Wiggins
Wiggins
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May 11th, 2020 at 8:11:19 AM permalink
An online casino is offering players a share of a $50k prize pool if they can win 7 blackjack hands in a row. Hands with no net win or loss are considered pushes and don't end the streak. Can someone please give me a rough idea of how much I can expect to lose playing $1 per hand until I hit such a streak? I want to maximize my chance of winning each hand, so I'm guessing I shouldn't double against a dealer 7+. And definitely never surrendering. The game is S17. It's a weeklong promo and the winners split the prize pool equally. The site is open to residents of PA and NJ.
ssho88
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May 11th, 2020 at 8:20:28 AM permalink
Quote: Wiggins

An online casino is offering players a share of a $50k prize pool if they can win 7 blackjack hands in a row. Hands with no net win or loss are considered pushes and don't end the streak. Can someone please give me a rough idea of how much I can expect to lose playing $1 per hand until I hit such a streak? I want to maximize my chance of winning each hand, so I'm guessing I shouldn't double against a dealer 7+. And definitely never surrendering. The game is S17. It's a weeklong promo and the winners split the prize pool equally. The site is open to residents of PA and NJ.



With your revised basic strategy, you have to find out the the probability of WIN, LOSS and PUSH.

From there, it is possible to find out no of hands that you have bet continuously before you can win 7 blackjack hands in a row.
sabre
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May 11th, 2020 at 9:00:23 AM permalink
Which part of the calculation are you having trouble with?
michael99000
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May 11th, 2020 at 9:09:45 AM permalink
If you split 8s against a dealer 9, and let’s say you make 21 on the first hand of the split. Then pull a 3 on the second hand for 11. Im thinking you don’t want to double that 11.

Might be a bunch of other situations where you sacrifice Ev for the purpose of not risking losing overall on a hand and ending your streak
sabre
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May 11th, 2020 at 9:21:28 AM permalink
Depends how far you are into your streak though. If you're on hand 1 or 2 I'd guess you just play it straight up. Hand 5/6 you're never doubling vs dealer 7-T or surrendering.
charliepatrick
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May 11th, 2020 at 10:24:27 AM permalink
Interesting, do you know what the rule is if you split. Does each hand have to win or is it the overall score? It might affect some of the decisions as noted below.


When I ran a simulation (UK 6 decks 10m shoes), it counted each hand including splits, so for every 100 hands played..
45.181 hands won
52.453 hands lost
8.808 hands tied
106.242 hands played
As a tied hand is worth about 46.28%, on close decisions you're better off going for winning more often at the cost of losing even more often, so would tend to stand slightly earlier.

Early on I think it's best to play as normal except for close decisions stand rather than hit. Later on you might prefer to stand on lower totals. For instance with 12 vs 2 if you stand you will either win or lose, whereas hitting some of the EV is made up of tying with the dealer, however it's still best to hit. Whereas against a 3 you should consider standing, although it still looks better to hit.

Also there might be times where you split or don't, I haven't analysed it. For instance it might be better to split 9s vs 7 if it counted as two wins if both hands win, but you'd stay if it was based on the net result. On the other hand splitting 9s vs low cards is a money making opportunity, so sometimes you mght be better off standing if you weren't allowed to lose a hand (i.e. you might get two wins, but a win/lose would end your streak).
NOTE: These figures are infinite decks.
12 vs 2
WIN
TIE
LOSE
Stand 12
35.360 814%
0.000 000%
64.639 186%
Hit 12
34.844 378%
4.972 245%
60.183 377%

12 vs 3
WIN
TIE
LOSE
Stand 12
37.387 489%
0.000 000%
62.612 511%
Hit 12
35.907 281%
4.816 347%
59.276 371%
ChumpChange
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May 11th, 2020 at 10:35:06 AM permalink
My progression goes to 10 wins in a row excluding pushes.

If you mean actual "21" Blackjacks, that's a harder set of hands.

Sidenote: if the Coronavirus was an internet virus, the internet would shut down.
Wiggins
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May 11th, 2020 at 11:23:59 AM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

Interesting, do you know what the rule is if you split. Does each hand have to win or is it the overall score? It might affect some of the decisions as noted below.


The terms say "A win is considered a hand that has a positive net return to the player." Splitting and winning both hands would count as only one win. It did occur to me that I should buy insurance most of the time, since a dealer BJ would result in a neutral return and my streak would be preserved.

The biggest unknown is the number of players, but I think the prize pool is big enough to make it worthwhile.
ChumpChange
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May 11th, 2020 at 11:34:18 AM permalink
I'd buy Insurance on 20's or 21's.
I'd also bet in multiples of $2 so I'd get paid in whole dollars. Probably do a buy-in of $50 and try to double or nothing the buy-in over a 100+ hands.
sabre
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Joeman
May 11th, 2020 at 12:31:32 PM permalink
I'd put the o/u at 2,000 players that accomplish this. So enjoy your $25.
Wiggins
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May 11th, 2020 at 12:58:39 PM permalink
Quote: sabre

I'd put the o/u at 2,000 players that accomplish this. So enjoy your $25.



Ha, the site used those exact numbers in the terms as an example when explaining the payouts. So you're probably not far off.

Fortunately I did it in only 58 hands and didn't face any tough strategy decisions. I did lose $7.50 though lol


Quote: ChumpChange

I'd buy Insurance on 20's or 21's.
I'd also bet in multiples of $2 so I'd get paid in whole dollars. Probably do a buy-in of $50 and try to double or nothing the buy-in over a 100+ hands.


???
AxelWolf
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May 11th, 2020 at 1:38:41 PM permalink
Quote: sabre

I'd put the o/u at 2,000 players that accomplish this. So enjoy your $25.

