blackjack struggle 2020

For those that don't like my blackjack updates....don't read.

2020 is my 17th year of supporting myself solely from blackjack play. My blackjack results like so many other things this year is just a complete mess. Today nearly 9 months through the year (although casinos were closed for 3 months), I have now dipped into the red for the year. :(

I have never had a losing year. I have heard other players that have. I thought such a thing was like bigfoot. Lol. Maybe not. I am not there yet, but whatever happens, it looks like this will probably be a bad year. Prior to this year, my worse year since I moved to Vegas and began playing roughly the same stakes has been $27k profit vs expectation of 85k for my play. That is about 60k under expectation. And this year I am currently at 56k expectation and just over 2 grand in the hole, so also roughly 60 grand below expectation for the year.

Now I should mention that I have been playing higher stakes since casinos re-opened than I have played before. Playing higher stakes was going to allow me to build more E.V. to make up for lost (literally) time. Of course the risk is bigger swings (variance) and that is what has bitten me. I just have not won much while playing higher stakes.

In addition to just being on the wrong side of variance just when I started betting more, I just have not handled the larger swings that are normal for my blackjack play very well. Swings of $12,000, $15,000 even a couple $20,000 days are just way more than I am used to and frankly outside of my comfort zone. I have recently gone back to my regular mid-level stakes and just going to see what happened the remaining quarter of the year. There is a very good chance this Covid 2020 is just going to be a bad year all around in so many aspects, including my blackjack results.

If I ever get off the low-roller tables, I'd probably buy-in for $1,000 sessions in hopes of turning it into $9800 cash-outs for the day.

It be what it be.

you've had periods where your results were above EV and now you are going through the opposite.
Are you including the unemployment income you received? I'd think you should.

Quote: billryan

Are you including the unemployment income you received? I'd think you should.

No, I was only including my blackjack results. I did receive 10 weeks of unemployment compensation, a very unusual thing for a professional player, in these very unusual times. I also have some machine play income, having hit several royals in the limited machine play that I have done, so running ahead of expectation in that regard. Just blackjack has been a wasted year so far.

it's a type of game in which your skills are matters as well as your luck.

That's really too bad. How many hours have you out in to be that far below expectation?

Quote: kewlj

No, I was only including my blackjack results. I did receive 10 weeks of unemployment compensation, a very unusual thing for a professional player, in these very unusual times. I also have some machine play income, having hit several royals in the limited machine play that I have done, so running ahead of expectation in that regard. Just blackjack has been a wasted year so far.

Chin up, KewlJ, you’re the one who (correctly) says it’s the accumulated EV that matters. By that standard, no such thing as a, “Wasted year.”

Watching a couple Blackjack videos with a $200 buy-in with $10 bets and a $5 raise on each consecutive win: oh, I mean 100X all that. And I've never seen such bad luck at the tables, OMG!

🃏 1st TIME EVER BLACKJACK at Caesars! 🃏 Up to $4,000 Per Hand - INSANITY - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIiv2bK22Ms
Up to $5,000/HAND BIRTHDAY BLACKJACK LIVE @ Atlantis Reno 🃏 Don’t Miss This! - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSVvRtQyKck

Slotlady says she just had the worst luck at the BJ tables that she's ever seen in her life.
Live Blackjack!! $1000 Starting Bankroll! Sept 18 2019 - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtD-REsKcYc

Quote: Mission146

Chin up, KewlJ, you’re the one who (correctly) says it’s the accumulated EV that matters. By that standard, no such thing as a, “Wasted year.”

Thanks Mission. I am not "down" or anything over these results. I have been at this long enough and had enough good years to know how this rolls (like a rollercoaster) lol. It is just sort of like what Minty said. I feel like I wasted a year or part of a year at this point. Oh well.

So, "accumulated EV". When I have used that term on another forum, I receive a lot of ridicule. People calling it "Phantom bucks" and making comments about how you can't buy groceries with EV. :/ Of course these are people who believe in all sorts of 'voodoo' gambling concepts' and don't seem to have a clue about EV. Good to be on a forum where people understand EV.

KewlJ, do you ever ‘cycle’ your bet spread/risk/EV based on whether you are up for the year? It sounds like you did a little this year...bigger bet spread until going into the hole and then revert back to your comfortable/lower risk bet spread. This might help with longevity too. Your normal places didn’t up the heat or take more notice of you with the bigger bets?

2020 was a wasted year for many of us. My revenues may end up down 90% from last year, but I'm better off than some 250,000 of my Countrymen. F.I.D.O.

Quote: billryan

2020 was a wasted year for many of us. My revenues may end up down 90% from last year, but I'm better off than some 250,000 of my Countrymen. F.I.D.O.

I think you left off 3 zeroes
the population of the U.S. is about 328,000,000


if you were only better off than some 250,000 of your Countrymen you would be living in poverty.............(-:\



*

Seriously?

Quote: camz1969

KewlJ, do you ever ‘cycle’ your bet spread/risk/EV based on whether you are up for the year?

No I don't. My spread and max bet is more a function of what I have decided is better tolerated for the places I play. That means the same game at a strip property on a sat night will be very different than a local property on a weekday afternoon.

