Blackjack 2021

Greetings everyone!

So as I've mentioned before, I've been reevaluating my AP plans for next year and I figured I would share my plans with you guys. Assuming this virus is not still a big problem and Las Vegas is somewhat back to normal, it seems to me what makes the most sense is to focus solely on 2D games. On average, it costs me around $750 - $1k to make the trip to Vegas and other places that offer good 2D games (this includes travel, room, food, everything etc.). I can find descent 6D games closer to me but after running the numbers it just makes logical sense not to waste time on them. By only playing 2D games with at least 60-65% pen using AO2 full indices, I can keep my hourly win rate at around $100/hr (around $12 per shoe in the long run). This will pretty much be picking up where I left off, with the goal being 500 shoes per month, at least 2-3 trips per month. I calculate that as long as I keep my expenses per trip at $1k or less, which should be easy, I expect my EV for the year to be around $50k (after subtracting expenses). This is staying at a $25 unit, as much as I would really like to use a $50 or $100 unit and go for $100 - $200k EV, I just dont see it financially possible. I've considered taking a loan if needed or playing with higher risk, its incredibly tempting but overall not a very smart idea. Anyways, just figured I would run my thoughts by you guys as I'm sitting near the coast waiting on Hurricane Isaias!

Hope all is well guys!

- Omega

ASSUMING the virus is still not a big problem? You do know about "assume" right? lol

Las Vegas somewhat back to normal? I am less sure about that. I think blackjack has begun and will continue to change. Things like more electronic games and stadium type TITO games. I think some of these changes were on the horizon anyway but covid-19 will speed up those changes.

I am trying to get away from offering unsolicited advice but since you asked, I have some thoughts.

Can I ask how much experience you have playing blackjack at the limits you are talking about? I ask because you obsession with double deck games, kind of hints you haven't played a good many hours at these limits. Double deck games are sweaty! I mean yeah, you run the numbers on sims, and double deck is far superior to shoe games. But that higher win rate means little, if you can't actually play or play for long.

I mean I live in Vegas and play a home rotation of 30 some casinos (pre-covid) and I only play 4 double deck games despite that there are many more that simulations say are good games. The term some of us that play Vegas like to use is "counter trap". Many DD games, especially at chain casinos are just hawked to closely and intolerant of even smaller spreads. You might get some play in, but only at short bursts and you are better off playing independent casinos, not associated with others, so if you do lose that game for a period of time, it is only at one location rather than a whole chain.

I actually have come to prefer 6 deck shoe games. If you find a decent game with good pen, and can play heads up or maybe one other player, you can really rack up the rounds (and EV) quickly. Even more so than a "better" double deck game. AND with much less heat.

Just some thoughts.

DD has always been my BJ game. It's the game I've won a LOT at, and been banned for a couple years as a result of too. I feel very comfortable and in the groove with DD.

Quote: kewlj

Just some thoughts.

KJ:

I wonder if you saw the post by smoothgrh which was a summary in a book of a news article about AP blackjack before Thorpe
the news article is from December 4, 1960
I retrieved it from newspapers.com and it is linked here in 4 pieces - I had to play around with screenshots to get it all
everything is here except the last sentence which is - "Both of them were waiting eagerly last night for a chance to earn a lot more"
I posted this on BJTF and nobody had ever heard of it - I thought it would be sensational - but the attitude there seemed to be no big deal
𝙩𝙤 𝙢𝙚 𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙣𝙚𝙬𝙨 𝙖𝙧𝙩𝙞𝙘𝙡𝙚 𝙞𝙨 𝙖𝙨𝙩𝙤𝙣𝙞𝙨𝙝𝙞𝙣𝙜 - because it predates Thorp's 𝘉𝘦𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘋𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘦𝘳 which came out in 1962

it's all there - some of it overlaps - it's the best I could do - I'm not real geekay
you will have to blow it up to read it - if you click on the image - even though you don't see the usual prompt - Imgur.com will blow it up for you so that it is easily readable
I'm very curious about your opinion of this - to me it is: 𝗮 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘁𝘆 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗵𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗳𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗲 𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗯𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗷𝗮𝗰𝗸

Quote: MDawg

DD has always been my BJ game. It's the game I've won a LOT at, and been banned for a couple years as a result of too. I feel very comfortable and in the groove with DD.

