When is it a good time to quit???
January 25th, 2011 at 1:14:37 PM
permalink
Does anybody have a good rule for getting up from the blackjack table for someone playing basic strategy?
More specifically, assuming an initial stake of $100, $5 flat betting with basic strategy on a Vegas 3:2 table with six decks.
My goal is to get $100 up and as a rule will then leave the table.
The question is, how much can I get down before getting to my goal of $100 up becomes seriously improbable.
My gut feeling is that once I drop below $40-50 it is a good time to go.
However, I was just wondering if there was any math to backup the typically irrational gut.
And I do get that actually winning is mathematically improbable to start with.
------------------PLEASE SEE MY POST BELOW AS I TRIED TO CLARIFY MY QUESTION------------------
More specifically, assuming an initial stake of $100, $5 flat betting with basic strategy on a Vegas 3:2 table with six decks.
My goal is to get $100 up and as a rule will then leave the table.
The question is, how much can I get down before getting to my goal of $100 up becomes seriously improbable.
My gut feeling is that once I drop below $40-50 it is a good time to go.
However, I was just wondering if there was any math to backup the typically irrational gut.
And I do get that actually winning is mathematically improbable to start with.
------------------PLEASE SEE MY POST BELOW AS I TRIED TO CLARIFY MY QUESTION------------------
January 25th, 2011 at 2:48:25 PM
permalink
I play $5 (with 1,2,3,5x progression) and usually buy in for $300 and have at least another $500 backup. My own goal is $300. I have walked away after 20 minutes play once I hit $300.
I think the casinos thrives on people with limited funds. They are the ones sitting there playing $5 a hand, every hand, and not pressing , splitting or doubling down every chance they get. They lose, like you say, $40-50 and walk. I may be down $2-300 at some point but have the bankroll to continue play come back. I've played 4-5 hrs just to come back and break even. I think if you have to walk based on your bankroll you probably shouldn't be playing or expect to win very often.
For me, it's like a roller coaster. I'm either up $300 or down $300. It's just a matter of leaving when I am up.
I don't sit down unless I have at least $800-1000 and prepared to play 6-8hrs, if necessary. And that's at a $5 table!
Good luck to you.
I think the casinos thrives on people with limited funds. They are the ones sitting there playing $5 a hand, every hand, and not pressing , splitting or doubling down every chance they get. They lose, like you say, $40-50 and walk. I may be down $2-300 at some point but have the bankroll to continue play come back. I've played 4-5 hrs just to come back and break even. I think if you have to walk based on your bankroll you probably shouldn't be playing or expect to win very often.
For me, it's like a roller coaster. I'm either up $300 or down $300. It's just a matter of leaving when I am up.
I don't sit down unless I have at least $800-1000 and prepared to play 6-8hrs, if necessary. And that's at a $5 table!
Good luck to you.
January 25th, 2011 at 2:56:36 PM
permalink
Are you using a count strategy of some type?
January 25th, 2011 at 2:57:38 PM
permalink
Quote: MrZippy1023Does anybody have a good rule for getting up from the blackjack table for someone playing basic strategy?
More specifically, assuming an initial stake of $100, $5 flat betting with basic strategy on a Vegas 3:2 table with six decks.
My goal is to get $100 up and as a rule will then leave the table.
The question is, how much can I get down before getting to my goal of $100 up becomes seriously improbable.
My gut feeling is that once I drop below $40-50 it is a good time to go.
However, I was just wondering if there was any math to backup the typically irrational gut.
And I do get that actually winning is mathematically improbable to start with.
A $50 loss = 10 consecutive losses. I've seen 10 consecutive losses in BJ using perfect strategy so many times I wanted to puke. I've seen players martingale 10 consecutive losses and look much worse. You should leave when:
1.) The game no longer becomes fun.
2.) When the players / dealers stink literally or figuratively
3.) When you hit a predetermined loss limit based on your own risk tolerance.
If you're thinking of leaving at a $50 loss, your risk tolerance is probably even less than that. It might be somewhere around $25 or 5 losses. See how you feel at walking away from the table at a $25 loss, and clear your head before jumping into the next game. I caveat one thing though, setting a win goal of 1X bankroll seems a bit aggressive to me. Assuming I'm up in BJ, I walk when I:
1.) obnoxious people enter the game
2.) shoe ends and new shuffle begins
3.) and from a dollar perspective, I lose 50% of the peak value of my profit starting from a profit level of $40 (at $5 mins). Under $40, I keep going.