The upping my stakes this year had more to do with quickly wanting to accumulate more EV. I thought pit folks would be distracted by circumstances and have new responsibilities that would allow me to play higher stakes with no increased heat and that happened for a while. But things eventually settle down somewhat closer to "normal".

I have no regrets for taking advantage of the circumstances even though it didn't quite work out because I was on the down side of variance.

Now just back to my normal limits which I believe allow for longevity, which is my top priority.

Kewlj I have little knowledge of statistics. But how far off are you from a normal amount of variance? (If there is such a thing as a normal amount of variance.)

Quote: AlanMendelson

Kewlj I have little knowledge of statistics. But how far off are you from a normal amount of variance? (If there is such a thing as a normal amount of variance.)

There is Alan. It is called standard deviations. It goes something like this. A player should be within 1 standard deviation, I forget the number, like 70% of the time, be within 2 standard deviations like 95% of the time and within 3 standard deviations, 99%. (I forget the first number....that 70% is just a guess).

This works great for a player who plays one similar game all the time, using the same or similar bet spread and max bet. But when you start mixing and matching those things as I do, those standard deviations get all screwed up. So I don't even bother to look and see how far off I am at any given time. I suspect my current results are pretty far off. Probably close to that 3 standard deviations, but that is just a guess.

Quote: kewlj

No I don't. My spread and max bet is more a function of what I have decided is better tolerated for the places I play. That means the same game at a strip property on a sat night will be very different than a local property on a weekday afternoon.

The upping my stakes this year had more to do with quickly wanting to accumulate more EV. I thought pit folks would be distracted by circumstances and have new responsibilities that would allow me to play higher stakes with no increased heat and that happened for a while. But things eventually settle down somewhat closer to "normal".

I have no regrets for taking advantage of the circumstances even though it didn't quite work out because I was on the down side of variance.

Now just back to my normal limits which I believe allow for longevity, which is my top priority.

Thanks for sharing your experiences with us Kewlj, I'm sorry that this was a bad year for you. I strongly believe that accumulated EV is a very important thing to remember, as hard as I can imagine it must be right now I am sure with your experience level and determination you will bounce back strong! The next few years could be extremely lucrative for you, all can do is trust your playing and simulation, know your game, play it right, and it will all work out in the end eventually. Please keep us updated!

Makes me wonder if the casinos have an arsenal to control the odds. That they have never deployed til probably now.

To my surprise, I got a $1200 stimilus check a couple weeks ago.

Quote: theOmega623

Thanks for sharing your experiences with us Kewlj, I'm sorry that this was a bad year for you. I strongly believe that accumulated EV is a very important thing to remember,

I think I will take this opportunity to update this most frustrating of years. I have moved into the black (for the moment} for the year, but am basically just straddling near the in the black / in the red line. And while slightly in the black at the moment, I am some 70k below expectation or what I have come to call "accumulated EV".

It just seems every time I have a couple winning sessions and think maybe it is the start of something, I almost immediately fall back in the next day or so. It is a real stuck in the mud, spinning your wheels kind of feeling. :(

This year has almost nothing to do with Covid-19 or any change in conditions due to covid-19. I say "almost" because I did up my stakes after the casino shutdown for a few months, to quickly recover some EV, and it just so happens variance was not kind to me, while I was playing those higher stakes. So that has contributed, but is not the cause of this far below EV year I am in.

I have had this kind of year before, without checking records, I am going to say 2013 where I ended with 27k blackjack win vs expectation (or accumulated EV) of 87k. Some 60 grand below expectation. Odd thing was the following year was the best year of my career about 50 grand above expectation. I believe this is part of the game and things work out in the long run. I trust the long run. BUT, it doesn't make it any less frustrating going through it. But this too shall pass.

Reading the bottom line in this demo BJ game I'm playing this week. (5's turn into 6's automagically)
2590 bets: 45.02% won, 46.72% lost, 8.26% tied; $496,675 bet, $13,653 won, 2.75% win rate.

Quote: ChumpChange

If I ever get off the low-roller tables, I'd probably buy-in for $1,000 sessions in hopes of turning it into $9800 cash-outs for the day.

Yeah, I did that very early-on in the demo game in a 130 hands session. Now I have to consider that $10K as 10 x $1K sessions, or 250 hands left to play. I'll be playing on the $25-$500 tables.

I had an extra $5K win and tried to use that to win $50K+ on a $100-$3K table but it didn't pan out.

It'd probably be safer for me to play craps or baccarat instead of blackjack because casinos are so fussy with backoffs in blackjack. I could come into a NJ casino for one night and be banned for life just because I won at blackjack. There ought to be a law against that. If I can turn $20K into $200K in 2 hours on a $500-$10K table, that's what I'd be there for.

Split Double Destroy – My Most Aggressive Backoff
https://www.blackjackapprenticeship.com/most-aggressive-backoff/

The Truth about Backoffs as a Card Counter
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjUX_r_fOgI

Handling Heat as a Card Counter
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qhvi6slNdc

An Inside Look At Casinos During COVID19: What Card Counters Should Know - May 28, 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1aWOcjS_Qo

The Downsides to Card Counting: David and Dusty Part 6 - Oct 16, 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=le4glJmpgdU

Casino Backoff for Card Counting - Blackjack Apprenticeship - Mar 27, 2013
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HjwzJyCQlQ

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