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15 members have voted

Wizard
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Wizard
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December 5th, 2020 at 4:40:00 PM permalink
Quote: USpapergames

I like this strategy. Might just have to borrow it for my 1st published book, whenever I get to complete it ;) So I'm assuming the target IQ level is 110-120 since you say "aim at the person about one standard deviation" so I'm assuming "about" means that they are almost or slightly above the 2nd standard deviation.



I think one standard deviation on IQ tests is 15, so yes.

Quote:

I like your solution but I find it hard for me to implement it, any suggestions on how to help? I know communication isn't my strong point but dumbing down my communication to its simplest form just doesn't seem to work either :/



Your game is difficult to "dumb down," if I may say so. I suggest giving the math puzzle thread another go. Try to be more patient and ask questions that can be easily asked, but are difficult to solve. Then see where things lead.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
USpapergames
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December 5th, 2020 at 5:43:53 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Yes, I recall that, but not the details. Was it a player positional disadvantage as well?



No sir, it was over a year ago so it doesn't surprise me that the details are fuzzy. Here is a video of the game with your friend Vegas Aces as the host:

https://youtu.be/Yf5haJTf8rk
Math is the only true form of knowledge
DogHand
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December 6th, 2020 at 12:56:26 PM permalink
Quote: Mental

I am not clear about the point that you are making here.

Consider a heads up game with a five-card deck composed of four tens and a single ace. Dealer and player will always stand because they will always have a 20 or BJ in the first two cards. Whenever dealer or player gets a BJ, they will get it first. There is only one BJ possible on each hand.

One fifth of the time, they will push with each having 20. 40% of the time, dealer will have BJ and 40% of the time, the player will have BJ. The player will win a full unit every five hands, on average.

Now take out a ten, and the player wins a full bet every 4 hands, on average.



Mental,

I don't know about you, but if I'm dealt a 20 and the dealer does not have a BJ, I'm doubling down! ;-)

Dog Hand
racquet
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December 9th, 2020 at 1:34:42 PM permalink
Quote: TinMan

Before my last Vegas trip, I printed out in color BS charts for 1,2,4-8 decks from WOO BS generator. Had versions with surrender and no surr. H17 and S17 for all but the single deck game. Laminated them double sided so each card has the surr and no surr charts. Total of 10 charts. Really handy. Obviously none of this captures true count adjustments just BS. I’d been meaning to do it for awhile.



I'm going to date myself horribly here, but in the days after the advent of the personal computer but before the internet, there were a number of analog plastic cheat-sheet cards that were sold listing the various shortcuts for now-extinct products like WordPerfect, LOTUS 1-2-3, and the like. There were so many key combinations (ctrl-J, shift-F7, alt-enter) that a good tool was a plastic guide that could sit above the top row of keys on your keyboard that you could reference to help remember the shortcuts.

In Las Vegas at least, there are a variety of rules in effect from place to place, and often from one table to the next in a single casino. Most of the basic strategy rules are consistent, but quite a few can vary depending on even a single change in a rule, never mind if the whole game is different. There are no online, digital solutions available today. "Excuse me while I check my phone to decide whether or not to hit that 16 against your 10?"

I have a home-grown set of plastic cards that I use for practice. I try to visualize the card in my mind. Fortunately most plays are standard, never varying, but when a rule variation happens, making the proper play often has a greater than average impact on profitability.

When travelling, I admit to actually preferring the game I play most often locally (H17, surrender, no RSA) above a different game with better odds, since basic strategy for "my game" is something that I carry around in my head all the time. It saves me from wondering when one of those obscure variations happen if I played it properly.
odiousgambit
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December 10th, 2020 at 7:30:01 AM permalink
the question that is coming up for me now [maybe revealing I still don't understand prior replies] is this:

OK. The effects of removal explain a lot. Some cards removed helps the house, some helps the player. We can't know in advance which type will be removed first, so to say that generally less decks favor the player means it doesn't matter which kind get removed first, not on average anyway. This I can't quite get around, as it seems to suggest proportion changes occur with just having less decks, and that hasn't occurred, as we know.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
AylaDeuce
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March 5th, 2021 at 2:36:24 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

One question I get from time to time is why does the number of decks matter in blackjack if one is not counting cards?

This post shall address my initial analysis, which I open up for peer review.

