TDVegas
TDVegas
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
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May 6th, 2020 at 5:04:31 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I can't remember the exact details, but I qualified for 3 entries to some online giveaway, for no charge. I actually read the rules, and the terms had it such that the best customers could easily qualify for millions of entries. i remember trying to figure out what my entries were actually worth (EV), and it was some very small fraction of a penny.

I think the casino problem is that it is deceptive. Entrants should have a general idea what their chances of winning are, but probably have no way to figure it out.


Correct. There used to be around 100 people who would come for the drawings. They are lucky to see 15-20 waiting there now. Basically word spread that your chances were probably zero unless you were a top tier players. The reality is you have no idea whatsoever how many "entries" or tickets they are awarding to those they would like to see win their big prizes.

Blogs and articles like this didn't help.

https://www.nolandalla.com/stations-casinos-monthly-drawing-rigged/
TDVegas
TDVegas
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
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May 6th, 2020 at 5:19:51 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

If I buy 10 tickets in a raffle , and you buy 1 ticket, I have a much better chance of winning the prize. But the actual drawing of the winning ticket is random, the winning ticket is selected from amongst all entries, each individual entry with the same chance.

Random doesn’t have to mean Each Person has the same chance.

The casino contests are the same. Just that the bigger players have “purchased” more tickets. Playing big in the casino is akin to having purchased more raffle tickets.


Typically in cases like this...the entries are capped so they aren't raffeling off a $25,000 car and selling $300,000 in entries....or $3 million.

In the casino....the reality is the players have no clue whatsoever how many entries are being awarded and to what "skew" do they basically ensure their top players win. That's fine....but these contests are deceptive, IMO....as their intent is to get as many people in the "store" without anyone knowing what kind of chance they have or my contention...that their chance is about nil.

My contention is Station Casinos is awarding ZERO cars to their 60% red card holders, their 18% gold card holders or their 12% platinum card holders. Every car, every month is going to either their 6% President card holders and 4% Chairman card holders. Some chairman are winning multiple cars. I’m willing to accept a counter argument. Show me I’m wrong, Stations. They always post a picture of the winner. Post the picture with them holding their player card and the car keys. Then I shut up.

They are so heavily skewed...you are effectively wasting your time unless you are in the 10%....4%.

It's business...I get it. Reward the players you know you'll get it back and then some. I still think it's a deceptive practice of how these contests, giveaways, prizes are advertised.
Last edited by: TDVegas on May 6, 2020
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
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May 6th, 2020 at 6:57:15 PM permalink
When big money is involved, anything is possible. Just because one doesnt get caught in the act, doesnt mean the act did not happen.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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May 7th, 2020 at 12:10:50 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

Random does not mean equal. 100% drawings are weighted based on play. Every casino does that and all I have seen or been apart of disclose how the entries are earned. Most of the time by theoretical loss. The random is who gets picked once the amount of entries are determined. And much of the time that's the big players because they have far and away more entries.


ZCore13

Every time we have this discussion you bring up something similar to this. I'm not talking about
Drawings that have disproportionate tickets because someone plays heavier than another.

There have been casinos known to purposely avoid Advantage Players drawing tickets, and purposely toss tickets back in the drum because someone was drawn who they didn't want to win. There's been cases of ticket palming and other various sketchy things. I've been a victim of these types of things more than once.



https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/question/venetian-rigging-a-drawing/
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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Thanks for this post from:
TDVegas
May 7th, 2020 at 6:15:19 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Every time we have this discussion you bring up something similar to this. I'm not talking about
Drawings that have disproportionate tickets because someone plays heavier than another.

There have been casinos known to purposely avoid Advantage Players drawing tickets, and purposely toss tickets back in the drum because someone was drawn who they didn't want to win. There's been cases of ticket palming and other various sketchy things. I've been a victim of these types of things more than once.



https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/question/venetian-rigging-a-drawing/



I am 99.9% sure I was screwed on a big Ventetian drawing about 10 years ago. They were giving away $300,000 by drawing 50 names for tickets earned over a weekend. I would guess I earned as many or more tickets than anyone else in the drawing and didn't get selected at all with 50 tickets drawn. These were virtual tickets. I think it was the next year that Venetian got busted for fixing their drawings.
Order from chaos
TDVegas
TDVegas
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
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May 7th, 2020 at 8:00:45 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I am 99.9% sure I was screwed on a big Ventetian drawing about 10 years ago. They were giving away $300,000 by drawing 50 names for tickets earned over a weekend. I would guess I earned as many or more tickets than anyone else in the drawing and didn't get selected at all with 50 tickets drawn. These were virtual tickets. I think it was the next year that Venetian got busted for fixing their drawings.


I don't think the casinos cheat on any casino game....but I do think their larger giveaways are so heavily weighted to certain players that it all but ensures they will win everytime. I had heard about the Venetian scandal and I would not be surprised to know it's done elsewhere.

My suggestion was for Station Casinos...on any of their giveaways (cars, cash awards, trips, etc) to be transparent on a small level. You aren't giving out names, or pictures...simply only list the prize and card tier level. Simple.

January 5....Escalade. Chairman
January 9....$10,000. Chairman
January 11...Tahiti trip. Chairman
January 12...$5,000. President
January 14...Mustang. Chairman
January 17...$10,000. Chairman
January 22...Jet ski. President
January 27..."any time, any slot" $15,000. Chairman

This way....people will get an idea of their chances. If this continues into the next month and the next and the next...then ploppie knows what his chances are. About zero.

It's an easy solution to questions on how these contests are run. They'll never do it because they know the winner list is going to look exactly as I posted it. Month after month.
MJGolf
MJGolf
Joined: Aug 17, 2016
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August 16th, 2020 at 7:42:41 AM permalink
Back to Automatic/ASM shufflers. I thought these took awhile to shuffle because they first checked the cards/decks to make sure that all of the cards were in the deck(s) and that there were no duplicates of any cards. THEN they random shuffled. Having personally played them and seen both high and negative counts below and above +1 by far, I don't see how you can say they are "rigged" to keep within a certain tolerance level. As the Wiz said in his post above, if they were always meant to be within this certain range, what's the difference long term to the actual EV? Wouldn't it be the same as his 'infinite deck" calculations? The game ALWAYS has a HE in favor of the casino. Why would they or the manufacturer go to such lengths to just have a game that always was where the HE was anyways? Be logical folks.

Romes is very learned at this game of Blackjack but to get to his 'changes in the count' as game progresses would require the cards to be put BACK into the shuffler to change the order again. Obviously this doesn't occur with an ASM. As to a CSM, there are pictures online that show the inner workings and "shelves" of cards that are dealt. The machine cannot MOVE these shelves in non random order to sub out the three or five cards in each batch IF somehow it "learned" that the count or order "favored" the players. They are metal and stiff plastic and on a 'wheel" apparatus. The spokes of that wheel don't move about themselves.

Does cheating occur? I'm sure it does, having seen it from players AND collusion with dealers and their friends. But I don't see this as a system wide or casino wide enterprise. They already have the laws of large numbers in their favor. If you were running a house or garage blackjack game, which side would you choose? To bank or to play............LOL
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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August 16th, 2020 at 9:01:42 AM permalink
The automatic machines are given the discard pile & what's left in the shoe once, and the continuous shuffle machines take every discard pile after every hand? I'd rather go with the automatic shuffle machines for a better count spread. Problem is is when the dealer early shuffles because you're winning or is informing surveillance you're a counter.

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