I assume he's sitting at home doing nothing anyways. As far as I'm concerned, value is value especially if you're sitting at home doing nothing and you enjoy doing it.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SOOPOO
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May 11th, 2020 at 2:04:11 PM permalink
Quote: Wiggins

An online casino is offering players a share of a $50k prize pool if they can win 7 blackjack hands in a row. Hands with no net win or loss are considered pushes and don't end the streak. Can someone please give me a rough idea of how much I can expect to lose playing $1 per hand until I hit such a streak? I want to maximize my chance of winning each hand, so I'm guessing I shouldn't double against a dealer 7+. And definitely never surrendering. The game is S17. It's a weeklong promo and the winners split the prize pool equally. The site is open to residents of PA and NJ.



Can you only qualify once?
gordonm888
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May 11th, 2020 at 2:38:07 PM permalink
deleted
Last edited by: gordonm888 on May 11, 2020
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Wiggins
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May 11th, 2020 at 3:16:20 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Can you only qualify once?



Correct

Quote: AxelWolf

I assume he's sitting at home doing nothing anyways. As far as I'm concerned, value is value especially if you're sitting at home doing nothing and you enjoy doing it.



Also correct. These online sites in PA will often do slot promotions worth a buck or two in EV. I haven't missed a single one in the last eight weeks lol
AxelWolf
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May 11th, 2020 at 4:38:03 PM permalink
Quote: Wiggins

Correct



Also correct. These online sites in PA will often do slot promotions worth a buck or two in EV. I haven't missed a single one in the last eight weeks lol

People pay to play video games with no monetary +EV.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Wiggins
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May 12th, 2020 at 6:48:21 PM permalink
Quote: sabre

I'd put the o/u at 2,000 players that accomplish this. So enjoy your $25.



Apparently the "one week qualifying period" in the T&C was a mistake because they ended the promo after one day. I'm not complaining obviously. ~420 people split the 50k. $119 each.
ksdjdj
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May 12th, 2020 at 7:50:30 PM permalink
Quote: Wiggins

(snip)Fortunately I did it in only 58 hands and didn't face any tough strategy decisions. I did lose $7.50 though lol
(snip)


Quote:

(snip) ~420 people split the 50k. $119 each.


If you play BJ a lot, I am guessing you took between 4-8 minutes to play that many hands?
Any profit is good, but $111.50 profit in that amount of time is awesome, congrats.
Wiggins
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May 12th, 2020 at 8:54:06 PM permalink
Yeah that sounds about right. On that subject, a different site (PA only) started a 3-day promo today where they are paying the top 10 players who play the most blackjack hands at $5 minimum. Win/loss is irrelevant. The prize pool is 10k (3k to 1st place). I can play at least 1200 hands per hour with no mistakes (that includes a few short breaks). They don't have a leaderboard posted but they did say they would email the standings tomorrow. I played three hands today to make sure I even get an email. Depending on the competition so far I might take a shot. Luckily the PA blackjack rules are really good so my expected loss would only be $360ish for 20k hands.
ksdjdj
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May 12th, 2020 at 10:20:54 PM permalink
Quote: Wiggins

Yeah that sounds about right. On that subject, a different site (PA only) started a 3-day promo today where they are paying the top 10 players who play the most blackjack hands at $5 minimum. Win/loss is irrelevant. The prize pool is 10k (3k to 1st place). I can play at least 1200 hands per hour with no mistakes (that includes a few short breaks). They don't have a leaderboard posted but they did say they would email the standings tomorrow. I played three hands today to make sure I even get an email. Depending on the competition so far I might take a shot. Luckily the PA blackjack rules are really good so my expected loss would only be $360ish for 20k hands.


That seems like a great promo for you, at my fastest I was only ever able to play about 900-1000 hands per hour.

Currently I play somewhere around 450 to 600 hands per hour, but my computer and/or internet is slower now than it was back then, mixed in with my vision being a bit worse now

Is the game one where you can play in "auto mode*** " ?

***: if yes, make sure you are not breaking the promotion terms and conditions if you decide to use it (for example, during a lunch break ).

----
Update (about 1030 pm): If you were playing a version of BJ that you are used to playing, then you possibly finished the previous promotion in under 3 minutes (58 hands into 1200 hands per hour)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on May 13, 2020
Mart89
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July 31st, 2020 at 9:13:58 AM permalink
I'm sorry for posting but did you manage to win something? I want to know because I will participate in a tournament and I hope you can give me an advice.
Mart89
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August 14th, 2020 at 5:31:52 AM permalink
Can you help me?
AZDuffman
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August 15th, 2020 at 4:54:10 AM permalink
Quote: Mart89

I'm sorry for posting but did you manage to win something? I want to know because I will participate in a tournament and I hope you can give me an advice.



In a tournament you have to watch what others are doing and their stacks. If they are flat betting then you need to use a progressive system of letting wins ride. If they are progressing bets you need to bet flat and hope they lose. Then near the end you have to go for broke and bet big.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Mart89
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August 15th, 2020 at 8:29:23 AM permalink
Hey, Wiggins. I hope that this casino will organize this event in the near future because I'm ready to win. I started playing 3 months ago and I can say that I'm improving a lot, I think that happened because I was playing as much as possible. When I was a beginner, I decided to find a site, where I can play blackjack for free in order to learn how to play it, I've been searching for 3 hours and I found the site where I can play blackjack online. I can say that my results improved since I started playing there, I manage to outplay even the people, which have been playing in this game for a year.
Last edited by: Mart89 on Aug 15, 2020
maddistrong
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August 18th, 2020 at 7:49:20 AM permalink
I am going to participate
Maddison.
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