Like I said, you run simulations and DD is almost always the better game with higher win rate. (That is why DD is hawked so closely).

But I'll tell you why I have come to appreciate and prefer 6 deck games. If you get a good 6 deck game head up or with one other player, you can fly through the rounds. 300-400 rounds per hour is quite possible heads up with a decent dealer. This means win rate will be far greater than any DD game with all the shuffling. It also means the time that I, as a card counter am exposed, which is the hands with my larger bets out is minimized because the game moves so quickly. You avoid that "dead time".

The second really good thing, is not often but occasionally, you are playing say, heads up and the count goes positive early and stays there, meaning you can get 50 rounds or so, played at an advantage before the shuffle. Can't do that with DD. Might take you 5-6 hour of DD play to get those 50 rounds at significant advantage.

And finally, in general, you get those benefits with a game that is less "hawked" or better tolerated. And especially if there is a better DD game in the same casino and/or pit. The 6 deck is watched less closely and tolerated better....generally.

A guy that goes by the handle "bigplayer" on some of the blackjack forums, long time member of one of the top and well known teams and member of the BJHoF, one said, for increased longevity, identify the best game in each casino and play the second best. :) (being that the best is the one closely watched).

Quote: lilredrooster

KJ:

I wonder if you saw the post by smoothgrh which was a summary in a book of a news article about AP blackjack before Thorpe
the news article is from December 4, 1960
I retrieved it from newspapers.com and it is linked here in 4 pieces - I had to play around with screenshots to get it all
everything is here except the last sentence which is - "Both of them were waiting eagerly last night for a chance to earn a lot more"
I posted this on BJTF and nobody had ever heard of it - I thought it would be sensational - but the attitude there seemed to be no big deal
𝙩𝙤 𝙢𝙚 𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙣𝙚𝙬𝙨 𝙖𝙧𝙩𝙞𝙘𝙡𝙚 𝙞𝙨 𝙖𝙨𝙩𝙤𝙣𝙞𝙨𝙝𝙞𝙣𝙜 - because it predates Thorp's 𝘉𝘦𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘋𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘦𝘳 which came out in 1962

it's all there - some of it overlaps - it's the best I could do - I'm not real geekay
you will have to blow it up to read it - if you click on the image - even though you don't see the usual prompt - Imgur.com will blow it up for you so that it is easily readable
I'm very curious about your opinion of this - to me it is: 𝗮 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘁𝘆 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗵𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗳𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗲 𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗯𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗷𝗮𝗰𝗸

I did glance at it at BJTF. I do read that forum. lol

I got to say, I don't find it as sensational as you seem to. I think it is commonly thought that there were players using different elementary counts prior to Thorpe. He just publicized it. Similarly, I would be there were players using some variation of basic strategy very similar if not identical before the 4 military guys came up with basic strategy.

As a matter of fact there were likely players using both basic strategy and some sort of elementary count that were pretty unhappy when both these things were publicized.

Just me personally, but I am not a huge fan of Thorpe. I think because he wasn't in it for the money, only the math and publicity. He initially proved his theory by playing Silver Dollars. And then of course, published his findings, having made no real money from it. That is just hard for a guy like me to appreciate. :/

Quote: kewlj

I I don't find it as sensational .

yeah, I get what you're saying - I too knew that there were likely players before Thorp doing something similar
but what I found so astonishing is that this was the first, as far as I know, 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜 display of the power of card tracking
and what they did was likely much more sophisticated and comprehensive than what other players were doing
and basically, these guys are totally unknown
I'm guessing that they didn't fully appreciate what they had done

Quote: kewlj

ASSUMING the virus is still not a big problem? You do know about "assume" right? lol

Las Vegas somewhat back to normal? I am less sure about that. I think blackjack has begun and will continue to change. Things like more electronic games and stadium type TITO games. I think some of these changes were on the horizon anyway but covid-19 will speed up those changes.

I am trying to get away from offering unsolicited advice but since you asked, I have some thoughts.

