RonMiel
RonMiel
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 3
Joined: Oct 2, 2021
October 2nd, 2021 at 11:10:29 PM permalink
In a game of Blackjack, assuming you follow optimum strategy, what is the % chance of winning a hand?

I don't mean the EV.

Suppose you play 10,000 hands, following optimum strategy. For each hand you just mark down whether you win, lose or push, and ignore the amount of money. If you beat the dealer, it's 1 in the wins column. If you double down and win, it's still just 1 in the wins. Get Blackjack, and it's still 1 win. How many hands can you expect in each category?

Yes, I googled it. Every calculation I've seen shows the EV, which isn't what I want.

If it makes a significant difference, say 8 decks, dealer stands on soft 17, no surrender.
Romes
Romes
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 5612
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
October 3rd, 2021 at 12:06:13 AM permalink
Googled "percentage hands win and loss in blackjack basic strategy" and it came back with the %'s...
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 64
  • Posts: 7539
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
Thanked by
RonMiel
October 3rd, 2021 at 2:15:09 AM permalink
Quote: RonMiel

In a game of Blackjack, assuming you follow optimum strategy, what is the % chance of winning a hand?

  • link to original post


    Ron,
    I believe the answer you seek is at
    https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/blackjack/probability/
    Quote: wizardofodds.com

    According to my blackjack appendix 4, the probability of an overall win in blackjack is 42.22%, a tie is 8.48%, and a loss is 49.10%. I'm going to assume you wish to ignore ties for purposes of the streak. In that case, the probability of a win, given a resolved bet, is 46.36%.


    That was quoting from https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/variance/ which I think was based on 6 decks. There won't be much difference for 8 decks or even infinite decks, maybe the second decimal place.

    If you propose to use this knowledge in some progressive system, give it up now.
    Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
    SOOPOO
    SOOPOO
    • Threads: 123
    • Posts: 11488
    Joined: Aug 8, 2010
    October 3rd, 2021 at 6:03:08 AM permalink
    Quote: RonMiel

    In a game of Blackjack, assuming you follow optimum strategy, what is the % chance of winning a hand?

    I don't mean the EV.

    Suppose you play 10,000 hands, following optimum strategy. For each hand you just mark down whether you win, lose or push, and ignore the amount of money. If you beat the dealer, it's 1 in the wins column. If you double down and win, it's still just 1 in the wins. Get Blackjack, and it's still 1 win. How many hands can you expect in each category?

    Yes, I googled it. Every calculation I've seen shows the EV, which isn't what I want.

    If it makes a significant difference, say 8 decks, dealer stands on soft 17, no surrender.

  • link to original post



    Unanswerable question unless you tell us how to handle splits.
    Dieter
    Administrator
    Dieter
    • Threads: 16
    • Posts: 6042
    Joined: Jul 23, 2014
    October 3rd, 2021 at 8:01:26 AM permalink
    I have always found these charts to be useful.

    And the summary: Around 42% chance of the player winning a hand, when following basic strategy.
    May the cards fall in your favor.
    RonMiel
    RonMiel
    • Threads: 1
    • Posts: 3
    Joined: Oct 2, 2021
    October 3rd, 2021 at 8:22:12 AM permalink
    Quote: OnceDear

    Quote: RonMiel

    In a game of Blackjack, assuming you follow optimum strategy, what is the % chance of winning a hand?

  • link to original post


    Ron,
    I believe the answer you seek is at
    /ask-the-wizard/blackjack/probability/

    That was quoting from /games/blackjack/variance/ which I think was based on 6 decks. There won't be much difference for 8 decks or even infinite decks, maybe the second decimal place.

    If you propose to use this knowledge in some progressive system, give it up now.
  • link to original post




    Thank you for this. No progressive system, I'm just involved in a discussion on another forum.

    One question, does the table have an omission? Isn't a win of 2.5 possible, where you split aces, get blackjack on one, and win the other?
    OnceDear
    OnceDear
    • Threads: 64
    • Posts: 7539
    Joined: Jun 1, 2014
    Thanked by
    RonMiel
    October 3rd, 2021 at 8:52:16 AM permalink
    Quote: RonMiel

    Thank you for this. No progressive system, I'm just involved in a discussion on another forum.

    One question, does the table have an omission? Isn't a win of 2.5 possible, where you split aces, get blackjack on one, and win the other?

  • link to original post


    Generally no. If you split aces and draw a ten or face, it counts as 21, not Blackjack.
    Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
    RonMiel
    RonMiel
    • Threads: 1
    • Posts: 3
    Joined: Oct 2, 2021
    October 3rd, 2021 at 9:30:52 AM permalink
    That makes sense. It's been a while since I played, so I forgot that point.
    Dieter
    Administrator
    Dieter
    • Threads: 16
    • Posts: 6042
    Joined: Jul 23, 2014
    October 3rd, 2021 at 9:37:08 AM permalink
    Quote: RonMiel


    One question, does the table have an omission? Isn't a win of 2.5 possible, where you split aces, get blackjack on one, and win the other?

  • link to original post



    Quote:

    For each hand you just mark down whether you win, lose or push, and ignore the amount of money. If you beat the dealer, it's 1 in the wins column. If you double down and win, it's still just 1 in the wins. Get Blackjack, and it's still 1 win.



    A blackjack counts as 1 win. A 6:5 blackjack counts as 1 win. A winning 2 card 21 counts as 1 win.

    Adjusting for a 3:2 payout to count as more than 1 win gets into EV; I believe the initial question specifically attempted to avoid that.
    May the cards fall in your favor.
    jackace
    jackace
    • Threads: 1
    • Posts: 8
    Joined: Nov 23, 2021
    November 23rd, 2021 at 2:45:56 PM permalink
    You can potentially win 8x your initial bet. You can usually split three times for up to 4 hands and if the casino allows double after splits, you can win 2x on each hand.
    Jack Hayes
    teliot
    teliot
    • Threads: 43
    • Posts: 2871
    Joined: Oct 19, 2009
    November 23rd, 2021 at 3:58:48 PM permalink
    Quote: jackace

    You can potentially win 8x your initial bet. You can usually split three times for up to 4 hands and if the casino allows double after splits, you can win 2x on each hand.
    link to original post


    I give answers in this article for 2 and 6 decks.
    https://www.888casino.com/blog/blackjack-tips/blackjack-combinatorial-analysis-by-simulation
    Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
    • Jump to: