DGenerate
DGenerate
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March 16th, 2011 at 3:57:41 PM permalink
I love the wizard of odds site, and wanted to ask the wizard a question, and was referred to this forum. Here's my question:

I was playing blackjack at Binions with the following rules:

-Single deck blackjack
-Blackjack pays 6:5
-No double after splits
-No surrender
-Dealer hits soft 17

Without telling me that I'm stupid for playing a 6:5 game, I'm curious if there's any situation where doubling a blackjack (instead of taking the 6:5 payout) is a good move? With a 5 or 6 showing? Maybe 2-4? There must be some strategy out there for a 6:5 table.
ItsCalledSoccer
ItsCalledSoccer
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March 16th, 2011 at 3:59:22 PM permalink
So ... you're thinking of giving up $6X/5 for an X% chance of $2X? Is that what you mean?
DGenerate
DGenerate
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March 16th, 2011 at 4:07:29 PM permalink
Yes. Seems like a good theory, but I don't know the math.
pacomartin
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March 16th, 2011 at 4:32:37 PM permalink
Quote: DGenerate


Without telling me that I'm stupid for playing a 6:5 game, I'm curious if there's any situation where doubling a blackjack (instead of taking the 6:5 payout) is a good move? With a 5 or 6 showing?



You can look at the Wizard of Odds appendix 9 for a given game.
For 6 decks, dealer hits on soft 17 the expected value for
dealer 6, player 10,A (worst dealer card)
standing is 1.500000
doubling is 0.667063

So the answer is even if standing only give you 1.2 or even 1.0 (blackjack pays even money) you are not better off doubling.

I don't think that is a stupid question. Now you know where to look (appendix 9 of wizard of odds website).
PapaChubby
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March 16th, 2011 at 4:33:34 PM permalink
I believe your question can be answered via the Wizard's blackjack appendix #1. Looking at doubling 11, the maximum expected return is 0.6674 betting units against a dealer's 6. I believe that this means that, on average, you can expect to get back the two units you are wagering plus an addition 0.6674 units in response to each double. Compare this to the 1.2 units you get back for the blackjack. Accepting the blackjack is the better deal, by far. Even if blackjacks only paid 75 cents on the dollar, it would still be wise to accept. Just not to play. Don't get any ideas, Vegas.

Edit: I knew that was going to happen!
pacomartin
pacomartin
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March 16th, 2011 at 4:37:41 PM permalink
Quote: PapaChubby


Edit: I knew that was going to happen!



Beat you by 60 seconds.
DGenerate
DGenerate
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March 16th, 2011 at 5:44:30 PM permalink
I'm still confused by the math. The expected return is .6674 plus your original wager. That means on a $10 wager, your expected return would be $16.67. This is better than the $12.00 paid for a blackjack, no?
ItsCalledSoccer
ItsCalledSoccer
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March 16th, 2011 at 5:48:28 PM permalink
Quote: DGenerate

I'm still confused by the math. The expected return is .6674 plus your original wager. That means on a $10 wager, your expected return would be $16.67. This is better than the $12.00 paid for a blackjack, no?



$12 + $10 (original bet returned) = $22.
miplet
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March 16th, 2011 at 5:49:00 PM permalink
Quote: DGenerate

I'm still confused by the math. The expected return is .6674 plus your original wager. That means on a $10 wager, your expected return would be $16.67. This is better than the $12.00 paid for a blackjack, no?


The expected value would be $6.67 for doubling vs $12 for staying.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
pacomartin
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March 16th, 2011 at 5:54:10 PM permalink
Quote: DGenerate

I'm still confused by the math. The expected return is .6674 plus your original wager. That means on a $10 wager, your expected return would be $16.67. This is better than the $12.00 paid for a blackjack, no?



Expected Value is .6674*$10.00 which is $10 + $6.67. The expected Value for the blackjack is 1.20*$10=$12 plus your original bet is $22.
DGenerate
DGenerate
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March 16th, 2011 at 5:54:24 PM permalink
I see. Dumb move on my part.

I got a 5, the dealer hit 20, the entire table lost, and the rest of the shoe (one more hand) was garbage. No more 6:5 tables for me.
DJTeddyBear
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March 17th, 2011 at 5:22:36 AM permalink
The only time I would consider doubling instead of taking a BJ, or splitting tens for that matter, is if I'm in a tournament. Because of the pre-determined number of hands, a different strategy is sometimes required.

It's still a bad move, but based upon stack sizes - including my opponent's stack sizes - it might be a viable option.

---

OK - there is one other time: If I'm at a $1 table. But that's more for the entertainment value of watching the other player's reaction.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Kellynbnf
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March 17th, 2011 at 7:15:27 AM permalink
I know of another time when it might be worth considering: If the next card to be dealt is exposed and you know it's 10-valued.
MarkAbe
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March 22nd, 2011 at 11:26:33 AM permalink
I actually saw somebody do this at a $1.00 table at the Sahara.
He said "Why can't I double my soft 21?"
After a rather hurried consult between the bewildered dealer and the pit boss, they let him do it.
He won.

I would not do it, even without doing all the math: Remember that basic strategy calls for standing, not doubling, on all soft 20's.
I just figured that with an even better hand, you would be even better off standing and not doubling.

It did have a great entertainment value for the rest of the table though.

Top Mark
DJTeddyBear
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March 22nd, 2011 at 12:28:13 PM permalink
Quote: MarkAbe

I actually saw somebody do this at a $1.00 table at the Sahara.
...
It did have a great entertainment value for the rest of the table though.

And the $1 tables at Sahara pay even money! That adds to the urge to get a better entertainment value...
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
benbakdoff
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March 22nd, 2011 at 2:28:17 PM permalink
There are card counters who double a soft 11 but not a blackjack and there is only one way to do it in a conventional game. I don't play with other counters if I can help it but sometimes it can't be avoided. If that took place at my table, I'd be gone as soon as the positive count ended. I don't need the extra scrutiny.
Toes14
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March 22nd, 2011 at 5:42:49 PM permalink
Quote: MarkAbe

"Why can't I double my soft 21?"



That's as funny as the craps dealer last month who called a hard nine! Boy did he catch it from his fellow dealers!
"Bite my Glorious Golden Ass!" - Bender Bending Rodriguez
teddys
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March 22nd, 2011 at 6:59:38 PM permalink
Quote: benbakdoff

There are card counters who double a soft 11 but not a blackjack and there is only one way to do it in a conventional game. I don't play with other counters if I can help it but sometimes it can't be avoided. If that took place at my table, I'd be gone as soon as the positive count ended. I don't need the extra scrutiny.

Ten on an ace after splitting aces, or ace on a ten after splitting tens. Talk about making controversial moves...
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
benbakdoff
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March 23rd, 2011 at 3:44:16 AM permalink
Quote: teddys

Ten on an ace after splitting aces, or ace on a ten after splitting tens. Talk about making controversial moves...



Yes indeed. I've never seen the former, but I've certainly seen the latter. It's quite rare and it definitely gets everyone's attention. I haven't witnessed it in a couple of years and trust me, that one had nothing to do with card counting.

Early morning drunks do have that certain je ne sais quoi.
Kellynbnf
Kellynbnf
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March 23rd, 2011 at 10:36:20 AM permalink
Quote: benbakdoff

Yes indeed. I've never seen the former, but I've certainly seen the latter. It's quite rare and it definitely gets everyone's attention. I haven't witnessed it in a couple of years and trust me, that one had nothing to do with card counting.

Early morning drunks do have that certain je ne sais quoi.



You usually don't see the former because most casinos don't allow doubling after splitting aces.
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