ascdds
Joined: May 23, 2011
• Posts: 3
June 23rd, 2011 at 10:28:50 AM permalink
The wizard says stand on 16 against dealer 10 with 3 or more cards but others say only stand with 3 or more cards if one of the cards is a 4 or 5. Who is right?
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
• Posts: 4336
June 23rd, 2011 at 10:53:48 AM permalink
Neither. If I crunched the numbers correectly, it's:

In a single-deck or double-deck game (or when a game is down to two decks or less), stand on hard 16 with a 10 showing.
Otherwise, hit.

This reminds me of the first time I played blackjack at a casino; I was the last player (in a five-deck game), had a 16 against a 10, hit, and took a 2; IIRC, the dealer turned up a 5 and drew a 3, so we pushed, after which the player next to me complained to his wife that he lost (with 17) because of my "incorrect" play.
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
• Posts: 1246
June 23rd, 2011 at 11:01:26 AM permalink
This is the closest play in blackjack. Simulations estimate it's about 0.003 away from a 50% coin-flip. One 5 or 10 on the table can send the correct play in either direction.

I think the best heursitic is to do a quick count on the table. If there are more low cards than high cards, stand. If more high cards than low cards, hit.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
• Posts: 7056
June 23rd, 2011 at 11:04:35 AM permalink
Quote: ascdds

The wizard says stand on 16 against dealer 10 with 3 or more cards but others say only stand with 3 or more cards if one of the cards is a 4 or 5. Who is right?

Try looking here instead of here.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
teddys
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
• Posts: 5444
June 23rd, 2011 at 11:11:32 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

This reminds me of the first time I played blackjack at a casino; I was the last player (in a five-deck game), had a 16 against a 10, hit, and took a 2; IIRC, the dealer turned up a 5 and drew a 3, so we pushed, after which the player next to me complained to his wife that he lost (with 17) because of my "incorrect" play.

What I always tell them is next time buy my 16 for face value and you can do whatever you want with it. Hell, I'll even sell it to you at a 25% discount.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
MangoJ
Joined: Mar 12, 2011
• Posts: 905
June 23rd, 2011 at 4:20:37 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

In a single-deck or double-deck game (or when a game is down to two decks or less),

Why do you think a game down to two decks or less is equivalent to a double or single deck game ?

In fact, unless you count cards, a 6 deck game plays the same for each hand regardless the number of cards left in the shoe.
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
• Posts: 2144
July 6th, 2011 at 5:24:12 PM permalink
Personally I nearly always hit as, at a good table, people prefer players that always do the same (and it thus makes the game more enjoyable and stops the "but the dealer would have bust" comments). But does anyone know, suppose one wanted to adopt a consistent strategy (and assuming flat betting) would it be better to always hit or always stick. In other words is the theoretical error of hitting when you should stand bigger than the error of standing when you should hit, given the natural variations of hands. (The wizard's simple rule of 2-cards hit and 3-cards stand is obviously better, but I'd rather explain simply that I "hit" 16s. We all know the trouble one gets explaining 12s!)
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
• Posts: 1246
July 6th, 2011 at 5:44:10 PM permalink
It's better to hit 16, given no knowledge about the cards remaining in the deck or on the table.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
• Posts: 2144
July 7th, 2011 at 3:29:47 AM permalink
Thanks - I know that "infinite deck" it's better to hit (UK .212 387 840 to .212 109 077), with the dealer yet to check for blackjack it's 21.211% chance of busting. The question is suppose the count naturally varies according to normal distribution, sometimes it will be +2x, +x, 0, -x, -2x. Say it was 2% wrong to hit when +ve, and only 1% wrong to stand when -ve, you'd be better off standing. Conversely 1% wrong to hit +ve, 2% wrong to stand -ve, better off hitting.
ddloml
Joined: Dec 5, 2009