Can I ask how much experience you have playing blackjack at the limits you are talking about? I ask because you obsession with double deck games, kind of hints you haven't played a good many hours at these limits. Double deck games are sweaty! I mean yeah, you run the numbers on sims, and double deck is far superior to shoe games. But that higher win rate means little, if you can't actually play or play for long.

I mean I live in Vegas and play a home rotation of 30 some casinos (pre-covid) and I only play 4 double deck games despite that there are many more that simulations say are good games. The term some of us that play Vegas like to use is "counter trap". Many DD games, especially at chain casinos are just hawked to closely and intolerant of even smaller spreads. You might get some play in, but only at short bursts and you are better off playing independent casinos, not associated with others, so if you do lose that game for a period of time, it is only at one location rather than a whole chain.

I actually have come to prefer 6 deck shoe games. If you find a decent game with good pen, and can play heads up or maybe one other player, you can really rack up the rounds (and EV) quickly. Even more so than a "better" double deck game. AND with much less heat.

Just some thoughts.

Thanks for the response Kewlj! I appreciate the advice, to answer your question I have a pretty good amount of experience playing 2D games in Vegas, I would say about 600-700 hours or so, all rated and never had any problems. Even got a week stay comped at the Monte Carlo once after playing all night on their $50 min 2D S17 game, that was spreading $50 - $250. Ive played a lot of different places spreading $25 - $250, I guess I've just been very lucky but I've had no back offs in Vegas.
That streak very well may end but as now I plan to hit them as hard as I can, the 2D games in Vegas are just way too lucrative to pass up, I cant make nearly the EV on the 6D games. But I understand what you're saying, you make good points! May I ask, have you had many back offs in Vegas and are there any places you would suggest to avoid?

Quote: theOmega623

Thanks for the response Kewlj! I appreciate the advice, to answer your question I have a pretty good amount of experience playing 2D games in Vegas, I would say about 600-700 hours or so, all rated and never had any problems. Even got a week stay comped at the Monte Carlo once after playing all night on their $50 min game, that was spreading $50 - $250. Ive played a lot of different places spreading $25 - $250, I guess I've just been very lucky but I've had no back offs in Vegas.
That streak very well may end but as now I plan to hit them as hard as I can, the 2D games in Vegas are just way too lucrative to pass up, I cant make nearly the EV on the 6D games. But I understand what you're saying, you make good points! May I ask, have you had many back offs in Vegas and are there any places you would suggest to avoid?

Hey if playing DD is working for you, god bless. Maybe you have a real good act. ?? One thing you have going is $250 max bet is an amount that is tolerated pretty well. If you get up to closer to $500 it starts to become a bigger problem.

Ok, when I moved to Vegas in late 2009, my top priority was longevity. Having worn out my welcome in Atlantic City, I wanted to come up with a plan, style of play and limits that would allow me to play for 10 years (a period that has come and gone and now I would like another 5-10 lol).

So I had ideas about short sessions (perfect for Las Vegas with it's many games) and what limits I wanted to play that I THOUGHT would be better tolerated, but it really took some trial and error to get that down pat. And part of that trial and error involves back offs. My first few years, I would be backed off 6-8 times a year. Maybe 10 times my worst year. As time went on that, number went down to now 3-4. Part of that is you just know they are coming before they do and can avoid them. You just learn to read when your play is making pit uncomfortable.

One tip about backoffs. They are temporary. Best way to survive is to just exit as quickly and quietly as possible, with as little commotion. The least memorable you make yourself and the backoff incident, the better. You aren't going to talk your way out of a backoff (and if you did it would buy you almost nothing), so anything you do or say other than quietly exiting only serves to make you more memorable. Just exit. Stay away from that casino for a month and that shift and pit person for 4-5 months. That usually does it.