January 26th, 2011 at 8:42:46 AM
permalink
Thank you for the considered responses,
However, I wanted to clarify my question as my interest is really independent of actual specifics regarding initial stake, min bets and when to walk away.
What I was interested in is with an initial bank roll starting at X and a fixed goal of Y what is the mathematical probability of actually achieving it, and does the probability of getting to my goal of Y increase, decrease, or remain the same depending on the positive or negative changes in bank roll of X.
In other words, is there math to support my notion or hunch that the further I get from a goal of Y the probability of not achieving it increases? And is that decrease in probability a straight line or a curve.
As I keep reading about blackjack, you keep hearing that playing by your gut is a bad idea. So the intent here is to have a better understanding of the dynamics of the game in order to make realistic decisions at the table. Intent is to reasonably set a goals and to understand when your chances to get there have become unreasonable. I am just looking for something, if possible that is more informed than my ever expanding gut.
I am no math genius so if my question is ridiculous then please tell me so and I will gladly go away.
Thanks again for your consideration
However, I wanted to clarify my question as my interest is really independent of actual specifics regarding initial stake, min bets and when to walk away.
What I was interested in is with an initial bank roll starting at X and a fixed goal of Y what is the mathematical probability of actually achieving it, and does the probability of getting to my goal of Y increase, decrease, or remain the same depending on the positive or negative changes in bank roll of X.
In other words, is there math to support my notion or hunch that the further I get from a goal of Y the probability of not achieving it increases? And is that decrease in probability a straight line or a curve.
As I keep reading about blackjack, you keep hearing that playing by your gut is a bad idea. So the intent here is to have a better understanding of the dynamics of the game in order to make realistic decisions at the table. Intent is to reasonably set a goals and to understand when your chances to get there have become unreasonable. I am just looking for something, if possible that is more informed than my ever expanding gut.
I am no math genius so if my question is ridiculous then please tell me so and I will gladly go away.
Thanks again for your consideration
January 26th, 2011 at 9:59:58 AM
permalink
No such thing as a ridiculous question. Not sure there's a good answer though. Odds are against you even winning!
"When my search for an old-fashioned 21 table took me to the upscale Venetian, I found a couple of high-stakes tables offering a decent game of double-deck blackjack. But with a $200 minimum bet -- and figuring that a blackjack bankroll ought to be 50 times the basic wager — $10,000 seemed like an excessive amount to risk for a few hours of honest fun." LA Times
I have heard 10x (if you flat bet) all the way to 200X base bet (based on 20hrs play).
Lots of variables. I play in Canada and Vegas. BIG DIFFERENCE! I lose 10 hands in a row in Vegas & I walk and go to another of a thousand other tables. In Canada, you don't have that luxury. You walk from one table and there may not be another BJ table open.
Basic strategy & your betting strategy is a big factor too.
I play basic strategy by the book. I also bet 1x, 2x, 3x, 5x ($5-$25). I go back to 1x if I lose or win 5x. These people that guess and "think" make me crazy. "Oh, I thought the dealer had a 5 underneath." WT.....? My system works for me. No guessing or crystal balling.
Now I am just rambling. Good question and good luck with the answer.
"When my search for an old-fashioned 21 table took me to the upscale Venetian, I found a couple of high-stakes tables offering a decent game of double-deck blackjack. But with a $200 minimum bet -- and figuring that a blackjack bankroll ought to be 50 times the basic wager — $10,000 seemed like an excessive amount to risk for a few hours of honest fun." LA Times
I have heard 10x (if you flat bet) all the way to 200X base bet (based on 20hrs play).
Lots of variables. I play in Canada and Vegas. BIG DIFFERENCE! I lose 10 hands in a row in Vegas & I walk and go to another of a thousand other tables. In Canada, you don't have that luxury. You walk from one table and there may not be another BJ table open.
Basic strategy & your betting strategy is a big factor too.
I play basic strategy by the book. I also bet 1x, 2x, 3x, 5x ($5-$25). I go back to 1x if I lose or win 5x. These people that guess and "think" make me crazy. "Oh, I thought the dealer had a 5 underneath." WT.....? My system works for me. No guessing or crystal balling.
Now I am just rambling. Good question and good luck with the answer.
January 26th, 2011 at 10:44:02 AM
permalink
Quote: MrZippy1023Does anybody have a good rule for getting up from the blackjack table for someone playing basic strategy?
Not really. Well, when you have seen a lot of aces come up recently. You don't have to count, but just avoiding playing in a seriously cold shoe can save you a lot of money.
Quote: MrZippy1023My goal is to get $100 up and as a rule will then leave the table.
The question is, how much can I get down before getting to my goal of $100 up becomes seriously improbable.
There is no hard limit really. I've been down to 62 bets not so long ago, with a bankroll of 200 bets - and left with 210. Didn't want to try my luck or rather nerves further, one close call (I had a soft stop loss at 40 bets, so that was 22 till the curtains) is enough for one day. That's not counting outright miraculous recoveries from the last few bets.
Variance in Blackjack is massive, going down to 1/3 and up to 2x the bankroll in a session is nothing unusual.
As a general rule, I suggest quitting when one is down to 20x average bet, or 40x base bet, but since you start out with less than 40x, that's clearly not an option. You should hard-quit when you have less than 4 bets (or better 6), though, since past that you can't take full advantage of doubles and splits.
Resist ANFO Boston PRISM Stormfront IRA Freedom CIA Obama
January 26th, 2011 at 11:03:55 AM
permalink
Let's say you start at $100, tying to get to $200. Assuming BJ is a coin flip (which it isn't, but it's close enough), you probability of achieving your goal before going bust is 50%.
If you start at $50, trying to get to $200, your probability of success is 50/200 = 25%. Your CURRENT bankroll is a big factor in trying to get to some preset win goal.
In general, your probability of success is (current bankroll) / Y.
So, let's say you want at least a 10% chance of getting back to $200, you need to leave at $20.
But... if your stop loss is at $20, your bankroll X isn't actually $100, it's only $80, which adjusts the initial probabilities. That is, you are only fooling yourself if you go in with $100, thinking that is your bankroll, when you plan to leave if you drop to $40. It's good practice to have a stop point, and the higher it is the less you lose, but for calculating the original probability of success, you have to use your real bankroll.
Say you plan to only lose $60, or win $100. probability of success is 60/(100+60) = 37.5%
If you start at $50, trying to get to $200, your probability of success is 50/200 = 25%. Your CURRENT bankroll is a big factor in trying to get to some preset win goal.
In general, your probability of success is (current bankroll) / Y.
So, let's say you want at least a 10% chance of getting back to $200, you need to leave at $20.
But... if your stop loss is at $20, your bankroll X isn't actually $100, it's only $80, which adjusts the initial probabilities. That is, you are only fooling yourself if you go in with $100, thinking that is your bankroll, when you plan to leave if you drop to $40. It's good practice to have a stop point, and the higher it is the less you lose, but for calculating the original probability of success, you have to use your real bankroll.
Say you plan to only lose $60, or win $100. probability of success is 60/(100+60) = 37.5%
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
January 26th, 2011 at 1:22:15 PM
permalink
Quote: MrZippy1023Does anybody have a good rule for getting up from the blackjack table for someone playing basic strategy?
More specifically, assuming an initial stake of $100, $5 flat betting with basic strategy on a Vegas 3:2 table with six decks.
My goal is to get $100 up and as a rule will then leave the table.
The question is, how much can I get down before getting to my goal of $100 up becomes seriously improbable.
My gut feeling is that once I drop below $40-50 it is a good time to go.
However, I was just wondering if there was any math to backup the typically irrational gut.
And I do get that actually winning is mathematically improbable to start with.
No. I have one rule: if I get up, say $50, on BJ or any slot, I never quit with a loss. I will cash out with a $5 profit. Even a $1 profit on a slot. Nothing worse than turning a good win into an actual loss.
------------------PLEASE SEE MY POST BELOW AS I TRIED TO CLARIFY MY QUESTION------------------
