blackjack win streak promo
Quote: WigginsAn online casino is offering players a share of a $50k prize pool if they can win 7 blackjack hands in a row. Hands with no net win or loss are considered pushes and don't end the streak. Can someone please give me a rough idea of how much I can expect to lose playing $1 per hand until I hit such a streak? I want to maximize my chance of winning each hand, so I'm guessing I shouldn't double against a dealer 7+. And definitely never surrendering. The game is S17. It's a weeklong promo and the winners split the prize pool equally. The site is open to residents of PA and NJ.
With your revised basic strategy, you have to find out the the probability of WIN, LOSS and PUSH.
From there, it is possible to find out no of hands that you have bet continuously before you can win 7 blackjack hands in a row.
Might be a bunch of other situations where you sacrifice Ev for the purpose of not risking losing overall on a hand and ending your streak
When I ran a simulation (UK 6 decks 10m shoes), it counted each hand including splits, so for every 100 hands played..
45.181 hands won
52.453 hands lost
8.808 hands tied
106.242 hands played
As a tied hand is worth about 46.28%, on close decisions you're better off going for winning more often at the cost of losing even more often, so would tend to stand slightly earlier.
Early on I think it's best to play as normal except for close decisions stand rather than hit. Later on you might prefer to stand on lower totals. For instance with 12 vs 2 if you stand you will either win or lose, whereas hitting some of the EV is made up of tying with the dealer, however it's still best to hit. Whereas against a 3 you should consider standing, although it still looks better to hit.
Also there might be times where you split or don't, I haven't analysed it. For instance it might be better to split 9s vs 7 if it counted as two wins if both hands win, but you'd stay if it was based on the net result. On the other hand splitting 9s vs low cards is a money making opportunity, so sometimes you mght be better off standing if you weren't allowed to lose a hand (i.e. you might get two wins, but a win/lose would end your streak).
NOTE: These figures are infinite decks.
12 vs 2 | WIN | TIE | LOSE |
Stand 12 | 35.360 814% | 0.000 000% | 64.639 186% |
Hit 12 | 34.844 378% | 4.972 245% | 60.183 377% |
12 vs 3 | WIN | TIE | LOSE |
Stand 12 | 37.387 489% | 0.000 000% | 62.612 511% |
Hit 12 | 35.907 281% | 4.816 347% | 59.276 371% |
If you mean actual "21" Blackjacks, that's a harder set of hands.
Sidenote: if the Coronavirus was an internet virus, the internet would shut down.
Quote: charliepatrickInteresting, do you know what the rule is if you split. Does each hand have to win or is it the overall score? It might affect some of the decisions as noted below.
The terms say "A win is considered a hand that has a positive net return to the player." Splitting and winning both hands would count as only one win. It did occur to me that I should buy insurance most of the time, since a dealer BJ would result in a neutral return and my streak would be preserved.
The biggest unknown is the number of players, but I think the prize pool is big enough to make it worthwhile.
I'd also bet in multiples of $2 so I'd get paid in whole dollars. Probably do a buy-in of $50 and try to double or nothing the buy-in over a 100+ hands.
Quote: sabreI'd put the o/u at 2,000 players that accomplish this. So enjoy your $25.
Ha, the site used those exact numbers in the terms as an example when explaining the payouts. So you're probably not far off.
Fortunately I did it in only 58 hands and didn't face any tough strategy decisions. I did lose $7.50 though lol
Quote: ChumpChangeI'd buy Insurance on 20's or 21's.
I'd also bet in multiples of $2 so I'd get paid in whole dollars. Probably do a buy-in of $50 and try to double or nothing the buy-in over a 100+ hands.
???
I assume he's sitting at home doing nothing anyways. As far as I'm concerned, value is value especially if you're sitting at home doing nothing and you enjoy doing it.Quote: sabreI'd put the o/u at 2,000 players that accomplish this. So enjoy your $25.
Quote: WigginsAn online casino is offering players a share of a $50k prize pool if they can win 7 blackjack hands in a row. Hands with no net win or loss are considered pushes and don't end the streak. Can someone please give me a rough idea of how much I can expect to lose playing $1 per hand until I hit such a streak? I want to maximize my chance of winning each hand, so I'm guessing I shouldn't double against a dealer 7+. And definitely never surrendering. The game is S17. It's a weeklong promo and the winners split the prize pool equally. The site is open to residents of PA and NJ.
Can you only qualify once?
Quote: SOOPOOCan you only qualify once?
Correct
Quote: AxelWolfI assume he's sitting at home doing nothing anyways. As far as I'm concerned, value is value especially if you're sitting at home doing nothing and you enjoy doing it.
Also correct. These online sites in PA will often do slot promotions worth a buck or two in EV. I haven't missed a single one in the last eight weeks lol
People pay to play video games with no monetary +EV.Quote: WigginsCorrect
Also correct. These online sites in PA will often do slot promotions worth a buck or two in EV. I haven't missed a single one in the last eight weeks lol
Quote: sabreI'd put the o/u at 2,000 players that accomplish this. So enjoy your $25.
Apparently the "one week qualifying period" in the T&C was a mistake because they ended the promo after one day. I'm not complaining obviously. ~420 people split the 50k. $119 each.
Quote: Wiggins(snip)Fortunately I did it in only 58 hands and didn't face any tough strategy decisions. I did lose $7.50 though lol
(snip)
Quote:(snip) ~420 people split the 50k. $119 each.
If you play BJ a lot, I am guessing you took between 4-8 minutes to play that many hands?
Any profit is good, but $111.50 profit in that amount of time is awesome, congrats.
Quote: WigginsYeah that sounds about right. On that subject, a different site (PA only) started a 3-day promo today where they are paying the top 10 players who play the most blackjack hands at $5 minimum. Win/loss is irrelevant. The prize pool is 10k (3k to 1st place). I can play at least 1200 hands per hour with no mistakes (that includes a few short breaks). They don't have a leaderboard posted but they did say they would email the standings tomorrow. I played three hands today to make sure I even get an email. Depending on the competition so far I might take a shot. Luckily the PA blackjack rules are really good so my expected loss would only be $360ish for 20k hands.
That seems like a great promo for you, at my fastest I was only ever able to play about 900-1000 hands per hour.
Currently I play somewhere around 450 to 600 hands per hour, but my computer and/or internet is slower now than it was back then, mixed in with my vision being a bit worse now
Is the game one where you can play in "auto mode*** " ?
***: if yes, make sure you are not breaking the promotion terms and conditions if you decide to use it (for example, during a lunch break ).
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Update (about 1030 pm): If you were playing a version of BJ that you are used to playing, then you possibly finished the previous promotion in under 3 minutes (58 hands into 1200 hands per hour)
Quote: Mart89I'm sorry for posting but did you manage to win something? I want to know because I will participate in a tournament and I hope you can give me an advice.
In a tournament you have to watch what others are doing and their stacks. If they are flat betting then you need to use a progressive system of letting wins ride. If they are progressing bets you need to bet flat and hope they lose. Then near the end you have to go for broke and bet big.