Quote: theOmega623

Greetings everyone!
So as I've mentioned before, I've been reevaluating my AP plans for next year and I figured I would share my plans with you guys. Assuming this virus is not still a big problem and Las Vegas is somewhat back to normal, it seems to me what makes the most sense is to focus solely on 2D games. On average, it costs me around $750 - $1k to make the trip to Vegas and other places that offer good 2D games (this includes travel, room, food, everything etc.). I can find descent 6D games closer to me but after running the numbers it just makes logical sense not to waste time on them. By only playing 2D games with at least 60-65% pen using AO2 full indices, I can keep my hourly win rate at around $100/hr (around $12 per shoe in the long run). This will pretty much be picking up where I left off, with the goal being 500 shoes per month, at least 2-3 trips per month. I calculate that as long as I keep my expenses per trip at $1k or less, which should be easy, I expect my EV for the year to be around $50k (after subtracting expenses). This is staying at a $25 unit, as much as I would really like to use a $50 or $100 unit and go for $100 - $200k EV, I just dont see it financially possible. I've considered taking a loan if needed or playing with higher risk, its incredibly tempting but overall not a very smart idea. Anyways, just figured I would run my thoughts by you guys as I'm sitting near the coast waiting on Hurricane Isaias!
Hope all is well guys!
- Omega

I will not comment on your DD game choice. This is up to you.
I am most concerned with your $1000 expenses per trip.
I have a rule of thumb for years: my trip expenses should never be more than 25% of total EV or 50% of CE.
You say you have a $100/hour EV on the games you play. Good. What's the CE and how many hours per trip are you playing to cover these $1000 in expenses?

Quote: kewlj

Hey if playing DD is working for you, god bless. Maybe you have a real good act. ?? One thing you have going is $250 max bet is an amount that is tolerated pretty well. If you get up to closer to $500 it starts to become a bigger problem.

Ok, when I moved to Vegas in late 2009, my top priority was longevity. Having worn out my welcome in Atlantic City, I wanted to come up with a plan, style of play and limits that would allow me to play for 10 years (a period that has come and gone and now I would like another 5-10 lol).

So I had ideas about short sessions (perfect for Las Vegas with it's many games) and what limits I wanted to play that I THOUGHT would be better tolerated, but it really took some trial and error to get that down pat. And part of that trial and error involves back offs. My first few years, I would be backed off 6-8 times a year. Maybe 10 times my worst year. As time went on that, number went down to now 3-4. Part of that is you just know they are coming before they do and can avoid them. You just learn to read when your play is making pit uncomfortable.

One tip about backoffs. They are temporary. Best way to survive is to just exit as quickly and quietly as possible, with as little commotion. The least memorable you make yourself and the backoff incident, the better. You aren't going to talk your way out of a backoff (and if you did it would buy you almost nothing), so anything you do or say other than quietly exiting only serves to make you more memorable. Just exit. Stay away from that casino for a month and that shift and pit person for 4-5 months. That usually does it.

Thanks for sharing your experience Kewlj, I certainly do at least try to put on a good act. I always try to have a brief conversation with the pit boss about the casino, restaurants, my work (mostly made-up crap) and be over friendly. I've found the more talkative the better particularly in between shoes and pretending to drink. I ask the dealer what I should do all the time, then do what I know is correct and act on the results, just stuff like that. Any advice and recommendations I get from other professionals I really take to heart and try to implement it and I share the same attitude with being backed off. The one and only time it happened to me I just said 'Okay, no problem' and went right across the street and kept playing. I remember thinking I would immediately get flagged again, but I played for hours and no problem. Ever since then I just go in with the attitude that if they want to back me off that's fine, no big deal. If it becomes a constant problem once I get back to playing, then I may have to reevaluate things once again. But I'll keep you guys updated and hopefully it wont become a problem.

TheOmega623,

It looks like you chose to ignore my best... (?)
I'm not going to cry over this but you'll be warn... If you don't take special attention to your expenses AND THEIR RATIO TO EV (or CE), you will in the long run get wiped out by them or at best you'll play with a much more higher RoR than you'd think.

Best of luck!

Quote: GMan

TheOmega623,

It looks like you chose to ignore my best... (?)
I'm not going to cry over this but you'll be warn... If you don't take special attention to your expenses AND THEIR RATIO TO EV (or CE), you will in the long run get wiped out by them or at best you'll play with a much more higher RoR than you'd think.

Best of luck!

