Which is more likely for an Ap player with a bankroll of $500

Administrator advice. Please. What are the chances that an AP player will go bust with a bankroll of $500 and a bet spread of 2-5 with the units being $20 having the top bet out a +5 before he is 3 wins ahead. Hope that is a little more clear.

Now if I just wanted to make that 3 hands ahead aday just to keep my self from working... What is the possibility that I will be three hands ahead every day for a week.

My estimate for the probability of the loss of bankroll is about 12%.

Quote: blackjackgolden

Now if I just wanted to make that 3 hands ahead aday just to keep my self from working... What is the possibility that I will be three hands ahead every day for a week.

+$60 bucks a day every 9 out of 10 days, -$500 every tenth day on average? Well, that's about a whooping $150/per month.
I think, if your goal is to keep yourself from working, you'll be better off collecting welfare.

Estimate isnt enough I have sat on casino verite games, many other blackjack games, live casino action, and handheld practice games at home and I have reach the goal each and every time!

I guess, you either got extremely lucky, or are being less than extremely honest then.

Quote: blackjackgolden

Estimate isnt enough I have sat on casino verite games, many other blackjack games, live casino action, and handheld practice games at home and I have reach the goal each and every time!

Out of how many sessions? A few dozen?

Don't delude yourself into thinking there's a guarantee that you'll always be +3 bets. That'll be an expensive delusion for you some day.

I dont think it is either... I put the system up as using the hi lo count as it would be much easier for beginners... I do not use the high low count, I use a variation of the Gordon count with a playing efficiency much higher than than the highest system that does not use any side counts.

Playing efficiency isn't a goal by itself. At your level of playing, you are going to have about 1% advantage if you play perfectly, regardless of what counting system you use. A complex one may give you 1.05%, while a simpler one will be only 0.95%. The difference you can expect playing every day is about $7/per month.
But that's only if you play perfectly, which is an a lot harder feat to pull with complex systems like Gordon count, and mistakes there are VERY costly.
So, in reality, I would expect you to make less money with Gordon count than with Hi-Lo.