Statistic Request:

I'm aware that a higher true count is more favorable to the player overall, but I assume that this advantage is not the same for every hand. Specifically, I'm wondering if there are hands that become worse for the player as the true count gets higher, or conversely hands that get better for the player as the true count gets lower. Ideally I'm looking for a chart of player hand vs dealer up where the cells say how much better for the player that specific hand gets as the true count increases.

Does anyone know if a chart like this exists? Or if it's only a few hands does anyone know what they are? If someone wants to run some simulations the specific rules are 6 deck, H17, split up to 4 hands, no das, 75% penetration, using basic strategy with no deviations, although I'm guessing the rules don't matter that much.

This is just a curiosity and has no use in the casino ;) Any insights would be much appreciated. Thanks guys.

Quote: PopeDCM

I'm aware that a higher true count is more favorable to the player overall, but I assume that this advantage is not the same for every hand. Specifically, I'm wondering if there are hands that become worse for the player as the true count gets higher, or conversely hands that get better for the player as the true count gets lower. Ideally I'm looking for a chart of player hand vs dealer up where the cells say how much better for the player that specific hand gets as the true count increases.

Does anyone know if a chart like this exists? Or if it's only a few hands does anyone know what they are? If someone wants to run some simulations the specific rules are 6 deck, H17, split up to 4 hands, no das, 75% penetration, using basic strategy with no deviations, although I'm guessing the rules don't matter that much.

This is just a curiosity and has no use in the casino ;) Any insights would be much appreciated. Thanks guys.

interesting question. At higher true counts your double downs get better cards, the dealer will bust more often and you will get more blackjacks. Hence your edge will increase in double down situations. Likewise your edge will increase when the dealer has an upcard 2 through 6 and you have a made hand, e.g 17 v. 6.

I would guess that on those hands where basic strategy says to hit but at a sufficiently high true count you stand, the edge goes down when the true count goes up. For example 12 v. 3, 15 v. T and so on.

Other hands like 9v7, 8v7 will also get better.

Quote: PopeDCM

I'm wondering if there are hands that become worse for the player as the true count gets higher,

...

using basic strategy with no deviations

Look more closely at the deviations.
Hitting any bustable hand obviously gets less and less valuable with a higher count, and surrender (if available) gets to be a better play.

What I've read on the forum says I should count cards for that extra per cent or two. I don't do that. But this is the second time I've started out way ahead on a negative count and losing big on a positive count. It will even out later I guess.


I guess I should pause and reconsider how far ahead I am. I had been buying in for $10K sessions. Since I'm at $150K, I could lower my buy-ins to $2500, so I'd have 60 buy-ins of 25 hands or a 1500 hand bankroll, instead of just 375 hands.
Since my nearest betting chart is for the $100-$10K/$20K table, the buy-ins will be $3250, so I'll have 46 sessions of 25 hands, or an 1150 hands bankroll.
Bah, I can't do the math in my head while playing so I'll stick to the $10K buy-ins and hope for a quarter million dollar winner session.

I think Norm Wattenberger might have a chart like this in his book. Modern Blackjack

Alright guys, thanks for the input. After looking at the deviations, I have 12 vs 2 or 3 being worse as tc increases. I also started with the surrender deviations also being worse and eventually ended up making all the hit hands above player 11 being worse, as well as 17 vs 8+, 18 vs 9+, 19 vs 10+, and 20 vs A. I'm not sure about 17 vs 7, 18 vs 8 etc, they're right between the obviously getting better 17 vs 6 and the obviously getting worse 17 vs 8. Below the double downs I have the 10 vs 10 or A being beneficial as tc increases, along with 9 vs up to 8 and 8 vs up to 7.

The 10 vs 10 double down deviation makes me believe 9 vs 9 and 8 vs 8 also gets better for the player, but I'm not sure. Also the 10 vs A double down deviation makes me wonder about 9 vs 10 or A and 8 vs those higher ones as well.

Does this all sound right so far? And any idea about how to go about this for soft hands? I'm thinking the stands for dealer up < player soft total - 10 get better as tc increases, the other stands get worse, just like the hard 17+ hands (if we're going to stand it might as well be treated as a hard hand) and the hits and doubles all get better? It'd probably be easier if I was more familiar with the full set of deviations.

Quote: Hunterhill

I think Norm Wattenberger might have a chart like this in his book. Modern Blackjack

That book has a chart for everything lol any idea which part of the book it'd be in?