My apologies Gman, I meant to respond to you in my last post. It was a bit difficult to focus with a screaming infant and a raging hurricane outside lol. I appreciate your advice, as far as CE goes I currently operate with both savings put away to be used solely as a blackjack bankroll and a replenishing amount that is added every month. The replenishing amount more than covers the expenses, so I consistently consider my bankroll to be my savings and I keep risk less than 1%. In fact playing only 2D games using A02 increases both EV and CE and decreases risk. If I were to play solely 6D games close by, I would be spending less to travel but also making much less EV and the ratio of expenses to EV would remain about the same just on a smaller scale, but the risk would be higher. Therefore I come to the conclusion that focusing my time and money on 2D games is the most logical option.

Quote: kewlj

Kewlj,

One tip about backoffs. They are temporary... Stay away from that casino for a month and that shift and pit person for 4-5 months. That usually does it.

On that subject, I got backed off recently - first time. I did not make a scene and quietly cashed in and left. Two suits tapped me on the shoulder and told me I was being flat-bet at table minimum. See you later, sez I.

Without being specific as to the casino, would you say that I could go back? I was foolishly playing almost every day, same time, same pit, since I have been playing for years, low limit, making a little money and living off the points, complimentary shows and eating for free with never a whimper of suspicion.

Since that happened I have stayed away, more due to the pandemic than anything else, other than the worry about getting a stronger warning if I got another tap on the shoulder.

What happens the second time, and with whatever they do nowadays being more automated, can I really expect NOT to be spotted?

Oh - and something else I've always wondered - how is "kewlj" pronounced? "Cool-Jay?" "Cule-J?" "Kwell-gh?"

Quote: theOmega623

My apologies Gman, I meant to respond to you in my last post. It was a bit difficult to focus with a screaming infant and a raging hurricane outside lol. I appreciate your advice, as far as CE goes I currently operate with both savings put away to be used solely as a blackjack bankroll and a replenishing amount that is added every month. The replenishing amount more than covers the expenses, so I consistently consider my bankroll to be my savings and I keep risk less than 1%. In fact playing only 2D games using A02 increases both EV and CE and decreases risk. If I were to play solely 6D games close by, I would be spending less to travel but also making much less EV and the ratio of expenses to EV would remain about the same just on a smaller scale, but the risk would be higher. Therefore I come to the conclusion that focusing my time and money on 2D games is the most logical option.

If the added amount every month covers your expenses, then it's fine.
I hope the hurricane didn't do too much damages...

Quote: GMan

If the added amount every month covers your expenses, then it's fine.
I hope the hurricane didn't do too much damages...

Thanks man, wasn't too bad for us here just some limbs down, we were very fortunate!

Mr Omega.... I think you are starting this venture in the right frame of mind, and are doing some due diligence. It appears to me that you are doing this (at least starting out) more as a 'side gig' than an actual attempt at doing it full time? If so, the risk to you of being banned from a place is lower than a local who will be there much more frequently than you will be.

I wish you luck! Keep us updated!

Quote: racquet

On that subject, I got backed off recently - first time. I did not make a scene and quietly cashed in and left. Two suits tapped me on the shoulder and told me I was being flat-bet at table minimum. See you later, sez I.

Without being specific as to the casino, would you say that I could go back? I was foolishly playing almost every day, same time, same pit, since I have been playing for years, low limit, making a little money and living off the points, complimentary shows and eating for free with never a whimper of suspicion.

Since that happened I have stayed away, more due to the pandemic than anything else, other than the worry about getting a stronger warning if I got another tap on the shoulder.

What happens the second time, and with whatever they do nowadays being more automated, can I really expect NOT to be spotted?

Oh - and something else I've always wondered - how is "kewlj" pronounced? "Cool-Jay?" "Cule-J?" "Kwell-gh?"

Yes, Kewl is pronounced "cool". It made more sense when I used to use my first name in my handle. When I shortened it to J, looks awkward, but whatever.

Yeah, your situation is not a good one. If you have "overplayed" a casino to the point that you are well known, it becomes harder to get them to forget about you. I had some of that going on towards the end of my Atlantic City run. That is why I moved on to a bigger rotation.

