goldschly
goldschly
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January 7th, 2025 at 6:04:34 PM permalink
I came across this at a Mexico casino. You were able to match your main bet on a bet that the dealer would bust but you actually got to see the dealers up card first. I know this has to be a positive expectation bet when the dealer has a 5 or 6. I would like to know what the actual advantage is and basic strategy for this side bet?

They also offer double down on 3 or more cards like in Spanish 21 and surrender. Combined I got to think this is a positive expectation game for the player right off the top. Anyone else ever here off this side bet?

Thanks
AutomaticMonkey
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January 7th, 2025 at 6:16:00 PM permalink
I am familiar with similar bets. There is no upcard where a dealer is more likely to bust than not. Nor are DD on any number of cards or surrender sufficient to make a typical blackjack game +EV for the player.
zbrownson
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January 7th, 2025 at 6:20:41 PM permalink
Sounds like EZ Bust. https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/side-bets/ez-bust/ Even with a dealer showing a six they will only bust 42% of the time. This bet is popular in a lot of places. The perception of a player edge is very real.
goldschly
goldschly
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January 7th, 2025 at 6:39:15 PM permalink
Wow I didn’t realize that it is still that much of a negative expectation ( I swear I bust 70% of the time with a 6 lol)I will have to check out at what count it becomes positive, maybe +3? Anyway it is still an excellent game and pays 3:2. Shouldn’t take much spread to make it worth playing

Thanks!
zbrownson
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January 7th, 2025 at 6:58:40 PM permalink
My guess is the lower up-cards pay 3:2. If the payouts vary based on upcard it might be a slightly different game, perhaps https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/side-bets/bet-the-bust/. If the 5 or 6 pay 3:2 there is definitely a player edge and it wouldn't be around very long
Deucekies
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January 7th, 2025 at 7:42:52 PM permalink
Quote: zbrownson

Sounds like EZ Bust. https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/side-bets/ez-bust/ Even with a dealer showing a six they will only bust 42% of the time. This bet is popular in a lot of places. The perception of a player edge is very real.
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Could be Bust Bonus too.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/side-bets/bust-bonus/

Quote: zbrownson

My guess is the lower up-cards pay 3:2. If the payouts vary based on upcard it might be a slightly different game, perhaps https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/side-bets/bet-the-bust/. If the 5 or 6 pay 3:2 there is definitely a player edge and it wouldn't be around very long
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Pretty sure the OP means that blackjacks pay 3:2, not the bonus.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
DogHand
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January 7th, 2025 at 11:33:56 PM permalink
Quote: goldschly

Wow I didn’t realize that it is still that much of a negative expectation ( I swear I bust 70% of the time with a 6 lol)I will have to check out at what count it becomes positive, maybe +3? Anyway it is still an excellent game and pays 3:2. Shouldn’t take much spread to make it worth playing

Thanks!
link to original post


goldschly,

The figure below shows the bust rate for the different dealer updates as a function of the HiLo true count for a 6D H17 game. As you can see, the bust rate exceeds 50% (making the sidebet +EV) at TC's of +9 and above for dealer upcards of 5 & 6... don't hold your breath waiting for it to happen ;-)



I originally posted this figure at https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/showthread.php?18218-Dealer-Upcard-Probability-Bust-Rate-and-Bust-Frequency-vs-HiLo-TC. Follow the link for more information.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand
goldschly
goldschly
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January 8th, 2025 at 8:18:26 AM permalink
Ok thanks Doghand very helpful .
Yeah +9 is very rare but every once in awhile when you have a big bet out this could come into play I suppose.
Oh well at least now I know…

Surprised this isn’t a more popular side bet in casinos as it i would suck in a lot of players I would think… really seems intuitively like the player has an edge
goldschly
goldschly
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January 8th, 2025 at 8:20:40 AM permalink
Yeah I meant 3:2 blackjack
Brickapotamus
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January 13th, 2025 at 12:01:04 AM permalink
Unless you already live in Mexico, a concern I would have about any advantage play opportunity there would be can I legally get any winnings out of the country & also could I get any winnings out of the casino and country alive?
DRich
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January 13th, 2025 at 6:58:59 AM permalink
Quote: Brickapotamus

