Hitting with 16 against dealer 10?

The wizard says stand on 16 against dealer 10 with 3 or more cards but others say only stand with 3 or more cards if one of the cards is a 4 or 5. Who is right?

Neither. If I crunched the numbers correectly, it's:

In a single-deck or double-deck game (or when a game is down to two decks or less), stand on hard 16 with a 10 showing.
Otherwise, hit.

This reminds me of the first time I played blackjack at a casino; I was the last player (in a five-deck game), had a 16 against a 10, hit, and took a 2; IIRC, the dealer turned up a 5 and drew a 3, so we pushed, after which the player next to me complained to his wife that he lost (with 17) because of my "incorrect" play.

This is the closest play in blackjack. Simulations estimate it's about 0.003 away from a 50% coin-flip. One 5 or 10 on the table can send the correct play in either direction.

I think the best heursitic is to do a quick count on the table. If there are more low cards than high cards, stand. If more high cards than low cards, hit.

Quote: ascdds

The wizard says stand on 16 against dealer 10 with 3 or more cards but others say only stand with 3 or more cards if one of the cards is a 4 or 5. Who is right?

Try looking here instead of here.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

This reminds me of the first time I played blackjack at a casino; I was the last player (in a five-deck game), had a 16 against a 10, hit, and took a 2; IIRC, the dealer turned up a 5 and drew a 3, so we pushed, after which the player next to me complained to his wife that he lost (with 17) because of my "incorrect" play.

What I always tell them is next time buy my 16 for face value and you can do whatever you want with it. Hell, I'll even sell it to you at a 25% discount.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

In a single-deck or double-deck game (or when a game is down to two decks or less),

Why do you think a game down to two decks or less is equivalent to a double or single deck game ?

In fact, unless you count cards, a 6 deck game plays the same for each hand regardless the number of cards left in the shoe.

Personally I nearly always hit as, at a good table, people prefer players that always do the same (and it thus makes the game more enjoyable and stops the "but the dealer would have bust" comments). But does anyone know, suppose one wanted to adopt a consistent strategy (and assuming flat betting) would it be better to always hit or always stick. In other words is the theoretical error of hitting when you should stand bigger than the error of standing when you should hit, given the natural variations of hands. (The wizard's simple rule of 2-cards hit and 3-cards stand is obviously better, but I'd rather explain simply that I "hit" 16s. We all know the trouble one gets explaining 12s!)

It's better to hit 16, given no knowledge about the cards remaining in the deck or on the table.

Thanks - I know that "infinite deck" it's better to hit (UK .212 387 840 to .212 109 077), with the dealer yet to check for blackjack it's 21.211% chance of busting. The question is suppose the count naturally varies according to normal distribution, sometimes it will be +2x, +x, 0, -x, -2x. Say it was 2% wrong to hit when +ve, and only 1% wrong to stand when -ve, you'd be better off standing. Conversely 1% wrong to hit +ve, 2% wrong to stand -ve, better off hitting.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

This reminds me of the first time I played blackjack at a casino; I was the last player (in a five-deck game), had a 16 against a 10, hit, and took a 2; IIRC, the dealer turned up a 5 and drew a 3, so we pushed, after which the player next to me complained to his wife that he lost (with 17) because of my "incorrect" play.

That's why I stay away from Blackjack. If I play Craps, Pai Gow Poker, Let It Ride, even Roulette, my stupid bets and mistakes don't 'affect' the other players' results at all. They have no reason to bitch about it.

Quote: charliepatrick

Personally I nearly always hit as, at a good table, people prefer players that always do the same (and it thus makes the game more enjoyable and stops the "but the dealer would have bust" comments). But does anyone know, suppose one wanted to adopt a consistent strategy (and assuming flat betting) would it be better to always hit or always stick. In other words is the theoretical error of hitting when you should stand bigger than the error of standing when you should hit, given the natural variations of hands. (The wizard's simple rule of 2-cards hit and 3-cards stand is obviously better, but I'd rather explain simply that I "hit" 16s. We all know the trouble one gets explaining 12s!)

The 16 vs 10 decision is so close that for the casual player, it's probably just a few bucks difference after a lifetime of play. In the absence of surrender, play this hand and all hands for that matter exactly as you wish.

You are under no obligation to explain anything to anyone. When another player comments they're just showing that they don't understand the game of blackjack and probably never will.

If they want to pay you to play your hand a certain way that's different but we all know what happens when it comes to "put up or shut up".

When the misguided jerk is really offensive I act naive. Next time the situation comes up, I ask him what I should do? Both times that person had me stand and dealer wound up with 20 or 21. Whereupon I stood up indignantly, gathered my chips and with a
straight face told him I lost my money because of his stupid decision. LOL

Quote: charliepatrick

Thanks - I know that "infinite deck" it's better to hit (UK .212 387 840 to .212 109 077), with the dealer yet to check for blackjack it's 21.211% chance of busting. The question is suppose the count naturally varies according to normal distribution, sometimes it will be +2x, +x, 0, -x, -2x. Say it was 2% wrong to hit when +ve, and only 1% wrong to stand when -ve, you'd be better off standing. Conversely 1% wrong to hit +ve, 2% wrong to stand -ve, better off hitting.

Simulation tables from Stanford Wong's books clearly show a minor advantage towards hitting. These simulations account for natural variation in the count.

If the COUNT (not even true count) in an 8 card deck is +1, you could stand and probably be better off. But if you are going to stick to one action, HIT.

Thanks very much - exactly the answer I was looking for.

This maybe somewhat simple math.

(stats from blackjackproffesor )

As we all know w/ a 10 up, the dealer will bust only 2 out 10 .

Also w/ a 10 showing the dealer will make at least :

17 71 % of the time
18 60 % of the time
19 49 % of the time
20 38 % of the time
21 4 % of the time
BJ 8% of the time

So the dealer will make their hand 8 out of 10 .

W/ a hard 16, we should win on avg. 2 out 10 by staying .

W/ a hard 16, 5 of the 13 cards will improve our hand. A-2-3, gives us a pat hand( still probably a loser) and 4/5 (could/should be at least push or winners.)

So 35 % of the cards will improve our hand, which may still lose, we only have to win 3 out of 10 by hitting to favor hitting .

Does the 35 % of favorable cards( at least wont bust us) encourage us to hit, I believe so !!

Yes when we know the count is positive, yes it maybe better to stand, but still probably a loser.

In my humble opinion 16 vs 10 is a loser , so I hit it and never worry about it.

How many times have you hit 16 and caught good card, did not bust and dealer flipped another 10.

Every once in awhile you catch a 5 , w/ a big bet out !! At least you can get some cool points !!

" Even a broken clock is right twice a day "

I agree with your simple maths. Assuming "infinite deck" standing only wins when the dealer busts whereas hitting has five better chances of winning (with 21 thru 17) and eight chances of losing. Mathematically one adds the total chances and divide by 13.

As you say (i) there is great enjoyment of getting a 4 or 5 (ii) assume I've lost so any money paid out is a bonus.

D BJ .076 923 077 (Note UK odds where Blackjack is still possible)
B 21 .034 501 262
D 20 .342 193 569
D 19 .111 424 339
D 18 .111 424 339
D 17 .111 424 339
D Bust .212 109 077

Total Standing vs Hitting (P winning + 1/2 P standoff)
H21 .905 826 292
H20 .717 478 877 .069 678 946
H19 .490 669 923 .124 869 628
H18 .379 245 584 .162 613 469
H17 .267 821 246 .191 786 206
H16 .212 109 077 .212 387 840
H15 .212 109 077 .228 725 366
etc.