I still would try to avoid the shift and the pit personnel involved for a while. Go back at a different time than you normally play with different pit and dealers. Maybe they let you play, maybe they don't. If they do, I would stay away from the personnel involved for 6 months.

I read that pit critters have great memories. I haven't found that to be universally true. Like everything else some do, some don't. Plus they see and deal with a lot of people. You could go back in 6 months and the same Pit guy will be like "hey, haven't see you for a while". He remembers you but not the incident. That is why it is best to just leave quickly and quietly, not making that incident into something bigger that will be remembered. Or you may go back in 6 months, he takes one look at you and say, "yeah, you are flat bet".

Good luck. :)

Quote: SOOPOO

Mr Omega.... I think you are starting this venture in the right frame of mind, and are doing some due diligence. It appears to me that you are doing this (at least starting out) more as a 'side gig' than an actual attempt at doing it full time? If so, the risk to you of being banned from a place is lower than a local who will be there much more frequently than you will be.

I wish you luck! Keep us updated!

Thanks SOOPOO, and I agree with you. While I plan to play the majority of my time in Vegas, I will also be venturing to other places that have good 2D games. I'll keep you guys updated on that as well, like game conditions, heat, etc..

Quote: theOmega623

Thanks SOOPOO, and I agree with you. While I plan to play the majority of my time in Vegas, I will also be venturing to other places that have good 2D games. I'll keep you guys updated on that as well, like game conditions, heat, etc..

Don't give too much details on an open forum... Some people might be lurking!

Omega623, Can I ask if you have other income? You aren't depending on this projected 50k (EV) to support yourself and what sounds like a family are you?

Quote: kewlj

Omega623, Can I ask if you have other income? You aren't depending on this projected 50k (EV) to support yourself and what sounds like a family are you?

Yes I have other income. If I were to decide in the future to play blackjack full-time, it would certainly need to be at least double the amount of playing time I am currently planning to put in and at the black chip level. I may get to that point one day, but we'll see how it goes.

Quote: theOmega623

Yes I have other income. If I were to decide in the future to play blackjack full-time, it would certainly need to be at least double the amount of playing time I am currently planning to put in and at the black chip level. I may get to that point one day, but we'll see how it goes.

Good answer. Good plan.

The reason I asked is because despite that I play blackjack for a living and have for 16 years, it really is almost a thing of the past, especially JUST blackjack AP and especially card counting.

I have my own feeling on the subject that card counting works best as a supplemental or part-time thing these days. I happen to think a retired person, with some retirement income (to cover basic needs) and kids grown and gone is probably the best situation, but other situations where it is part-time or supplemental work too.

I don't mean to hijack or take over your thread, Omega but this seems like a good time for me to share some thoughts on playing professionally or fulltime vs playing part-time, supplemental, even when playing the same or similar stakes. This isn't directed specifially at you and your situation.

1.) Variance. Blackjack through card counting involves huge variance. While there are things a player can do that marginally help, it is just a fact that there is huge variance (big swings). So someone playing part-time, recreationally, supplementally who experiences a major "downturn" can just take a break, without effecting their income and basic living needs and expenses. Professional players, don't really have that luxury.

2.) Expenses associated with playing. I have never liked this. That is why I moved to a place that my home rotation involves very little expense. Most blackjack players travel (as you described) and start out in the hole whatever expenses they incur. That makes it tougher.

3.) you add in needing to take money for living expenses and it confounds the problem 10 times. Just imagine an extended downturn or run that last a few months AND have to withdraw money from your BR for living expenses as you go through that. It just feels like you are bleeding money!

So someone attempting to play professionally and support themselves from card counting, whatever amount of BR you think you need for a reasonable RoR, you need several times more than that if you are taking money out for expenses, especially living expenses.

Quote: kewlj

I don't mean to hijack or take over your thread, Omega but this seems like a good time for me to share some thoughts on playing professionally or fulltime vs playing part-time, supplemental, even when playing the same or similar stakes. This isn't directed specifially at you and your situation.

1.) Variance. Blackjack through card counting involves huge variance. While there are things a player can do that marginally help, it is just a fact that there is huge variance (big swings). So someone playing part-time, recreationally, supplementally who experiences a major "downturn" can just take a break, without effecting their income and basic living needs and expenses. Professional players, don't really have that luxury.

