred for doubling a hard 12 or another stupid play. Sometimes on the first hand out of a shoe.
During those 20 years the minimum bet was $5 and the max $5. Not even George could make a profit under those rules,
When the limits went to $100, they capped the streak side bet at $25. Willing to let a player bet $100 when he might have an edge
of 2 to 6 percent , but not buck 8% HE on streak LOL
My main reason for asking is to get an opinion that's all. If I had a BJ game players would play but counters could not beat, what do you think the increase would be ? I mean switch can be beat I imagine as can all BJ games, but doubt counters are flocking to it.
MR CASINO GAMES I meant Vegas in general but appreciate anyone's post for anywhere,

PS Flea if you think the wifes and GF's will stop playing slots because BJ is not there, I think you are sadly mistaken.

> I am not talking about basic strategy players or guys that count a little sometimes till they get bored.
Right, they are irrelevant.

>I am talking about counters who on a regular basis take 3 and 4 figure winning from the tables.
Are these counters that actually exist or are these counters that exist only in the minds of the well-stuffed fanny pack wearers?
Its the "card counting" myths that lure alot of players to blackjack. They can't actually count for beans but they have dreams and along with those dreams they bring cash. They think they are going to take a few grand each day, every day and will always win, never lose and never be noticed.

> Paranoia is the word I would use to describe the fear of counters by casino management.
A foolish paranoia.

>I have seen double deck games shuffled with more than one deck remaining.
Shuffling takes time. The house edge applies when the dealer is dealing but not when the dealer is shuffling. Casinos are too paranoid about card counters.

Hate to say this but one word missing from your replies. AMEN !

One of my favorite scenes in Las Vegas Vacation is Chevy Chase reading a book on card counting while he's in the casino restaurant, like he can learn to do it that morning.

Right after the movie "21" came out, i saw a young fellow come to the table, and I just know he was a "wannabe" counter

Quote: buzzpaff

If somehow the effect of counters was to disappear, what would be the expected increase in the drop ?

1. You mean the "hold" - or profit for the house. And:

2. Buzz is right. The only real effect of Ed Thorpe's "Beat the dealer" book was to popularize BJ over craps as the pre-eminent casino game.

Granted, some card counters made some money. As a career, Card counting is both over, and was not as glamourous as portrayed. Some small time counting may make a tiny profit ("dinner and a movie") a la "CM", but really, it has been over for a long time.

Casino defenses:
1. Flag any player on a shoe or pitch game to flat-betting, if he goes over a 3X "flat bet" amount on the same deal. If he is playing uncarded, wearing a baseball cap to prevent identification by surveillance, ordering non-alcoholic drinks, not tipping the dealer at any time, wearing an MIT Math Team T-shirt or is overly dressed, has a gimmick, or stands out in any way, he will be tracked as to his play like Rats on Cheese with No Apology.
2. Cut the deck at 50% to 60% - Boom - RESHUFFLE...Single Deck? - One hand dealt with One player...
3. Jump bet by 5X? - "Floor Alert - track this player if we don't know him (read: potential CARD COUNTER, call surveillance for tracking, depending on his action level)..."
4. Don't like it??!! - Go play dice or Roulette or Pai Gow Poker...or go to Joker's Wild on Boulder Highway....have a nice night, sir...

As a career - or even a pastime for laughs and giggles, card counting is pretty much over...

Quote: Paigowdan

As a career - or even a pastime for laughs and giggles, card counting is pretty much over...

Pretty much. Though some gorgeous girls sure did well at it in the early days and one card-counting team flew from Santa Monica to Vegas each weekend so everyone could sit there quietly counting while Drunken-Big-Bettor moved in on signal to high-count-tables.

Those books and movies are great for the casino. They get paranoid about it sometimes but those books and movies are great. Even the guy in that New Jersey Rec Room who can count in his basement sure can't count when there is music, booze and half-naked women all over the place. Add in a Floor Person chatting with him and the distraction is just too much.

Reading the counting book at breakfast? LOL. That sort of mentality is just what the casino wants.

