Deck true count > +2
April 13th, 2020 at 1:46:45 PM
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I read an article concerning this a couple of weeks ago but the numbers were estimated. In a 6-deck shoe, and using the hi/lo count system, what percent of the time will the shoe have a true count of greater than +2? In other words, how often, on average, does a shoe become very favorable to the player?
April 13th, 2020 at 8:35:11 PM
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Hi tim53sum, welcome to the forums.
6D shoe, 62 cut off for PEN (80%), the TC will be > +2 (so TC >= +3 as you asked): 9.86% of the time.
INCLUDING TC +2, which is 6.53% that would bump it up to 16.39%.
In my A-Z blackjack articles on this very site under the Articles section I posted my quick cheat sheets (excel sheets) for calculating quick spreads and EV's... and in those cells you can see PER true count what the frequencies are.
6D shoe, 62 cut off for PEN (80%), the TC will be > +2 (so TC >= +3 as you asked): 9.86% of the time.
INCLUDING TC +2, which is 6.53% that would bump it up to 16.39%.
In my A-Z blackjack articles on this very site under the Articles section I posted my quick cheat sheets (excel sheets) for calculating quick spreads and EV's... and in those cells you can see PER true count what the frequencies are.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
April 13th, 2020 at 9:05:47 PM
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Using CVCX by QFIT, you will get a Hi/Lo count of +2 or more about 17.3% of the time. This is for a 80% penetration on a 6 decks game with the TC floored.
This is based on a 2,000,000,000 (2 billions) simulated rounds of BJ.
This is based on a 2,000,000,000 (2 billions) simulated rounds of BJ.
Last edited by: GMan on Apr 14, 2020
G Man
April 14th, 2020 at 4:25:08 AM
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I only have figure for UK rules using 6 decks with a cutoff of 83% and 66%, and for 10m shoes the percentages were 16.75% and 12.86%.
April 14th, 2020 at 8:08:53 PM
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I did a combinatorial analysis for the distribution of hi-lo counts for 312 cards remaining, 311 cards remaining, and so on down through 104 cards remaining. Averaging the results, I get probabilities of 13.34% for true counts greater than 2 and 13.45% for true counts greater or equal to 2.
April 14th, 2020 at 8:35:51 PM
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Yes, but he specifically asked for 80% penetration, which is 62 cards remaining,
G Man
April 14th, 2020 at 10:14:30 PM
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Quote: GManYes, but he specifically asked for 80% penetration, which is 62 cards remaining,
Thanks!
A combinatorial analysis averaged over remaining cards of 62, 63, 64, and so on through 312 finds the probability that the precise true hi-lo is greater than +2 is 16.540%. And the probability of a true count of exactly (not rounded) +2 is 0.115%.
Last edited by: ChesterDog on Apr 14, 2020
April 15th, 2020 at 3:26:37 AM
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Quote: ChesterDogThanks!
A combinatorial analysis averaged over remaining cards of 62, 63, 64, and so on through 312 finds the probability that the precise true hi-lo is greater than +2 is 16.540%. And the probability of a true count of exactly (not rounded) +2 is 0.115%.
Should we include the TC of last hand of every shoe for % computations ? Please note that players have no chance to bet despite the TC of the last hand is high(or more than 2).
Edited
If including the TC of last hand of a shoe, probability for TC >=2 is 16.77%. If not counted the last hand, it is 16.02%. All results based on simulations. Game rules 6D, H17, DAS, DOA, RS4, RSA2, cut card at 62 cards from bottom.
Last edited by: ssho88 on Apr 15, 2020
April 15th, 2020 at 8:00:23 AM
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Quote: GManUsing CVCX by QFIT, you will get a Hi/Lo count of +2 or more about 17.3% of the time. This is for a 80% penetration on a 6 decks game with the TC floored.
This is based on a 2,000,000,000 (2 billions) simulated rounds of BJ.
Not even a fifth of the time. If you're a backcounter, better be okay with standing for your feet for hours lmao
