ckjy
ckjy
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December 17th, 2010 at 12:33:39 PM permalink
The Hi-Lo count shows a decrease of the house edge by about 0.50% for each increase of 1 in the true count. What percentage of this is attributed to utilizing strategy deviations, and to increasing your bets?

The Wizard's simplified Ace-5 count simulation showed a small player edge following liberal rules but no basic strategy deviation. Is it even worthwhile to learn the basic strategy variations if you are a recreational small-bettor blackjack player?
teddys
teddys
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December 17th, 2010 at 2:40:27 PM permalink
<deleted>
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
benbakdoff
benbakdoff
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December 17th, 2010 at 2:58:13 PM permalink
I can't help you on the first question but I am sure someone else will weigh in.

Since you mentioned Hi-Lo and the Ace-5 count, I'm assuming shoe games hopefully with S17 and surrender. If HI-Lo is your choice, look up the Illustrious 18 and the Fab 4 surrenders on the Wizard of Odds website. If you don't want to learn them all, I suggest concentrating on the most valuable ones. At the top of the list is the insurance decision at a TC of +3.

It doesn't matter how small a bettor you are because beating the house at their own game is very satisfying at any level.
weaselman
weaselman
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December 17th, 2010 at 2:59:26 PM permalink
Quote: ckjy

Is it even worthwhile to learn the basic strategy variations if you are a recreational small-bettor blackjack player?


Depends on what you mean by "worthwhile" and "small bettor". If your definitions are close to mine, it's not even worth the effort to count, leave alone learn the indexes.
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
ckjy
ckjy
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December 20th, 2010 at 11:13:20 AM permalink
What I mean is, the ace-5 count is enough to turn Blacjack into a positive expectation game under average playing conditions.

The hi-lo count without strategy deviation is only marginally more difficult to learn than the ace-5. How much better is the hi-lo without strategy deviation, than the ace-5 count?
benbakdoff
benbakdoff
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December 20th, 2010 at 2:45:37 PM permalink
Using the Ace-5 count would require a large betting spread and a low house edge to even consider breaking even. Think less than .30%. If that's ok then you'll be playing for comps.

Hi-Lo can overcome the house edge. How much depends on your level of effort. In a decent game you could earn gas money or you could use index play, wonging , and aggressive bet spreading and have over a 1% advantage. After mastering Hi-Lo there's no reason not to learn the Illustrious 18 and Fab 4 Surrender. Start with the insurance decision and add another whenever you are comfortable. If you wong out, you won't even need all 18.

They say card counters are a dying breed but opportunities still exist.
DrEntropy
DrEntropy
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December 20th, 2010 at 11:08:14 PM permalink
To answer the original question: Gains from strategy deviations ('index plays') depend on the number of decks in play and on the bet spread, among other things! For a simple example, consider 6D with liberal rules (S17,DAS,RSA),75% pen, no surrender. Lets assume you spread 1-5. With full indexes, you will win at a rate of 0.53% of your average bet.
With NO indexes (just play basic strategy), win rate is reduced to 0.35%

(Results from CVCX simulation)

As far as I can determine, there are no indexes for Ace-5 that can really provide any benefit. The playing efficiency is only 0.052
"Mathematical expectation has nothing to do with results." (Sklansky, Theory of Poker).
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