I'm reminded of the casino who let a man repeatedly take shots at the craps table because his wife was losing ten grand at the blackjack table. I think some casino's tolerance toward low level card counters is pretty much the same thing. Its a sort of "comp" to let the player think he is getting away with something when all he is doing is getting chickenfeed.

Quote: Paigowdan

card counting is pretty much over...

Yes, Card counting is very much over...

Quote: MrCasinoGames

Yes, Card counting is very much over...

World wide? Or Vegas only? Seems like not every casino is sophisticated enough to catch counters with any degree of efficiency.

One effect that hasn't been mentioned is:
A lot of people who think they are counting, but don't keep it right, still win.

Blackjack has simultaneously some of the best odds in the house and relatively high volatility. Even if you aren't a counter, by just following the basic strategy, you still win a lot of time.
And then, when these players who win believe they won due to their skill rather than chance, is when you can really drain them slowly over their lifetime. Well, not all of them. Some still win, and a few even win due to their skill. But the "95% of everything sucks" rule applies to players, too.

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Quote: Paigowdan

.Granted, some card counters made some money. As a career, Card counting is both over, and was not as glamourous as portrayed.

Card counting for a single player was never viable.
Card counting by teams is hardly over. In fact, there
are more teams now than ever before. In Europe and
other parts of the world they're flourishing. The only
reason counting here is so sporadic is because the
casinos have hurt the game so much with CSM's
and laughable BJ odds.

how do you hole card w/ the peaker ?

Quote: DonPedro

how do you hole card w/ the peaker ?

Before Ibeatyouraces responds to this, I honestly hope he considers the effect that unrestricted spreading of sensitive information has on his career longevity! No offense DonPedro, it's just a subject that shouldn't be discussed as openly as it has been recently.

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Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Paigowdan

.Granted, some card counters made some money. As a career, Card counting is both over, and was not as glamourous as portrayed.

Card counting for a single player was never viable.
Card counting by teams is hardly over. In fact, there
are more teams now than ever before. In Europe and
other parts of the world they're flourishing. The only
reason counting here is so sporadic is because the
casinos have hurt the game so much with CSM's
and laughable BJ odds.

Some of the biggest and longest-running teams around have thrived largely through a network of solo players playing off of a large, shared bankroll. High-stakes solo counting is still completely viable, but most players involved in this sort of activity are indeed team-affiliated. Most of the pros nowadays don't make money solely from counting, especially in the non-USA games that you mentioned. Valuable promotions and uncommon rules are a big reason why casinos abroad have seen a lot of big action from teams in the last couple of decades. In response to the OP, the disappearance of counters would decrease the drop significantly, not increase it, but as pointed out earlier, you're probably referring to the hold, which would probably increase by a tiny amount. Card counters really do not pose much of a serious threat to most casinos' bottom lines.

It is still done far more than you may think, but much is it is done in lower levels to avoid attention. It is a JOB, different than most, but still a job and at the smaller limits available is a living, but not much more. I am sure there are those making much more, but for the average person working the game, the return is not great, the hours are not great and it takes skill and discipline.

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

...closely kept secrets.

Midwest, Illinois, Michigan. Horseshoe, Grand Vic, Hollywood, Belterra, MGM Detroit, Greektown, Motor City, Kewadin.

Perhaps it's a product of my job, but it seems I might be zeroing in on your haunts (?). While I'm not such a busy body to send out a BOLO flash, perhaps may come the day when you run into someone who is. You should remember when thinking of your

Quote: LonesomeGambler

career longevity!

that we're always watching ;)

Carry on...

Damn Face you been following me around?

Quote: ncfatcat

Damn Face you been following me around?

Hehe, I don't follow anyone around. I was just pointing out to Ibeat that the above info is what has stuck in my head simply from reading his posts. I didn't even think of it until Lonesome mentioned it, so I thought I'd point out for his sake out how easily information travels. If I, as someone who is sees .001% of his life, which is only in WoV forum posts form, can know the above (if it is even anything worth knowing), then he should expect others closer to him to know much more. Maybe, others who wish to cease his activities.

At worst, it's bad info and he'll make fun of me. At best, it'll open his eyes and he'll be safer in his pursuits.