2.) Expenses associated with playing. I have never liked this. That is why I moved to a place that my home rotation involves very little expense. Most blackjack players travel (as you described) and start out in the hole whatever expenses they incur. That makes it tougher.

3.) you add in needing to take money for living expenses and it confounds the problem 10 times. Just imagine an extended downturn or run that last a few months AND have to withdraw money from your BR for living expenses as you go through that. It just feels like you are bleeding money!

So someone attempting to play professionally and support themselves from card counting, whatever amount of BR you think you need for a reasonable RoR, you need several times more than that if you are taking money out for expenses, especially living expenses.

Great advice Kewlj, it's much appreciated!

Actually, i like more texas poker, but blackjack is also vry interesting game.

Kewlj I have a question maybe you could answer, or perhaps someone else on the forum..When I started back playing this year I decided to make my top bet 1% of my bankroll with the goal of doubling my bank before resizing. As you know I use a spread of $25-$250 (top bet coming out at +5) but on occasion I have played 2D S17 games spreading $50-$250 if the game has good pen. Right now my bank is sitting around that half way point, so my question is would it make sense to go ahead and resize my top bet to 1% of my current bank? For example, if I decide to play a 2D S17 $50 min game, I run a spread of $50-$350 and then continue to resize that top bet based off my current bankroll? My understanding is that consistently resizing creates a drag on return, but I'm trying to figure if it's the optimal thing to do.

What? You have 1% of your BR as a top bet? So your minimum BR is $25K on a $25-$250 spread? You're halfway to $50K and you wonder when you can level up to...a $50-$500 spread?

I'd add a $5-$50 spread to every $5K you're ahead. If you win 20 $250 bets, you can increase your spread to $30-$300.
Or add a $10-$100 spread to every $10K you're ahead.
But lower your bets again if you fall below those balances where you raised your spread.

Quote: ChumpChange

What? You have 1% of your BR as a top bet? So your minimum BR is $25K on a $25-$250 spread? You're halfway to $50K and you wonder when you can level up to...a $50-$500 spread?

I'd add a $5-$50 spread to every $5K you're ahead. If you win 20 $250 bets, you can increase your spread to $30-$300.
Or add a $10-$100 spread to every $10K you're ahead.
But lower your bets again if you fall below those balances where you raised your spread.

Yes I was planning to wait until my bankroll had reached $50k to resize up to a $50-$500 spread, but now thinking of resizing in between. Would doing this logically make sense? I am thinking it would, but it cant hurt to get some input from the forum..

Thanks for the input Chump Change!

For those of you who are professional or semi-professional AP's, how do you manage your own bankroll? Do you use a fixed strategy or proportional? If proportional, how often do you resize your bets?

Quote: theOmega623

Yes I was planning to wait until my bankroll had reached $50k to resize up to a $50-$500 spread, but now thinking of resizing in between. Would doing this logically make sense? I am thinking it would, but it cant hurt to get some input from the forum..

Thanks for the input Chump Change!

you need to pay someone to do simulations, theres no way any of our generalizations will equate to exact answers when it comes to the money you are risking. Im sure you can find so many papers on things like this on google scholar.

Heatmap is correct, you need simulations. They will answer most of your questions. But rather than pay someone to run sim, you should invest in software to run them yourself. Anyone serious about blackjack through card counter and playing at your level of play, it is an investment well worth the price. I recommend Qfit software products. not only do the sims answer all your questions, but you learn things you wouldn't expect, just playing around with the software.

As for re-sizing, while my understanding is frequent re-sizing is optimal, in both directions, I personally am not a big fan of 'frequent' resizing. It can be extremely frustrating to lose a significant portion of BR at one max bet size and then have to resize and try to win it back playing half the max bet. For this reason, when I was growing BR, I didn't re-size often. I would rather play conservatively for the bankroll I have and only have to resize, should I hit a massive downtown.