First, let's establish some baseline rules:

  • Dealer hits soft 17
  • Blackjack pays 3 to 2
  • Dealer peeks for blackjack
  • Player may double after a split
  • Player may NOT surrender
  • Player may re-split up to four hands, including aces
  • Continuous shuffler used
  • Total-dependent basic strategy followed


My house edge calculator shows the house edge as follows:

  • One deck = 0.014%
  • Eight decks = 0.577%


This makes the effect of the difference in number of decks 0.563%.

Before I go on, all figures in this analysis are the result of billions of hands played by random simulation.

Let's work on this like an onion, starting with a simplistic balanced version of blackjack and then add the effects of the rules that are not equal both ways.

Imagine a blackjack game where the player follows a "mimic the dealer" strategy of hitting to 17 and also hitting a soft 17. Also let a winning blackjack pays 1-1. Finally, add a rule that if both the player and dealer bust, that the result is a push. This game is perfectly balanced for a zero house edge.

Next, let's remove the rule about a push if both player and dealer bust. Instead, we use the real blackjack rule that if both the player and dealer bust, then the dealer wins. Here is the player expected value adding that rule for one and eight decks:

  • One deck = -8.237%
  • Eight decks = -8.157%
  • Difference = -0.079%.


Why does the player lose more with a single deck? It's because there is more busting on both sides in a single-deck game, resulting in more double busts. The absolute value of the percentages above, to be exact. Why is there more busting with a single deck? I figure it's because both sides are hitting hands with more small cards than large, resulting in hitting into a deck/shoe that is high-card rich. This effect of removal is simply stronger with a single deck.


Next, let's consider the value of a blackjack paying 3-2. It is easy to calculate the effect of this mathematically, as follows:

Decks Prob player BJ Prob dealer BJ Prob winning BJ Value
1 4.827% 3.673% 4.649% 2.325%
8 4.745% 4.605% 4.527% 2.263%
Diff 0.081% -0.932% 0.123% 0.061%


Here is the effect of the two rule changes thus far. So, the eight-deck game is still a little better.

  • Player loses if both bust = -0.079%
  • Blackjack pays 3-2 = 0.061%
  • Total = -0.018%


Next, let's improve the player's strategy by using basic strategy with a hard total of 12 to 16, which is:

Player has 13 to 16 vs. dealer 2-6 = Stand
Player has 12 vs. dealer 4-6 = Stand
Otherwise, hit with hard 12 to 16.

Here is the effect of that strategy improvement.

  • One deck = 3.703%
  • Eight decks = 3.270%
  • Difference = 0.433%


So this change in strategy is more helpful with a single deck. I assume this is because hitting with 12 to 16 is more dangerous in a single-deck game, because the 12 to 16 are likely composed of more small cards than large, resulting in hitting into a deck/shoe rich in high cards, thus more busting. In other words, the effect of removal again.

Here is where we are at now of the reason a single-deck game is better for the player.


  • Player loses if both bust = -0.079%
  • Blackjack pays 3-2 = 0.061%
  • Strategic standing on 12 to 16 = 0.433%
  • Total = 0.415%


Next, let's add proper doubling strategy. We will use the appropriate basic strategy for the given number of decks. Here is the value of adding doubling the player's game.


  • One deck = 1.653%
  • Eight decks = 1.380%
  • Difference = 0.273%


Doubling is thus much more valuable in a single-deck game than a shoe. I figure it's because the player likely has two small cards when doubling, like a 6 and 5, resulting on doubling into a shoe/deck that is ten-card rich. Again, this effect of removal is stronger with one deck than eight.

Let's update our effect list:


  • Player loses if both bust = -0.079%
  • Blackjack pays 3-2 = 0.061%
  • Strategic standing on 12 to 16 = 0.433%
  • Strategic doubling = 0.273%
  • Total = 0.689%


The only thing left to change (remember, we are not allowing surrender) is the splitting rule. Here is the effect of adding the appropriate splitting strategy:


  • One deck = 0.544%
  • Eight decks = 0.669%
  • Difference = -0.125%


Interesting! Splitting is more effective in an 8-deck shoe. This should no be surprising as it is harder to form a pair in a single deck game than a shoe. Be be specific, the probabilitiy of getting any pair in two cards is 1/17 = 5.882%. In an eight deck shoe it is 7.470%. Not to get off topic, but it interesting how little splitting actually helps the player. So, there is more splitting and re-splitting going on in the shoe game.

Let's update our table again.