Actually I like the midwest for gambling, especially Southern Indiana as I am a teutonic caucasian and it seems there are a lot of people with common ancestry there.
Only problem with the area is told in the local joke " Durn ran off the road in the snowstorm last night and wiped out 3 meth labs..." Was reading the Paoli newspaper in French Lick one day last year and about fell over on this headline "Local Crime Wave Ended - Suspects Caught with 90 Stolen Fence Gates"

Quote: Face

we're always watching ;)

This is exactly my point, and although it seems odd to thank someone from the dark side, I do thank you for putting it so well. Excessive information sharing is a big problem of many otherwise-skilled players, and it certainly doesn't make our job any easier (although I'm sure you don't mind it a bit)!

Quote: LonesomeGambler

This is exactly my point, and although it seems odd to thank someone from the dark side, I do thank you for putting it so well. Excessive information sharing is a big problem of many otherwise-skilled players, and it certainly doesn't make our job any easier (although I'm sure you don't mind it a bit)!

Pot.

Quote: RussHaley

Pot.

...calling the Kettle black? Not sure I catch your drift, as I generally steer clear of truly sensitive topics online. Maybe even the tip of the iceberg is too much, I suppose.

Quote: LonesomeGambler

...it certainly doesn't make our job any easier (although I'm sure you don't mind it a bit)!

Yes and no. While I share a lot of the same beliefs on player ethics as our passionate friend PaiGowDan, we come from different worlds. I'm sure if he could just press a button and rid gaming of all player shenanegins, he would do it. Less stress for him as a dealer, less threat on his own game, it would make his world.

I, on the other hand, have somewhat of a symbiotic relationship with you guys. While on the surface it may look as if we're at odds and constantly battling, I know I rely on you guys for my existence. If Dan pushed that button and you guys disappear, so do I. There's not much need for protection when there isn't a threat. So while a cheat or two expossed here might increase my value as an employee, there is such a thing as too much of a good thing. Plus, it's no fun if I find something after being told to look for it. It's like dating, or football, or auto racing... the chase is 95% of the fun ;)

Sure, and many guys from upstairs also worked as skilled players at one time or another (Forte, Zender, Cellini, DeCarlo, Rubin, and so on). For me, playing cards is the easy (read: boring) part—everyone enjoys the cat-and-mouse game to some extent. However, I would be careful about lumping in legitimate skilled players with "cheats," as that's a pretty grave error for someone working in game protection. That mistake has cost casinos a lot of money in the last 10 years.

>Card counting for a single player was never viable.
I met two lovely ladies in the 70s for whom it was quite viable. Daily. Though I will admit that casinos soon were watching too closely and signalling a wandering bettor became the standard practice as the counters just gave a signal and kept betting in their customary manner.

>Card counting by teams is hardly over. ... more teams now than ever ... In Europe and they're flourishing.
>The only reason counting here is so sporadic is because the casinos have hurt the game so much with CSM's
So Europe does not use such Continuous Shuffling Machines? Is that why counting teams flourish there but not here? Salesmen from CSM manufacturer afraid to fly across the Atlantic and sell to European casinos, are they?

Quote: LonesomeGambler

...calling the Kettle black? Not sure I catch your drift, as I generally steer clear of truly sensitive topics online. Maybe even the tip of the iceberg is too much, I suppose.

Sorry, but you have a serious case of diarrhea of the keyboard. Not only here in this forum full of ploppies, but all over the net. Once you attain a certain level of play in this business, making the types of posts you do is nothing but -EV. Some players use the boards as a means of networking, but you've claimed to be a lone wolf, so what is your objective? To show everyone how smart you are? To urge on more new players for an already dwindling market? To help the casino side learn even more than they already do?

Quote: RussHaley

Sorry, but you have a serious case of diarrhea of the keyboard. Not only here in this forum full of ploppies, but all over the net. Once you attain a certain level of play in this business, making the types of posts you do is nothing but -EV. Some players use the boards as a means of networking, but you've claimed to be a lone wolf, so what is your objective? To show everyone how smart you are? To urge on more new players for an already dwindling market? To help the casino side learn even more than they already do?

I was agreeing with you before, but I may have been unclear in my response. You're right, simple enough.