I generally don't back count. I think it looks too unnatural. 1. My usual method is to play off the top of a new shuffle.
2. There are two exception. One would be if I happen to walk by a table and see many small cards on the felt. Stanford. Wong did some work that tells us any cards played prior that we did not see is basically the same as more cards behind the cut card, essentially lower penetration. So you can have an advantage just from the round you see, making it worth joining or at least worth checking out another round.
3. Number of players. We all know the advantages of heads up play but I actually prefer 1 other player reason being that heads up when you exit aggressively on negative counts if you are heads up the game stops with all eyes on you as you exit. With 1 other player the game goes on as you exit drawing less attention.
Very well laid out.
1. Suppose you walk up to an empty table and shoe is 1/2 played. Do you ask for a shuffle? Is this common? Or do you move on to the next table or casino?
2.) Is it fair to assume this method only works early in the shoe?
3.) Now I know why some players want me to stay. I leave. They leave. I come back. They come back.
On average, how many casinos to you visit per day.? Sessions?
Hands per year?
Anyway, where does your first bet increase begin? How much do you spread between that point of intervals and your max bet?
Do you spread to two hands?
For instance, I spread to $100 for two hands at 59% or about 2.17 TC.. $150 at 60% or 2.5 TC. $200 at 67% TC. I get 6% increased bets and 94% min. bets. But a new idea I picked up from you and Bosox allow me to increase to 8% without giving up quality deck composition.
I am not going to post my actual spread again. I think that might be too identifying. I have done so in the past, you can probably find it of you want. Doesn't really matter. I max bet at +4 t.c (Hilo). The intervals don't even matter exactly what you bet. Just get at least half max bet out by +2 or +3 and you are good.
Please note the specifity of "las Vegas shoe games". If I am playing double deck some things change for that circumstances. If I am playing out of town (as I currently am) things change for that lack of immediate new game close by.
If you want to know how things might change to accommodate those specific circumstances, I could expand into that but would rather wait until I am home in a few days and have more time (and don't have to post on phone).
Moses, I know I promised to expand on this once I returned home and had more time, but I have decided not to. I just completed a very successful 10 day trip in which my brother and I surprising drew very little heat and the last thing I want to do is go into detail about how we played.
As a matter of fact I have probably gone into too much detail in the last week answering some of your questions. I trust that was sincere on your part, and hope you found some of my answers useful.
So Im at peace with peanuts. 😄
He knows the game. His approach is consistent . He lives in a place that offers several playing opportunities.
312 cards creates so mamy variables. The 2 in HILO speaks to the volatility. The workload wouldnt leave time to debate on a forum. Id be exhausted at the end of the day. That's alot of walking. I wouldnt give a crap about helping a newbie. I wouldnt tell friends or family of my income. Let alone strangers on a forum.
If he were playing two decks, using a count more weighted to the 5. Getting at least 60% pen and 2 hands on large bets at least 6% of the time. Low heat. Then the income is doable with patience, discipline, a reasonable spread allowance, and a strong work ethic.
If I bought his package? Id be heading that way.