  • Player loses if both bust = -0.079%
  • Blackjack pays 3-2 = 0.061%
  • Strategic standing on 12 to 16 = 0.433%
  • Strategic doubling = 0.273%
  • Strategic splitting = -0.125%
  • Total = 0.563%


As a reminder, the difference from my blackjack house edge calculator matches the 0.563%. Yay!

I love graphs, so here is one of the various effects I looked at.

g]

Again, I plan to write this all up in a more formal way and will indclude more details. For now, I open it up to comments and questions. I've been working on this for about a week, so hope to get some feedback.

I would like to thank Don Schlesinger for his help and advice.



Hot damn! This was super helpful! ta!
Splitting cards is my guilty pleasure!
moses
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March 6th, 2021 at 11:39:57 AM permalink
The math? Single Deck straight up. You have 12. Only 16 out of 52 cards will break that hand.
You have 16. 32 out of 48 (excluding Ace) cards will break that hand before the dealer ever has to make a move.

Don S. Would you rather hit 16 and get an Ace for 17? Or start your next hand with an Ace?
kewlj
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March 6th, 2021 at 12:47:12 PM permalink
Quote: moses

The math? Single Deck straight up. You have 12. Only 16 out of 52 cards will break that hand.
You have 16. 32 out of 48 (excluding Ace) cards will break that hand before the dealer ever has to make a move.

Don S. Would you rather hit 16 and get an Ace for 17? Or start your next hand with an Ace?



Am I missing something? Are you hole-carding? How do you know the next card is an ace?

If you aren't hole-carding and don't know, the same question could be asked of a 4 or 5. Would you rather hit your 16 with a 4 or 5 or stand and start your next round with a 4 or 5? Not so appealing now. Lol.
lilredrooster
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March 6th, 2021 at 1:15:26 PM permalink
..............................

Moses:

in another thread you mentioned you play in Reno

I googled and it said there are 20 casinos in Reno

how many of them have good BJ games?

and how long of a walk is it between the 2 casinos that are farthest away from each other?


thanks


*
Please don't feed the trolls
moses
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March 6th, 2021 at 1:37:22 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Am I missing something? Are you hole-carding? How do you know the next card is an ace?

If you aren't hole-carding and don't know, the same question could be asked of a 4 or 5. Would you rather hit your 16 with a 4 or 5 or stand and start your next round with a 4 or 5? Not so appealing now. Lol.



KJ. Read the post as a whole. The 4 and 5 are two of the only 16 cards that will improve the 16. 32 will break your hand before the dealer makes a move. Thus hitting means you will break twice as often as opposed to standing. The Ace will get you to 17. But if the dealer has 17 thru 20, that same Ace would be the first card of your next hand. So would you rather have 17? Or an Ace to start your next hand?

The same could be said with KJ scenario. There are 16 2 thru 5. The 4 and 5 will likely put you in the winners circle. But that is ONLY 8 out of 52 cards. Not so appealing now is it? lol
There are also 16 cards with a value of 10. So the 10 that breaks your hand is often the first card of your next hand.
Last edited by: moses on Mar 6, 2021
moses
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March 6th, 2021 at 1:39:55 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

..............................

Moses:

in another thread you mentioned you play in Reno

I googled and it said there are 20 casinos in Reno

how many of them have good BJ games?

and how long of a walk is it between the 2 casinos that are farthest away from each other?


thanks


*

Reno has changed considerably. Id suggest renting a car. I think there are only 10 that still offer blackjack as table games.
Last edited by: moses on Mar 6, 2021
DRich
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March 6th, 2021 at 2:01:20 PM permalink
Quote: moses

Reno has changed considerably. Id suggest renting a car.



Yes, Reno games are spread out over many miles. You will definitely need a car.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
kewlj
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March 6th, 2021 at 7:49:47 PM permalink
Quote: moses

KJ. Read the post as a whole. The 4 and 5 are two of the only 16 cards that will improve the 16. 32 will break your hand before the dealer makes a move. Thus hitting means you will break twice as often as opposed to standing. The Ace will get you to 17. But if the dealer has 17 thru 20, that same Ace would be the first card of your next hand. So would you rather have 17? Or an Ace to start your next hand?

The same could be said with KJ scenario. There are 16 2 thru 5. The 4 and 5 will likely put you in the winners circle. But that is ONLY 8 out of 52 cards. Not so appealing now is it? lol
There are also 16 cards with a value of 10. So the 10 that breaks your hand is often the first card of your next hand.



I don't get what you are saying moses. Of course if the player has a 16 vs the dealer 7-10, that is a bad hand. I don't know what the negative expectation is without looking it up, but it is fairly significant. It is a bad hand with negative expectation, either way you play it. You are more likely to lose whether you hit or stand. But of the two options it is already determined which will have the slightly better outcome and that is hitting. That is basic strategy, assuming you have no other knowledge about remaining cards. It seems like you are trying to re-write basic strategy or something.

Now, what I said above is assuming you have no knowledge of remaining cards, If you do, via counting, or possibly some sort of key card tracking, that basic strategy decision could change.

Now all that said, I am going to completely contradict everything I just said and tell you that I play (card) Counter's Basic Strategy (CBS). And CBS says to always stand, well at least on 16 vs 10. not necessarily 16 vs 7,8,9. For anyone not familiar with CBS, it simply says for hands that are reasonably close either way, hit or stand, you ALWAYS do what would be the correct play at a higher plus count of say, TC +3. That way you have eliminated the "tell" of playing some of these close hand one way at certain counts and another way at other counts and you are always playing correct when your larger bets are out, making the cost very minimal.
kewlj
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March 6th, 2021 at 8:04:29 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I disagree.

The way this issue is often expressed is in the following question:

If a casino offered a game with exactly 0% house edge, who would come out ahead in the long run?

A. The casino
B. The players
C. Neither. The net casino profit (on a percentage basis) will always hover close to zero.

The answer is C.

Since this is getting a bit off topic, I'll split this off there seems to be further discussion about it.



Well going back a few pages here, I am going to disagree with this Wizard. Mathematically the answer is C. But in more practical term of playing let's talk RoR. Flat betting, not counting or anything. There is STILL a RoR for player based on what he has brought to the table. There is no real RoR for the house. They have unlimited funds. So there are always going to be some players that tap out of what funds they brought.

So the player with limited funds, upon hitting some negative variance will tap out, not having the opportunity for the positive variance that would likely come at some point to get back to even or close to even on a no house edge game.

Disagree?
kewlj
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March 6th, 2021 at 8:13:37 PM permalink
Veering slightly off topic, but still somewhat related, I would love to get into the difference between a 6 deck game and an 8 deck game.

The house edge only changes slightly, but for a card counter going from a 6 deck game to an 8 deck game, the game changes dramatically. Your win rate for 8 deck games can be 50% less than a similar 6 deck game. It has to do with the greatly reduces true count frequencies, which will mean a card counter is seeing fewer +EV opportunities, in particular the really good (max Bet) opportunities.

So a card counter going from normally playing 6 deck to 8 deck games will be very unpleasantly surprised. Fortunately for me, it worked the opposite way. I started out playing 8 deck games in Atlantic City and when I moved to Las Vegas and started playing mostly 6 deck games, I was surprised at how much different (better) the game was. I had to run simulations to figure out that it was all about the significantly better true count frequencies that I was used to. A very pleasant surprise indeed for me.
moses
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March 6th, 2021 at 8:37:28 PM permalink
Interesting KJ. Im looking at 16 vs 10 as two hand stratetgy. Hence, try to break even on the two hands. Sort of like splitting, so to speak. At least from the dollar invested standpoint.

The tricky part is when the deck is negative because the likelihood of a small card being under the dealers 10.

Yoy mentioned you also prefer straight up play. Why? Not being a smart alec.
kewlj
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March 7th, 2021 at 8:43:07 AM permalink
Quote: moses



Yoy mentioned you also prefer straight up play. Why? Not being a smart alec.



Of course the answer is game speed. My EV per round played is roughly $1.50. A little more for double deck and a little less for 6 deck. I try to get in 200+ rounds per day. So if I am playing a 6 deck game, with hand shuffle and 3-4 other players who are playing side bets, which most tables have now, you are talking 50 rounds per hour. If I can play that same table heads up, and I am not playing side bet, I can easily get 200 rounds in one hour. So who wouldn't want that?

More than just the convenience of more rounds per hour is less exposure time. Once I throw out my first larger bet until the time I exit, I view as the danger time. That is the point that someone (surveillance or pit) might notice, "hey this guy has suddenly increased his bet".

So the faster I get thru that exposure time and exit the better, the less chance of drawing heat and attention and/or maybe I am gone before they do anything about it if someone does notice. There is nothing worse than being at a slow moving table, with people playing side bets and I am sitting there exposed, with my max bet sitting there for all to see, while 3 yahoos at the table are playing side bets, sometime more than 1 side bet every round.

One other advantage. On a shoe game, the count moves slower and often not very much. You might sit through several shoes with the count not moving much, meaning you are playing minimum or close to minimum wager. But often when the count goes positive early it stays there for most of the shoe. So there is nothing better than playing heads up, have the count go strong positive early and get in 30-40 rounds at max bet in that one shoe. That is a days worth of Max Bets in a few minutes. :)
moses
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March 7th, 2021 at 9:02:28 AM permalink
Very informative answer. 🖒

Speed isnt going to be a factor in single deck. In best case scenario the dealer is shuffing every 6 or 7 hands.

Back to the oringinal question. Suppose you knew your next card was going to be a Ace. You are playing straight up. You have 16 and are facing dealers 7,8,9,10,A. Lets say your count is close to even. Are you going to hit knowing there is a good chance this will be the first card of your next hand?
kewlj
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March 7th, 2021 at 9:10:35 AM permalink
Quote: moses



Back to the oringinal question. Suppose you knew your next card was going to be a Ace. You are playing straight up. You have 16 and are facing dealers 7,8,9,10,A. Lets say your count is close to even. Are you going to hit knowing there is a good chance this will be the first card of your next hand?



Yes, if you KNOW the next card is an ace, I would save it for my first care of next round (51% advantage IIRC), rather tan take it on my 16 which improves the hand slightly, but still is a losing expectation hand.

I am just still wondering how you know this information? holecarding? saw the dealers next card?
moses
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March 7th, 2021 at 9:29:22 AM permalink
I dont "know" the information. It dates back to a thread Don S started years ago at BJTF. Im playing the percentages. Thanks for your answer.

Now if it were a 10? That would be a no brainer.

Don S could dig deeper. He still has not reached his maximun potential IMO. As brilliant as he is, he still has alot "in" him.
moses
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March 8th, 2021 at 12:09:12 PM permalink
Not that KJ ask, but my primary purpose for straight up play is the option having the next card drawn could the last of your current hand. But is could also frequently be the first card of your next hand.

It has nothing to do hole carding etc. etc. But rather the same purpose a counter decides to hit or stand.
True count comes downs to percentages. However, there are different ways of arriving at the solution.

My problem is the rest of the blackjack world plays more than one deck and/or more than one person at the table. Thus Sims, books, and charts are all designed with the same universal process. CV Data is a great product but will not work for this because, according to view logs, the dealer finishes the hand even when the straight up players busts first.

Thus a ton of extra work on my part. I've talked with college math professors and/or others who might be able to sim it or come up with a formula. I'm convinced Don S is the perhaps only person on earth to come up with a formula for this application. My belief is the answer comes from the tags assigned to create a strong deck composition, playing efficiency, and SCORE. Until Don S decides to dig deeper, arriving at the best solution can only come with hard work and short term results.

The difference KJ, as Norm said in his book, is that Norm does not give consideration to money management. My entire game evolves around money management. Sims are designed based on thresholds to win each hand. My game is based on advantages to win the deck.
kewlj
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March 8th, 2021 at 12:27:25 PM permalink
Quote: moses

Not that KJ ask, but my primary purpose for straight up play is the option having the next card drawn could the last of your current hand. But is could also frequently be the first card of your next hand.

It has nothing to do hole carding etc. etc. But rather the same purpose a counter decides to hit or stand.
True count comes downs to percentages. However, there are different ways of arriving at the solution.



I am sorry moses, but your strategy makes no sense to me. If you don't KNOW what that next card is, either through hole-carding or possibly some sort of key card tracking, or to a lesser extent the remaining make up a deck through card counting, you are essentially guessing at the next card and quite possibly sacrificing the current hand and an opportunity to improve a current losing (-EV) hand, in the "hopes" that the next hand is better.

Now if you know for sure that the next card out is an ACE, then yes, that is more valuable as the first card of the next hand, than slightly improving your current losing -EV hand, to a slightly less negative (double negative there, which is a writing no no) hand.
moses
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March 8th, 2021 at 1:19:29 PM permalink
KJ. Think of it this way. What constitutes the difference between a min. vs a max bet? The cards that remain in the deck. No? Many different strategies from simple to highly complex make that determination.

CV Data generates indexes which are revered as the gospel. They are merely thresholds.

Funny, when Don S started the thread at BJTF. Most of the respones were, How do you know?

The answer is, you dont know. You are playing the percentages.

Im going to lose you here. But bare with me. Your method of always standing on 16vs10 is very well thought out.🖒

It's pretty much a losing hand until at least 60% small cards remain vs and 40% or less large cards remain.
This is the advantage strike point. But it doesnt matter for you because by the time a shoe gets to that negative point? You've already made like Elvis and "left the building."

But in single deck, I can turn many losing hands into winning hands. Hence, a well educated guess that comes from tons of research and good old fashioned hard work.
unJon
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March 8th, 2021 at 3:54:26 PM permalink
I think I get what Moses is saying. Let’s take an extreme example. The casino deals out the entire deck 100%, so long as at least four cards left l in a heads up game. You are near the at the end of the deck and have 16 vs dealer 10.

You know that the unknown remaining cards (of which there are 5):

1 ace
2 fives
2 tens

Should you hit? Note that if you hit you will not get a next hand. If you stand, you might get a next hand.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
moses
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March 8th, 2021 at 4:15:06 PM permalink
Lets use the first hand of the deck as an example. You have 9.7. Dealer has 10 up. If you hit? There are still 4 Aces that will get you to 17. There are 16 cards that will land you between 18 and 21. There are 29 cards that will break you AND the dealer doesnt have to do a thing.

Of those 29 cards. 15 have a value of 10. 4 Aces still remain. If an Ace was in the hole the dealer would have flipped over a blackjack and we wave good-bye to that chip in the circle.

What is the good buy? Stand. There are still 20 cards in the hole that will make the dealer hit. There are only 25 now that forces a stand.

Now you have 19 prime cards 10,A that could start your next hand 15 of which would've broke your hand or 4 would get you to 17. From a money management standpoint? Im standing.

If I hit and take out a large card and dealer has a 10 in the hole? Chances are good I will never get out of negative territory for that deck which gets shuffled again in just 5 hands.
kewlj
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March 8th, 2021 at 4:32:57 PM permalink
Quote: moses

Lets use the first hand of the deck as an example. You have 9.7. Dealer has 10 up. If you hit? There are still 4 Aces that will get you to 17. There are 16 cards that will land you between 18 and 21. There are 29 cards that will break you AND the dealer doesnt have to do a thing.

Of those 29 cards. 15 have a value of 10. 4 Aces still remain. If an Ace was in the hole the dealer would have flipped over a blackjack and we wave good-bye to that chip in the circle.

What is the good buy? Stand. There are still 20 cards in the hole that will make the dealer hit. There are only 25 now that forces a stand.

Now you have 19 prime cards 10,A that could start your next hand 15 of which would've broke your hand or 4 would get you to 17. From a money management standpoint? Im standing.



Thank you for setting up this scenario. Now we are getting somewhere. And unfortunately, you aren't going to like what I am about to post.

See where you said "There are still 20 cards in the hole that will make the dealer hit"? just because there is a small card in the hole to go with the dealer 10, meaning he has to hit again, doesn't make it a winning hand for the player. That second hit on that now "stiff" is going to result in the dealer making his hand, I don't know 40% of the time. 40% of those 20 chances is 8 times the dealer will draw a small card, hit again and draw a second small card making his hand. Add that 8 to the 25 that he makes his hand with the first card drawn and now if you stand you lose 33 out of 45 chances, or nearly 75%.

THAT is why the correct play is to hit in a neutral count situation and with 9,7 vs dealer 10, it isn't even a neutral count situation, it is a negative count situation (-1), so even more so.

Bottom line is you are sort of trying to rework basic strategy, which is like trying to re-invent the wheel.
moses
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kewlj
March 8th, 2021 at 5:02:06 PM permalink
67% of the time you will hit and lose and the dealer does nothing.

There are 29 cards that allow the dealer to stand.
Perhaps reinventing the wheel is a fair anology in a multi deck game.

But in a single deck straight up there is no time to recover. Looking at as two hands instead of one is money management. Something sims cant do.

But thanks for your response. However Im confused. You always stand?
kewlj
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March 8th, 2021 at 5:34:03 PM permalink
Quote: moses

67% of the time you will hit and lose and the dealer does nothing.



This is not correct. If only the three cards you mentioned, player 9,7 and dealer 10 have been played there are 20 cards (ace trough 5's) that will improve the players hand and only 29 cards tat will bust him. That is a 59% automatic loss by busting, not 67%.

But unfortunately that doesn't mean you will win the other 41%. You won't. Some of those times you will improve your hand, say with a 2 or 3 but still lose.

The bottom line is it is a losing hand either way. A close call, but slightly better for neutral deck to hit and even better at -1, which the count is wit those three cards having been played (removed).

I am telling you that you are trying to hard to re-invent the wheel. This stuff has been done for us already by people like Don S, Wizard, and others and later re-affirmed by simulations. Keep it simple moses! Lol.
moses
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March 8th, 2021 at 10:38:02 PM permalink
Actually 67% you will lose or take an Ace out of the deck. 33/49.

CV Data sims indicate the dealers hit even after the player busts. Check your tires. It may not be the wheel.😉
DogHand
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March 12th, 2021 at 9:13:26 AM permalink
moses,

The output below shows the number of hands on which the dealer achieved the indicated Final Total (left column) as a function of the dealer's upcard (top row) from a recent 400-million-round CVData sim I ran.

As you can clearly see, the dealer frequently (almost 48 million times out of a total of nearly 420 million hands) ended with a total less than 16, which means the dealer did NOT complete her hand.

This shows that your statement that "CV Data sims indicate the dealers hit even after the player busts." is not always true. Perhaps the sims to which you refer were run using the "Dealer must complete hand" option checked... can you check and let us know?

Dog Hand

Dealer UpcardDealer UpcardDealer UpcardDealer UpcardDealer UpcardDealer UpcardDealer UpcardDealer UpcardDealer UpcardDealer UpcardDealer Upcard
Ace
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Ten
Totals
1
2
3
4
174,577
174,577
5
188,036
185,092
373,128
6
187,598
175,262
115,849
478,709
7
186,642
185,798
115,416
115,630
603,486
8
188,341
185,876
108,173
114,293
115,469
712,152
9
187,524
187,099
114,838
115,459
115,343
726,729
1,446,992
10
186,765
185,955
115,566
108,034
115,861
729,099
743,049
2,184,329
11
187,311
185,956
115,018
115,549
115,577
729,064
740,359
818,232
3,007,066
12
980,829
736,004
186,136
115,800
114,968
108,092
725,419
742,534
818,775
3,574,139
8,102,696
13
1,052,764
180,334
733,350
115,276
115,387
115,249
724,125
743,348
817,661
3,578,642
8,176,136
14
1,052,687
179,542
452,564
115,194
115,485
682,117
739,398
818,960
3,572,869
7,728,816
15
1,051,067
108,084
452,622
115,100
727,330
742,679
813,345
3,560,239
7,570,466
16
1,045,692
107,848
454,214
723,427
695,352
816,783
3,556,652
7,399,968
17
2,030,624
3,701,684
3,579,944
3,598,670
3,461,438
3,489,943
10,789,501
3,475,272
3,247,867
12,180,685
49,555,628
18
3,505,290
3,863,448
3,756,903
3,655,868
3,616,095
3,357,949
3,678,935
10,579,748
3,105,407
12,148,315
51,267,958
19
3,506,088
3,752,202
3,601,358
3,596,675
3,471,819
3,378,567
1,676,690
3,471,955
10,359,819
12,180,986
48,996,159
20
3,511,527
3,574,889
3,486,692
3,457,831
3,278,353
3,227,784
1,684,194
1,467,695
3,252,499
39,971,512
66,912,976
21
10,629,984
3,419,485
3,311,927
3,329,600
3,180,535
3,105,286
1,576,653
1,473,963
1,233,590
12,181,451
43,442,474
22
640,391
4,322,018
2,784,767
2,809,810
2,760,363
2,591,562
1,380,029
1,266,716
1,145,001
4,018,310
23,718,967
23
561,268
1,801,666
4,045,203
2,604,428
2,540,648
2,508,659
1,248,792
1,164,676
1,034,687
3,691,756
21,201,783
24
482,961
1,558,791
1,530,807
3,905,720
2,338,394
2,288,156
1,115,292
1,033,211
934,853
3,296,325
18,484,510
25
398,168
1,353,090
1,298,940
1,307,775
3,641,457
2,087,168
994,054
924,098
817,671
2,894,484
15,716,905
26
314,298
1,107,421
1,059,801
1,072,691
1,043,116
3,386,006
854,092
757,947
704,741
2,444,007
12,744,120
BJs
9,498,553
9,492,689
18,991,242
Bust
2,397,086
10,142,986
10,719,518
11,700,424
12,323,978
12,861,551
5,592,259
5,146,648
4,636,953
16,344,882
91,866,285
moses
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March 12th, 2021 at 12:15:47 PM permalink
Im not seeing where that option is available. 🤔 I looked at Setup. Rules. Playing. Betting. TC Calculations. Nuances.
moses
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March 12th, 2021 at 1:08:04 PM permalink
Im not seeing where that option is available. 🤔 I looked at Setup. Rules. Playing. Betting. TC Calculations. Nuances.
DogHand
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March 13th, 2021 at 12:56:13 PM permalink
moses,

Below is the Dealer Final Total output for another 400-million-round CVData sim, this time using the "Dealer must complete hand" option. As you can see, the dealer NEVER finished with a total of 16 or less.