Unless you already live in Mexico, a concern I would have about any advantage play opportunity there would be can I legally get any winnings out of the country & also could I get any winnings out of the casino and country alive?
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Very naive, I am guessing that you haven't spent much time exploring Mexico. Mexico is not a third world country. Mexico has the 13th highest GDP on the planet.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
camapl
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January 13th, 2025 at 2:45:13 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: Brickapotamus

Unless you already live in Mexico, a concern I would have about any advantage play opportunity there would be can I legally get any winnings out of the country & also could I get any winnings out of the casino and country alive?
link to original post



Very naive, I am guessing that you haven't spent much time exploring Mexico. Mexico is not a third world country. Mexico has the 13th highest GDP on the planet.
link to original post



How much of that GDP comes from kidnappings…?
It’s a dog eat dog world. …Or maybe it’s the other way around!
DRich
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January 13th, 2025 at 2:57:29 PM permalink
Quote: camapl

Quote: DRich

Quote: Brickapotamus

Unless you already live in Mexico, a concern I would have about any advantage play opportunity there would be can I legally get any winnings out of the country & also could I get any winnings out of the casino and country alive?
link to original post



Very naive, I am guessing that you haven't spent much time exploring Mexico. Mexico is not a third world country. Mexico has the 13th highest GDP on the planet.
link to original post



How much of that GDP comes from kidnappings…?
link to original post



I am guessing that you also have not spent much time in Mexico. I have probably been to Mexico about 30 times and the worst thing that has happened is someone sold me an overpriced bottle of tequila.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
camapl
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January 13th, 2025 at 3:27:15 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: camapl

Quote: DRich

Quote: Brickapotamus

Unless you already live in Mexico, a concern I would have about any advantage play opportunity there would be can I legally get any winnings out of the country & also could I get any winnings out of the casino and country alive?
link to original post



Very naive, I am guessing that you haven't spent much time exploring Mexico. Mexico is not a third world country. Mexico has the 13th highest GDP on the planet.
link to original post



How much of that GDP comes from kidnappings…?
link to original post



I am guessing that you also have not spent much time in Mexico. I have probably been to Mexico about 30 times and the worst thing that has happened is someone sold me an overpriced bottle of tequila.
link to original post



Did that make the hangover worse?
It’s a dog eat dog world. …Or maybe it’s the other way around!
DRich
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January 13th, 2025 at 5:13:30 PM permalink
Quote: camapl

Quote: DRich



I am guessing that you also have not spent much time in Mexico. I have probably been to Mexico about 30 times and the worst thing that has happened is someone sold me an overpriced bottle of tequila.
link to original post



Did that make the hangover worse?
link to original post



No, I was just pissed because I was buying a "special" bottle for a friend that they said isn't sold in the U.S. and it was in a fancy decorative bottle. i paid 1000 pesos (about $50) and thought I was getting a good gift. It turns out you can buy the same bottle for $40 in Las Vegas liquor stores.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Dieter
Administrator
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January 14th, 2025 at 12:30:52 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: camapl

Quote: DRich



I am guessing that you also have not spent much time in Mexico. I have probably been to Mexico about 30 times and the worst thing that has happened is someone sold me an overpriced bottle of tequila.
link to original post



Did that make the hangover worse?
link to original post



No, I was just pissed because I was buying a "special" bottle for a friend that they said isn't sold in the U.S. and it was in a fancy decorative bottle. i paid 1000 pesos (about $50) and thought I was getting a good gift. It turns out you can buy the same bottle for $40 in Las Vegas liquor stores.
link to original post



The real gift is the rudely applied misaligned tax stamp when you cross the border, so they know you care.
May the cards fall in your favor.
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