I remember back not that many years ago, I began a year on a 4 month, downturn. I was playing to a 100k, bankroll, and lost 32 grand I believe or just about a third. I should have resized at that point. Probably "should have" at about 25k loss. But I hated the idea of trying to win that money back playing a lower max bet. So I talked myself into continuing at the same spread, ramp and max bet and promised I would resize at 40k loss.

As it turned out, things turned right there. I actually went on a massive upturn, winning winning over 115k over 5 weeks, which was an extraordinary amount for the levels I was playing. I just couldn't lose, everyday, every casino, every max bet, every double down seemed to win. I was winning so fast, I felt my play was drawing attention at my regular stores and ended up taking a break for a few weeks, just to let things cool down. That year which started out so bad, ended up being my best year (still to date)and I have never had a run of weeks or months like that 5 week run since. Had I reduced max bet, as I should have, that run would have been considerably less.

Quote: kewlj

Heatmap is correct, you need simulations. They will answer most of your questions. But rather than pay someone to run sim, you should invest in software to run them yourself. Anyone serious about blackjack through card counter and playing at your level of play, it is an investment well worth the price. I recommend Qfit software products. not only do the sims answer all your questions, but you learn things you wouldn't expect, just playing around with the software.

As for re-sizing, while my understanding is frequent re-sizing is optimal, in both directions, I personally am not a big fan of 'frequent' resizing. It can be extremely frustrating to lose a significant portion of BR at one max bet size and then have to resize and try to win it back playing half the max bet. For this reason, when I was growing BR, I didn't re-size often. I would rather play conservatively for the bankroll I have and only have to resize, should I hit a massive downtown.

I remember back not that many years ago, I began a year on a 4 month, downturn. I was playing to a 100k, bankroll, and lost 32 grand I believe or just about a third. I should have resized at that point. Probably "should have" at about 25k loss. But I hated the idea of trying to win that money back playing a lower max bet. So I talked myself into continuing at the same spread, ramp and max bet and promised I would resize at 40k loss.

As it turned out, things turned right there. I actually went on a massive upturn, winning winning over 115k over 5 weeks, which was an extraordinary amount for the levels I was playing. I just couldn't lose, everyday, every casino, every max bet, every double down seemed to win. I was winning so fast, I felt my play was drawing attention at my regular stores and ended up taking a break for a few weeks, just to let things cool down. That year which started out so bad, ended up being my best year (still to date)and I have never had a run of weeks or months like that 5 week run since. Had I reduced max bet, as I should have, that run would have been considerably less.

Thanks for telling that story Kewlj, that's pretty incredible!

After doing some research on this for the past couple hours, I understand that frequent resizing is always optimal at half-Kelly value, both upsizing and downsizing. For example, with a starting bankroll of $25k using Omega 2 ($250 top bet) my risk is around 1%, obviously as I win or lose money that risk changes. By frequently resizing, I keep risk at 1% but I must downsize as well after a loss to stay at that risk level. So resizing in the real world is just personal preference based on acceptable risk and expected value. Makes sense, I'm not exactly sure why I didnt already figure that one out lol. Found several good articles and videos on fixed betting vs proportional betting online though, interesting stuff.

Poker is a really good option

Quote: RachelBuckland

Poker is a really good option

Only 18 more posts to go. I can’t wait!

Quote: unJon

Only 18 more posts to go. I can’t wait!

Whaddy think, Nathan?

Quote: kewlj

A guy that goes by the handle "bigplayer" on some of the blackjack forums, long time member of one of the top and well known teams and member of the BJHoF, one said, for increased longevity, identify the best game in each casino and play the second best. :) (being that the best is the one closely watched).

I posted this earlier in this thread. Turns out I was mistaken about "bigplayer" being a member of the BJHoF. Oddly someone read my quote here and ran to another forum (that I am not on) to discuss it, rather than discuss it directly with me. But that's ok, that is the way these forums are now.

So "bigplayer" is a longterm member of one of the top long running BJ teams. I learned a great deal from him over the years and often quote him as I did above. The fact that i mistakenly thought he was in the BJHoF doesn't change anything for me. He is at the top of players I hold in high regard. I apologize for the mistake.

I was a little confused by that, and thought about PMing you about it but decided it wasn't that important.