To use this option, you must be running at least V5.0.146, where Norm finally bowed to public opinion and introduced it. If you're using an earlier version get the latest update, install it, then reboot your computer.

Here is the link to the Update page at QFIT: https://qfit.com/downloads.htm#free

To see the option, you must be running a "Multitracking" sim. The option then appears on the Setup page, right below the Burn cards spinner.

By the way, to see the Dealer Final Total output, be sure to check "Massive data" on the "Nuances" tab before you run the sim, then after the sim runs go to Misc/Dealer totals.

Dog Hand

Dealer UpcardDealer UpcardDealer UpcardDealer UpcardDealer UpcardDealer UpcardDealer UpcardDealer UpcardDealer UpcardDealer UpcardDealer Upcard
Ace
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Ten
Totals
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
4,004,310
4,306,116
4,140,240
4,022,364
3,758,978
5,101,339
11,355,892
3,971,025
3,701,310
13,766,789
58,128,363
18
4,029,480
4,145,405
4,027,438
3,822,733
3,769,559
3,271,144
4,247,974
11,066,099
3,611,617
13,736,643
55,728,092
19
4,020,996
4,008,396
3,855,966
3,735,120
3,620,487
3,271,656
2,413,671
3,967,858
10,815,364
13,772,531
53,482,045
20
4,028,613
3,823,442
3,723,170
3,586,381
3,441,634
3,124,656
2,421,832
2,130,860
3,703,485
41,781,088
71,765,161
21
11,140,860
3,652,708
3,538,661
3,443,331
3,323,562
2,992,172
2,272,796
2,139,318
1,873,620
13,771,398
48,148,426
22
965,883
4,657,735
2,988,317
2,921,586
2,875,182
2,619,510
1,987,987
1,846,215
1,738,540
6,434,277
29,035,232
23
841,938
1,928,667
4,367,089
2,709,975
2,656,863
2,514,124
1,803,327
1,692,619
1,576,583
5,895,171
25,986,356
24
712,289
1,674,479
1,635,233
4,083,370
2,439,308
2,294,298
1,613,140
1,504,780
1,423,297
5,275,004
22,655,198
25
581,592
1,447,238
1,392,497
1,353,702
3,812,427
2,090,260
1,432,984
1,338,017
1,243,094
4,624,331
19,316,142
26
451,273
1,182,319
1,139,037
1,109,979
1,083,400
3,478,571
1,221,125
1,111,416
1,067,831
3,910,036
15,754,987
BJs
9,492,426
9,487,017
18,979,443
Bust
3,552,975
10,890,438
11,522,173
12,178,612
12,867,180
12,996,763
8,058,563
7,493,047
7,049,345
26,138,819
112,747,915
moses
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March 13th, 2021 at 1:22:24 PM permalink
Thanks for your help.

It seems there are 3 different philosophies regarding 16.

1.) Always Hit

2.) Always Stand

3.) play it stictly by the index.

Having an idea of which one the serious players employ would help me in my studies.

Maybe do a poll?

I look for advantages. For instance, there is no clear cut advantage on 14. The thresholds are so tight and rare that one may as well stick with basic strategy on this line.
ksdjdj
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moses
March 14th, 2021 at 4:47:36 PM permalink
Quote: moses

(snip)
It seems there are 3 different philosophies regarding 16.

1.) Always Hit

2.) Always Stand

3.) play it stictly by the index.
(snip)


This is what I would do for 16 vs 10:

. When playing as a card-counter, I would always stand.

. When playing out of a CSM, hit two-card 16, and stand on three (or more) card 16 and/or if you are playing in the last spot and there is a "high amount" of 4's and (more importantly) 5's on the table for that round.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Mar 14, 2021
moses
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March 15th, 2021 at 2:43:56 PM permalink
Thanks again for the info. DogHand. Norm walked me through the steps that updated CV Data and fixed the problem. He also set it up so TC is done in 1/2 point calculations. Very cool.🖒

Also, the new version runs faster by far. Great job Norm.
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