Help A Noob

What are the odds I can win 4 blackjack hands total before I lose 4 in a row? I know this is a terrible strategy, just trying to understand the math formula to calculate this. 4 losses in a row occur roughly 1 in 13 hands. What is the other part?

1 in 13 is a pretty rough estimate, but you have to factor in doubles and splits and that is beyond me.

Quote: XDHafu

What are the odds I can win 4 blackjack hands total before I lose 4 in a row? I know this is a terrible strategy, just trying to understand the math formula to calculate this. 4 losses in a row occur roughly 1 in 13 hands. What is the other part?
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Any question of this sort that is about blackjack needs LOTS more information before an accurate answer can be derived, if someone wants to do that work for you….
1. What are the RULES of the game? Dealer hits soft 17? Split up to 2 times, 3 times, 4 times? Surrender allowed? Double on any total?
2. How many decks are being used? CSM?
3. How do you count splits?
4. Does doubling down change anything?
5. Are you using a strategy designed to ‘just win’, or using ‘basic strategy’? Example being Ace3 versus a 6 would be a double down, but to just maximize the chance of winning you would just hit in case you draw a low card and want to hit again.
6. Etc…. But my finger hurts from typing….

The real question is…. why would you possibly care about the answer to your question?

Those are all good points. I'm just curious and trying to understand the basic probability of the question.

The wizard states that the odds of losing 4 blackjack hands in a row without pushes is 0.5364. That to the fourth power yields .046 = roughly 1 in 13.

The probability of winning a hand is 0.4636+ 0.4636+0.4636+0.4636= 8.6 hands. Can't figure out the rest.

You could have 4 split hands doubled down on against a 6. Your question seems moot. But for non-split, non- double down, non- BJ hands, it's easy to see the losing hands add up fast.

Am I the only one that sees an opposite similarity between this noob thread and yesterday’s thread: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/36866-what-am-i-doing-wrong/

Hmmm…. 🤔

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Am I the only one that sees an opposite similarity between this noob thread and yesterday’s thread: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/36866-what-am-i-doing-wrong/

Hmmm…. 🤔
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Please don't rely on progressive wagering to try to assure a win.

If this is for a "progressive betting" scheme, be advised that those don't work in real world conditions.

Try following MDawg on here as he wins hundreds of thousands against all odds.